Why does this things happens? what should people do with -200 games?

[Doctor Baseball]

Well, i guess you people now what Im talking about, cards and A?s. A?s cost me a 4 team parlay, dodgers and over, white sox. That really pissed me off.
Now, i used to go to this sportsbook in which people only bet 10 dlls on 5 teams parlay, but not only that they bet the dogs or the totals, i had saw tickets of 10dlls to win 800 or more. Some guy said "is better to lost a +170 than a -200" (for me is the same), but know I think that I got it, what this guy was trying to said is that when you bet at a +170 team you are expecting to lose, while the opposite happens when you bet a -200.
Now, we all now that -200 is not equal to victory. -200 just mean that the pitcher would win 2 of every 3 games.
So Im asking for your advice guys, what should I (or we) do:
1.- Back the better pitcher and team and lay the chalk.
2.- Take a shoot and bet the dog, even sometimes our team only score 1 run.
3.- Stay away.

What do you said guys? and for last just one question:
does anyone knows which are the stats for
-200 or more this season? How about a play on the +1.5 run?

Thanks.

 

[yyz]

Laying that kind of wood, and losing, hurts.

Then again......any loss hurst.

Too many guys see -200 or more as an "instant winner". Also, don't forget that you had a huge road favorite. (Oakland)

Shrug your shoulders and get back at it today!

Remember: If a bet fails to cover, it doesn't matter what kind of odds you were getting. Favorites lose every day. Yesterday, they went 9-7

Also, when playing parlays, remember the obvious:

The more plays you have, the more chances you have to lose.

Another thing. You said something about taking a shot and betting the dog. Well, only if you think they will win! If the Brewers played at Arizona today, and Randy Johnson was going against Alan Levrault, and the line was AZ -450, that would not be incentive enough for me to take the Brewers.

Do yourself a favor......look at the games without looking at the lines. Pick who you like, and then look at the lines. Bet the games that you liked that were underdogs.

Enjoy your stay at Madjacks, and good luck to you!

 

[fletcher]

yyz you just said a point that is my first key and the biggest for me. i do my work out without anylines in baseball,get my play and know why,then use the line to see how much i am putting on it.

 

[Happy'Capper]

Exactly correct fellas,

The size of a line should never dictate your selection. Just because something is -200 doesn't make it an instant winer. Also, just because something is +200 doesn't make it have instant value either. Games should be played on some strength or weakness of teams on a day to day basis, whether it be a matchup, bullpen fatigue, hitting, or whatever strengths or weaknesses your handicapping produces, not on a number. I handicap all the games before I even look at the numbers that are put up. Otherwise I feel you are influenced by the lines books put up.

My two cents,
HC

 

[Never Caught Up]

Good points.

Another thing to keep in mind is what -200 really means. -200 equates to a play that the line says is going to win 66% of the time and lose 33% of the time. -300 equates to a play that the line says is going to win 75% of the time and lose 25% of the time.

A lot of had the Cards yesterday. The line was saying the Card should win about 68% of the time and lose 31% of the time. I think it was a good bet even though it lost because I think they would win that game at least 7 out of ten times givning me an edge over the 68% line value.

The -1800 line on the fight meant the linemakers were saying the favorite should win 90% of the time and lose 10% of the time. I didn't play it, but if I thought the true odds were 95/5 then -1800 could still be a good bet. Risky if overleveraged, but good. I like the way fletcher always bases his units on the lay instead of the win amount. I have started doing the same and it is working well.

When I lay big chalk I like to think in terms of what the line is saying about loss probability instead of win probability and then expect to take my losses.

Big chalk should never indicate a sure thing. Probability is what it is and not a guarantee.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

i totally agree with you guys...

look at the matchups first, then look at the lines to see if you're gonna get screwed and then plan accordingly just in case those favs lose...

 

[JimO]

Suggest using a parlay to reduce your risk. This way you get the strong favorite working for you without risking more than one unit.

This way if an error or bad break kills your bet, you don't lose big. But if the ball bounces your way and the bet cashes, you are in the money.

If you put a -200 bet in a parlay with say a -110 bet, the parlay pays +186. Having the big plus money payoff is also a good way to build your bankroll.

 

[phoenix566]

If you really like the fav to win, but they are big chalk, look at the run line. Last night I liked Oak, but not -180. I played on R/L -1.5 -110. The loss hurt (especially after giving us momentary life in 9th), however not as much as -180 would have. I made the wrong call, but the right bet IMO. Of course, the one run win can come back and bite you in the backside...thats the extra risk you take on for the smaller cost. I will rarely look to bet a team +1.5. I figure if the dog is live, I'll take my chances they win outright for the higher payout.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

but....IF the dog covers the +1.5 spread but doesn't win, isn't it better to get the money won then to see a dog lose outright and lose that 100 bucks?

I like betting the +1.5 runline sometimes.

 

[neverteaseit]

Not trying to be a smart ass but I think I read a thread where I.E. said it best. 99% of the people gambling on the internet don't know how to take a loss. I may have misquoted but I think I am close. Big favs don't always win. If they did we wouldn't have a place to gamble at.

Regardless of whether it was -200 or +200 a loss is a loss and they do happen. You have to analyze all factors when laying the number or taking it. Bullpens are one of the biggest IMO. Laying chalk on a high priced pitcher is fine sometimes but lets say he only goes 7 and the game is close and the pen has been overworked then that -200 has went to crap IMO. Now its even steven. Perfect example is Pedro Martinez how many times did he leave a game this year with he lead but the pen couldn't hold it. Laying -300. There are many more factors involved. You have to look at the whole game itself not just who is pitchin.I think fletch can give you some value aspect as to looking at a game from a coaching perspective, if he cared to chime in. Not sure if there is a guaranteed method but analysis of the whole game and not the number is where to start. Once again don't take this post wrong just giving my perspective. Gl to all.

[This message has been edited by neverteaseit (edited 07-24-2001).]

 

[Never Caught Up]

Ooohhh! Here is a great example in my opinion of a heavy chalk plays that is worth looking at.

Seattle is 8-1 at home behind Freddie Garcia today (Tuesday) and 11-4 in home series openers this year. Kansas City is 4-12 in road series openers.

Line is SEA -250 (POD line)

-250 equates to between 70 and 71 per cent wins needed to break even. I think Seattle should win this game at least 3 out of four times or 75% (which equates to SEA -300) so I am going to lay the big chalk on the heavy favorite.

Note: I am only going to play three units on the game which means I will lay the same three units I would on any other three unit play. If I win the payoff will be smaller, but a small payoff is better than no payoff and if I lose it will feel the same as if I lost three units on a dog.