The plays had their first losing week in a while last week. They'd been pretty hot for about 3 weeks prior, so I guess it was bound to happen.
Djv - I saw your replies in last week's thread, but wanted to answer here. I'm going to hold off on putting in systems that haven't been tracked in such a long time. Systems quite often stop working over time, and if it hasn't been tracked since 1983, there's a good chance it's dead by now. As it is I don't like the fact that some of these systems haven't been updated for a year or two...and in some cases researching those records could be a very laborious task, not easy to look up.
Ok, here's what we have in play for Week #8. Lots of Cinci, New Orleans & San Diego. (Personally I really don't like New Orleans or San Diego this week, and won't bet them). Also some conflicting systems on the Jax/Tenn & Buf/KC games. Don't follow these blindly, just use them as another thing to consider when handicapping a game. Always think.
I definitely do not play them all.
System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).
Play on: Cincinnati (if they are the dog), New Orleans (if they become the dog).
System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89).
Play on: Kansas City
System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).
Play on: New Orleans (if they stay -1 to -3)
System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (39-23-1, 62.9% since '98). **updated**
Play on: St Louis (if dog), Houston
System #9 - Play on the home dog on Monday Night football (58-36, 61.7% since '83).
Play on: San Diego
System #12 - Play on a Monday Night home team that was on the road last week if their opponent was at home last week (84-46-2, 64.6% since '80).
Play on: San Diego
System #15 - Play against a team that lost last week, after a 4+ game winning streak, and is now on the road (32-11, 74.4% since 1980).
Play on: New Orleans, San Diego
System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (25-3, 89.3% since start of '02, including 14-2, 87.5% when the team in question was favored on the road). **updated**
Play on: Cincinnati (if dog)
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 51-83-5, 61.9% Unders --- O/U 25-44-3, 63.8% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**
Play the Under on the games involving: Denver, Tennessee, Dallas, NY Jets
System #19 - Play the Under when the home team is favored by 3 or less, and had a bye last week (15-0 for Unders since '98). **updated**
Play the Under on: StL/Pitt (if Pitt is favored by -1 to -3)
System #19a - Play the Under when the home team is favored, coming off their bye week (38-22-1, 63.3% since '98). **updated**
Play the Under on: StL/Pitt (if Pitt is favored), Hou/Indy
System #24 - Play on the home underdog when both teams have winning records, or both teams have losing records (~70% since ???)
Play on: Arizona
System #27 - Play against a road fav off a SU win but ATS loss. (12-1 ATS, 92.3% since '02) (same as System #16 except this must be a road fav) **updated**
Play on: Cincinnati (if dog)
System #31 - Play on home dogs of 7 pts or less who allow 4.5 yds/play or less. (14-5 ATS, 73.6% since '92) **updated**
Play on: Pittsburgh (if they become the dog)
System #33 - Play against a road favorite which allows less than 4.5 yds/play (40-20, 66.7% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Cincinnati (if dog)
System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: NY Giants
System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, NY Giants, Houston
System #37 - Play on a road team that has a bye the following week (16-6-1, 72.7% since '02). **updated**
Play on: Cleveland, Tennessee, Buffalo
Good luck.
Djv - I saw your replies in last week's thread, but wanted to answer here. I'm going to hold off on putting in systems that haven't been tracked in such a long time. Systems quite often stop working over time, and if it hasn't been tracked since 1983, there's a good chance it's dead by now. As it is I don't like the fact that some of these systems haven't been updated for a year or two...and in some cases researching those records could be a very laborious task, not easy to look up.
Ok, here's what we have in play for Week #8. Lots of Cinci, New Orleans & San Diego. (Personally I really don't like New Orleans or San Diego this week, and won't bet them). Also some conflicting systems on the Jax/Tenn & Buf/KC games. Don't follow these blindly, just use them as another thing to consider when handicapping a game. Always think.
I definitely do not play them all.System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).
Play on: Cincinnati (if they are the dog), New Orleans (if they become the dog).
System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89).
Play on: Kansas City
System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).
Play on: New Orleans (if they stay -1 to -3)
System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (39-23-1, 62.9% since '98). **updated**
Play on: St Louis (if dog), Houston
System #9 - Play on the home dog on Monday Night football (58-36, 61.7% since '83).
Play on: San Diego
System #12 - Play on a Monday Night home team that was on the road last week if their opponent was at home last week (84-46-2, 64.6% since '80).
Play on: San Diego
System #15 - Play against a team that lost last week, after a 4+ game winning streak, and is now on the road (32-11, 74.4% since 1980).
Play on: New Orleans, San Diego
System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (25-3, 89.3% since start of '02, including 14-2, 87.5% when the team in question was favored on the road). **updated**
Play on: Cincinnati (if dog)
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 51-83-5, 61.9% Unders --- O/U 25-44-3, 63.8% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**
Play the Under on the games involving: Denver, Tennessee, Dallas, NY Jets
System #19 - Play the Under when the home team is favored by 3 or less, and had a bye last week (15-0 for Unders since '98). **updated**
Play the Under on: StL/Pitt (if Pitt is favored by -1 to -3)
System #19a - Play the Under when the home team is favored, coming off their bye week (38-22-1, 63.3% since '98). **updated**
Play the Under on: StL/Pitt (if Pitt is favored), Hou/Indy
System #24 - Play on the home underdog when both teams have winning records, or both teams have losing records (~70% since ???)
Play on: Arizona
System #27 - Play against a road fav off a SU win but ATS loss. (12-1 ATS, 92.3% since '02) (same as System #16 except this must be a road fav) **updated**
Play on: Cincinnati (if dog)
System #31 - Play on home dogs of 7 pts or less who allow 4.5 yds/play or less. (14-5 ATS, 73.6% since '92) **updated**
Play on: Pittsburgh (if they become the dog)
System #33 - Play against a road favorite which allows less than 4.5 yds/play (40-20, 66.7% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Cincinnati (if dog)
System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: NY Giants
System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, NY Giants, Houston
System #37 - Play on a road team that has a bye the following week (16-6-1, 72.7% since '02). **updated**
Play on: Cleveland, Tennessee, Buffalo
Good luck.
