Why's This Line Drop'n

[eztds]

Tor/NY opens at -2 and goes to -1 when.....

TORONTO (15-12)
-Wilkens will be without Olajuwon tonight due to the toe. Olajuwon didn't even make the trip to NY.

-You may say.....so what.....the Raptors have done just fine without him. Tor has won the last 3 WITH Montross while losing the 4 prior to that WITH Olajuwon at center.

-You may say....a Tor team WITH Montross at center is a winning combination! However, I'd have to respectfully disagree because....

--->the level of competition Tor has faced in the last 3 fell off considerably.

Raptors' Last 3:

Miami (5-20) vs. Zo at center
Chicago (4-21) vs. Miller at center
Indiana (16-13) vs. Foster at center

-The 102-90 Indy win being the only quality one of the 3 inwhich Montross got 7 pts. and 4 rbs. However, against the likes of Chicago and Miami Montross had a total of 0 pts. and 5 boards in 2 games!

-It's evident that this Raptor team "drops off" at center with Montross who's averaging 1.6 pts. and 1.8 rbs per game....to...Olajuwon's 8.5 pt and 7.7 rbs.

-If Miller and Zo can hold Montross to 2 pts. and 5 boards.....then what can Camby do??

-Center play will be pivital tonight. Since Olajuwoan went out Carter has carried the team as usual with 27 vs. Miami, 33 vs. Chicago and 23 vs. Indiana. Like dnug said...when Carter sets this Tor team is very, very average at best.

NEW YORK (12-15)
-Is this 12-15 NY team really that bad? Since Chaney took over for Van Gundy he's 1-6 with 4 of those 6 losses by 5 pts. or less!!

-It's been a "weird" Knick season so far. And now we have some finger pointing between players last Friday followed by Saturday team meetings and conferences with Chaney. Then, another loss to the Wiz by 1.

-Camby says the guards (especially Jackson) are shooting too much....not working the ball into him. After the Wiz loss on Saturday he said Friday's comments were "misconstrued" and abruptly ended the post-game interview.

-If that weren't enough, Thomas complained Sprewell and Houston have become the focal point leaving him out!!

-Evidence folks haven't been on the same page.....
-->Thursday Camby goes 0 for 6 vs. the Griz
-->Saturday Sprewell (after a scoreless FH) goes 3 for 16 vs. the Wiz eventhough Thomas, Camby, Houston and Jackson are all in dd.

-Looking at the points over the last 3:

Wash...Spree 6 & Camby 14....Loss
Memp...Spree 24 & Camby 2....Loss
Char...Spree 30 & Camby 17...Win

-I've got a feeling that if the Knicks can get everyone on the same page they're better than their record indicates.

-Tonight's game also has a BIG revenge angle as Tor is the team that showed NY the door in the first round of last season's playoffs. WHAT BETTER TIME FOR CHANEY AND COMPANY TO FOCUS AND GET ON THE SAME PAGE?

-This is NY's last home game before a road trip to Cleveland on Friday. The Knicks need this one after taking a MJ "kill shot" on Saturday and that embarrassing Griz loss on Thursday.

-Team Captain Houston was quoted as saying.."the team needs to internalize the problems, not aiir them in public." Hopefully they did just that.

ON PAPER
-These two teams are statistically similar:

Off Pts..........Tor 93.3 NY 88.8
Def Pts..........Tor 92.3 NY 91.3
Shooting %.......Tor 42.8 NY 43.2
Opp Shooting %...Tor 42.8 NY 42
Off Rb/gm........Tor 43.8 NY 42
Def Rb/gm........Tor 43.7 NY 40.7

-Olajuwon's loss should manifest itself in the rebounding stats and it's time for Camby to "put up" and Spree to "show up".

I'll take a desparate Knick team....at home give'n 1....with a playoff revenge motive.....and an Olajuwonless Raptor team look'n good to people after 3 staright wins over underlings.

Just hope Camby, Chaney and the boys have finally "aired it all out" and got on the same page. If they did....they win tonight.

21-14 YTD ez



[This message has been edited by eztds (edited 12-25-2001).]

 

[phoenix566]

I like your thinking in this one.

My local gave me a nice sized free play for x-mas and I'm gonna go with you and the knicks to try for it. would be a nice x-mas present to NY if they can bring this one home (and to me as well

). Wouldn't hurt if JT is on our side

.... already got Raymond and KC so the trifecta would be sweet

good luck to us and merry x-mas.

 

[Hoops]

I think you are putting too much emphasis on Olajuwon. He is nothing more than a role-player at this stage in his career..8pts, 8 boards, 2 blocks per game, only taking 8 shots and playing 27 minutes per game...besides the blocks those are very mediocre numbers. Montross starts, but he is only there to play 15 minutes, give some fouls, and take-up space underneath. Leaves the rest of the team with more shots since they don't have to worry about giving Olajuwon a bone every now and then. Davis came back from his injury 4 games ago, he slides over to center for a good portion of the games, and Clark comes off the bench..if he got 30 minutes consistently he would be a 13ppg, 10rpg, 3bpg type of player..much more productive than Olajuwon. And against the Knicks they really don't need a center..Camby is a power forward playing the position and with Clark, Toronto has a lefty clone of him (in most respects). Olajuwon isn't enough of a factor to determine what Toronto does in regular season games..they got him in hopes of possibly turning back the clock and having a few strong games in the postseason.

The injury I would be more concerned with if I was backing Toronto (and I am) is not having Childs. Wiliams is going to have to give them at least 35 minutes..and hopefully he can match the success he had against NY in last season's playoffs.

 

[dnuggets]

Why is the line dropping?

Heres why

Toronto has won there last 2 at msg.

They won 3 out of 4 last year in the series.

They won 6 out of 9 overall last year vs the knicks.

Ny is 1-4 in there last 5 at home, 2-5 in there last 7.

Ny has only beaten 3 teams around or above .500 all year

Portland by 7 in a game they trailed all game

Indy by 2 a missed oneal layup or this one goes ot.

Washington by 2 in the first game of the year when the wiz were awful then turned around and beat them a couple days ago without there leading scorer.

The rest the knick home wins...

Atlanta, Bulls, Heat, Rockets and the Cavs.

Raptors at 6-3 on the road in there last 9.

People need to realize ny is just a bad team, and camby is starting to gripe about hes shots and making weird comments.

I dont think ill bet on toronto because there playing bad basketball and davis has been eaten alive since moving to pf again because hes lost all hes quickness advantage.

These would be the reasons for money on toronto, if i bet this game id take toronto but i cant bet on a team playing this bad...i dont think..

 

[phoenix566]

Hoops, I put great respect into your analysis and picks, I just hope you are wrong this time. Either way, I feel this game will go down to the wire before a winner is determined. Good luck to you and Merry X-mas!!

Off to the feast.....

 

[bosco]

I agree on the down to the wire. I like the under, but the possible OT scares me

GL!!

 

[eztds]

Hoops and dnug....appreciate your taking the time to add some input on this Hoilday.

Hoops, I probably hit the Olajuwon issue a bit harder than necessary.

However, IF the Knicks SHOW UP and PLAY...Olajuwon and Childs will both be missed. The larger question in this game won't be the injuries as currently known.....but whether a focused Knicks team takes the floor with revenge on their mind tonight?

Should either Spree or Camby be "no shows" then your backing the right side here.

dnug, I saw those trends in Ray's thread and agree they definitely favor the Raptors. My thought is that this Knicks team has its' back to the wall and some Raptor injuries have opened the door for NY. As I pointed out....statistically these are two very similar teams.

Chaney must right this ship SOON! Tonight is MORE important for NY than Tor.....IMHO.

phoenix...if JT makes NY a play...a little MoJo sure couldn't hurt. If JT goes Tor...then no MoJo PLEASE and let the chips fall where they may! LOL

You tweaked the MoJo right on the money for Sunday's Mil/San An under. Outstanding, judicious use of the MoJo....gotta be conservative early in the season. DON'T WANTA RUN OUTA MOJO BEFORE SEASONS END! ez

 

[dnuggets]

Everything you said makes sense, but you even said "if" i try not to bet things i use that word in.....

 

[eztds]

Alright dnugs....point well taken! How's this sound......

Tonight I'm betting the Knicks have enough "Team Pride" to show up and revenge last season's playoff losses.

No ifs....ands....or....buts....ez

 

[dnuggets]

Lol.....that a boy ez you tell those knicks you just need to get in the locker room i can hear it now

"lets win one for ezzzzzz"

merry christmas everyone....

 

[Hoops]

Ez- Good call..even without Camby they got the job done.

 

[eztds]

Hoops.....

That was lucky.....without Camby. Knight stepped up big and Spree showed up. Unreal Knick shooting in that 1st period.

Thanks again for your input......as it's always outstanding and on target. You were absolutely right about Childs. Williams had a relatively quite game as compaired to his playoff effort last season.

I love the work cappers like you do in this forum. It's work done with professionalism personified by a cast of characters for sure! ez

 

[phoenix566]

nice call ez!! i was away from a computer all day so I didn't even know JT was on our side, hence the lack of mojo. perhaps the mojo from MJ's happy holidays thread was just enough to get the job done

I did get to watch the end of the game. turned it on just as raptors made it a 86-85 game. typical Knicks to give up a 12 point HT lead and a 20 point 1Q lead, but they had just enough to hold on tonight. keep note of this as it is not an anomoly with them. when they have a HT lead, more often then not, they should be a go against for a 2ND half play. I am curious what the stats for their second halfs are and if they truly do back up this 'observation'.

cya in the thread tomorrow. the mojo will be awaiting the master