Nice work again there Ryan...:toast:
Minni -4
League: 8-1-1 (Av. win 17.6!!)non-Div road fav, off a 14+ ats win as a 7+ fav, if total is 44.5+ and opp is off a SU loss. [Min]
Not only did the Cards lose last week, they got pumped! Allowed about 550 total yards, and after such a good start to the season, have given up 115+ rushing yards in 4 of their last 5.
Vikes have scored <27 just once all season (@ Pits) and should be able to take better advantage of yards gained than the TItans last week.
Miami v. NE under 46 (1.94)
League: 4-14 under (3-15 this no...av. total 42.3...av. score 35.5) any dog off a 10+ ats loss as road 3+ fav, with 30+ mins TOP. [Mia]
0-7 under (Av. score 30.4!) as a home dog.
Miami chewed up the clock last week, but failed to convert to points...will struggle again this week I reckon. Grove out won't help...
...NE got torched last week, and it's been fairly evident that their lack of a pass rush is hurting, but take out the NO and Indi games (2 of the very best obviously) and they are giving up just 14 ppg.
NE are always a chance to put a score up, but NO did a great job of taking Moss and Welker out of the game last week, and if they do get loose, they still might have to top 30 to push this one over.
Cinci -12.5
League: 9-1 (Av. win 17.3) any home fav off an ats loss as 7+ home fav with 150+ rushing if opp lost 7+ ats. [Cinci]
Detroit are 0-5 on the road, losing by nearly 20ppg and giving up over 35 ppg!...which I think is the key here.
Bengals haven't been scoring big, but games v. Pits, Balt, a cross-country road trip and the Cleveland games always seem to be tight and grinding...
I reckon this could be a Chicago-type game where they finally get to cut losse.
NO -9.5 (1.99)
League: 5-12 (Av. loss 17.2) any 7+ dog off a 1-3 SU loss as a road 7+ dog. [Wash]
0-8 (Av. loss 25.1!) if non-Div.
Think I'm now officially the only person in the world (on the board at least!) who doesn't give the 'Skins a chance.
The last 3 weeks has seen an apparent turn around for them, but I reckon it's all a bit of a mirage.
They were getting pumped by Denver before Orton went down, got a bonus 7 last week and only scored 6 @ Dallas.
Yeah, could be a let down spot for the Saints, but I've never been much good at thinking like an athlete! :142smilie
Gunna go with the numbers, which still suggest that NO are more than a 10 point better team than Washington!
Indi v. Tenn under 47
League: 0-9 under (Av. total 47.4...av. score 38.6) 3+ fav off an ats (& 7+ SU) win as a road 3+ fav, total 42.5+, if they had <30 mins TOP and opp had 150+ rushing. [Indi]
Looking for Tenn to control the clock and try to keep Manning off the field. Indi allowing just over 16ppg anyway, and have been under-rated defensively all year...Titans haven't given up more than 17 in each of their last 3 as they get back to full strength.
8 of the last 9 in the series have gone under.
Denver @ KC under 38 (2.02)
Looks like a lot of points for a Denver game.
Very similar numbers for this game than the Bills/Jets...KC converting just 22% of 3rd downs...Denver 37%, and both teams allowing less than 38%.
Chiefs pass D has been their problem, but not sure Orton and the run first Broncos will take advantage...ceratinly not like SD last week.
7 of their score v. Pits came from the opening KO return...not sure either team can make it to 20.
Grant +14.5 rushing v. Rice
Is the wrong person favoured here? Home team, favs, allowing less rushing yards/game (89 to 97), and gains more per game (81 to 74)...getting 14 yards... :shrug:
Grant has covered the opp. at this number in 8 of 11 games...failed just once in the last 8 weeks when he carried the ball just 10 times to Peterson's 25...
Rice has covered his opp just twice in the last 7...both big wins v. Denver and Cleveland...and gaining 3 less yards than Addai 2 games ago is a pretty bad sign.
Good Luck all
