Let's get the real games underway!!! :00hour
[First up, I do apologise about a couple of these numbers...I've bet these games over the last 2-3 weeks...
...although most are still widely available (in fact, I can see Caro @ NYG under 41.5 now! :facepalm: ), but I might have got the Miami and Dallas games at the right time. :drinky:
SL v. Arizona under 40.5
Despite a solid pre-season showing, starting a real NFL game for a rookie (Bradford) will be a tough ask, and expect them to rely heavily on Jackson to carry the load.
Zona will be very much a run first team themselves this year...Anderson leading the team doesn't fill much confidence!...and the interesting thing about SL in the pre-season was their run D...4th best @ 3.3 y/carry...2.6 before playing mostly back-ups in the final game.
It could be a long day for the Cards offense...I suspect the 2.70ish for SL is pretty good value :0corn , but will stick with the under for now.
Jax v. Denver OVER 39.5
The Denver defense doesn't look to have improved from last year...allowing yards on the ground far too easily...they've given up 25+ points in 7 of their last 8...are on a 9-0 over run because of it...
...but Orton has lead the offense to 14 points in 3 of the 4 pre-season games he spent any real time in.
The Jags played 2 high scoring games in pre-season and Gerrard has looked very good...they've thrown for over 8 y/pass (3rd best)...I know pre-season games can be misleading, but 2 pretty good offenses and 2 pretty bad D's here.
Detroit @ Chicago OVER 42.5
This one is all about the Lions. Have been very impressed with how Stafford has gone about it so far. He's put up points in every game and the Bears D looks like it will be giving up plenty of points...
...but it's not as bad as the Det D which has continued to leak big plays...67 points in 4 first halves in pre-season!
The Bears scored 37 and 48 last year v. Detroit...Lions put up 20+ in both and look to be improving still
Carolina @ NYG under 41
Panthers played 4 pre-season snoozers and I'm not sure what's going to change. They will run, run and run some more...but again, their defense loks like it will be good enough to keep them in games.
The Giants are still lacking continuality on the O-line, and it showed in the pre-season.
Both teams playing very good run D...Panthers a league best 2.6 y/rush allowed [3.1 after the last game]...Giants pretty good themselves @ 3.3. This should be a grind.
Pittsburgh v. Atlanta under 38
Falcons have scored just 22 points in 4 first halves, so I suspect they'll struggle to move the ball v. the Steelers who will be as tough defensively as ever.
No Rothlisberger (or Leftwich now) of course, they had a 17-17 game (in reg.) last year without him...and the Falcons' run D has been surprisingly solid so far.
Not entirely sure the Falcons deserve to start favs, but either way, I'll be surprised if both teams can get to 20.
Buffalo v. Miami OVER 37
Bills offense has really taken off in the pre-season as Edwards is coming to grips with Gailey's playbook...scored 23+ in 3 of 4.
But, they do seem to be having problems on the defensive end...they have played a couple of good scoring teams in Indi and Cinci, but they've given up big drives and scores early in all games.
Henne lead the Miami offense to a couple of TD's @ Jax, and their run game should be able to move the ball all day.
Both meetings last year topped this number easily.
Dallas @ Washington under 41
The Cowboys offense has been just awful so far...MASSIVE problems with their O-line means they simply haven't been able to run the ball at all, av'ing 2.5 y/carry...despite playing Cinci (21st) and Oakland (30th, 5.1 y/ca)...
...Romo has been sacked numerous times, and the first string offense has scored just one single TD all pre-season.
Despite exploding out of the blocks v. Buff (who look to be poor defensively anyway...and their numbers weren't even that flash...200 yards passing, ~3.00 y/r)...Wash have since scored just 9 offensive points in 3 first halves (one with McNabb...although now he looks doubtful for the opener anyway!)...
...and Dallas does look to have a very solid defense.
Two meetings last year were 6-7 and 0-17!
Good Luck all
[First up, I do apologise about a couple of these numbers...I've bet these games over the last 2-3 weeks...
...although most are still widely available (in fact, I can see Caro @ NYG under 41.5 now! :facepalm: ), but I might have got the Miami and Dallas games at the right time. :drinky:
SL v. Arizona under 40.5
Despite a solid pre-season showing, starting a real NFL game for a rookie (Bradford) will be a tough ask, and expect them to rely heavily on Jackson to carry the load.
Zona will be very much a run first team themselves this year...Anderson leading the team doesn't fill much confidence!...and the interesting thing about SL in the pre-season was their run D...4th best @ 3.3 y/carry...2.6 before playing mostly back-ups in the final game.
It could be a long day for the Cards offense...I suspect the 2.70ish for SL is pretty good value :0corn , but will stick with the under for now.
Jax v. Denver OVER 39.5
The Denver defense doesn't look to have improved from last year...allowing yards on the ground far too easily...they've given up 25+ points in 7 of their last 8...are on a 9-0 over run because of it...
...but Orton has lead the offense to 14 points in 3 of the 4 pre-season games he spent any real time in.
The Jags played 2 high scoring games in pre-season and Gerrard has looked very good...they've thrown for over 8 y/pass (3rd best)...I know pre-season games can be misleading, but 2 pretty good offenses and 2 pretty bad D's here.
Detroit @ Chicago OVER 42.5
This one is all about the Lions. Have been very impressed with how Stafford has gone about it so far. He's put up points in every game and the Bears D looks like it will be giving up plenty of points...
...but it's not as bad as the Det D which has continued to leak big plays...67 points in 4 first halves in pre-season!
The Bears scored 37 and 48 last year v. Detroit...Lions put up 20+ in both and look to be improving still
Carolina @ NYG under 41
Panthers played 4 pre-season snoozers and I'm not sure what's going to change. They will run, run and run some more...but again, their defense loks like it will be good enough to keep them in games.
The Giants are still lacking continuality on the O-line, and it showed in the pre-season.
Both teams playing very good run D...Panthers a league best 2.6 y/rush allowed [3.1 after the last game]...Giants pretty good themselves @ 3.3. This should be a grind.
Pittsburgh v. Atlanta under 38
Falcons have scored just 22 points in 4 first halves, so I suspect they'll struggle to move the ball v. the Steelers who will be as tough defensively as ever.
No Rothlisberger (or Leftwich now) of course, they had a 17-17 game (in reg.) last year without him...and the Falcons' run D has been surprisingly solid so far.
Not entirely sure the Falcons deserve to start favs, but either way, I'll be surprised if both teams can get to 20.
Buffalo v. Miami OVER 37
Bills offense has really taken off in the pre-season as Edwards is coming to grips with Gailey's playbook...scored 23+ in 3 of 4.
But, they do seem to be having problems on the defensive end...they have played a couple of good scoring teams in Indi and Cinci, but they've given up big drives and scores early in all games.
Henne lead the Miami offense to a couple of TD's @ Jax, and their run game should be able to move the ball all day.
Both meetings last year topped this number easily.
Dallas @ Washington under 41
The Cowboys offense has been just awful so far...MASSIVE problems with their O-line means they simply haven't been able to run the ball at all, av'ing 2.5 y/carry...despite playing Cinci (21st) and Oakland (30th, 5.1 y/ca)...
...Romo has been sacked numerous times, and the first string offense has scored just one single TD all pre-season.
Despite exploding out of the blocks v. Buff (who look to be poor defensively anyway...and their numbers weren't even that flash...200 yards passing, ~3.00 y/r)...Wash have since scored just 9 offensive points in 3 first halves (one with McNabb...although now he looks doubtful for the opener anyway!)...
...and Dallas does look to have a very solid defense.
Two meetings last year were 6-7 and 0-17!
Good Luck all
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