- Mar 2, 2006
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The NBA is full of superstars and some of the best athletes in the world. Even the bench warmers are some of the best basketball players alive. It?s not an easy path to the NBA. There are 500,000 high school basketball players. 2.9% of male high school basketball players will play in college, and between .03% of all high school players play in the NBA. These players are the most talented players in the world. So why are some teams, even with some of the best talent from this small pool of players, not relevant in the NBA?
Coaching matters, on every level of sports play. Gregg Popovich may be unmatched at this level with his current peers, as evidenced by his ability to keep a small market team relevant year after year. His records speak for themselves, and in pro sports it is difficult to keep a team playing excellent year after year with all the off-season maneuvering. The Spurs ability to rebound from their devastating loss in the finals last season and currently hold the third best record in the league is impressive in itself. They are one of only two teams at this point in the season to be ranked top seven in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Although the Spurs have had a target on their back for years, Popovich has managed to maintain their style and level of play season to season and this is truly the sign of a great coach.
Another coach who at this point in the season should be considered the front runner for coach of the year is Jeff Hornacek. This Suns team is reminiscent of the super-starless Nuggets from last year. These players are out to prove themselves in the league, and they have played aggressive and fearless under Hornacek?s direction. Before the season, Hornacek said he expected his team to score 103 points per game. To this point, they are averaging 105.1 points per game and are eight in the league in offensive efficiency. They have the ninth best record in the league, and the best ATS record of any team, showing their over achievement at this point. However, unlike some other teams that got off to blazing ATS starts, the linesmakers have been slow to adjust the Sun?s lines, and anyone who chose to fade this team so far this season will know the hurt that the Suns have put on them. Even with the loss of Bledsoe, Hornacek has his team playing at a high level night in and out, and this is the sign of a good coach.
On the other side, there are many teams that entered the season with high expectations and have seriously under achieved to this point. The first one to touch on is the Cleveland Cavaliers. It is becoming quite evident that Mike Brown?s success as a coach earlier in his career may have been entirely due to one King James, as his stint with the Lakers and now with a young, but bright Cavs team have both been less than glowing. Before the season, Brown stressed that he was going to improve the defense of the Cavaliers. To this point in the season they are last in the league in opponents points per possession. Despite having a solid roster and playing in the weaker Eastern conference, the Cavaliers have been far from establishing any consistency, and one can only wonder how Mike Brown has managed to last this long in his job.
Another team with a good young roster is the Pelicans. Monty Williams gets a ?half-pass? because of all the injuries they have endured during this season, but he struggles with in-game management. Of teams holding a double digit lead in games, the Pelicans lead the league this season with losses, having eleven games where they were unable to close out opponents. Despite recent success, Jason Kidd certainly needs to be included in the discussion. One cannot reminisce on the season so far without a loud internal guffaw over ?Spillgate?, and his ability to look like a frozen statue on the bench early in the season certainly didn?t do much to boost his stock. With the roster they overpaid for in Brooklyn, there is nothing short of a near-championship run that will be considered successful. That?s certainly a difficult road for a new coach to travel, but at this level there is really no room for excuses.
It is surprising that no coach has been fired yet up to this point in the season, as there are some other serious contenders beyond even the few discussed above. At this point in the season last year, there were already four coaches who got axed. This season, Maurice Cheeks gets the honor as first coach fired. The Pistons had high hopes as well entering this season, after two big off season acquisitions in Jennings and Smith. Along with their young talented front court, their roster is certainly capable of more, but Cheeks was unable to positively affect his players and get them to play hard on a nightly basis. This is evidenced by the Pistons league worst 33 games in which they have surrendered more points to their opponent than the posted line. The Pistons are third to last in the league in percent of baskets assisted, showing their lack of team chemistry. As outsiders, we can never know what really happened in the Piston?s organization, but handling egos of young players can be a difficult task. Good coaches preach discipline, selflessness, and strategically sound play, and these are areas that the Pistons have failed in so far this season.
According to recent empirical evidence, teams have reacted well in their first game after a coach has been fired. The NBA is all about motivation and the firing of a prominent figure within the organization can give hope to players and cause them to play hard, if only for a night. Let?s review the past two seasons:
2011-2012 season:
Paul Westphal fired from Kings 1/5/12. Kings win by 3 and ATS as 3 point dog at home vs Bucks.
Flip Saunders fired from Wizards 1/24/12. Wizards win by 15 and ATS as 7 point favorite at home vs Bobcats.
Mike D?Antoni ?resigned? from Knicks 3/14/12. Knicks win by 42 and ATS as 5.5 point favorite vs Blazers at home.
Nate McMillan fired from Blazers 3/15/12. Blazers win by 11 and ATS as 9 point dog vs Bulls on the road.
2012-2013 season:
Mike Brown fired from Lakers 11/9/12. Lakers win by 24 and ATS as 7.5 point favorite at home vs Warriors.
Avery Johnson fired from Nets 12/17/12. Nets win by 16 and ATS as 9.5 point favorite at home vs Bobcats.
Scott Skiles "parts ways" with the Bucks 1/8/13. Bucks win by 9 and ATS as a 6 point favorite at home vs Suns.
Alvin Gentry fired from Suns 1/18/13. Suns win by 10 and ATS as a 3.5 point dog on the road vs the Kings.
In these games, teams are 8-0 SU and ATS, with three of these games being played as a dog. Tonight, the Pistons host the Spurs at home, and this is the perfect chance for them to prove themselves against one of the better teams in the league. The public will tend to over react in this situation as well, thinking that the turmoil within the organization will be a distraction for the players. Who knows, it might be, but based on past results this is a spot where I like to play on the team that is undergoing change, and hope that it adds some intensity and edge to their performance. In an extremely long season where energy can wax and wane on any given night, every team is beatable. One need look no further than to the not-very-good Magic who have taken down two of the league?s best teams in consecutive games. Anything can happen in this league, and if the Pistons are to have any relevancy left in their season, they should respond big here tonight.
2013-2014 season:
Maurice Cheeks fired from Pistons 2/9/14. Pistons are a 3.5 point dog at home vs the Spurs. Result: TBD
Coaching matters, on every level of sports play. Gregg Popovich may be unmatched at this level with his current peers, as evidenced by his ability to keep a small market team relevant year after year. His records speak for themselves, and in pro sports it is difficult to keep a team playing excellent year after year with all the off-season maneuvering. The Spurs ability to rebound from their devastating loss in the finals last season and currently hold the third best record in the league is impressive in itself. They are one of only two teams at this point in the season to be ranked top seven in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Although the Spurs have had a target on their back for years, Popovich has managed to maintain their style and level of play season to season and this is truly the sign of a great coach.
Another coach who at this point in the season should be considered the front runner for coach of the year is Jeff Hornacek. This Suns team is reminiscent of the super-starless Nuggets from last year. These players are out to prove themselves in the league, and they have played aggressive and fearless under Hornacek?s direction. Before the season, Hornacek said he expected his team to score 103 points per game. To this point, they are averaging 105.1 points per game and are eight in the league in offensive efficiency. They have the ninth best record in the league, and the best ATS record of any team, showing their over achievement at this point. However, unlike some other teams that got off to blazing ATS starts, the linesmakers have been slow to adjust the Sun?s lines, and anyone who chose to fade this team so far this season will know the hurt that the Suns have put on them. Even with the loss of Bledsoe, Hornacek has his team playing at a high level night in and out, and this is the sign of a good coach.
On the other side, there are many teams that entered the season with high expectations and have seriously under achieved to this point. The first one to touch on is the Cleveland Cavaliers. It is becoming quite evident that Mike Brown?s success as a coach earlier in his career may have been entirely due to one King James, as his stint with the Lakers and now with a young, but bright Cavs team have both been less than glowing. Before the season, Brown stressed that he was going to improve the defense of the Cavaliers. To this point in the season they are last in the league in opponents points per possession. Despite having a solid roster and playing in the weaker Eastern conference, the Cavaliers have been far from establishing any consistency, and one can only wonder how Mike Brown has managed to last this long in his job.
Another team with a good young roster is the Pelicans. Monty Williams gets a ?half-pass? because of all the injuries they have endured during this season, but he struggles with in-game management. Of teams holding a double digit lead in games, the Pelicans lead the league this season with losses, having eleven games where they were unable to close out opponents. Despite recent success, Jason Kidd certainly needs to be included in the discussion. One cannot reminisce on the season so far without a loud internal guffaw over ?Spillgate?, and his ability to look like a frozen statue on the bench early in the season certainly didn?t do much to boost his stock. With the roster they overpaid for in Brooklyn, there is nothing short of a near-championship run that will be considered successful. That?s certainly a difficult road for a new coach to travel, but at this level there is really no room for excuses.
It is surprising that no coach has been fired yet up to this point in the season, as there are some other serious contenders beyond even the few discussed above. At this point in the season last year, there were already four coaches who got axed. This season, Maurice Cheeks gets the honor as first coach fired. The Pistons had high hopes as well entering this season, after two big off season acquisitions in Jennings and Smith. Along with their young talented front court, their roster is certainly capable of more, but Cheeks was unable to positively affect his players and get them to play hard on a nightly basis. This is evidenced by the Pistons league worst 33 games in which they have surrendered more points to their opponent than the posted line. The Pistons are third to last in the league in percent of baskets assisted, showing their lack of team chemistry. As outsiders, we can never know what really happened in the Piston?s organization, but handling egos of young players can be a difficult task. Good coaches preach discipline, selflessness, and strategically sound play, and these are areas that the Pistons have failed in so far this season.
According to recent empirical evidence, teams have reacted well in their first game after a coach has been fired. The NBA is all about motivation and the firing of a prominent figure within the organization can give hope to players and cause them to play hard, if only for a night. Let?s review the past two seasons:
2011-2012 season:
Paul Westphal fired from Kings 1/5/12. Kings win by 3 and ATS as 3 point dog at home vs Bucks.
Flip Saunders fired from Wizards 1/24/12. Wizards win by 15 and ATS as 7 point favorite at home vs Bobcats.
Mike D?Antoni ?resigned? from Knicks 3/14/12. Knicks win by 42 and ATS as 5.5 point favorite vs Blazers at home.
Nate McMillan fired from Blazers 3/15/12. Blazers win by 11 and ATS as 9 point dog vs Bulls on the road.
2012-2013 season:
Mike Brown fired from Lakers 11/9/12. Lakers win by 24 and ATS as 7.5 point favorite at home vs Warriors.
Avery Johnson fired from Nets 12/17/12. Nets win by 16 and ATS as 9.5 point favorite at home vs Bobcats.
Scott Skiles "parts ways" with the Bucks 1/8/13. Bucks win by 9 and ATS as a 6 point favorite at home vs Suns.
Alvin Gentry fired from Suns 1/18/13. Suns win by 10 and ATS as a 3.5 point dog on the road vs the Kings.
In these games, teams are 8-0 SU and ATS, with three of these games being played as a dog. Tonight, the Pistons host the Spurs at home, and this is the perfect chance for them to prove themselves against one of the better teams in the league. The public will tend to over react in this situation as well, thinking that the turmoil within the organization will be a distraction for the players. Who knows, it might be, but based on past results this is a spot where I like to play on the team that is undergoing change, and hope that it adds some intensity and edge to their performance. In an extremely long season where energy can wax and wane on any given night, every team is beatable. One need look no further than to the not-very-good Magic who have taken down two of the league?s best teams in consecutive games. Anything can happen in this league, and if the Pistons are to have any relevancy left in their season, they should respond big here tonight.
2013-2014 season:
Maurice Cheeks fired from Pistons 2/9/14. Pistons are a 3.5 point dog at home vs the Spurs. Result: TBD
