through 3wks, minus RLs and parlays (i exclude them due to their small w% req'd to be profitable) i'm sittin at 6.30% ROI despite being a slight loser (-$110 or so on $4940 wagered, about -130 ML avg) on favorites thus far. under system's doing very well considering the first 5 days were absolute hell.
finished in the black 6 of 7 days last week to get solidly in the black. looking to keep the trend on the upward slope. on to monday's plays!:0074
sox5 +170 $.50 w+$.85
sox +180 $.50 w+$.90
chisox@yanks over10 -106 $1.59:scared
humber's given up 1.5h/ip v LHB so far, and #28 will have 7 of them in the lineup tonight. no stretch to rely on the yanks for runs, but think this line's a little low thanks to the white sox' struggles of late. as i see it--having watched every sox game--scherzer had some balls hit real hard off him and had the sinker WORKING. penny had an out of body experience, and carlos and pauly got to JV. and i don't think i need to explain the dynamics of the righty-righty matchup in new yankee stadium.
series bet... buehrle +180 v colon if the sox can split the first 2. win tonight and it's +180 for floyd v nova.
dodgers@nolasco un8 -105 $1.05
:director:broxton, you suck! unbelievable!
nats@maholm u8 +105 $1 w+$1.05
both system plays...
cubs -125 $1.05 :firing:
chc5 -130 $1.04 :thefinger:thefinger:thefinger to STARLIN CASTRO!
garza's BABIP is so high and his FIP and K/9 are what chicago paid for. esmil rogers is more likely to get lit up than mow em down. may bite on the under as a bit of a hedge against the cubs offense not showing up. it's cold and windy here!
under 7 +112 $.89
wind's still in from CF at 10+ and it's coolin' off as the rain moves in. garza's (higher than 09-10 & career) 45% ground ball rate is still something to keep an eye on, but i like the wind to help each pitcher out. not gonna play it over... although 85%+ are on the over--as of 100min before the game. don't see much long term value in playing over 6.0, 6.5, 7.0... ESPECIALLY at -122 or more!
toronto blue jays +135 $.90 w+$1.22
76% on texas... lewis has struggled a bit. drabek's been solid. like the value.
jays@texas un9.5 -105 $1.16:thefinger
74% on the over... :nono:don't think it gets up there. it's a system play, regardless.
cliff.5 -143 $1:facepalm:
phillies -136 $1.36
phi-1.5 +120 $.60
philly hit the ball well v some good pitching in SD, not scoring a bunch but that's petco. arizona got swept by new york. if the juice wasn't 30 points i'd take Lee over 6.5 Ks.
oakland +1.5 -160 $1.04
gio/weaver 5in u3.5 -115 $.81
a's@halos under6.5 +110 $.80 w+$.88
was surprised to see 3.5 -115 on this so went 50/50 split. think this one gets handed to the pen 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 in the 7th or 8th, and with oakland's pen and the angels' struggling offense, i like getting 1.5 here. esp don't feel like losing a +140 bet 2-1.
braves -128 $1.28
atl@sd u6.5 +101 $1
wouldn't be shocked by a 1-0 SD win with moseley on the bump. but the line's about right. i'll take the braves on the chance that j-Hey's got his eye back on the ball and SD is still the AAA offense they've shown themselves to be.
[series]
chi.sox +180 $1.00 1-0
dodgers -105 $1.47 0-1
17.57 / 18
srs
und 2-4
fav 0-3
5inn 1-3 -2.0 / 3.35
dog 2-0 +2.12 / 1.4
RLs 0-2 -1.64
ovr 0-1
par /
prp /
atl 0-2 -2.28
cws 2-0 +1.75
today... :clap: 5-13-0 -$8.97
this wk... 5-13-0 -$8.97
apr 0-0-0 +$0.00
wk3... 70-42-6 +$26.79
wk2... 27-22-3 +$9.70
wk1... 81-97-5 -$18.24
11mlb...183-174-14 +$9.28
avg play (369.57/371)=$.996
ROI +$2.51
_
srs 5-6-0 (45.45%) -$0.25
fav 21-20 51.22%
5in 39-32-4 54.93% (+2.75/63.10)
und 84-71-8 54.19%
ovr 5-2-1 71.43%
dog 21-21 +$3.63 /35.77
par 4-14 -$2.29 /9.05
rLs 2-6 -$2.34
prp 2-2-1 -.35 /2.80
atl 13-15-0 -$3.60
cws 20-13-2 +$3.95
......
10mlb 1015-826-75 (55.13%)
09mlb 496-454-31 (52.16%)
08mlb 574-385-11 (59.85%)
07mlb 586-392-16 (59.92%)
bodog|5dimes|thegreek
go braves!
go white sox! :toast:
finished in the black 6 of 7 days last week to get solidly in the black. looking to keep the trend on the upward slope. on to monday's plays!:0074
sox5 +170 $.50 w+$.85
sox +180 $.50 w+$.90
chisox@yanks over10 -106 $1.59:scared
humber's given up 1.5h/ip v LHB so far, and #28 will have 7 of them in the lineup tonight. no stretch to rely on the yanks for runs, but think this line's a little low thanks to the white sox' struggles of late. as i see it--having watched every sox game--scherzer had some balls hit real hard off him and had the sinker WORKING. penny had an out of body experience, and carlos and pauly got to JV. and i don't think i need to explain the dynamics of the righty-righty matchup in new yankee stadium.
series bet... buehrle +180 v colon if the sox can split the first 2. win tonight and it's +180 for floyd v nova.
dodgers@nolasco un8 -105 $1.05
:director:broxton, you suck! unbelievable!nats@maholm u8 +105 $1 w+$1.05
both system plays...
cubs -125 $1.05 :firing:
chc5 -130 $1.04 :thefinger:thefinger:thefinger to STARLIN CASTRO!
garza's BABIP is so high and his FIP and K/9 are what chicago paid for. esmil rogers is more likely to get lit up than mow em down. may bite on the under as a bit of a hedge against the cubs offense not showing up. it's cold and windy here!
under 7 +112 $.89
wind's still in from CF at 10+ and it's coolin' off as the rain moves in. garza's (higher than 09-10 & career) 45% ground ball rate is still something to keep an eye on, but i like the wind to help each pitcher out. not gonna play it over... although 85%+ are on the over--as of 100min before the game. don't see much long term value in playing over 6.0, 6.5, 7.0... ESPECIALLY at -122 or more!
toronto blue jays +135 $.90 w+$1.22
76% on texas... lewis has struggled a bit. drabek's been solid. like the value.
jays@texas un9.5 -105 $1.16:thefinger
74% on the over... :nono:don't think it gets up there. it's a system play, regardless.
cliff.5 -143 $1:facepalm:
phillies -136 $1.36
phi-1.5 +120 $.60
philly hit the ball well v some good pitching in SD, not scoring a bunch but that's petco. arizona got swept by new york. if the juice wasn't 30 points i'd take Lee over 6.5 Ks.
oakland +1.5 -160 $1.04
gio/weaver 5in u3.5 -115 $.81
a's@halos under6.5 +110 $.80 w+$.88
was surprised to see 3.5 -115 on this so went 50/50 split. think this one gets handed to the pen 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 in the 7th or 8th, and with oakland's pen and the angels' struggling offense, i like getting 1.5 here. esp don't feel like losing a +140 bet 2-1.
braves -128 $1.28
atl@sd u6.5 +101 $1
wouldn't be shocked by a 1-0 SD win with moseley on the bump. but the line's about right. i'll take the braves on the chance that j-Hey's got his eye back on the ball and SD is still the AAA offense they've shown themselves to be.
[series]
chi.sox +180 $1.00 1-0
dodgers -105 $1.47 0-1
17.57 / 18
srs
und 2-4
fav 0-3
5inn 1-3 -2.0 / 3.35
dog 2-0 +2.12 / 1.4
RLs 0-2 -1.64
ovr 0-1
par /
prp /
atl 0-2 -2.28
cws 2-0 +1.75
today... :clap: 5-13-0 -$8.97
this wk... 5-13-0 -$8.97
apr 0-0-0 +$0.00
wk3... 70-42-6 +$26.79
wk2... 27-22-3 +$9.70
wk1... 81-97-5 -$18.24
11mlb...183-174-14 +$9.28
avg play (369.57/371)=$.996
ROI +$2.51
_
srs 5-6-0 (45.45%) -$0.25
fav 21-20 51.22%
5in 39-32-4 54.93% (+2.75/63.10)
und 84-71-8 54.19%
ovr 5-2-1 71.43%
dog 21-21 +$3.63 /35.77
par 4-14 -$2.29 /9.05
rLs 2-6 -$2.34
prp 2-2-1 -.35 /2.80
atl 13-15-0 -$3.60
cws 20-13-2 +$3.95
......
10mlb 1015-826-75 (55.13%)
09mlb 496-454-31 (52.16%)
08mlb 574-385-11 (59.85%)
07mlb 586-392-16 (59.92%)
bodog|5dimes|thegreek
go braves!
go white sox! :toast:
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