Week 7 Plays - 20-9 ATS (69%) on the year....

[3rd & 30]

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Kansas State Wildcats - (-3.5)


I can?t really figure this one out, TAMU has been really bad this year with double digit losses to Oklahoma State and Miami, giving up 97 pts in those 2 games. Against the balance of their schedule (Arkansas St, New Mexico, and Army) they are only 1-2 (averaging only 22 pts in those games). Kansas State is very good offensively; averaging 40+ ppg & 400 ypg+ this season, and should really pour it on a poor TAMU defense. KSU doesn?t have any overwhelming situational or statistical advantages on offense, but I am certain they will get tons of yardages and points, and should be good for at least what Miami and OSU (both of which aren?t as good offensively as KSU). My projections call for right at 40 pts and 400 yards (using A&Ms entire season worth of defensive statistics), with just the OSU & Miami games that pushes closer to 500 and 45-50 pts.



KSU?s defense has been pretty bad lately, allowing 500+ ypg and 42 ppg the last 3 games (vs Louisville, UL-L, and Texas Tech). Statistically KSUs defense isn?t too bad, and is actually better than average defending the rush (+0.5 ypr). I can?t see an A&M defense that is only averaging 319 ypg and doesn?t statistically excel at any component on offense exploiting the woes of late for KSU, particularly when they haven?t been able to do it vs a similarly poor slate of defenses this season. My math calls for 340 yards offense (5.0 yppl) and 23-28 points. Our models are all in that same neighborhood (21-28), so I feel pretty good about that projection (particularly given TAMU hasn?t eclipsed 28 yet, but has scored in the 20s every game). I?ll lay the FG on the road, getting the way better offense and the lesser of two evils on defense. Kansas State 37 TAMU 25 ? KSU is a #3 Recommended play at -3.5.

 

[3rd & 30]

Purdue Boilermakers (+18.5)


OSU hasn?t beat anyone this year by more than 19 pts (other than Youngstown State), and has only eclipsed more than 30 once (vs Minnesota which was helped by 3 Minny TOs). Purdue?s defense isn?t great (allowing 5.5 yypl), but certainly good enough to keep an ok OSU offense (averaging 5.3 yypl) close, certainly within 3 scores. OSU does have a statistical advantage running the football (1.0 ypr) which I think is actually an ok thing, as Tressell will be well aware of that and most likely will be content to pound it out on the ground. My projections call for 395 yards offense (218 on the ground on 41 carries), and 21-27 points. My models call for 24 -31 points with about 60% weighted closer to the 30, even on the high side, you are effectively betting the OSU defense can hold Purdue to under 10 (which only PSU has done this year), and on the low side (24 pts for Ohio St) OSU?s defense has to basically pitch a shut out.



Purdue?s offense is about equal to OSUs (ave 5.3 yypl compared to 5.4 yppl for OSU), although OSUs defense is far better than Purdue?s (OSUs defense is only allowing 4.4 yppl and 264 ypg). That advantage will be enough for OSU to win the game, as my projections call for Purdue to only get 304 yards offense at 4.3 yppl and 16 points. My models are all in the same neighborhood with 16-21 points. Laying 19 is just way too much here, particularly when a superior offense (PSU) barely scored 20 on this same defense the week before. Purdue 16 Ohio State 28. Purdue is a #3 Recommended play at +18.5.

 

[3rd & 30]

Oklahoma State University (+14)

If you like offense this is the game for you, as these two teams have combined to average 106 ppg & 1099ypg! I suppose you can say Missouri is the better offense as they are averaing 1.0 ppg, 30 ypg, and 0.5 yppl better than OSU, but with these type numbers that seems a little senseless to me. Oddly enough, as similar as the offenses are, the defenses are about the same as well, both allowing 4.8 yppl and 20 & 23 ppg (although Mizzou has done it vs offenses 0.8 yppl better than OSUs). OSU has been better statistically running and passing, but Mizzou has the better match up advantages vs the run, with OSU having the better match up advantage in the air. Still with these offense, I think that is cutting some hairs (is 11.6 ypa better than 10.6 or a +3.8 ypa and +0.5 yppl advantage better than a +2.0 ypr and +1.5 yppl?). The gist is that both offenses are great and gave very good (but different) statistical advantages in this game



My projections call for Mizzou to have more success on the ground (6.1 ypr to 3.7 ypr), OSU to perform better in the air (10.9 ypa to 8.1 ypa) and for Mizzou to have a slight edge in total yards and yppl (Mizzou ? 524 @ 7.3 yppl compared to 461 & 6.4 yppl for OSU). My projections call for a 48-41 Mizzou win. My models have 31-42 for OSU (split 50-50 with 31/32 and 40-42). The models have Mizzou spread from 35-48. Variance that large on both sides scare me, particularly with scores this high, as the conversion ratios of yards / pts and TD /FG become paramount as these teams should move into scoring position on 60-80% of their possessions. Still I can?t see a discernable difference in the offenses or defenses, and am not sure this game won?t go down to the last couple possessions. I guess easiest way to say it is, I?ll take a team averaging 52 ppg getting 13 points vs an average defense, regardless of how good the opponents offense is (which in this case is probably one of two in the nation that is actually better), the cynics would say OSU isn?t even the best offense in its state?which should scare the Longhorn fans this week. Oklahoma State 37 Missouri 43 ? OSU is a 4 recommended play at +14.

 

[3rd & 30]

Tulane (+4)


I think the scoreboard the last couple weeks have given us a lot of line value here, as there is no way UTEP should be favored here. Tulane lost last week to Army, dispite outgaining them 486-334 yards, 4 Tulane TOs doomed them in a game in which they clearly outplayed a pitiful Army offense. UTEP has scored 98 points the last 2 weeks, even thought they averaged less than 400 ypg in those 2 games, being the benefactor of 7 TOs in those 2 games vs UCF and Southern Miss. Tulane has been pretty good on offense this year, and it was only last week with the 4 TOs that they haven?t scored more than 24 points (Alabama notwithstanding). UTEPs defense is allowing 32 ppg and 426 ypg (6.2 yppl) this year, and has only held one team to under 30 (in which UCF turned it over 6 times).



On paper, Tulane has the better offenses, the better defense, and the only real meaningful stituational advantage (a +0.7 ypa advantage in the air). My projections call for a 440-320 total offense advantage for Tulane, and 27-30 points for Tulane. My models are all in the same area with 27-31. All my projections and math call for about the same for UTEP (24-30), but if you balance out the impact of the TOs disparity (inflating UTEP and deflating Tulane?s normalized projected performance) things start to separate and resemble scoring ranges more consistent with the yardage projections (Tulane wins 32-21). Tulane 30 UTEP 27 ? Tulane is a # 4 recommended play at +4

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

:sadwave:

 

[3rd & 30]

Nebraska (+21)


I think Mizzou?s dismantling of Nebraska last week has inflated this line a little too much. Nebraska isn?t so bad on offense, and absent last week hasn?t been held to under 30. Nebraska is averaging 411 ypg (including 6.5 yppl to good defenses that are otherwise allowing only 5.1 yppl), including Nebraska averaging 9.0 ypa in the air. TTUs defense is pretty good, allowing only 4.7 yppl, but have only really been tested once, last week to KSU. They performed very well vs KSU allowing only 28 pts (KSU is averaging 43 ppg), but vs a Nebraska team that should have decent success on offense (my projections call for 413 yards and 6.1 yppl), including 8.4 ypa (with a +1.6 ypa advantage) I can?t see how you lay 21 here. I like the fact that Nebraska has a match up advantage when they pass as they?ll need it to keep up with Texas Tech. My scoring ranges call for 24-30 for Neb, and my models are pretty much right on top of that with 26-36. Getting 21, worse case is TTU can?t get to 45, best case 58.


TTU is going to get their?s, but I question what value there is in betting they get to 58 vs 45, if even 45 at all. TTU is averaging 500+ ypg and 48ppg, but that has been to a pretty abysmal slate of defenses, the best of which (Kansas St) is still allowing 400+ and 29 ppg. Neb?s defense actually matches up pretty well with TTU and TTU?s pass O is actually a statistical draw with Nebs pass D (both +0.5ypa). My projections call for 6.9 yppl for Mizzou which should be good for probably 500 yards offense and 35-44 points (our models have 36-47). I?ll take the big dog who should hang 400 yards, has the advantage passing (which is their preference), and has a defense set up to defend what the home team wants to do (pass). It will probably be scary and gut-wrenching at times, but at the end I think this thing won?t get out of hand. Nebraska 29 TTU 42 ? Nebraska is a # 4 recommended play at +21.

 

[3rd & 30]

Ball State (-16.5)


As we mentioned earlier this season WKU has made the jump from D1AA to the big leagues, after playing a half & half schedule last season. Last season they played 7 D1AA teams and 5 DI teams (all SBC teams where they joined this season), not surprisingly they were 7-5, although about half the SBC games where competitive. This season they made the jump full time, and it has showed. In 4 games thus far vs D1 teams they have struggled mightily averaging only 9 ppg & 212 ypg including only one game above 250 yards. While Ball State?s defense is no Alabama or Virginia Tech, it is respectable allowing only 5.3 yppl (+0.4 yppl) and should be plenty good enough to keep a still outmanned WKU offense from doing much at all. Even using the entire season statistics for WKU I come up with a projection of just 320 yards and 12 points; using just the D1 games that is diminished down to 245 and 7. All our models are pretty clustered around the 13-18 range which is on the conservative side of the total season analysis.


Ball State still appears to be under-rated, particularly on offense, where they are averaging 479 ypg (6.9 yppl and +1.0 yppl) and 39 ppg vs a pretty decent slate of defensive teams that are allowing only 5.9 yppl. WKU in their 4 D1 games this season is allowing 424 ypg & 35 ppg, which actually is better than it should be as 2 of those games are to pretty poor offensive teams Kentucky and Virginia Tech (add to that the letdown situation UK was in going into that game). Ball State is by far the best offensive team WKU has faced and I suspect they will do as well (if not better) than Bama?s 41pt / 557 yard outing. In fact using the entire season of WKU defensive statistics, my projections call for 523 yards offense and 41 pts, laying only 15 that is good enough for me in a game where I think we have all the upside, and a very good chance of 50. Ball State 43 WKU 18 ? Ball State is a 4 recommended play at -16.5.

 

[3rd & 30]

Toledo (+16.5)


Toledo has looked pretty bad the last two weeks losing to FIU & Ball State by a combined 16-66 margin, but despite that recent history Toledo actually matches up pretty well vs an improving Michigan team. There is no denying the growing pains Richie Rods has had installing his run oriented spread offense at Michigan thus far, where they are averaging only 292 ypg (4.6 yppl) and only 3.6 ypr (by contrast WVU this year is averaging 5.7 ypr), and perhaps even more telling is the near 50-50 run pass ratio RR has had to employ this year. Toledo, despite the scoreboard, is actually ok on defense, particularly vs the run where they are +0.3 ypr this season, that puts Michigan at a -0.6 ypr disadvantage in the department they clearly would like to exploit. My math projections call for only 3.6 ypr for Michigan. Michigan is not very good passing the ball (5.6 ypa at -0.9 ypa), and gets an average Toledo defense defending that pass (Toledo is allowing 7.7 ypa but that is to pretty good teams that average 7.6 ypa so they are about average). All in all WVU has a -0.9 yppl disadvantage, and my projections call for only 4.7 yppl for only 316 yards total offense. My math and models have scoring projections of 29-34 points for Michigan, which is extremely high for a low 300 yardage production, but both these teams have combined for 25 total turnovers this game, so I suspect both teams will be the beneficiary of some point erasing TOs and short field scoring possessions off Turnovers. Holding Ball State to 31 points on 480 yards offense last week is actually a pretty fair accomplishment for Toledo, and I can?t see where Michigan will perform at anywhere near the level of Ball State.



Toledo has been pretty average on offense (5.1 yppl to teams that allow 5.2 yppl), but that is mostly because of a weak pass O that is only averaging 5.5 ypa. That scares me a little here, as Michigan?s rush D is very good (allowing only 2.7 ypr which is 1.2 ypr better than the average of the offenses they?ve faced), which puts Toledo at a -1.1 ypr disadvantage. My projections call for only 3.1 ypr and 4.7 yppl (327 yards total), and my guess is that inability to run on the road will make an already weak passing team even weaker. Still with both teams at decided offensive disadvantages, both teams projected to average the same 4.7 yppl, in a game where both teams should struggle to run the football and have very weak passing games, getting 17 points doesn?t look so bad. The dislocation between the offensive production for Michigan (which was pretty similar in all our models) and their projected score gives me a little concern, but at the same time produces some upside as about 50% of our models have 23-25 points for Michigan which is more in line with the yardage production. In a statistical coin flip, I can?t pass up 17 points, even if it is with a down and out of late Toledo team with out much offensive firepower. Toledo 21 Michigan 30 ? Toledo is a #4 recommended play at +16.5

 

[3rd & 30]

:sadwave:

Come again??