Week 8 Picks

[GM]

Last Week: 2-4-1, -2.35 units
Overall: 36-31-1, +3.8 units
All plays are for 1 unit unless stated otherwise

Well that was a kick in the teeth. Favorites (9-4-1) and Unders (9-5) stormed back last week. There are gonna be weeks like this. I had a feeling we were due for a weekend of chalk covers. So it goes. There should be some value in betting Unders now. Totals are through the roof on most games, except for games which involve TB, Car, Hou, Dal, Ariz, NYG and maybe a couple of other teams.

One early play so far:

Tampa Bay -6? -112 (bought a half point off the 7 @ Carib's -102 Tuesdays): The Panthers' bubble has burst. Their three early-season wins are now looking pretty hollow. Since then they have regressed every week, at first losing close ones, now losing bigger. I'd put Carolina in the bottom third of the league in terms of overall quality now. Tampa Bay has shown no mercy against the league's weaker teams, completely shutting down soft opponents. Coming off a tough, physical loss last week @ Philly, I'm looking for the Bucs to get back on track. Injuries to Brad Johnson and Keenan McCardell make this pick look risky, but good teams step it up when key personnel are hurt, as I believe the case will be here. I look for TB to run a simplified offence, and for the defence to just keep on doing what it's done all year.

Also considering Carolina single-team total Under 13, but it's not a bet yet.

 

[3fingerstony]

I love the pick. Fasani didn't look ready for the NFL against Atlanta's "D". Bucs will throw everything at him. I fully expect TBay's Defense to cover this line on their own. ALthough I wouldn't have confidence in Rob Johnson in a 'big game' I think that he will help Tampa to open up the offense just a little bit. They do have a lot of problems there. Some players don't respond to Gruden's "in your face" style. Pittman looked lost against Philly - no confidence at all. No speed at WR is a HUGE handicap in the NFL, & Jurevicius for McCardell will not help. The UNDER is a solid play here.
I also like Jax Jags by at least 2 TDs
Niners bought down to 6.5.
Steelers by a TD.
Oak/KC over by 14.

Good luck.

 

[no all]

good luck this week

 

[DjGuey]

Bills/Lions

Bills/Lions

If you can, take the over on the Lions/Bills game. It's going to be a very high scoring game, neither team has a very good defense.

I'd also take that Carolina pick, sounds good to me.

 

[GM]

Thanks for the feedback everyone.

Adding two:

Cleveland +3?: Going to wait to see if I can get +3?, probably won't but who knows. Strong numbers play here. Jets type of offensive and defensive stats match very closely to the teams Cleveland has beaten already. The numbers are pretty clear... Browns can't handle good defensive teams but feast on weak D. Unless NYJ drastically improved their D somehow on their bye week, then they fall into this category (NYJ DID show some improvement last week, so maybe it's possible). On the Jets side...NY has scored big three times this year. In every case though it was against a horrid defence (Buf, KC, Minn). Whenever they have played anybody with average or better D, they've been held to 7 points or less. Cleveland's defensive numbers are pretty good, though I'd be surprised if they hold the Jets THAT low. Jets are also coming off back-to-back games vs horrible D, and when stepping up to play much better D that usually spells trouble.

Carolina single-team total Under 13? -115: I'm trying to figure out how the Panthers are going to score here. Maybe on special teams? (I hope not!) Carolina is in a real tailspin, and this is not the opponent you want to meet when you're faltering. Bucs off a hard loss against a tough team. Carolina offence has dried up completely, and they have really struggled when playing vs good D. Well, this D is the best. Bucs have played against a number of weak offences this year and completely shut them down. These things don't always work out, but it's hard to see why it won't. Helps to have TB off a loss and a game off the division lead I think, so they should be focused and not taking this game for granted.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

GL tomorrow

 

[GM]

Thanks Anthony.

Ok, been studying all night long and my eyes are bloodshot and I just wanna go to bed!! Saw so many picks early in the week that I liked, but after further review some of them look iffy now. So close to pulling the trigger on about 3-4 plays more than what is listed here. Good thing we get an extra hour of sleep tonight. Anyways...

Adding:

Chicago/Minnesota Over 44?: Vikes should snap back after their worst offensive output of the year. Comfortable on the carpet and facing a weak secondary. Bears should be able to score enough to put this over the number. I thought this total would be 47ish, but both teams have been a bit inconsistent on O, so I guess the total is a bit lower. Impossible for me to pick a side between these two losers. Looks like a 30-23 type game or higher to me, but who wins? I don't know.

Arizona +8?: Will probably go higher but I decided to lock it in now. Cards strength is their D, keeping them close in most games. They will be tested here but I think they have what it takes to at the very least stay close. Niners have been racking up the points against weak to very weak defence and this squad could give them more trouble than usual. A little concerned that Arizona hasn't played too many quality opponents, but this is quite a few points and appears to be the sharp side. Betting 'Zona is always an adventure it seems.

Detroit/Buffalo Over 49: DjGuey will be pleased that I am on his pick. Seriously though, it looks good. Detroit may be a bad team, but their offence has been clicking for most of the season, scoring fewer than 21 only once this year. Neither D can stop anything. And of course the Bills have weapons, weapons, weapons. Main concern here is maybe it's letdown time for the Bills. Sandwich game, before NE and after a big win @ Mia. This game must look like cake to them. Hopefully they don't come out sloppy. A play on Detroit is possible because of this potential for lack of focus, but I will just go with the Over for now.

 

[GM]

Confirming:

Cleveland +3? (finally got my half point)

 

[GM]

Adding:

Detroit +8: Bills have only won by 8+ once this year (LW @ Mia). Sandwich game for Buf, after Mia and before NE. Lions improving, definitely have the ability to score, and should be comfortable playing an up-tempo high-scoring game. Detroit has been within a TD at the very least each of the past 4 weeks.

 

[GM]

Adding:

Tennessee/Cincinnati Over 41?: Not much defence in this game. By far the weakest defence the Bengals have faced this year. Both teams should be capable of moving the ball.

 

[GM]

Added:

Denver ML +140

 

[GM]

For the day: 5-4, up 1 unit.

Adding:

Indy/Washington Under 47: The total has gotten high enough that I can't pass up the Under here. Washington has played against a number of good offences in recent weeks. This offence (Indy) ranks as the worst they have seen since the start of the year. This ~should~ mean the Skins give up fewer points than normal. Wash has had a few high-totaling games, but only against teams like New Orleans who go Over against everyone. Indy's defence is actually not bad & getting better as the season progresses. Washington of course is going thru hell at the QB position. If they're smart they will hand the ball to Steven Davis and try to chew up some clock. Can't say for sure which team wins the game, but I feel all this adds up to a good chance that at least one team struggles offensively, which should be good enough to go Under.

Also comforting to know that the Over is a public pick by more than a 2:1 margin.

 

[GM]

Pushed last night, so now 5-4-1 for the week and still up 1 unit.

Adding:

Philly -6?: I don't like laying this many pts, but I am ok with it here. Both teams have faced a series of good defences recently. However, NYG has been facing mostly weak offences and now face one of the best. Philly is going up against one of the weaker offences they have seen in a while. Giants have yet to beat a good team this year. This just looks to be too tough a test for a Giants team that in my opinion is not very good.

Good luck all.