Winthrop / Liberty thoughts - noon EST tip -

[LA Burns]

taking a look at this game as I thought the line seemed a bit light for a team in Winthrop that finished 17-12 and tied for 2nd in their division of the conference standings at 10-6 vs a team that finished 11-20 and 5-11 in conference

noticed that Liberty made a run through the Big South tourney last year and basically returns the entire team including a bunch of seniors

admittedly don't know a ton about these teams or this conference but based on numbers, etc the Flames look like the play to me (line opened at 4 and seems to be moving towards Liberty)


anyone have any input or info on this one?


burns

 

[dms79]

taking a look at this game as I thought the line seemed a bit light for a team in Winthrop that finished 17-12 and tied for 2nd in their division of the conference standings at 10-6 vs a team that finished 11-20 and 5-11 in conference

noticed that Liberty made a run through the Big South tourney last year and basically returns the entire team including a bunch of seniors

admittedly don't know a ton about these teams or this conference but based on numbers, etc the Flames look like the play to me (line opened at 4 and seems to be moving towards Liberty)


anyone have any input or info on this one?


burns

Take this FWIW, but according to VI, line opened at 7. I don't know if that was one book that originated a shitty line and it moved to 4' the 4 quickly.

All I really have to add is that the line just moved from 4' to 4, so everything you said is spot-on otherwise.

 

[dms79]

Take this FWIW, but according to VI, line opened at 7. I don't know if that was one book that originated a shitty line and it moved to 4' the 4 quickly.

All I really have to add is that the line just moved from 4' to 4, so everything you said is spot-on otherwise.

Also, I'm gonna be square and back Winthrop -4.

 

[IE]

Bookmaker (read from bottom up)


781 Liberty @ 782 Winthrop
03/05/14 09:00am Pacific
Pacific Time Liberty Winthrop
03/04/14 10:29:04pm +4-110 -4-110
03/04/14 02:23:28pm +4?-110 -4?-110
03/04/14 02:23:25pm +4?-121 -4?+100
03/04/14 02:22:38pm +4?-110 -4?-110 (open)

 

[LA Burns]

thanks dms, and yes at the places I use I show the line opening at 4.5 - no matter how you slice it I find the line to be light, esp considering that Winthrop beat Liberty by 11 at Liberty a few weeks ago

watched an interview with Liberty's HC who said that the Flames were playing their best ball of the season in the past few weeks - looks like the 2014 tourney is in the same arena as the 2013 edition, so obviously Liberty feels comfortable there - definitely leaning towards at least a small play on the Flames here

 

[IE]

Ken Pomeroy take on the tourney:

There was truly no dominant team in the Big South this season as six squads finished with between ten and 12 conference wins. Throw in bad-luck Charleston Southern, who finished 6-10, and you have seven teams with virtually identical ratings, and all are capable of winning the automatic bid.

Of course, the structure of the bracket has some impact on the probabilities, and the first-round byes are big here. Even bigger is that the games are played in Coastal Carolina?s building. To the owner of the shiny new arena go the spoils of hosting the tournament. It?s not entirely fair, but I don?t blame anyone for wanting to spend a week in March near the beach.

The Big South tourney will feature lots of points. It ranks fifth among conferences in possessions per game and third in points per possession. There are some competent offenses and a lot of bad defenses in this league. No team allowed fewer than a point per possession in conference play. And if you haven?t seen High Point?s John Brown, then you are missing out on one of the more dynamic players in the country. (I?ll confess I haven?t seen him either.) Yes, he feasts on bad defenses every night, but he does everything well on both ends of the floor, except possibly shoot the three-ball, but I bet he could do that if he wanted.

 

[nole47]

Ken Pomeroy take on the tourney:

There was truly no dominant team in the Big South this season as six squads finished with between ten and 12 conference wins. Throw in bad-luck Charleston Southern, who finished 6-10, and you have seven teams with virtually identical ratings, and all are capable of winning the automatic bid.

Of course, the structure of the bracket has some impact on the probabilities, and the first-round byes are big here. Even bigger is that the games are played in Coastal Carolina?s building. To the owner of the shiny new arena go the spoils of hosting the tournament. It?s not entirely fair, but I don?t blame anyone for wanting to spend a week in March near the beach.

The Big South tourney will feature lots of points. It ranks fifth among conferences in possessions per game and third in points per possession. There are some competent offenses and a lot of bad defenses in this league. No team allowed fewer than a point per possession in conference play. And if you haven?t seen High Point?s John Brown, then you are missing out on one of the more dynamic players in the country. (I?ll confess I haven?t seen him either.) Yes, he feasts on bad defenses every night, but he does everything well on both ends of the floor, except possibly shoot the three-ball, but I bet he could do that if he wanted.

Took Winthrop but 71ct on them little scary

 

[LA Burns]

congrats on the Winthrop hit dms and Nole - ended up leaving it alone, then almost hit Liberty again at halftime but luckily stayed away - just goes to show that familiarity with teams' personnel and coaching staffs generally mean a lot more than funny looking lines, etc


gl to all during the madness - burns

 

[dms79]

congrats on the Winthrop hit dms and Nole - ended up leaving it alone, then almost hit Liberty again at halftime but luckily stayed away - just goes to show that familiarity with teams' personnel and coaching staffs generally mean a lot more than funny looking lines, etc


gl to all during the madness - burns

I couldn't name you a single player from either team or from the PC/Radford 1h I just won 😛😳

 

[Nole]

Took Winthrop but 71ct on them little scary

WTF?


Nice avatar.



:shrug: