Week. 9.

[MrChristo]

6-1 last week for a total of 33-14.

Arizona @ Tampa Bay over 37

League: 25-10-1 over (Av. total 39.3...av. score 46.3) home 3+ fav, off a 1-3 SU loss as home 3+ fav. [TB]
17-4 over (Av. total 39.7...av. score 50.0!) if last game went over.
10-1 over (Av. total 39.3...av. score 51.4!) if last game went 10+ over.

The Bucs have seemingly been playing solid D, but really they've only limited teams that sttruggle to score anyway. They've allowed 20 to Seattle, 33 to Indi, 23 to Det and 24 to a 1/2 strength Jags this week.
They've been scoring well tho, av. a little under 20 ppg...now they face a Cards D that gives up over 22.5, and allowed less than 20 just once all season.
'Zona have scored 19+ in 5 of 7 and av. a 21 ppg. James running well, and the chance of late scores is always there with Warner throwing the ball about in no huddle.
Like it before it hits 37.5.

Pittsburgh -8.5

League: 2-11-2 (Av. loss 15.9) away 7+ dog, with more than 6 days rest, if opp is off an ats win as road fav. [Balt]
(0-1 2207. SF 15-33 NYG @ +9.5.
0-1 2006. GB 9-31 Philli @ +11.5)
0-6-1 (Av. loss 17.6) on a Monday Night. (inc. the GB v. Philli game last year)
...also 0-5 (Av. loss 14.0) if team won previous match-up by 7+ ats...

Baltimore have been horrible on the road. A small win @ a poor SF, and losses @ Cinci, Cleveland and Buffalo...THE bottom 3 for total defense...now travel to the number one D in the NFL.
They av. just 14 ppg away as it is...
Steelers allow 13 ppg, and just 6.3 @ home!!
They've won their 3 home games by 23, 21 & 21, and scored 21 + points in 6 of 7 games overall.
I just don't see how Baltimore score enough to keep this one close.
Grabbing this one early before it gets over 9.

 

[peteyboy]

great week last week! thanks for the support over in my thread... as a result I tailed you. And CASHED!:00hour Thanks...looking forward to your picks

 

[PAWAQATSI]

If you keep killing em like this Christo........



....they'll give you the death sentence!! :00x11



Keep on rollin' brother

 

[smurphy]

Skeeter1 called you the most ignorant SOB he ever "met". ....Reckon there's no proof about the SOB part, but you obviously are not very ignorant in terms of American football handicapping.

 

[escarzamd]

Very nice work last week............I'll be watchin'..........Doc:SIB

 

[MrChristo]

Skeeter1 called you the most ignorant SOB he ever "met". ....Reckon there's no proof about the SOB part, but you obviously are not very ignorant in terms of American football handicapping.

I saw your quote in that thread, smurphy...didn't see the original tho, guess it was deleted? :shrug:
Always funny stuff being called ignorant simply because you don't agree with someone else's pov...

Anyway...Stop being controvercial Christo...I don't want my own thread ending up closed! :mj07:

Denver @ Detroit under 45.5

League: 2-16-1 under (Av. total 39.8...av. score 32.6) any team off a 7+ ats win as away dog with 34+ mins TOP, if opp is off a Monday Night game.
(0-0-1 2006. Balt 28-6 Oak @ 34)
0-9-1 under (Av. total 39.2...av. score 31.0) if opp last game went 10+ under.

A couple of things I like in this one...Denver's inability to score for one! Take out the Pittsburgh explosion (even then 7 came from a fumble recovery TD), they haven't scored over 20 in reg. all season, and av. just 17.
Add to that, Detroit have suddenly found themselves a running game with Jones as starter, which last week translated into ball and clock control.
Denver have very similar run D numbers to Chicago, so there's every chance it happens again this week.
Detroit with some long, sustained drives should keep the ball away from Denver, who generally don't score well anyway.
Despite Denver being 5-2 over on the season, they are just 2-5 this number, and I think it's too high.

GB @ KC under 38.5

League: 9-42 under (Av. total 40.3...av. score 33.9) home fav of 3 or less off a BYE. [KC]
(0-2 under 2007. NO 13-16 Caro @ 44. Det 23-16 TB @ 44)
1-12 under (Av. total 40.8...av. score 32.0) if opp was last away.
...and 0-6 under (Av. total 41.2...av. score 32.8) if opp is off OT.

A system that I just about follow blindly these days.
For some reason totals are consistantly inflated for small home favs off BYE's. :shrug:
But, who scores in this one anyway?
Like last week, GB facing a solid pass D...KC 10th in yards allowed and y/pass (6.7), should be able to contain a pass happy Favre who has managed just 17 and 13 (in reg.) against two other good pass D's.
The Chief's haven't given up more than 20 all season as it is.
Packers D continues to be under-rated, allowed 16+ just twice @ 17.
Looks a lot of points to me.

Cleveland -1

League: 18-0 SU (Av. win 16.1!!) any team at home, off an ats win as away fav with <30 mins TOP, if total 44+ and the last game went over. [Cleveland]

Basically, this team down flat out score!! Sure, their D sucks butt, but they've been finding ways to get the job done with the ball.
It's hard to argue with their form...an opening day loss with a thousand turn-overs with Frye as the starter, a 17 point loss @ NE (which now looks pretty good...very good even considering it was 10 points before a very late fumble return)...only a small loss @ Oakland doesn't look great.
Seattle are 1-2 on the road, with only a win @ crappy SF...and take out their opening day home win, their other 3 wins have been against sides with a combined 4-18 record!! (Although admittedly Cleveland have had a decent schedule themselves!)
I dunno, maybe it's because I've got Anderson as my Fantasy QB ...but I'm starting to really like this Brownies team!!
I think they can do enough to get the W here.

SD @ Minni over 41

League: 19-6-1 over (Av. total 42.8...av. score 47.2) away fav, off a 10+ ats win as a 3+ fav, with <28 mins TOP. [SD]
9-0-1 over (Av. total 43.0...av. score 52.1!) if opp was last at home.

I've got a feeling that SD could just about hit this on their own. 35 points in the first half last week before really calling off the dogs...28 the week before with just 28 mins TOP, and 41 @ Denver...they are an offense capable of big plays and quick scoring...as such they are 6-1 over this number for the season!
Minni D showing signs that they aren't very good...dead last in passing yards allowed, and they've allowed 20+ in 5 of 7 games, despite playing only 1 team in the top 10 for scoring. (Dallas...SD are 9th)
SD score their 27+...and either Minni keep it close, or they score a late consolation TD to knock it over

That's it for now...I really like Buffalo to get the win, but will wait on the line...
Thanks for the support as always gang, and best of luck to us all.

...oh, and fwiw, smurphy, my mother is a lovely lady.

 

[escarzamd]

All aboard the Mr Christo $$$-$$$-$$$-:burnout Mobile.

Gonna use SD Over for my fantasy bet. GL.....Doc:SIB

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

tremendous record buddy.... keep it up and BOL this week !!


vicc

 

[ScreaminPain]

I always enjoy the read. You have an interesting insight and your record speaks for itself.

I appreciate your effort.....thanks for posting.

 

[ThomasJ]

Great use of the SDQL MrChristo, continued success.

Any sign of the resident home dog guy lately, 1-5 week 8 and 20-18 std not very earth shattering but about what we told him.

gl Tom

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks Tom :toast:

Yeah, you gotta love numbers...generally very reliable things...

...which I hope our mate is now starting to understand.

 

[MrChristo]

Fred Taylor under 70.5 yards rushing.

Getting a bit hooked on these player props! Seem to be finding a decent one every week...

Not sure if this number is based on NO's perceived crappy defense, or the fact he figured to get lots of carries with Gray @ QB...but either way, I think it's too much.
6-16 v. Tenn (Tenn allow 3.4 y/rush)
16-56 v. Atl (4.3)
17-84 v. Denver (League's second worst @ 4.9)
16-51 v. KC (4.0)
6-90 v. Houston (4.6) ...but one was 76 yards!
11-55 v. Indi (4.1)
24-68 v. TB (3.9)

Surprisingly, NO have the 5th best run D @ just 3.6 ypc!!

They've allowed 41 yards to Gore (SF),
28 to Dunn (Atl)
35 Alexander (Sea)
59 Foster (Caro)
50 White (Tenn)
61 Williams (TB)
...and 118 to Addai way back in week one...but you'd have to think that Manning is a bit more of a passing threat than Gray ! :scared

Every chance they stack the line here, so even if he gets 20+ carries, he will be largely ineffective...as seen by his 2.8 ypc av. last week. :toast:

 

[Dizzayton]

Browns all the way to the bank:SIB

 

[Dr. Whitetail]

Nice call on Cleveland! Can't believe Detroit put up 44. UGH!

 

[ThomasJ]

Mrchristo we have a small group at talksport NFL and Ncaa who are discussing the query language and sharing some thoughts if you are interested in some interaction.

Tom