Here are reasons I don't like the over.
I think Spurs found a way to contain Nash. In 4th quarter they started trapping him and it worked. Look for Spurs to build on that and hope to contain Nash. If Nash has an off night (either because of Spurs defense or because he is human) you will lose your OVER wager.
Marion plays well Suns usually win and score a lot of pts. Against Spurs, Suns don't get too many fast break pts and Marion is being guarded by Bowen who is exceptional defender. Suns don't run plays for Marion and even if they do, he still has to score with man in his face. Against Mavs and Griz he was used to open shots and easy fast break pts. Not against Spurs.
Spurs forced Amare to score outside paint because Amare is deadly inside paint. Everyone knows Amare is not a great consistent shooter from outside. He very well may struggle in game 2 from outside. In game 1 he was money!
Parker will continue to get shots inside paint but he is hot/cold from outside.
I think there is decent chance Parker struggles from outside and at least 1 of the Suns 3 stars (Marion/Nash/Amare) has an off night. I also doubt J. Jackson (1h) and Barry shoot lights out again. There also is high prob. of Amare getting into foul trouble. In game 1 he picked up 2 quick fouls and played no role in 1q but had monster 2q.
Duncan gets only 1 days rest after playing a full game on his injured ankle. He could be really slowed down.
Spurs are already a great defensive team and they will make adjustments from game 1. So I would expect Spurs to play better defense than they did in game 1. I also would expect Suns would put more effort in defense knowing if they lose this game they prob. lose series.
Lastly, I think Spurs will try and slow it down and make Phoenix win crucial game 2 playing basketball they don't like to play. Spurs can play both ways but will make big effort to slow it down.
