Whats the deal with sirius?

UGA12

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With satellite radio in its early stages, and sirius being the only game in town since the merger, is this not a bargin at .14 I know there debt is bad, but they have made their first payments and word is their lenders will be willing to renegotiate, can anyone really see this company going under:shrug: where am I wrong in thinking the risk versus reward makes this a buy and hold @.14.

Thanks Guys
 
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selkirk

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both of these companies took on large amount of debt, so the debt is a concern. the interest they had to pay was high during the times when credit was much easier to get....

they have at least 750 million in XM debt coming due this year,

most of this debt will be paid by debt, they have approval to issue 3.5 billion shares, this would dillute existing shareholders. they would probably issued the stock and do a revese split or do it before to drive the stock price... ie. reveres split 1-10 1-50- 1-100 the 1-50 1-100 or higher seems more likely.

the best at this stage a long term shareholder could hope for is that the share price goes up and they are not as dilluted, however it look like they will be.....or lose all of their equity.

have read a few articles that the common shareholders will not be wiped out....not sure though if I am a bond holder why would I want to share ownership of the company if they fail on their debt.

never bought the stock, though it had some good runs, debt was high and did not like it when the two would pay large amounts for content.....

might get sat radio, however will wait to see the merger done, also in Canada there are still two owned by different groups.....may have to buy mine in the US....have no idea why it is cheaper in the US with better options....

at this stage a pure .15 gamble,
most companies that do revesrse splits lose money for their shareholders, however there are a FEW exceptions.


thanks
selkirk
 

UGA12

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Thanks Selkirk, appreciate the information. Will look somewhere else for now, but I still think this thing works out in a few years.
 

selkirk

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it has a good chance to work in the future. the two companies will be able to pay less for content, no more bidding wars between themselves....lower the cost of content by half,maybe more.

advertising a key growth has not been good, however eventually the advertising market will recover, now it is dreadfulll.

will have to grow quickly, and not rely so much on the new car model... much of their growth is from people getting a car and keeping the service after free trial.

they should be able to generate cash, and the new stock will be high enough to attract more investors...ie. reverse split.

the main problem for sat radio, is other devices, like Ipod, and more importantly smart phones, ect. wireless internet will allow people to surf the web for audio, /video. a big challenge going forward.

thanks
selkirk
 

UGA12

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Jul 7, 2003
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With satellite radio in its early stages, and sirius being the only game in town since the merger, is this not a bargin at .14 I know there debt is bad, but they have made their first payments and word is their lenders will be willing to renegotiate, can anyone really see this company going under:shrug: where am I wrong in thinking the risk versus reward makes this a buy and hold @.14.

Thanks Guys


Bought into this @ .15 and sold for very small profit a very short time later:facepalm: Why oh why could I not just go with this one the way my gut was telling me to, damn! $2.23 today:facepalm:
 

selkirk

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UGA you were correct in thinking that it was cheap, in early 2009 there was a great amount of stocks that would fit into the binary column.

ie. the stock would either go to zero, or much, much higher.

I missed a jr. gold stock at one time traded over $3at one time $5, then went to 1.81, they had the gold and mine would start up in 2-3 years. gold was also going up, though I missed most of the play, how over $8.

why was not sure how fast the credit markets would free up, that was my main concern....was sure the credit markets would improve but not sure when....should have taken the gamble, for $2 it was a good one.

thanks
selkirk
 
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