What do you guys think about the Filly?
- Thread starter Morris
- Start date
goin to be a tough race to do...
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With Tropical Storm Andrea working its way up the East Coast, the National Weather Service forecast calls for rain throughout today at Belmont Park, with up to 2 or 3 inches pelting the track overnight, followed by showers tomorrow morning and gradual clearing tomorrow afternoon.
The $64,000 question is: What condition will the surface be in by the time the 145th Belmont Stakes is run at 6:36 p.m.? And if the track is still wet, which horses stand to benefit the most?
The second question is easy to answer.
?I heard there?s going to be a lot of rain,? trainer Tom Albertrani said with a sly smile, standing on the track apron yesterday morning. Albertrani trains this week?s buzz horse, Freedom Child, who is coming into the 1 1/2-mile ?Test of the Champion? off a 13-length runaway over a sloppy Belmont strip in the May 11 Peter Pan.
?If the track is muddy, it will benefit us for sure,? he said. ?It helps him because it hurts some of the others.?
Albertrani noted Orb, the 3-1 Belmont favorite, also would move up over a wet track after winning the Kentucky Derby in the slop.
Freedom Child, a $350,000 yearling purchase owned by West Point Thoroughbreds, St. Elias Stable and his breeder, Spendthrift Farm, turned in only one timed workout since the Peter Pan, zipping five furlongs in :59.87 on May 27. But he has impressed observers with his strong morning gallops leading up to the race.
?Everyone?s been talking about this horse quite a bit all week,? Albertrani said. ?Hopefully, it gives you a little more confidence. I like what I?m seeing. I?m getting all the good signs. He couldn?t be doing any better.?
That?s when Albertrani brought up Bernardini, the 3-year-old champion of 2006 he trained for Darley Stable, who won the Preakness by 5 1/4 lengths, the Jim Dandy by 9, the Travers by 7 1/2 and the Jockey Club Gold Cup by 6 3/4.
?I just felt with the way Bernardini was training going into the Preakness, I had about the same level of confidence as I do going into this race with this horse,? Albertrani said. ?Not knowing what the outcome?s going to be, I?m just saying my level of confidence in both cases would be about the same.
?When you know your horse is training well and they?re doing good, you?ve got that confidence that they should perform well.?
Albertrani noted Freedom Child broke his maiden by 5 1/4 lengths over a fast track at Gulfstream Park, so he doesn?t need mud to show his best. He also isn?t worried about a speed duel with Frac Daddy, who breaks just inside Freedom Child from post 1, even though trainer Ken McPeek said they?re going to send him to the lead.
?If that does happen, he?ll have to use him to do it, and it will help us,? Albertrani said. ?We?ll just follow him into the first turn before the crowd comes over from the outside. I think they?ll go the first half faster than :49 [seconds], and our horse has the natural speed to go :48 on his own. For him, that?s pretty easy.?
Albertrani expects the track to be fast, even if it is wet ? much in the same way that beach sand is firmer closer to the ocean.
?If it rains hard, and the track is sealed [the dirt packed down by tractors pulling weighted sleds and rollers], the water rolls right off,? he said. ?If the sun comes out, it will be fast by noon time.?
__________________________
With Tropical Storm Andrea working its way up the East Coast, the National Weather Service forecast calls for rain throughout today at Belmont Park, with up to 2 or 3 inches pelting the track overnight, followed by showers tomorrow morning and gradual clearing tomorrow afternoon.
The $64,000 question is: What condition will the surface be in by the time the 145th Belmont Stakes is run at 6:36 p.m.? And if the track is still wet, which horses stand to benefit the most?
The second question is easy to answer.
?I heard there?s going to be a lot of rain,? trainer Tom Albertrani said with a sly smile, standing on the track apron yesterday morning. Albertrani trains this week?s buzz horse, Freedom Child, who is coming into the 1 1/2-mile ?Test of the Champion? off a 13-length runaway over a sloppy Belmont strip in the May 11 Peter Pan.
?If the track is muddy, it will benefit us for sure,? he said. ?It helps him because it hurts some of the others.?
Albertrani noted Orb, the 3-1 Belmont favorite, also would move up over a wet track after winning the Kentucky Derby in the slop.
Freedom Child, a $350,000 yearling purchase owned by West Point Thoroughbreds, St. Elias Stable and his breeder, Spendthrift Farm, turned in only one timed workout since the Peter Pan, zipping five furlongs in :59.87 on May 27. But he has impressed observers with his strong morning gallops leading up to the race.
?Everyone?s been talking about this horse quite a bit all week,? Albertrani said. ?Hopefully, it gives you a little more confidence. I like what I?m seeing. I?m getting all the good signs. He couldn?t be doing any better.?
That?s when Albertrani brought up Bernardini, the 3-year-old champion of 2006 he trained for Darley Stable, who won the Preakness by 5 1/4 lengths, the Jim Dandy by 9, the Travers by 7 1/2 and the Jockey Club Gold Cup by 6 3/4.
?I just felt with the way Bernardini was training going into the Preakness, I had about the same level of confidence as I do going into this race with this horse,? Albertrani said. ?Not knowing what the outcome?s going to be, I?m just saying my level of confidence in both cases would be about the same.
?When you know your horse is training well and they?re doing good, you?ve got that confidence that they should perform well.?
Albertrani noted Freedom Child broke his maiden by 5 1/4 lengths over a fast track at Gulfstream Park, so he doesn?t need mud to show his best. He also isn?t worried about a speed duel with Frac Daddy, who breaks just inside Freedom Child from post 1, even though trainer Ken McPeek said they?re going to send him to the lead.
?If that does happen, he?ll have to use him to do it, and it will help us,? Albertrani said. ?We?ll just follow him into the first turn before the crowd comes over from the outside. I think they?ll go the first half faster than :49 [seconds], and our horse has the natural speed to go :48 on his own. For him, that?s pretty easy.?
Albertrani expects the track to be fast, even if it is wet ? much in the same way that beach sand is firmer closer to the ocean.
?If it rains hard, and the track is sealed [the dirt packed down by tractors pulling weighted sleds and rollers], the water rolls right off,? he said. ?If the sun comes out, it will be fast by noon time.?
I'm gonna use Unlimited Budget in my exotics but can't see her winning tomorrow. Remember only 1(One) filly has won this Mile & 1/2 Race in the last 100 years. She can get part of the prize though. 
opcorn2
Good Luck with your selections in the 145th running of The Belmont Stakes Morris!!!:0008
opcorn2 Good Luck with your selections in the 145th running of The Belmont Stakes Morris!!!:0008
rain will be a non factor, as you know already. track is already nearly fast.
the filly has put up some monster numbers on paper but the problem with fillys is it is unusual for them to stay at that level for very long without bouncing. she also hurts badly with an outside post position and should lose ground into the 1st turn.
the storyline with Rosie riding her is going to make her slightly over bet as well IMO. Rosie is turning into the new Borel where their mount is overbet simply because of the name. she is not a top tier jockey. not yet anyway.
the filly has put up some monster numbers on paper but the problem with fillys is it is unusual for them to stay at that level for very long without bouncing. she also hurts badly with an outside post position and should lose ground into the 1st turn.
the storyline with Rosie riding her is going to make her slightly over bet as well IMO. Rosie is turning into the new Borel where their mount is overbet simply because of the name. she is not a top tier jockey. not yet anyway.
