Wk. 15.

[MrChristo]

Coming good at the pointy end...Wiped off half the debt last week...:00hour :mj07:

9-4 last week gets me to 59-57-2 (-4.45)

SD v. Cinci under 44

League: 20-46-2 under (Av. total43.8...av. score 39.4) any fav, total 40+, off a 1-3 SU win as a road dog. [SD]
1-11-2 (Av. score 33.5!) if opp last had <150 yards passing.

Looks very similar to the Minni game last week...Cinci really struggling to score now, have topped 18 just once without Henry ( ), and that was v. Detroit...
...they rely a lot on Benson and the running game, but although SD allow 4.3 yrp, they have not given up any runs of 40+ yards, and just 5 all season of 20+.
Bengals D still haging in there tho...6th best pass D (6.4 ypp), and second best for scoring allowed...should be a decent match for the pass happy Chargers...who might be more happy to keep it on the ground like Minni last week.
Tick, tock...26-10 this week.

Denver v. Oakland under 37 (2.00)

League: 0-7 under (Av. total 38.4...av. score 27.6) raod 10+ dog, off a 21+ SU loss as home (-3 to +3) if they lost last meeting by 7+ ats. [Oak]

Raiders didn't score last time...no reason they can score here either!
Charlie Frye? :shrug:
Denver 1-11 under last 12 at home...usually happy to run the game away. Av'ing 4.3 ypc, but have only had 1 x 40+ yard run all season and 6 x 20+, so lots of time consuming drives one way, lots of nothing the other...Looks like a 24-3 kinda game to me.

6 pt Tease: Philli -1.5, SD -1, Minni -3, GB +8 (4.00)

League: 0-21 SU (Av. loss 15.9) road 7+ dog off a 10+ ats win as home 3+ dog with 34+ TOP. [SF]

SF haven't won a game on the road since getting a sub-par Cards first up...
...Eagles scoring over 28 ppg at home...may still give up the odd big play, but will do enough to win.

League: 0-11 SU (Av. loss 13.0) home 7+ dog, total 40.5+, off an ats win but 7+ SU loss as a 7+ dog. [Caro]

Moore at QB...offensive line in tatters...just not sure how they compete.
Pass D has been good, but Minni hit the ground last week, and will lean on Peterson again here to get the job done against a poor run D.
Vikes win the battle of both lines and come out with the W.

League: 0-13 SU (Av. loss 16.4) road 7+ dog, total 40+ off a 10+ ats loss as road 3+ dog with <150 passing yards. [Cinci]

Already said I don't think Cinci can score enough to stay in this one. Charger D very similar numbers to Minni, and as good as the Bengals' D has been , if they can't score 20 here they don't win.


No Polamalu just about says it all for Pits...but now no Kemoeatu and probably no Hartwig, and if the Browns can get the BR 6 times... :scared
Steelers lost 5 straight, inc. losses to KC, Oak and Cleveland...GB have played some average teams on the road, but now that's exactly where the Steelers sit.
They may not win, but getting over a TD looks a stretch.

Beanie Wells OVER 64.5 rushing

Low numbers due to a pass happy offense, but on the 7 occassions he's had 10 or more attempts in a game this season, he's topped this number in 5 of them. (Missed out v. Minni, 4th best run D and Seattle, 12th best)
Detroit are 9th worst against the run, and give up over 128 ypg, and just got hammered on the ground by Balt last week...have given up more than this in 4 of 6 at home, and if Zona get some points on the board early, he could get the ball 15+ times easily.

Charles OVER 83.5

He snuck home for me last week with the lazy 143 yards...this number is closer to the mark, but still a little bit low v. the 29th ranked Browns run D.
He's been held under this number (since starting) by Denver (15th) and Pits (1st)...had more v. Buff (32), SD (21) and Oak (30).
Last road game Cleveland gave up 210 to Cinci, and also 90 to Forte who has been pretty averagae all year.


Good Luck all.

 

[77sticks]

Did you have more OVER plays last year? I always played the OVERs and everytime I check you keep posting those damn UNDERs. :142smilie

 

[MrChristo]

I wish I had have played more OVER's this year, I'd be much better off! :142smilie

Was having a decent look at Wash/NYG over 43, but I think I may have missed the boat. :sadwave:

 

[Hooks]

Nice job last week Chris !

Looks like we're on opposites on a couple :nono:

Hope your well.

 

[MrChristo]

Only with some extra points in the bag tho mate...plenty of room for us both to get the W.

NE @ Buffalo under 41 (1.98)

There's some key injuries in this game that I think helps with the under...both teams will be missing 2 O-line starters (Neal and Kaczur for NE, Simmons and Scott for Buff)...but also importantly Warren and Wilfork have been ruled out for NE, which will encourage the Bills to keep the ball on the ground and chew up some clock. There could well be some long, time consuming drives with not much to show for it, as the Bills are one of only two teams who have more FG's than TD's on the season.
As it is, NE have given up just on 14 ppg on the season (minus NO and Indi)...
...but the Pats are changing themselves. 38 runs to just 32 passes last week (I realise in a big win, but every chance this will be too!)...and even 25 runs to just 29 passes the week before in a loss @ Miami.
Bills pass D is up there with the best (actually equal the best for QB rating allowed), so with a patchy O-line and Brady already 'hurting' expect them to came out on the ground v. a poor Bills runs D.
I do think the Pats run game lacks the punch to break quick scores tho, only 5 x 20+ yard rushes for the season, and only 1 x 40+...even last week v. a bad Panther run D they didn't have one of 20+.
Interestingly Buffalo haven't topped 10 in their last 4 meetings at home, and av. just over 6!
Could easily be a repeat of the Pats' 20-10 game last week.