Last year in WC round the road teams went 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU with 2 SU underdog winners, Nawlins & San Diego.
What will this year bring? Cowboys back in the post-season finally and Detroit in the playoffs? Playoffs? Even without Suh, Detroit still has a strong "D" but their achilles this year is they were 1-4 against teams rated in top 16, lone win early vs Green Bay at home. Cowboys were 4-2 against teams in the Top 16 and lost at Detroit LY as a 3 pt dog, 31-30.
OVER 49 Detroit/Dallas (5 units)Indoor game, both are used to playing in that type of climate, Romo will be pumped big time and Stafford returns to his homestate of Texasss! Big Unit Megatron gets a chance to electrify the aerial game where Dallas has a leaky bucket, even vs the Redskins they got chewed up in the air by RGIII. Stafford will do the same vs the Cowboys secondary. The achilles of Detroit is their running game, they haven't had Bush, "that's what she said" in a long time and Joique Bell is running well but he needs help here. He had a decent game vs GB front 7 given the climate and field conditions @ Lambeau on Sunday. Line is Dallas -7 or -7 1/2, big public team giving more than a TD equals high scoring affair. Dallas with bigtime kicking game edge at FG with Bailey. Dallas 34 Detroit 31.
Arizona +5 1/2 (3 units) - OK, let's get this straight, a 7-8-1 team favored by -4 1/2 opening number steams to -5 1/2, yet 54% public on AZ? Sure that does not bode well for the faders of the public line, but breaking this one down. AZ is going to use a backup QB no matter what. They just play SF in the last game of reg season on the rd, now travel east bound to Char-tott, the Queen See-tay and face the Super Man, Cam Newton!! Panthers are dangerous and could put a hurtin on AZ, but Panthers also off hard fought away win vs Falcons and they cruised with a defensive blowout, getting 2 pick 6's off Matty Ice. AZ has some dangerous weapons if Lindley or Stanton can get them the ball. Arizona with one of poorest Pass "D" giving up 7 yards per catch, and both defenses were poor against the run, allowing over 4.2 yards per rush attempt. 5 of last 7 matchups have gone under the total and AZ beat Carolina at home LY getting 3, 22-6 with Carson Palmer at QB. I believe this game will come down to a FG. I give the coaching edge to Bruce Arians and would not be surprised if AZ wins SU. AZ 19 CAR 17.
Pittsburgh -3 (1 unit) Ravens just 1-6 vs teams in Top 16 and off win vs Browns and Ravens did not look good at all. Pissboygh off big home Sunday Night win vs Ben-gals who also made the post-season, and hard runner LeVeon Bell wrenched his knee but no ligament damage, but if you watched the two backup runners for the Steelers, they ran hard and strong as well, something that the Ravens don't do too well at and that's stopping the run. Both teams are Poor Pass "D"s and Pittsburgh beat Ravens 43-23 at home giving 2. Will the Ravens show their real skillz here or will they get wow'd in Pittsburgh? I hedge to Steeler pride side just a tad with their big WRs in Bryant and speedy Brown and Heath Miller getting clutch catches. Steelers by 6, 33-27.
Under 48 1/2 Cincy/Indy (1 unit) - Both played earlier, Indy won 27-0 and shut down Dalton. I believe Green was out and he's still banged up after all those hard hits vs Pittsburgh. Only receiver really doing anything was TE Gresham and he'll be playing I'm sure for Cincy, Sanu was silent and running game was ok for Cincy. Last year Indy beat KC in opening round by 1 pt, 46-45, opening at a 2 1/2 pt fav and closing as a pick. Luck was rested mostly 2nd half vs Tenn on Sunday and he'll want this one badly. Cincy in post-season and big games have been choke monsters. Indy has a bit of a heart and Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, Fleener and the Colt young "D" will be ready in this tilt again. Indy was 1-3 vs Top 10 teams and 4-5 vs Top 16 teams this season, while Bengals were 4-4 vs Top 16 teams. Indy is a 3 1/2 or 4 pt fav in this tilt currently. Can Cincy break their jinx? Indy 23 Cincy 20.
GL!!
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