Week 8 NFL

[Nick Douglas]

17-17, -40

Five big doggies for this week. As always comments and questions are appreciated, and I will answer all of them. Good luck.

Detroit PK +258 over BUFFALO 2*

Mainly a play against the public. After beating Miami handily the Bills are favorites by a far larger margin than they have been all season. That is generally a great spot for a fade and with Detroit coming off the big win over Chicago, I like the play even more.

CAROLINA PK +279 over Tampa Bay 2*

A severe public overreaction to Carolina?s struggles lately offensively. They still have a stellar defense which will absolutely kill that awful Tampa offensive line. Also a play under the angle Perpetual Czech posted some time ago of taking the dog to win outright when getting more than 7 points with a total under 36 1/2.

CINCINNATI PK +194 over Tennessee 2*

Great spot for the Bengals to get their first win. They are coming off their bye week and they are at home against a Titans team that has a gigantic intradivisional game next week at Indy to worry about. In preseason I had the Bengals tabbed as a very talented team and I still believe in that. They just need Kitna to make a few plays and they need their defensive stars like Smith and Spikes to play up to their ability.

Arizona PK +286 over SAN FRANCISCO 2*

Basically playing the better team here. San Francisco is a mediocre team defensively and with the Arizona backfield getting healthy, they should run wild on the Niners all day. Obviously this is a statement game for the Cards. They have given up the third fewest points in the NFL and they have the offensive line and talent at skill positions to win this divison.

Giants PK +258 over PHILADELPHIA 2*

Last year the Giants basically controlled Philly on Monday night and failed to execute at key times in a low scoring loss. This year the Giants have weapons galore. Collins has always excelled against blitz-happy defenses and few are more fond of sending men than Philadelphia. The other gigantic key is that the Giants defensive line can bring heat without blitzing, which limits McNabb?s chances of hurting the Giants on the ground.

 

[Yarj]

Arizona?

Arizona?

I'm a huge Plummer fan and I've watched all of their games this year. I just don't see how the Cardinals are going to be able to keep up with San Francisco's offense. SF is starting to play better, and have alot riding on this game. How can Arizona's defense control the line against Barlow, and what about Sharpe getting open? I see the 49'ers making a statement in this game, and Arizona once again taking on the role of goat.


Just one opinion,

 

[Nick Douglas]

San Francisco's impressive ground performances have largely come against weak rush defenses and I like Arizona against the rush. Arizona will certainly be able to run a lot on San Francisco. I think there is no question about that. Another fact I failed to write up initially is that the Cards basically had their let down game last week with that poor performance against Dallas. Don't judge the Cards by that game. They are a surprisingly complete team and I really think they are better all around than the Niners.

 

[vanbasten]

nick,

az, cinn and detroit wouldn't surprise me, carolina and the giants would.

as you say in the carolina game, i see a severe public overreaction to the gmen on monday night. everyone knows the troubles philly has had with ny over the last few, including myself. a huge part of that problem was strahan's dominance. can't look at one man making all the difference, but it has almost been that way for this matchup. he's not on form, and the birds know this. first gut reaction was the number was too high. after looking at it, birds dominate this game defensively, and once again, stake claim as the team to beat in the nfc. i can't see the giants scoring over 10, and i see the birds putting up at least 17. hope i am right about all i said. if so, you profit and the birds win.

good luck.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nick:

Always look forward to your posts. You take a stand and back it up w/ insights. Can always respect that.

1) Haven't watched all their gms, but do you think Tampa's OLine is improving? Or not? They were dismantled by NewOrleans in season opener, but was my feeling that their offensive chemistry has been better since. You think Peppers et al have a nice day, eh?

2) Tend to agree on Arizona. Nice percentage play, although I'm not ready to say they are the better team.

3) Not sure I could back Giants on the ML. Eagle defense continues to excel. Giants would have to win a 16-13 type of gm to cash imo, and I can't see McNabb being bottled up quite that much.

GL, Nick. If you hit 2 or more out of these 5, should be a nice day for you.

 

[Senor Capper]

I also like 'Zona

I also like 'Zona

Great road team
Arizona is 7-1 ATS last 8 games on the road.

 

[3fingerstony]

Can't argue with any of your rationale, but sure hopeyou don't have a perfect week. I am on the opposite side of EVERY SINGLE ONE of those games. Do you just ride 'the dogs' all the time, or is this just an unusual week in your opinion??

 

[jmizeus]

boy u have some huge cahones there -nick!
gl-but as far as my bills- true bills are in a dangerous situation vs lions with huge win and then a posible look ahead next wek vs patsys. but i disagree on the lions being in a better situation with there big win last week. first it was a big win vs divisional opponent and then count in the overtime! now they have to travel to buffalo-who has yet to put anyone away yet.--bills big! but gl

 

[Riskbreaker]

yeah moneylines i like em

on cincinnati myself and on baltimore. some european books do not seem to be as sharp as offshores concerning moneylines. soccer bettors (europeans) tend to play or parlay BIG moneyline favs so the books adjust apart from spread.

CIN +210 100$
BAL +125 100$

2-4 +30$

GL Nick :thumb:

 

[Nick Douglas]

Sorry about the late reply. So far one really tough loss with Cincy. I thought that looked like a score. Thing about that play is that Bengals players have been screaming to the press about the bad turf at that stadium and then the pulling guard slips and falls on it in Dillon's way in the key play of the game. Oh well, win some, you lose some.

Nick