Wk-10 Formulas Picks & Season Record!!!

[SMOKE JENSEN]

2002 SEASON


SEASON RECORD
---------------------
W-59
--------------------
L-58
--------------------- -----------This is just the systems record.
No outside play included.
T-7
----------------------




-------------------------------------------------
STARTING BANKROLL
$21,000
-------------------------------------------------

CURRENT BANKROLL STATUS
$15,795- (-$5,205)
-------------------------------------------------

CURRENT UNIT SIZE
$775
------------------------------------------------

WEEKLY RESULTS:
-----------------------
WK-1
W-4 L-7 T-2
------------------------
WK-2
W-8 L-6
------------------------
WK-3
W-6 L-4 T-1
------------------------
WK-4
W-8 L-1
------------------------
WK-5
W-5 L-8
-----------------------
WK-6
W-6 L-6 T-1
----------------------
WK-7
W-5 L-6 T-2------( And two plays outside the system.....W-1 L-1)
----------------------
WK-8
W-8 L-4
----------------------
WK-9
W-5 L-8 T-1
---------------------
WK-10
W-4 L-8
--------------------




Well now the formula has favorites all over the place. But I have to go with it. Its getting late so I've moved my play size up to $755. This is due in part to $$$ won with Thunders plays in the NBA. Actual bankroll size-($22,176). Thanks Thunder.





JACK-2.5

MINN+1

PHILL-9

BALT-5

N ENGLAND-4

N ORLEANS-4

TENN-9.5

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

G BAY-9.5

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

PITT -5

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

RAMS-5.5

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

ARIZONA -3

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

SAN FRAN -6

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

NYJ-2.5

OVER40



2200 TO WIN 2000 ON EACH


GOING FOR A BIG HIT.

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

Plans not working. I'm considering dropping out and requesting what's left of my bankroll back. Thought I had something going. I mean 58.3% the last 3 years if you used this thing. I guess the law of averages caught up with it. Will play tonights pick and then make up my mind. Need to rethink the system and try to fiqure how to cut down the # of games played for next season. After watching how many games are won ats in the last 4 min. I wonder if a system on how teams perform in the last 4 min would be good. :shrug:







OAKLAND +7---BOUGHT THE I/2 PT.---$1200/1000

 

[Scarecrow]

Smoke---

I fell into this trap several years ago...where you identify a strong system/trend only to have it collapse when used for the current year. I'm not a statistician or math whiz...just learned that you can find any number of systems/trends that win consistantly using past records and then system reverses and goes against you. Same thing happens for stock market system plays.

One way that I found to work around this problem is to go back 2, 3 or 4 years...start there and work back 3 or 4 seasons...then you can forward test your system findings without actually betting on your selections. I have lost more money "playing" my sure fire system selections before I realized the method explained above.

Hope this helps and good luck!

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

Thanks for the advice Scarecrow. I checked this formula against the spread the last 3 seasons before this year. It hit every year. It took me almost 6 months to do this. It gave an average of 11.5 plays a week. Too many I know. But it hit. I don't have any confidence in it now. I'm a self employed car dealer for the last 15 years. I manange money well and have learned discipline in that time. I believe I'm at least that far ahead of the game. So win or lose tonight. I will discontinue the quest. I will retool and rethink the system. Of course, I will play come playoffs. I just love that time of the season. I have kept all my weekly results for the past 3 seasons and this season so far on disk. I believe there is certain point diff. and situations it hits better on. That will lower my # of plays next season. Thanks again for the advice.


SMOKE

 

[theGibber1]

Plans not working. I'm considering dropping out and requesting what's left of my bankroll back. Thought I had something going. I mean 58.3% the last 3 years if you used this thing.

This is the craziest damn year of football i have ever seen.. its the kind of year when formulas need to be thrown out the window.. anyone can beat anyone, on any sunday.. look at the colts for god sake!! i have never seen so many dogs come in EVER..

i have been experimenting with a system of my own the last couple of weeks..

every dog across the board..

you would not believe how well it is doing..
7-2 this week..

so hang in there smoke.. systems cant work every year.. maybe you should put it away and next year it will probably go 65%

good luck smoke.. hope to see you continue to post

 

[lostinamerica]

What thegibber1 said.

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

Thanks Gibber1. Your a fine handicapper. I should have gotten on your back and rode you like a horse. But I wanted to try the NFL on my own. I love it. Stubborn I guess. Wish you luck.



SMOKE

 

[theGibber1]

rode you like a horse

well OK but you might have to ask my wife first:shrug:

lol

GL smoke

 

[Topdog]

""TIMING""

""TIMING""

Hey Smoke, This is still a good time to follow the hot cappers. Keep in mind two things, (1) We are competing against a tough opponet; the lines makers (2) The hardest times to bet a sport are at the beginning and end of a season. These times seem least predictable.

Keep it Positive, Topdog