week three plays

[vanbasten]

season 3-10-1 (-20.70 units)

here's what i've come up with...

chi +9
gb +6
no +7
sd +10
cinn +3

cinn/balt O
miami/pitt O
det/phi U definite play
gb/indy U
stl/no U
minn/chi U
den/sd U

thinking out loud...

week three scenerio - since 99 league is 0-7 O/U when a team won by at least 7 points or more in week one, then lost by at least 7 points or more in week two.

in this crazy 2004 season we have an unusual high number of teams that fit this scenerio.

gb
st louis
minnesota
cleveland
tennessee

my numbers support the first three under.

like gb this week. my numbers have this line at 3.
i like gb here coming off the loss to chi. also, indy has their home opener after b2b road games. teams in this spot that open against a non division opponent are 7-14 ats.

monday night, find it hard to support wash. dallas is 11-1 ats vs wash last 12. wash is 0-9 ats at home vs division last 9. they are also 1-9 ats at home in first four games of the season. since '92 wash is 16-25 ats in september games. since '92 wash is 32-47 in games where the line is +3 to -3.

just some thoughts, getting late, calling it a night. posting all plays tomorrow, will be out of town for the weekend.

good luck to all

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on the plays you decide on VB!


toy

 

[Skanoochies]

Good post VB. Betting on unders has me nervous this year, with the new pass interference rule. It seems that it is geared towards higher scoring IMO.

Good luck this weekend,

Skanoochies.

 

[smurphy]

The higher scores haven't panned out yet. In fact, teams are actually passing LESS. I believe I heard teams RUSHING plays are highest % over first 2 weeks since 1991.

 

[MrChristo]

The higher scores haven't panned out yet. In fact, teams are actually passing LESS. I believe I heard teams RUSHING plays are highest % over first 2 weeks since 1991.

I think the books have (for the first 2 weeks...and probably still are) over-valuing their totals in anticipation of this 'new' rule.
As smurphy says, it simply hasn't happened. (And by now, logically won't I guess!).
Totals that in the past couple of years would have been 37-38, are now 39-40, imo. (Jax/Denv last week..Wash/TB wk. 1).
Only 1 or 2 points, but I think it's significant.

 

[GM]

Totals have definitely not gone up.

Scoring averages by week:

2004
Week 1 - 38.8
Week 2 - 37.8

2003
Week 1 - 40.3
Week 2 - 45.2

2002
Week 1 - 49.3
Week 2 - 40.9

2001
Week 1 - 36.4
Week 2 - 36.9

2000
Week 1 - 38.8
Week 2 - 48.8

So no real correlation to increased scores and the "more-closely-enforced" rules. Don't read a whole lot into these #'s...they do fluctuate quite a bit from week to week. I'd say we're "due" for a 44.5 or so soon...if you believe in "due".

Oh, and by the way, thus far we've had 13 Over games vs 19 Unders.

Good luck on your plays VanB.

*end of thread hijack*

 

[vanbasten]

chicago +11 2*
chicago/minn under 45 1*
balt/cinn over 34.5 1*
det/philly under 44 2*

in hotel in va, gotta run.

good luck to all

 

[trolln4walii]

GL on your plays today vb

 

[vanbasten]

played...

gb/indy under 50.5 3*
gb +6 2*
sd +10 2*
sf +10 1*

thanks trollin.

good luck to all