The difference between handicapping college football and NFL is with college you?re looking at which team will win the game, while in the pros you?re trying to figure out which team will lose the game.
Case in point this week?s NFL schedule. Here we find such matchups as Lions-Browns, Bills-Raiders, Ravens-Bears and Titans-Cardinals. It doesn?t say much for Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore and Tennessee that all four are underdogs to teams who have a combined 6-14 record.
?Whoever is handicapping NFL, good luck,? said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. ?It?s tough. I know we?re struggling with the NFL right now.?
If professional oddsmakers are having a tough time making NFL numbers in mid-October then you know it?s been a strange season. Bookmakers have been doing well in colleges this season, but have had some bad Sundays, including this past one.
Bettors are going to stay far away from the Texans, Vikings and 49ers. The Colts could be laying a record number against the Texans for a road team coming off a Monday night game. Who would touch the Texans after their gutless 42-10 thrashing to the Seahawks on national television Sunday night?
Speaking of the Seahawks, they may be playing the best of any team the last couple of weeks despite losing their starting wide receivers. Yet Seattle is only a three-point home favorite against the Cowboys. This is a cheap price.
?There are so many Dallas followers,? Seba said in defense of the books having Seattle favored by just a field goal.
If Dallas can get up for this road game after winning two straight division home games against the Eagles and Giants, then Bill Parcells is truly a motivational genius. It doesn?t help however, that Dallas is giving up an average of 24.6 points on the road ? twice as many compared to home games (12.3) - and is playing on the West Coast for the third time in five weeks.
Seba disagrees with the Bears being a slight home favorite. He made the Ravens minus-2 against Chicago.
?I think the Ravens turned it around this week,? he said.
The Ravens-Bears matchup illustrates the play-not-to-lose theory of NFL handicapping. The Bears start a mistake-prone rookie at quarterback, Kyle Orton, and have been without two key starters on the offensive line ? tackle John Tait and guard Ruben Brown ? for the past two weeks. Chicago?s defense is good, but not as good as Baltimore?s.
All the Ravens have to do to win is keep their poise, have quarterback Anthony Wright properly manage the game and keep penalties to a minimum. Sounds simple, right? It wasn?t two weeks ago when the Ravens traveled to Detroit and lost by 18 points against an inferior Lions squad because they failed to do any of the above.
Seba is most surprised by the early line movement in the Chiefs-Dolphins game. Some places opened Kansas City as a 1 ?-point favorite, but by Monday afternoon the Dolphins were the favorite at either 1, 1 ? or 2, depending on the book.
?We all had Kansas City at minus-2 ? or 3,? Seba said about the oddsmakers at LVSC, who supply the betting number to numerous hotels in Nevada. ?Now the Dolphins are as high as 2. It?s a play against the Chiefs because they were lucky to beat the Redskins.
?But I can?t understand the Dolphins being the favorite. What have they done? If this were the beginning of the season, Kansas City would be minus-7.?
Apparently a lot of bettors are enamored with new Miami head coach Nick Saban. The Dolphins have been bet a lot this season, including Sunday when their 4 ?-point underdog tag against the Buccaneers fell down a point to plus 3. That, along with the Falcons-Saints, was one of the few games bookmakers won Sunday.
The Chiefs aren?t getting much respect, at least with the early money. But do they deserve it? Kansas City?s defense still looks bad, the passing attack has produced just four touchdowns and Trent Green has yet to pass for more than 237 yards in a single game. On top of everything else, Sunday marks the Chiefs? first road game in four weeks with division rival San Diego up the following week.
Bookmakers had not qualms making the Giants a 1 ?-point home favorite against the 5-1 Broncos. By Monday afternoon, New York had been bet up to minus 2.
?If you?re going to play the Giants it would be at home,? Seba said. ?They?re not a very good road team. Some of these teams are completely different on the road.?
The Giants, for instance, are averaging 37.6 points in three games at Giants Stadium, compared to the 18 points they average on the road. The Broncos, despite their lofty won-lost record, have actually been out-gained on the season.
Case in point this week?s NFL schedule. Here we find such matchups as Lions-Browns, Bills-Raiders, Ravens-Bears and Titans-Cardinals. It doesn?t say much for Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore and Tennessee that all four are underdogs to teams who have a combined 6-14 record.
?Whoever is handicapping NFL, good luck,? said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. ?It?s tough. I know we?re struggling with the NFL right now.?
If professional oddsmakers are having a tough time making NFL numbers in mid-October then you know it?s been a strange season. Bookmakers have been doing well in colleges this season, but have had some bad Sundays, including this past one.
Bettors are going to stay far away from the Texans, Vikings and 49ers. The Colts could be laying a record number against the Texans for a road team coming off a Monday night game. Who would touch the Texans after their gutless 42-10 thrashing to the Seahawks on national television Sunday night?
Speaking of the Seahawks, they may be playing the best of any team the last couple of weeks despite losing their starting wide receivers. Yet Seattle is only a three-point home favorite against the Cowboys. This is a cheap price.
?There are so many Dallas followers,? Seba said in defense of the books having Seattle favored by just a field goal.
If Dallas can get up for this road game after winning two straight division home games against the Eagles and Giants, then Bill Parcells is truly a motivational genius. It doesn?t help however, that Dallas is giving up an average of 24.6 points on the road ? twice as many compared to home games (12.3) - and is playing on the West Coast for the third time in five weeks.
Seba disagrees with the Bears being a slight home favorite. He made the Ravens minus-2 against Chicago.
?I think the Ravens turned it around this week,? he said.
The Ravens-Bears matchup illustrates the play-not-to-lose theory of NFL handicapping. The Bears start a mistake-prone rookie at quarterback, Kyle Orton, and have been without two key starters on the offensive line ? tackle John Tait and guard Ruben Brown ? for the past two weeks. Chicago?s defense is good, but not as good as Baltimore?s.
All the Ravens have to do to win is keep their poise, have quarterback Anthony Wright properly manage the game and keep penalties to a minimum. Sounds simple, right? It wasn?t two weeks ago when the Ravens traveled to Detroit and lost by 18 points against an inferior Lions squad because they failed to do any of the above.
Seba is most surprised by the early line movement in the Chiefs-Dolphins game. Some places opened Kansas City as a 1 ?-point favorite, but by Monday afternoon the Dolphins were the favorite at either 1, 1 ? or 2, depending on the book.
?We all had Kansas City at minus-2 ? or 3,? Seba said about the oddsmakers at LVSC, who supply the betting number to numerous hotels in Nevada. ?Now the Dolphins are as high as 2. It?s a play against the Chiefs because they were lucky to beat the Redskins.
?But I can?t understand the Dolphins being the favorite. What have they done? If this were the beginning of the season, Kansas City would be minus-7.?
Apparently a lot of bettors are enamored with new Miami head coach Nick Saban. The Dolphins have been bet a lot this season, including Sunday when their 4 ?-point underdog tag against the Buccaneers fell down a point to plus 3. That, along with the Falcons-Saints, was one of the few games bookmakers won Sunday.
The Chiefs aren?t getting much respect, at least with the early money. But do they deserve it? Kansas City?s defense still looks bad, the passing attack has produced just four touchdowns and Trent Green has yet to pass for more than 237 yards in a single game. On top of everything else, Sunday marks the Chiefs? first road game in four weeks with division rival San Diego up the following week.
Bookmakers had not qualms making the Giants a 1 ?-point home favorite against the 5-1 Broncos. By Monday afternoon, New York had been bet up to minus 2.
?If you?re going to play the Giants it would be at home,? Seba said. ?They?re not a very good road team. Some of these teams are completely different on the road.?
The Giants, for instance, are averaging 37.6 points in three games at Giants Stadium, compared to the 18 points they average on the road. The Broncos, despite their lofty won-lost record, have actually been out-gained on the season.
