What the 7 1/2 point line means.

[JOE IN NY]

This is not mine I just borrowed it to post here. I think it's worth reading and hope it helps in making the right decision. If not then I'll get bashed. My money is on PHILLY since this morning.

History teaches us lessons!! But if we don't learn from them and correct our mistakes...well...shame on us. If you don't learn from them in sports betting...it cost you ...MONEY!!

So what did we learn? Where have we seen that 7 1/2numbers before, and WHAT was the result, and WHO did we bet?

We saw that 7 1/2 number before just last Saturday. It was the price you had to lay if you took Phila. Or the points you took if you liked the ATL. What was the result? Well you know what happened. Who did we bet? Well most of the public liked the Falcons and Mike Vick!! I ALMOST bet them, but studying the line, and its NON-movement convinced me that they were trying to suck people in on the ATL.

That being said, have we learned our lesson, because I can predict what's going to happen this week BEFORE it happens! NO! NO! NO! I'm not going into the "psychic hotline" 900# business like Dionne Warwick. I'm just going to use the info that the odds maker gives me, and just NOT listen to the misinformation that will be spread by the print and television media.

It's very simple really. Just cross out all the media references to Atlanta and Michael Vick, and pencil in the names Tennessee and Steve McNair. The point being, that the one thing that WON'T change this week, and that will be the LINE!! WHY? For the same reason as last week!! They wanted you to take Atlanta last week, and THIS week they want you to take Tenn.

IF you look at the line last week on the Phil/Atl game, you'll notice it never moved an inch. Sure the money moved around a little making you lay -115 or -105, but the number never moved. And at that figure, 7.5, that was quite unusual NOT to have the number move. I mean they were actually "BEGGING" you to bet the Falcons. You ONLY had to lay -105 when you took the 7.5 points. Even though money was coming in on the Falcons, they kept the line at 7.5, and never moved it down to 7!!! Why not? They must have had an awfully strong opinion on the Eagles in the game, just like they do this week with the Raiders. If you bet the Falcons last weekend, think about WHY you bet them, and if the line influenced you in any way. Of course it did!! Just like it will this week when you start looking at those "juicy" points they're giving "Air McNair"!! Tempting aren't they??? They WERE last week also!!

Your going to start hearing, as if this justifies taking the Titans, that 4 out of the last five years, and the last 3 years, the AFC Championship game was won by the ROAD team!! Let's see...who's on the "road" this week... Well DAMN if you wouldn't KNOW it, ...it's the Titans!!!!!!! Holy Cow...they're even GETTING 7.5 points!!!!! Whoa BABY!!! This is like STEALING!!!
"REMEMBER THE TITANS!!!" Oh!! You're going to remember them all right, but not for the right reason!!! You're going to remember them for separating you from your bankroll!!

If you liked Atlanta last game, please don't fall in love with the Titans THIS game!! Come to think of it, how come, just like the Jets, you keep hearing how many games in a row the Titans have won, but no one ever seems to mention the Raiders? Oh, they DO but as an afterthought, not with the same verve that they do the Titans!! Watch that line carefully this week folks, and don't let the odds maker get to you like he did the last time the line was 7.5! If he keeps the game at 7.5, you know what he's begging you to do!!! Just don't do it!!

 

[Senor Capper]

I reckon

I reckon

it goes to 8 soon. Oakland money usually comes in later in the week. No sooner than Thurs & normally around Friday.
The 7.5 won't go down but its guaranteed to go up.



Go EAGLES !!!
Nothing could be worse for the NFL (or US) to have a TB & Tenn
Super Bowl.

 

[CWood97]

I love the Raiders by 10+ in this one, but I don't necessarily think the books are asking for Tennessee money with this line. We won't know till later in the week (SHOW US THE MONEY!) but I'm guessing it will be pretty well split or an Oakland bias.

 

[TK in VA]

Great point made

Great point made

I've been "playing" the NFL for about 10 years and your point about the books wanting you to take the 7' is right on target. I'm certain someone on this great forum keeps the records, but I can't tell you how many time we've been "hooked" by the hook that Vegas puts out there. How many times have you taken the team getting 3' or 7', thinking the "hook" gives you the advantage, only to LOSE by 10 or more points?
Another big "hook" for me over the years is when Vegas gives us a game where the line is 2' or 6'.... You know in your heart your team will win by 3 or 7, so the hook is the way to go...NOT!!!!

The one thing I've concluded over the years is... Vegas knows what they are doing..don't ever think they don't. How many times do we see a line and say..this is too good to be true....( and of course, it is)
Just my 2 cents....Gl to all

 

[Vegas Dave]

I agree with the points, but its not always true. You can't just blindly bet on a game because of where the line sits.

Believe me, Vegas knows what they are doing.

 

[gjn23]

If it were the case that they really wanted us to take the Falcons +7.5 then Vegas must have been shitting when Vick ran that TD late in the 3rd (oops penalty) or with the Eagles up 7 and 5-6 minutes left or the Eagles up 14 with Atlanta driving during the final 2 minutes.

Believe me the only opinion Vegas has is "what line will get us 50/50 action (or as close as possible). Once a line is set at 7.5 is very rarely will go down to 7. Why have an opinion on a game and try to influence 60 % of the people to bet one way when you can book 80 million in action (split evenly hopefully) and guarantee yourself 4 million???

 

[yyz]

gjn,

Don't think for a minute that the books look for "equal action". That is one of the biggest myths around.

They want to be on the winning side every time, and almost never get "equal action".

They will gamble with their numbers on occasion, and this time of year is famous for that.

Also, you don't know what kind of futures action these books had, either. If they are top heavy on a certain team, they might tilt a line to get more action on the other side.

All points to consider.

 

[Blazer]

Ok, maybe

Ok, maybe

Ok, maybe Elvis is alive. Maybe Ozzy Osborne is speaking english, Jimmy Hoffa is under Giants Stadium, and Britney Spears is still a virgin. Vegas makes the line to hook us into betting a certain team because they know the outcome. :nono:<P>
I call Bullshit. Elvis is Dead, Ozzy is nuts, Jimmy Hoffa is in the Hudson, and I banged Brittney last night. Certainly, Vegas puts out the line to get a 50-50 split. period. To think there is any other motavation is as crazy as believeing in that cloned-baby-cult-thing. :yup<P>
No conspiracy theroy, no talking frozen Walt Disney head, just a 50-50 split. The "hook" is created by a line that teeters on 2 numbers created by a betting public and is created to gain a 50-50 split. Yes, Vegas knows what it is doing. It's called winning no matter what by making juice. :thefinger<P>
So, go to bed Johnny, there are no Monsters under your bed, no Bigfoot in the woods, and no Aliens. Well maybe Aliens, but I think they perfer the Horses.

 

[gjn23]

yyz,

One of the biggest myths around is that Vegas needs/wants to be on the winning side everytime. I'm sure they would like to but a todays casino is in business to make money (yours and mine), not gamble theirs. The odds are on their side every time, in every gaming activity in the casino. The juice guarantees them their profit and they will gladly take it, who cares who covers. Do they get 50/50 action on every game, of course not, but I know that is their main goal in setting the line. The fact is the sportsbook is one of the lowest profit margins in the casino.

Another myth is the general media saying that Vegas is predicting the Raiders to win by 8. The truth of the matter is that they only thing they are predicting is that by setting the line at 8 they expect to get equal action. If they don't they will move the line one way or the other.

The real spread in this game probably should be 5 or so. However, had they set that line, EVERYBODY would bet the Raiders and they would be in a position to get killed if the Raiders covered. If they were into the predictiion business and thought the Raiders were going to destroy the Titans, they would set the line at 11, again they would be setting themselves up to get killed because everyone would take the Titans. By setting the line at 7.5 they are forcing you to think thus getting closer to 50/50 action.

 

[Vegas Dave]

Wasn't Pittsburgh a -7.5 point favorite as well two weeks ago? Or even if it was 8 it would fall in the same category...

So I guess the theory doesn't always work....

P.S. If you believe in the -7.5 point theory, that automatically means that you believe in fixes. Think about it.

P.P.S. Everyone is always looking for a fool proof system that will give you 100% plays in the NFL. No system works, and the best way to win is to cap the games yourself.

 

[yyz]

Well, since a game almost never gets equal action, that means the number they post is wrong. Now, do you think they try to "guess" which way to favor the number? I would certainly think so!

Before they post a number, they have to be willing to move it, also. In this case, 7' is the number in question.

Why 7'?

Wouldn't 7 give them a better shot at a push? So, we have to consider that they make Oakland 7' to make people think about the bet a little more. It stands to reason that they expect more action on the Raiders, so they added the hook. ("If they want Oakland, they will have to pay a price.")

7' is insurance on Oakland money. They want you to take Tennessee. What happens if they get all the money on Tennessee, and have to drop the line to 7 to get Oakland money? Can they afford to do that, and risk getting boned?

If this line should be 5' there is no way they would post 7'

They would be hung out to dry by the big money, and there aint enough "square action" to cover that bet.

I think the linesmakers do try to put up a number that will get decent two way action, but they shade the number the way they want it to go, too.

 

[JOE IN NY]

Two points here. The 7' line guarantees that there will not be a tie on the game. So if there can't be a tie on the game the only other reason they put that number up is when they favor a side. I don't believe in fixes or the tooth fairy. Read the book The Odds it's about the men who make the line. They tell how they do it and why. The book is worth the price if you want to be informed. They gamble just like we do only they are smarter than most and know how to tilt the odds in their favor. They can't fix games but they know how to get an edge. That's all they need to be on the plus side.

 

[louthesz]

i think in a lot of cases they are taking a stand on a side. early in the yr phl was 7' vs nyg. the only reason nyg did not cover was a fumble in the end zone. still think vegas took a side w/phl. (so did i)

 

[S-Love]

Anyone who believes that the books set a line for 50-50 action has a lot to learn. Anyone whose spent even a minimal amount of time monitoring consensus sites would see that.

Better yet, anyone checking out SC's "Show Me the Money" threads can see that often there are many one-sided games.

There are many types of handicapping out there- for me there is nothing more valuable than the "backroom" of the betting markets.

 

[The Big Tease]

I see where you are goin with your thoughts....but as it has been said....this is not true in every case, and it is not true in this case. You have a team (The raiders) that are always public heavy. Imagine the amount of people that are going to bet the raiders -7.5 this week. Now imagine the amount of people that bet the Raiders if they place the line directly on the key number of 7. In my opinion, that is huge. If Vegas does that, there will be so much money on oakland that they will have to root really hard for Tennessee. They dont want that. Making the line 7.5 gives them the chance to get even action. Setting the line at 7.5 gives Vegas a ton of room to adjust, knowing that Oakland is a public heavy team. The line is set just a half point away from a key number. Moving the line from 7.5 to 8, 8.5, 9, or even 9.5 is really no big deal. The nest big move would be to 10, and that is just ridiculous...so the natural line is 7.5. It means nothing. They arent trying to get you suckered in or anything. Oakland is the superior team and they are at home. This line is right, nothing fishy. Cap the game and go with what you come up with. Myself, I dont think you give an extremely good TEAM 7.5 points. This one is going to be close throughout.

Raiders win in a close one 24-21

 

[Jhpga]

7.5 means Vegas is looking for Tenn action.And they dont posts lines to get 50/50 split.First its almost impossible to get 50/50 action so why try.Oakland is a more popular team and they will receive alot of attention from the public.The extra .5 will grab alot of the bad bettors attention trying to grab a backdoor cover with the thoughts.....Tenn can get beat by 7 and I still win money.I honestly thought the line would be under the key number 7...maybe 6.5 but I was shocked when I saw 7.5.The line wont move here locally for me....it might even drop cause all of the action being played by the loyal Titans fans.....

 

[Blazer]

Loyal Fans

Loyal Fans

Jhpga,<P>

I live less than 5 miles away from your golf course. <P>
Locally you will lose points as the week goes on. I hear the same homer radio talk you do. <P>
I use an internet site that doesn't sponsor here so I will not mention there name. My line now is 8. I think the raiders will win but 7.5 or 8 are both a lot of points in a playoff game.

 

[TK in VA]

One last "point"

One last "point"

The point I was trying to make is... I believe that many times,(but not always), the 7' line is a sucker line. I believe that many times in the past, Vegas really feels the game will have a score difference more like 9 or 10 points, but adding the hook is just enough to get the bettors on that side, but ultimately, the bettor will lose inspite of the "hook". This strategy results in moving bettors to that side of the wager, but ultimately, Vegas wins those bets.
I know the hook is described as such because of it's physical appearance....I think it's used to "hook" a bunch of suckers. How often when you're done capping the game, have you seen the hook and had it make your final choice just that much more difficult to play.
Just my 2 cents

 

[JOE IN NY]

I don?t mean to play the devil?s advocate here because I know what I already posted. I just want to say that anything can happen and a good case can be made for all the teams. I have made by bets and won't change them.
I read part of this on an other form and thought that it was so informative & helpfull that I wanted to post it here. I changed part of it to fit my own point of view.
A look back in the past three years we find that.
1. Underdogs have covered the number in all six games played the past three years.
2. Underdogs have won four of those games outright.
3. Totals on the games are evenly split, standing 3-3 over/under.
4. Only one road team was favored in any of the six games-the Minnesota Vikings in 2000-and they lost outright to the New York Giants, 41-0.
5. Defense prevailed in three of the games, where the losers scored a total of 12 points, or an average of 4 points each.
In last year's conference championship games...
Pittsburgh was a 10-point home favorite to New England and lost outright, 24-17.
St. Louis was a 10-point home favorite over Philadelphia and slipped by, 29-24
In the 2000 conference championship games...
Oakland was a 6-point home favorite over Baltimore and lost outright, 16-6.
Minnesota was a 2 1/2-point road favorite and lost at the New York Giants, 41-0.
In the 1999 conference championship games...
Jacksonville was a 7-point home favorite over Tennessee and lost outright, 33-14.
St. Louis was a 14 1/2-point home favorite over Tampa Bay and narrowly won, 11-6.
Will history change this year? If the dog can't win outright will it cover.? All teams are very good to get to this point. Which teams will play without making mistakes and if they a bad game plan will the coach make the right adjustments at half time?If he does will that change the outcome and momentum of the game?I present these questions in hope of balancing the thinking here. I also also end this post with a lot of questions because they will only be answered after the games are played. No one should go over board with their bets. If we learned anything from the past it is nothing is for sure. Don?t bet the milk money! Shit happens!!!!

 

[Blazer]

Good Post Joe.

Good Luck