Week Five Picks - YTD (17-15)

[Carl Spackler]

A 4-1 week four...let the tide turn.

A few early plays....

Ohio -5 over Bowling Green - I saw this at seven last night and was pleasantly surprised to see this drop to five. OU is finally coming back home after three straight on the road against some very talented teams.....teams much better than the Falcons are right now. The Bobcats have not looked good against Missouri and Rutgers, but I think we have to remember that those two teams are legit top twenty-five contenders. The ship is quickly sinking in BG and I am not convinced that Brandon has the control to get this team back together. OU wins, covers, and they might even drink a beer or two in Athens for a change.

Akron -3 over Kent - Curious to see what Spang has to say about this one, but I believe the oddsmakers are really overreacting to the Flashes' wins over Miami and BG. These are not the Redhawks and Falcons of the last few years. There is a changing of the guard in the MAC, but the Zips are still the better team in this one and will cover the small number at Dix.

Still looking at a few others and fully expect to post many more games this week than I did in week four. There are some interesting Big Ten numbers out there right now so we shall see what happens....

 

[spang]

Well since you asked....

Though its a bit early to toss the term "must win" around, it's about as close as you can get to it for the Zips. A loss here sends them to 2' games behind Kent, and that would be tough to make up.

The upside for Akron in this match up, as I see it, is that they do have the better defense. I'm impressed by this unit which has not given up 300 yards of offense to anybody( including Penn State)
The downside for the Zips thus far has been the inability to get a consistent rushing game going and that is a definite problem. Kent's defense is improved and if Akron can't move on the ground Kent can really get after Luke all day. Another downside is that Akron's kicking game is suspect at best. If it comes down to a field goal, Akron could be in trouble.

I can tell you that I despise laying road chalk with the Zips, always have and always will. That said I think they do have the edge here based on the better defense and Getsy's ability to make a big play.

I have not played a side here but have already invested in a total play at under 42.

BTW, I like the OU play. BG's inferior defense is just the tonic to get OU's running game going.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Thanks for the input, Spang. I will probably be posting a few more MAC plays tomorrow along with some possible Big Ten plays.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Miami +11 over Cincinnati - It is time for Miami to perform and they should be able to do so against a rival like Miami. They have found various ways to fall apart, but Cincy should not be laying this kind of chalk even at Nippert....especially when Nippert sees more talent and a larger crowd when St. X and Elder play there.

Northern Illinois -6 over Ball State - This is a great opportunity for the Huskies to roll a MAC team and with one conference loss, they know they cannot let up against anyone. Watch for Wolfe to run crazy against a weak D.

Ohio State/Iowa under 43 - These are two offenses that have some threats but I think that Tressel ball will win out in Iowa City.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Northwestern +20 over Penn State - The game isn't until 3:30 so I might be jumping the gun a little, but I don't see us getting 21. The Kittens should not be laying this kind of chalk against anyone because Morelli and the offense is just not clicking. The Wildcats should be able to score enough to keep this respectable.

Toledo +17 over Pitt - Glad that we got this number finally. It has been creeping up and this is as good as we are going to see. Toledo has a great weapon back in the mix in Scooter McDougle and Big Tom won't be afraid to use him. Plus, I believe that Dave Porntasche is still on the other sideline.

 

[Smitty]

carl, be careful with the wildcats. while i agree in principle that the nittany lions shouldn't be a big fav against almost anybody, this matchup really favors them. northwestern has almost no threat of a passing game (a TOTAL of 511 passing yards their first 4 games). and penn state can still stuff the run. i don't see sutton getting anything going all day. morelli has struggled on the road, but the first 2 road starts of his career were at the #1 & #2 teams in the country. ok, ok, notre dame has been exposed as the fraud many of us knew they were, but that's still a very tough place for your first road start. i look for him to settle in today at home and start to get comfortable with some of his multiple weapons. something like 31-6 would not surprise me at all today.

good luck to you on the rest of your plays.