GB -5.5
League: 5-17-1 (Av. loss 12.2) away 3+ dog, off a 21+ ats win as home 3+ dog. [Min]
1-12 (Av. loss 14.2) if opp last had 30+ mins TOP.
Favre and his pass happy D face off against the 2nd worst pass D in the NFL...already a 23-16 victory AT Minny, with Favre going 32/45 for 344 and 2 TD's.
Minny's offense revolves soley around Peterson, who again had a big one last week...but interesting to note that the 3 games Min have won they've scored 24+...in the 5 they've lost they've scored 17 or less.
Green Bay have the 5th best scoring D, allowing just 17.8 ppg...and importantly v. the Vikes, they are 8th best v. the run, and equal 6th in ypr @ 3.7.
Besides anything else, the Pack are 7-1, and 6-1-1 ats afterall!!
Oakland v. Chicago over 37.5
League: 18-3 over (Av. total 39.9...av. score 49.0!) away fav, 6 or more days rest, if opp is off a home 10+ ats loss. [Chic]
(3-0 2006. KC 28-31 Cleve @ 36.5. Chic 42-27 SL @ 41. Pits 37-3 Caro @ 38.5
1-0 2007. Pits 28-31 Denver @ 39)
16-1 over (Av. total 40.1...av. score 50.8!!) if their last game was at home. (16-0 since 1991)
...and...League: 20-5 over (Av. total 38.8...av. score 47.8) at home if they last lost SU as a fav, but gained 150+ yards rushing. [Oak]
I'm just going to keep riding this over-rated Bears D! They allow 5th wost 4.7 y/rush, which plays into Oakland's only real strength! They have the 4th best running attack @ 140 y/game.
Griese had been on fire, av'ing 26 ppg until last week's 4 INT disaster v. Det...pretty sure he can bounce back here against a team allowing over 22 ppg.
Chicago come out firing offensively after their BYE week, and Oakland should be able to score enough to keep it close and push it over.
I see the total pushing upwards of 38 around the place, so an early 37.5 is a bonus.
NO -11
League: 1-8-1 (Av. loss 18.4) away 10+ dog off a BYE with total >42. [SL]
(0-1 2006. Tex 6-34 Dal @ +13
0-1 2007. Oak 14-28 SD @ +10)
This does seem a funny line to me...thought somewhere in the vacinity of 17 would be more like it.
Sure the Saints started 0-4, but they've won the last 4 straight by an av of over 13...sure against a couple of crappy teams, but um, SL 0-8?!...with an av. loss of 15 ppg...
As I mentioned last week, NO actually have the 6th best run D in the NFL, allowing just 3.7 ypc...sure, they give up big chunks through the air, but the thing about allowing big plays is that the other team has to make them!!
SL has a patched up O-line that just got worse with Incognito out, and have scored just 3, 7, 3 & 6 on the road as it is!! :scared
Atlanta @ Carolina under 36.5
League: 1-7-1 under (Av. total 42.6...av. score 31.5) 3+ dog, off a 1-3 ats win as home 3+ fav, if opp is off an ats loss as a dog. [Atl]
...and a team trend, since 2004, Carolina are 0-10 under at home inside the Div. (Av. total 40.5...av. score 34.0) **
These teams are a combined 4-12 under on the season, and with good reason.
Atl av. just 14 ppg...have only topped 20 once, v. a pretty bad Houston D, and haven't topped 16 on the road @ just 9.8!!
Both teams are in the top half for pass D so expecting plenty of clock killing ground time from both teams...esp. with Vinny T struggling with a sore achilles, and no recognised back-up.
The last 4 meetings @ Carolina have gone under @ less than 30ppg.
** I thought it might have been Fox's conservative play calling, but it looks like opposition teams come out running...av. 33.1 runs to just 28 passes...:shrug:
Quiet weekend on the NFL front...can't see anything else I like at all...
...Kinda like McNair over 195.5 yards passing, but he's just as likely to get pulled if he throws an early pick...
Anyway, good luck all
League: 5-17-1 (Av. loss 12.2) away 3+ dog, off a 21+ ats win as home 3+ dog. [Min]
1-12 (Av. loss 14.2) if opp last had 30+ mins TOP.
Favre and his pass happy D face off against the 2nd worst pass D in the NFL...already a 23-16 victory AT Minny, with Favre going 32/45 for 344 and 2 TD's.
Minny's offense revolves soley around Peterson, who again had a big one last week...but interesting to note that the 3 games Min have won they've scored 24+...in the 5 they've lost they've scored 17 or less.
Green Bay have the 5th best scoring D, allowing just 17.8 ppg...and importantly v. the Vikes, they are 8th best v. the run, and equal 6th in ypr @ 3.7.
Besides anything else, the Pack are 7-1, and 6-1-1 ats afterall!!
Oakland v. Chicago over 37.5
League: 18-3 over (Av. total 39.9...av. score 49.0!) away fav, 6 or more days rest, if opp is off a home 10+ ats loss. [Chic]
(3-0 2006. KC 28-31 Cleve @ 36.5. Chic 42-27 SL @ 41. Pits 37-3 Caro @ 38.5
1-0 2007. Pits 28-31 Denver @ 39)
16-1 over (Av. total 40.1...av. score 50.8!!) if their last game was at home. (16-0 since 1991)
...and...League: 20-5 over (Av. total 38.8...av. score 47.8) at home if they last lost SU as a fav, but gained 150+ yards rushing. [Oak]
I'm just going to keep riding this over-rated Bears D! They allow 5th wost 4.7 y/rush, which plays into Oakland's only real strength! They have the 4th best running attack @ 140 y/game.
Griese had been on fire, av'ing 26 ppg until last week's 4 INT disaster v. Det...pretty sure he can bounce back here against a team allowing over 22 ppg.
Chicago come out firing offensively after their BYE week, and Oakland should be able to score enough to keep it close and push it over.
I see the total pushing upwards of 38 around the place, so an early 37.5 is a bonus.
NO -11
League: 1-8-1 (Av. loss 18.4) away 10+ dog off a BYE with total >42. [SL]
(0-1 2006. Tex 6-34 Dal @ +13
0-1 2007. Oak 14-28 SD @ +10)
This does seem a funny line to me...thought somewhere in the vacinity of 17 would be more like it.
Sure the Saints started 0-4, but they've won the last 4 straight by an av of over 13...sure against a couple of crappy teams, but um, SL 0-8?!...with an av. loss of 15 ppg...
As I mentioned last week, NO actually have the 6th best run D in the NFL, allowing just 3.7 ypc...sure, they give up big chunks through the air, but the thing about allowing big plays is that the other team has to make them!!
SL has a patched up O-line that just got worse with Incognito out, and have scored just 3, 7, 3 & 6 on the road as it is!! :scared
Atlanta @ Carolina under 36.5
League: 1-7-1 under (Av. total 42.6...av. score 31.5) 3+ dog, off a 1-3 ats win as home 3+ fav, if opp is off an ats loss as a dog. [Atl]
...and a team trend, since 2004, Carolina are 0-10 under at home inside the Div. (Av. total 40.5...av. score 34.0) **
These teams are a combined 4-12 under on the season, and with good reason.
Atl av. just 14 ppg...have only topped 20 once, v. a pretty bad Houston D, and haven't topped 16 on the road @ just 9.8!!
Both teams are in the top half for pass D so expecting plenty of clock killing ground time from both teams...esp. with Vinny T struggling with a sore achilles, and no recognised back-up.
The last 4 meetings @ Carolina have gone under @ less than 30ppg.
** I thought it might have been Fox's conservative play calling, but it looks like opposition teams come out running...av. 33.1 runs to just 28 passes...:shrug:
Quiet weekend on the NFL front...can't see anything else I like at all...
...Kinda like McNair over 195.5 yards passing, but he's just as likely to get pulled if he throws an early pick...
Anyway, good luck all
