It's fun to see big games play out along the lines you expected. It's nice to see solid officiating after the embarrassing crap I've been seeing in the Bowl games. Let's hope fun and nice continue.
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Green Bay(-7) over Seattle (1.50 Biscuits)
Carolina(-3) over Dallas looked real good going in, but my best bet for the Wild Card games is Green Bay atoning for the only postseason home loss in franchise history.
I'd venture that 95 out of 100 Packer fans saw the writing on the wall last year when a decimated squad limped into the postseason and home field was about the only hope for any salvation. As it turned out, only a courageous touchdown reception by Donald Driver before he left the game avoided a shutout against Atlanta. Are the storylines likely to be any different this Sunday?
Not only are the Packers in robust health this time (all things considered in January in the NFL), but there were significant midseason acquisitions of NT Grady Jackson and CB/S Michael Hawthorne that have upgraded a versatile and opportunistic defense. While the Packers will still not be mistaken for the best tackling team in the league, it is an area of accontability that has produced noticeable improvement. Al Harris at corner is a concern, but at the moment he doesn't scare the crap out of me because of his playoff experience and the fact both he and Hawthorne have definitely stepped up their play recently.
A stellar OL ahead of the two headed monster of Favre and Green will dictate the action to the Seattle defense, and not vice versa. In that scenario, I don't think you'll hear Mike Holmgren or Ray Rhodes say what is the dumbest oft-repeated line of the season: The key against the Packers is stopping Ahman Green and making Brett Favre try to beat you. While Rhodes has shored up a sieve of a defense, and there are athletes that display plenty of speed and effort in getting after the ball, breakdowns in gap discipline, being controlled by a strong OL, and failing to create favorable situations on first and third down are still Seahawk calling cards under Holmgren's tenure.
Unless Favre goes goofy time and again, or his lineman are playing out of character, the best formula Seattle has for slowing the Packers is ball control and productivity out of their very capable offense, but I have my doubts about whether that ticket will get punched on a slow or slick tundra in cold weather in a playoff atmosphere on the road. In this regard, although the Packers made a commitment this year to rely on more speed with their defense, this defense remains built for playing in these conditions and not stretched out over a fast carpet, and that difference plays out time after time. Moreover, the Packers have a decent record of containing west coast style offenses (San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Philadelphia, even Tampa Bay, etc.)
Irvin Favre was an intimate member of the Packer family. The Packers did enough to get by against the B squad of Denver, but something of a flat spot was almost inevitable off the Monday night game in Oakland, particularly in the case of an emotionally drained Brett Favre, but I'd say they came out at the end with an emotional bump from a dramatic sequence of plays ( a goal line stand - a 98 yard jaunt - and a special teams touchdown), followed by a surreal entrance into the playoff tournament. Seattle battled a third straight divisional foe, slayed the road albatross hanging around their neck, and avoided a bitter disappointment by earning their way into the playoffs.
Seattle is a capable team, probably feeling disrespected, with something to prove and little to lose, but without playoff experience, homefield advantage or No. 4. Maybe the Packers do not have a deep team chemistry under Mike Sherman, there is nothing going on in that locker room, and they rode the crest of a very small wave that has hit the rocks. Maybe Seattle has found a swagger and is ready to hit the road again and launch into all comers. Maybe Seattle matches up beautifully with the Packers and two weeks to prepare for the last meeting disrupted their winning ways and was part of the problem. Maybe the line value in this game is at -3' or -6. Maybe I'm just a hopeless homer even though I went against the Packers in the first Minnesota game, at St. Louis and at Detroit on Thanksgiving. Maybe the numbers lie and my memory fails me about the number of times in September and in January that Green Bay at Lambeau has needed a late score to salt a game away, or needed to preserve a double digit lead against a backdoor cover, and I've been on my feet as the points were scored or the insurrection was quieted.
First and foremost I'm a situational capper, and as if the Packers needed one more thing on their side, there remains the matter of last year's debacle as a burr under the saddle of quite a few playoff veterans. The Packers have earned my biscuits in this one.
GL
