Week Six Pix

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GM

PleasureGlutton
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Jan 21, 2000
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Last Week: 6-4, +2.25 units
Overall: 29-24, +4.25 units
All Plays are for 1 unit unless stated otherwise.

Just one play in so far....

Jacksonville -2 -102 (Carib's Tuesday special) - I wrote about this one earlier in the week...but in summary: Tenn D is beaten up, giving up a minimum of 21 pts in each game, and a whopping 114 pts in the past 3 weeks. Jax has yet to score fewer than 23 pts in any game this year. Faced some weak D, but did it again vs stronger Philly D last week. I don't see a letdown here as this is a divisional game. Titans just haven't been competitive for a while, so I'm not sure why this line is less than a FG. Lots of people on this, that does concern me a bit.

More later....

Good luck everyone.
 
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PleasureGlutton
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Hope you're right MagiTek :)

Adding:

Kansas City +3? -105 - How do the Chargers respond now that someone has shut them down? The competition's getting tougher every week, after 3 pretty soft games to start the season. SD has definitely not seen an offence like KC's. Denver exposed some holes in the Charger D last week, and I think KC will show some more. On the flipside, KC HAS seen a few good defences...and they still put up 48 vs Miami and 38 vs NE. Though held to 16 by the Jags, that was four weeks ago and they've been rolling ever since. The Chiefs are improving every week I think, looking more and more like the Rams of a year or two ago. If this becomes a shootout I think SD is hard-pressed to cover the spread....so I'll hope for lots of points. One concern is KC playing on the east coast last week, now on the west coast this week. At least they got to stop over for the week half-way. :)
 
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PleasureGlutton
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Adding (but not putting in yet):

Carolina +3? or +ML: Waiting til morning to see if I can get a +3 (doubt I'll get it). If not, I will likely just take the Panthers on the moneyline. Good spot for the Panthers to get back on track I believe. Coming off a pair of losses by a FG, Panthers should be getting Muhsin Muhammad back today and that should help against a questionable pass D. Carolina D is solid, having not given up more than 17 pts in any game this season. They should have Quincy Carter scrambling for his life.
 
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JEFF

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Good luck Greg

Good luck Greg

I notice no dropped plays this week:(
 
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PleasureGlutton
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Adding:

Houston +8: The Texans have been money-burners so far, but I think this is a nice spot for them. I like the possibilities of a Buffalo-overlook situation here and offensive/defensive matchups, among other factors. Did a write-up earlier in the week on this game...rather than retype it all, here is a link to that thread: Vanbasten's Houston thread
 
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PleasureGlutton
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Adding:

Atlanta/NY Giants Under 35: Totals this low make me a bit nervous, but everything here points Under. Of course, Michael Vick is out, and Atlanta is a completely different team without him. As it was Atlanta's passing offence was only ranked #29 in the league...now what? And they face the #6 ranked pass defence today. So that should mean Dunn & Duckett are running the ball all day and burning up clock. Giants run D isn't too shabby either. On the other side of the ball, similar situation. Atlanta's pass D ranks #7, and Kerry Collins isn't exactly tearing it up this year. Giants have to run the ball as well I think. I see this as a real grind-it-out snoozefest, maybe similar to the Sea/NYG game of a few weeks back. At least one team should have serious problems scoring, and that should be good enough to keep it Under the number. I'd take the Giants too, but laying more than a FG with them makes me squirm.
 
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PleasureGlutton
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Well I guess I gotta do it....

Adding:

New England -5?: I am so torn on this! I really like this pick for a number of reasons. 1) NE back off a tough road trip, facing a softer opponent with a much softer D than they've seen recently; 2) GB off a road MNF win, now staying on the road for a tougher game, with a day less to prepare. Can the mediocre Pack win back-to-back roadies?...don't think so; 3) Brady & Co vs a crummy secondary should mean points, points, points; 4) Pats heading into a bye week should be fully focused on this game; 5) NE has been beaten lately by strong running games...and while Ahman Green is ~good~, he's not Ricky Williams or LaDainian Tomlinson, and he's certainly not Priest Holmes.

So why am I torn? Because I HATE taking 3? to 6? point favorites, for one. Favs in this range have posted a miserable 6-17 ATS record this year. Ya, 26%! Scary betting against those numbers. (It's a dangerous category to take favs in in ANY year. This is my 7th year that I've been tracking it and never in those years have favs outcovered dogs in this range...but it's not usually THIS extreme). This pointspread range is "backdoor cover" territory week in and week out. The Zone where you always think you're betting on the better team and it goes up in flames. Also the kind of spread that screws ya when a team is just trying to get their win, and couldn't care less if they also cover the game. The other reason I don't like it is because the public is strongly behind it. The line IS going up to -6 in the morning, maybe -6?, of that I have no doubt. So I'm grabbing it at -5? now. And crossing my fingers. The gut tells me this is the right thing to do. And you don't argue with a gut the size of mine. :)
 
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PUHD

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Really like the Jax pick today. Hope you make some cash. Also think that Marty-ball is in for a suprise
 
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PleasureGlutton
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Up a little more than a unit today. I don't usually get too steamed at a loss, but I tell ya, that Carolina ML loss really got to me. Totally avoidable, because I could have taken the points like I do on 90% of my wagers, but this year I decided if I was getting between 1?-2? pts I would go +ML instead. Odds are pretty remote you'll need those few points. First time I've ever lost one of these little ML wagers...which wipes out a whole bunch of saved juice for all the times it worked. Oh well, move on....

Adding:

Miami +4 -115: Two very evenly matched teams...buying it up to +4 may be a factor I think. Denver #8 rush offence, Miami #3 rush offence. Denver #2 rush defence, Miami #4 rush defence. So both teams will have to try to get something done with their passing game, and who do you take, Griese or Fiedler? Personally I think that's a pretty even choice too...Griese is probably better, but Fiedler is having the best year of his short career. Both teams are middle of the pack in pass offence and pass defence. Both teams coming off big divisional wins, which were proceeded by embarassing road losses. Give Denver a bit of an edge for home field. The numbers, motivational factors, everything, really line up so evenly that I can't see either team running away with it. Should be a very entertaining, close game. So I'm pretty comfortable getting 4 points here.
 
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G

GM

PleasureGlutton
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Jan 21, 2000
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5-3, +1.9 units for the day. Phew, long day! Lots of really close finishes. I'm feeling kinda drained. LOL

Hope you all had a good day.

Cheers,
Greg
 
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