Western Conference Final Outlook

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LOKI
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Western Conference Final Outlook

No. 2 Detroit Red Wings vs. No. 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Series Price: Detroit -200, Chicago +170

Series Format: Detroit, 2-2-1-1-1


HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU PUCK LINE HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER
54-28-12 46-48 29-10-8 25-18-4 47-43-4
59-24-10 33-60 32-10-5 27-14-5 50-41-2



2008-09 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
10/25/08 Detroit 6 (-150) @ Chicago 5 in SO OVER 5.5
12/06/08 Chicago 4 @ Detroit 5 (-185) in SO OVER 5.5
12/30/08 Chicago 0 @ Detroit 4 (-150) UNDER 6
01/01/09 Detroit 6 (EVEN) @ Chicago 4 OVER 5.5
04/11/09 Chicago 4 (+170) @ Detroit 2 PUSH 6
04/12/09 Detroit 0 @ Chicago 3 (-145) UNDER 6



Skinny: It?s been a while since Blackhawks fans could wear their team?s sweater with confidence in the Windy City, but they?re doing it now. And you?d be hard pressed to find someone to say that Chicago doesn?t have a reasonable shot at its first Stanley Cup Final in over 20 years.
Chicago was able to dispatch the Canucks in six games thanks in large part not having to depend on its top talent. Instead, the Blackhawks saw output from all four of their forward lines. Patrick Kane put in six goals in the second round (three coming in the series clincher). Yet Jonathan Toews had just two scores against Vancouver. Martin Havlat put in a pair of lamp lighters in Round 2, as did Dustin Byfuglien.

The Blackhawks were especially adept at scoring with the man advantage. They lead all playoff clubs with 15 power play goals in 51 chances. The penalty kill unit, on the other hand, is not firing on all cylinders with a 79.5 percent success rate.

Regardless of the special teams play in front of him, Nikolai Khabibulin will have to step up his play in the conference final. Chicago?s netminder exorcised some demons by getting past the Canucks, but he still only stopped 87.3 percent of their shots on goal. But you can?t underestimate what it means to have a goaltender that has won a Stanley Cup.

While Chicago is coming into this series well rested, the Red Wings enter their third straight Western Conference Final battered and bruised.

Detroit took every blow that the Ducks could muster in its seven game battle, but they advanced thanks to going four lines deep. Johan Franzen is showing why the Wings signed him to an 11-year contract extension by leading the club with eight goals in the playoffs?six of which came in the second round. Henrik Zetterberg has found the back of the net six times, while the usually offensive-minded Pavel Datsyuk has just one goal to his credit in the postseason.

One thing that the Red Wings can say that without any hesitation is that they have the best defensive corp remaining in the playoffs. This club has given up just 13 even strength goals in the 11 postseason tilts they?ve played.


The Wings have also seen Chris Osgood make good on General Manager Ken Holland?s guarantee that he would play just fine when the playoffs started. Osgood stopped only 89 percent of the shots he saw in the regular season. Now he?s the owner of a .921 save percentage in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Gambling Notes: The Blackhawks finished up the season series with a 2-2-2 mark. Not bad, really?but a little misleading. Chicago?s two victories came in the final weekend of the regular season campaign. Two matches that the Red Wings had nothing to gain and used those meetings to rest up.

What would worry me right out of the gate is how Chicago will perform after being away from competitive play since May 9. But it?s hard to argue with the Blackhawks? 7-2-1 record when playing on more than three days of rest.

As far as taking the Red Wings at home in this series, it?s just not worth it. They went 3-7 in their final 10 regular season tests, but are 5-1 in the playoffs. Still not worth the puck line play as they?re just 3-3 in six postseason matches at Joe Louis Arena.

In the ?maybe stats lie? department, we have Chicago?s Khabibulin. The Blackhawks? goalie has a lifetime 15-21-6 mark with 3.18 goals against average and 90.6 save percentage. In the last two seasons, however, ?The Bulin Wall? is 6-3-1 with a 2.69 GAA and he?s stopped 92.3 percent of the Red Wings? shots on goal.

As far as totals, try to get on the ?over? when the total is set at 5 ?. In the three games that the total was set at 5 ?, they averaged a combined score of 10. And if we see a lot of power plays, high scores will be the order given the issues on the PK for both sides.

Outlook: Whatever preconceived notions we?ve had about young teams can be thrown out the window when it comes to the Blackhawks. They dispatched a quality team in Calgary and surprised me completely by ousting Roberto Luongo?s Canucks.

Yet this isn?t a young team the ?Hawks will play. No team in the Frozen Four has the experience that rests on Detroit?s bench.

Look for Osgood to stay strong in goal as the Red Wings offensive firepower gets past a porous Chicago defense. It?ll be fun, but Detroit wins this meeting of old school versus new school in five games.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ DETROIT RED-WINGS

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ DETROIT RED-WINGS

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ DETROIT RED-WINGS
3:05 PM Game Time Record Line Betting Trend
Teams Win-Loss Streak Open Current Side Money O/U
1 Chicago Blackhawks (46-24) (22-15 A) W-3 +165 5.5 9% 45% 84%
2 Detroit Red Wings (51-21) (27-9 H) W-1 -175 91% 55% 16%
 

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CHICAGO vs. DETROIT

CHICAGO vs. DETROIT

CHICAGO vs. DETROIT

The Matchup

CHICAGO (54-28- 0-12) AT DETROIT (59-23- 0-11) 3:05 p.m. ET

GOALTENDING STATISTICS
( + = Rookie Goaltender )
CHICAGO
GPI MINS AVG W L T EN SO GA SA SV% G A PIM
CRISTOBAL HUET 17 991 2.30 9 5 3 1 38 460 .917 0 0 0
NIKOLAI KHABIBULIN 18 1079 2.45 11 2 4 1 44 558 .921 0 2 4
CHI TOTALS 34 2079 2.40 20 7 7 1 2 83 1019 .919
DETROIT
GPI MINS AVG W L T EN SO GA SA SV% G A PIM
TY CONKLIN 18 1063 2.43 12 5 1 3 43 511 .916 0 0 2
CHRIS OSGOOD 19 1127 3.19 12 2 4 0 60 482 .876 0 1 0
DET TOTALS 36 2200 2.84 24 7 5 1 3 104 994 .895




WIN/LOSS COMPARISON
CHICAGO HOME UNITS AWAY UNITS TOTAL UNITS
2008 29-18-0 -370 25-22-0 145 54-40-0 -22
LAST 10 3-1-0 155 3-3-0 55 6-4-0 21
DETROIT HOME UNITS AWAY UNITS TOTAL UNITS
2008 32-15-0 -630 27-19-0 50 59-34-0 -58
LAST 10 4-1-0 160 3-2-0 5 7-3-0 16




OVER/UNDER COMPARISON
(Note: units reflect money line result on the 'over')

CHICAGO HOME UNITS AWAY UNITS TOTAL UNITS
2008 22-24-1 -370 25-20-2 385 47-44-3 1
LAST 10 2-2-0 -30 5-1-0 410 7-3-0 38
DETROIT HOME UNITS AWAY UNITS TOTAL UNITS
2008 26-20-1 550 24-21-1 205 50-41-2 75
LAST 10 2-3-0 -70 2-2-1 20 4-5-1 -5




SCORING STATISTICS
OVERALL LAST 10 GAMES
HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
CHICAGO 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.8 3.8 3.8
OPPONENT 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 3.5 3.1
OVERALL LAST 10 GAMES
HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
DETROIT 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
OPPONENT 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.0 2.6 2.3




REVIEW OF RECENT GAMES
CHICAGO
SCORE/W-L-T HOME LINE TOTAL
DATE OPP (*=OT) OPEN CLOSE OPEN CLOSE O/U GOALTENDER
4/20/09 at CAL 2-4 L 0.0-145 0.0-155 5.5u 5.5u O KHABIBULIN
4/22/09 at CAL 4-6 L 0.0-155 0.0-150 5.5u 5.5u O KHABIBULIN
4/25/09 CAL 5-1 W 0.0-160 0.0-155 5.5u 5.5 O KHABIBULIN
4/27/09 at CAL 4-1 W 0.0-145 0.0-125 5.5o 5.5 U KHABIBULIN
4/30/09 at VAN 3-5 L 0.0-150 0.0-145 5.0o 5.0o O KHABIBULIN
5/02/09 at VAN 6-3 W 0.0-145 0.0-140 5.0o 5.0o O KHABIBULIN
5/05/09 VAN 1-3 L 0.0-145 0.0-145 5.5u 5.5u U KHABIBULIN
5/07/09 VAN 2-1 * W 0.0-155 0.0-160 5.0o 5.0o U KHABIBULIN
5/09/09 at VAN 4-2 W 0.0-145 0.0-150 5.0o 5.0o O KHABIBULIN
5/11/09 VAN 7-5 W 0.0-170 0.0-155 5.0o 5.0o O KHABIBULIN
DETROIT
SCORE/W-L-T HOME LINE TOTAL
DATE OPP (*=OT) OPEN CLOSE OPEN CLOSE O/U GOALTENDER
4/18/09 COB 4-0 W 0.0-260 0.0-280 5.5u 5.5u U OSGOOD
4/21/09 at COB 4-1 W 0.0+140 0.0+140 5.0o 5.0o P OSGOOD
4/23/09 at COB 6-5 W 0.0+180 0.0+175 5.0o 5.0o O OSGOOD
5/01/09 ANA 3-2 W 0.0-240 0.0-240 5.5u 5.5u U OSGOOD
5/03/09 ANA 3-4 * L 0.0-240 0.0-240 5.5u 5.5u O OSGOOD
5/05/09 at ANA 1-2 L 0.0+125 0.0+120 5.5u 5.5u U OSGOOD
5/07/09 at ANA 6-3 W 0.0+130 0.0+130 5.5u 5.5u O OSGOOD
5/10/09 ANA 4-1 W 0.0-240 0.0-240 5.5u 5.5u U OSGOOD
5/12/09 at ANA 1-2 L 0.0+125 0.0+135 5.5u 5.5u U OSGOOD
5/14/09 ANA 4-3 W 0.0-230 0.0-240 5.5u 5.5u O OSGOOD




HEAD-TO-HEAD
SCORE (*=OT) HOME LINE TOTAL WINNING
DATE VIS HOM-VIS OPEN CLOSE OPEN CLOSE O/U GOALTENDER
1/06/08 DET 1-3 0.0+165 0.0+160 5.5 5.5u U OSGOOD
3/11/08 CHI 3-1 0.0-260 0.0-250 5.5u 5.5u U OSGOOD
4/02/08 DET 6-2 0.0+130 0.0+115 5.5u 5.5u O KHABIBU
4/06/08 CHI 4-1 0.0-160 0.0-160 5.5u 5.5u U HASEK
10/25/08 DET 5-6 * 0.0+110 0.0+100 5.5 5.5 O CONKLIN
12/06/08 CHI 5-4 * 0.0-175 0.0-175 5.5o 5.5o O CONKLIN
12/30/08 CHI 4-0 0.0-160 0.0-150 6.0u 6.0u U CONKLIN
1/01/09 DET 4-6 0.0-125 0.0-130 5.5u 5.5u O CONKLIN
4/11/09 CHI 2-4 0.0-155 0.0-175 6.0u 6.0u P HUET
4/12/09 DET 3-0 0.0-135 0.0-135 6.0 6.0 U KHABIBU




VALUE INDEX ANALYSIS (team power ratings)
Team Power Rating
CHICAGO -105
DETROIT -170




VALUE INDEX COMPARISON
VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV LINE VI VI LINE VI EDGE
CHICAGO -105
DETROIT NL -110 -170 -175 .65

LV LINE VI LINE VI EDGE
OVER/UNDER 0.0 5.3 5.3 OVER
 
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