20-16-2 (+3.13)
Baltimore v. New Orleans unber 37 (2 units @ 1.95)
The strongest, most consistant system ever...plus a mad total to boot!
'unders' as home 3- favs off a bye are gold, but even more so when both teams are off a rest.
League: 1-13 under (av. total 38.5...av. score 30.3) home 3- fav if both teams off a bye. [Balt]
But what's with the total anyway? Baltimore have allowed 0, 6, 14, 13 & 13...and 13 to 3/4 time v. Carolina before allowing 10 late in a very open last quarter.
Their first 5 games av'd 27 total points, and there was 20 at 3/4 time last game.
New Orleans you say?...well, great story. Love Brees. Bush and Duece out of the back field are huge...but wait, they HAVE NOT PLAYED A TEAM IN THE TOP 15 FOR TOTAL DEFENSE!!
Yep, they av 24 ppg, but have played some pretty poor D's. Baltimore are 3rd overall.
The total rose a couple of points on the back of McNair likely starting...sad part is they are so much more likely to score with Boller!
Under, under, under!
I won't make it a 3-unit play, as it goes against all my $ management rules...but I have to say this is the best line I've seen since SD -3 in week 1! (Which I wasn't on!! :mj07: )
Houston @ Tenn under 41.5 (1.95)
Same rule, different game.
League: 3-21 under (av. total 42.6...av. score 34.2) home 3- fav off a BYE, if total > 40! [Tenn]
Houston are in a 2-8 under situation of their own (av. score 33.5) that was 0-1 under last season.
A bit tougher to take this one given the terrible D's of both teams, but scoring can sure be tough.
Tenn have the least amount of offensive TD's this season (5), and before last game had scored just 16, 7, 10, 14 & 13.
Houston av. just 15 ppg on the road and are 6-14-1 under in their last 21 away...
...and strangely enough my numbers show a max of 40 points here!
Jets @ Cleveland over 37.5 (1.96)
League: 12-4 over (Av. total 38.9...av. score 49.8!!) home 3- fav, off a 10+ SU loss as home 7- dog. [Cleve] (2-0 over in 2005)
League: 32-21-2 over (Av. total 36.7...av. score 40.4) away 3- dog off any ats win as home 7- fav, if total <40. [Jets]
9-1 over (av. total 37.3...av. score 49.4!) if opp off a home ats loss. [Cleve]
But, no real trends needed here is there? Jets are an over machine. They deal in TD's (19 td's, 5 fg's for...21-8 against),and as such as 7-0 over this season.
Cleveland av just 14.7 ppg, but have played 3 of the top 5 overall D's!! (and none outside the top 19.) Jets are 30th.
Over, over, over!
Denver v. Indi under 39.5 (1.95)
huh? Broncos? Don't care who they play. Total too high! 6 Denver games this season have av'd 20.5 ppg. It's clear; their D is very, VERY good...and they don't trust Plummer!
They have allowed just TWO td's so far (none at home), and just 5.31 y/pass which is best in the NFL.
Obviously Indi's achilles heal is their run D, and Denver will run, run, run, tick, tock, tick their way thru this one, keeping Manning off the field, and probably wining in a game of FG's.
The total is hugely inflated after last week's shoot-out...but given Washington are 28th in pass D, had 2 of their best 3 DB's out and Spings played at about 50% it was no real surprise.
Forecast is cold. Denver controls this one.
Carolina v. Dallas under 41 (1.95)
League: 3-13 under (av. total 41.5...av. score 38.3) home 7- fav, off a 3- SU loss as away 3- dog, if opp is off any ats loss. [Caro]
Just looks a high total for a Carolina game. 5 of their 7 have gone under this number, and the Baltimore game had 24 points in the last 1/4. (And the NO game had 29 points in the last!!)
I know Dallas have been a little more care-free (literally) in their approach, but surely this is the week they go total conservative after last week INT-fest.
They av. 28 ppg, but have played Wash, Tenn, Philli, Houst & NYG...all in the bottom half for both total D, and scoring allowed. (4 of them in the bottom 11 even)
Minni v. NE under 38.5 (1.95)
Defense. Neither team has allowed over 20 points this season. I played the NE under v. Miami in the theory that they don't score well against good run D's...Minni is no.1 @ 70.8 y/game @ 3.1 y.c.
Minni will stick to what they do best, play good D and run a very uncomplicated, risk adverse offense.
I dunno, the 38.5 number kinda scares me!!...But I just have to see it as a great number.
Teams in focus play to their strengths, and under the Monday Night lights,both teams will be talking up their defense. (with a bit of luck )
Got big trends on Cinci....
League: 12-7-1 (Av. win 10.2) any home fav, off a 3- SU win as home 3- fav. [Cinci] (4-0 in 2005, 1-0 in 2006)
8-0 (Av. win 16.3!!) if opp is off any ats win.
League: 3-10 (Av. loss 10.5) away 7- dog off a 3- SU win as home 3- dog, if opp is off any SU win. [Atl] (1-0 in 2006)
The 2006 result is common to both (Jets 31-24 Det last week)..but still a 17-3 ats trend to Cinci @ -3.5!
I have reservations about Vick and co. running amock on Cinci's run D, but Atlanta's pass D is pretty poor, so Palmer could have a big day...oh dear, Chad Johnson had guarenteed 2 TD's...lord, make of that what you will.
I personally also like Seattle +6.
I a) don't rate the KC D, despite the numbers, given who tey've played.
b) even still, the stats for both teams are SO close....
c) Damon Huard suffered an undisclosed injury in practice Thursday.
Huard was hurt towards the end of the workout and missed the post-practice media session. His status for Week 8 is now in doubt. Rookie Brodie Croyle, who threw two interceptions in mop-up duty against Pittsburgh and was horrid in the preseason, will start if Huard can't play. Heavily downgrade all Chiefs pass catchers this week if Croyle starts. Oct. 26 - 11:53 pm et
Source: Kansas City Star ****
Nearly worth getting on and maybe hedging when the line comes in...as I assume it will.
Good Luck all
**** Thanks tpaine07 . First I'd heard of it. :toast:
Baltimore v. New Orleans unber 37 (2 units @ 1.95)
The strongest, most consistant system ever...plus a mad total to boot!
'unders' as home 3- favs off a bye are gold, but even more so when both teams are off a rest.
League: 1-13 under (av. total 38.5...av. score 30.3) home 3- fav if both teams off a bye. [Balt]
But what's with the total anyway? Baltimore have allowed 0, 6, 14, 13 & 13...and 13 to 3/4 time v. Carolina before allowing 10 late in a very open last quarter.
Their first 5 games av'd 27 total points, and there was 20 at 3/4 time last game.
New Orleans you say?...well, great story. Love Brees. Bush and Duece out of the back field are huge...but wait, they HAVE NOT PLAYED A TEAM IN THE TOP 15 FOR TOTAL DEFENSE!!
Yep, they av 24 ppg, but have played some pretty poor D's. Baltimore are 3rd overall.
The total rose a couple of points on the back of McNair likely starting...sad part is they are so much more likely to score with Boller!
Under, under, under!
I won't make it a 3-unit play, as it goes against all my $ management rules...but I have to say this is the best line I've seen since SD -3 in week 1! (Which I wasn't on!! :mj07: )
Houston @ Tenn under 41.5 (1.95)
Same rule, different game.
League: 3-21 under (av. total 42.6...av. score 34.2) home 3- fav off a BYE, if total > 40! [Tenn]
Houston are in a 2-8 under situation of their own (av. score 33.5) that was 0-1 under last season.
A bit tougher to take this one given the terrible D's of both teams, but scoring can sure be tough.
Tenn have the least amount of offensive TD's this season (5), and before last game had scored just 16, 7, 10, 14 & 13.
Houston av. just 15 ppg on the road and are 6-14-1 under in their last 21 away...
...and strangely enough my numbers show a max of 40 points here!
Jets @ Cleveland over 37.5 (1.96)
League: 12-4 over (Av. total 38.9...av. score 49.8!!) home 3- fav, off a 10+ SU loss as home 7- dog. [Cleve] (2-0 over in 2005)
League: 32-21-2 over (Av. total 36.7...av. score 40.4) away 3- dog off any ats win as home 7- fav, if total <40. [Jets]
9-1 over (av. total 37.3...av. score 49.4!) if opp off a home ats loss. [Cleve]
But, no real trends needed here is there? Jets are an over machine. They deal in TD's (19 td's, 5 fg's for...21-8 against),and as such as 7-0 over this season.
Cleveland av just 14.7 ppg, but have played 3 of the top 5 overall D's!! (and none outside the top 19.) Jets are 30th.
Over, over, over!
Denver v. Indi under 39.5 (1.95)
huh? Broncos? Don't care who they play. Total too high! 6 Denver games this season have av'd 20.5 ppg. It's clear; their D is very, VERY good...and they don't trust Plummer!
They have allowed just TWO td's so far (none at home), and just 5.31 y/pass which is best in the NFL.
Obviously Indi's achilles heal is their run D, and Denver will run, run, run, tick, tock, tick their way thru this one, keeping Manning off the field, and probably wining in a game of FG's.
The total is hugely inflated after last week's shoot-out...but given Washington are 28th in pass D, had 2 of their best 3 DB's out and Spings played at about 50% it was no real surprise.
Forecast is cold. Denver controls this one.
Carolina v. Dallas under 41 (1.95)
League: 3-13 under (av. total 41.5...av. score 38.3) home 7- fav, off a 3- SU loss as away 3- dog, if opp is off any ats loss. [Caro]
Just looks a high total for a Carolina game. 5 of their 7 have gone under this number, and the Baltimore game had 24 points in the last 1/4. (And the NO game had 29 points in the last!!)
I know Dallas have been a little more care-free (literally) in their approach, but surely this is the week they go total conservative after last week INT-fest.
They av. 28 ppg, but have played Wash, Tenn, Philli, Houst & NYG...all in the bottom half for both total D, and scoring allowed. (4 of them in the bottom 11 even)
Minni v. NE under 38.5 (1.95)
Defense. Neither team has allowed over 20 points this season. I played the NE under v. Miami in the theory that they don't score well against good run D's...Minni is no.1 @ 70.8 y/game @ 3.1 y.c.
Minni will stick to what they do best, play good D and run a very uncomplicated, risk adverse offense.
I dunno, the 38.5 number kinda scares me!!...But I just have to see it as a great number.
Teams in focus play to their strengths, and under the Monday Night lights,both teams will be talking up their defense. (with a bit of luck )
Got big trends on Cinci....
League: 12-7-1 (Av. win 10.2) any home fav, off a 3- SU win as home 3- fav. [Cinci] (4-0 in 2005, 1-0 in 2006)
8-0 (Av. win 16.3!!) if opp is off any ats win.
League: 3-10 (Av. loss 10.5) away 7- dog off a 3- SU win as home 3- dog, if opp is off any SU win. [Atl] (1-0 in 2006)
The 2006 result is common to both (Jets 31-24 Det last week)..but still a 17-3 ats trend to Cinci @ -3.5!
I have reservations about Vick and co. running amock on Cinci's run D, but Atlanta's pass D is pretty poor, so Palmer could have a big day...oh dear, Chad Johnson had guarenteed 2 TD's...lord, make of that what you will.
I personally also like Seattle +6.
I a) don't rate the KC D, despite the numbers, given who tey've played.
b) even still, the stats for both teams are SO close....
c) Damon Huard suffered an undisclosed injury in practice Thursday.
Huard was hurt towards the end of the workout and missed the post-practice media session. His status for Week 8 is now in doubt. Rookie Brodie Croyle, who threw two interceptions in mop-up duty against Pittsburgh and was horrid in the preseason, will start if Huard can't play. Heavily downgrade all Chiefs pass catchers this week if Croyle starts. Oct. 26 - 11:53 pm et
Source: Kansas City Star ****
Nearly worth getting on and maybe hedging when the line comes in...as I assume it will.
Good Luck all
**** Thanks tpaine07 . First I'd heard of it. :toast:
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