Wk. 14.

[MrChristo]

Record: So close to 0.00 it's (almost!) funny. kurby

SD v. Oakland under 43.5 (1.93)

Grabbing this now, as it is (rightly, imo!) falling.
It's a Raider game for a start! 7 of last 8 have gone 'under', and all have been under 43.
SD have stopped to a walk too...LT clearly not 100%...they've played 3 pretty bad run D's in the last month (Atl, Indi and KC), and they've only topped 100 yards in one of those games, and not scored more than 20 points in any.
46 points in the first meeting, but a 28 point last quarter was bizarre...
...last 2 meetings @ SD have been under this number...in fact the under is 4-15 in the last 19 @ SD!
Of course, I'm about 0-7 on Prime Time unders so far... :nono:

 

[MrChristo]

51-47-2 (+.66) to be precise!...

Chicago v. Jax over 39.5

League: 12-1 over (Av. total 41.1...av. score 54.7) home 3+ fav, off a 14+ ats loss as a Div road 3+ dog, if they had <28 mins TOP ad allowed 150+ rushing. [Chic]

Basically, the Bears defense sucked last week, and somewhat surprisingly given the numbers, but it's sucked most of the year!
They've given up 20+ points in all but 3 games...two to Det and SL who are both awful, and 13 in the first game of the season v. Indi in Manning's first action off a long break.
They do score at home tho, av'ing over 27 ppg, and have scored less than 24 just once v. a very solid Titan D.
The Jags aren't much better defensively, they've allowed 21+ in 9 of 11, and as such have posted at least 40 points in 9 of their last 10.

Baltimore v. Washington under 36

Going against a pretty solid 'over' situation here, but I don't see either team lighting it up!
Baltimore have been on a scoring spree lately, but Cinci, Houston, Cleveland, Oakland...
...scored 36 v. Philli (7th overall D), but a 100 yard KO return, a 108 yard pick 6 and a safety! They ony had 14 F's and <250 total offensive yards.
Agaisnt other top 10 D's they scored 10 v. NYG, 10 v. Tenn, 20 v. Pits.
Washington have the 6th best D in the NFL.
But, they can't score. Have topped 20 just once in the last 7 games (@ Detroit!)...and in 4 games this year where they've been held to under 100 yards rushing (Giants x 2, Dallas and Pits) they've scored 7, 7, 10 and 6!

 

[Hooks]

With U on the Balt UNDER Mate, you O.K. ?

 

[MrChristo]

I'm good mate, thanks for askin'! :toast:

Will be better still in about 20 hours when I'm cruising around on Sydney harbour with a belly full of free beer!
Ahhh...the one good thing about Christmas time! :00hour

Tenn v. Cleveland over 37 (1.99)

League: 23-4 over (Av. total 44.0...av. score 53.4) 10+ fav, off a 10+ ats win as away 7+ fav. [Ten]
12-0 over (Av. score 54.7) if they had 34+ mins TOP.

As well as the Titans' D has played this year, they've allowed at least 10 points in 12 of 13 games...
...since Collins took control they've played just 3 teams ranked 20th or lower for total D, and scored 47, 34 and 31.
Cleveland defense being over-rated off the last couple of weeks...Indi have been struggling to move the ball all season (22nd in over-all offense!!), plus the weather didn't help...
...Houston gained nearly 400 yards the week before but settled for FG's.
I can see the Titans scoring 30+ here, which should be enough to tip it over.

Seattle +5.5

League: 9-1-1 (Av. loss 0.3) home 3+ dog off a 10+ ats loss as a 10+ dog, if opp lost ats with <30 mins TOP. [Seattle]
7-0-1 (Av. WIN 6.5!) any home dog if opp lost 7+ ats.

League: 1-9 (Av. LOSS 4.4) away 3+ fav off a 14+ ats loss as home (-3 to +3) [NE]
0-7 (Av. LOSS 8.4!) if opp was last away.

Can't really understand why this line is shooting higher? :shrug: ...(Well, I guess I can! )
Seattle's numbers on the ground at home this season are very surprising. Gaining 4.8 ypc, allowing just 3.4...they have NE well and truly covered.
Their problem has been the passing game, but put most of that down to Wallace...Hasselbeck threw for 287 last week.
They ran Washington close, and haven't lost a game by more tha 6 at home with Hasselbeck under centre.
Last week showed that NE just aren't that good, sure the Steelers are better than Seattle!!...but not sure the Pats should be favoured by more than 3 on the road (which they haven't been all season.)

Carolina v. Tampa under 38.5

About the only team trend I take notice of these days...
...Panthers: 0-16 under as a home Div fav since 2000.

History aside, where's this line coming from anyway?
First meeting was 27-3 with 7 from a blocked punt, and the last 4 @ Carolina have gone under...
...some big scoring lately, but look who each team has played:
5 of the Panthers' last 6 have been against teams who are 21st or worse for points allowed...and Atlanta (8th) are 22nd for over-all D.
Tampa are 4th in both scoring and total D.
3 of the Bucs last 4 have been against NO, Det and KC...enough said.

Good Luck all

 

[Old School]

homework should be rewarded soon..

your data digging and insight have certainly helped me this season

lets see if we can mojo up a hot streak

 

[USCMD]

Christo

You are solid so its always sad when I see us on opposite sides.

I like NE this week, a lot! Seneca Wallace likely to start for Sea, line is now Sea-7. Its sad but MH is "dead coach walking" as Sea plays out the string.

30% chance of rain.

NE is faced with possibility of winning out, and missing the playoffs. I think that insures a m ax effort.

Jax has bailed. Only team to lose to both cle and cin. They go to Chi for a 20 degree kickoff.....winds 5-15. Looks like chi or under. maybe both?

bol my friend