Trends....
League: 18-3 over (Av. total 43.9...av. score 53.9!) home 10+ fav, off a 10+ ats win as away 7+ fav. [Cinci]
10-1 over (11-0 this no...av. total 46.1...av. score 60.1!!) if opp is off any ats loss.
26-7 over (Av. total 43.6...av. score 51.6) home 10+ fav off any ats win as away 7+ fav. [Denv]
19-3 (av. total 42.0...av. score 51.3) if opp was last at home
7-0 (av. total 44.5...av. score 61.9!!) if opp lost ats at home.
Cinci/Buff over 43.5 & Denver/Oakland over 42 are two very strong trend picks this week, and even without the trend I loved the over in Cinci....however, I'll be keeping an eye on the weather closer to game time as there are strong winds and rain forecast.
Cinci home games av. 48.9 ppg this season...Buff have allowed 24, 48, 21, 38, 19 & 19 on the road @ 28.2.
Both teams defense is sub-par...Cinci will definately take advantage, and Buffalo are definately more of a scoring threat with Holcolmb @ QB.
Like the over a lot...providing the weather is reasonable. (Would prefer winds of <15 mph)
League: 9-18 (Av. loss 17.1) away 10+ dog, off any ats loss as home 3- fav. [Oak]
2-14 (Av. loss 20.5) if opp was last away.
So, everything points to Denver scoring big and winning....But I'm not sure I want to get involved in this game.
Oakland have pretty much given up for the year. It was clear when they basically ran out the last 6-7 minutes of the SD game, and didn't even try to put points on the board.
Two crappy, crappy games later and they play a Denver team still needing to win for the AFC play-off race....Just seems a little too easy.
Oakland won SU last year as +13 dogs with Collins leading a late fightback in the snow....This could well be Collins' last chance to show anyone out there he can still play (which is debatable! )
Reasons to play the over: BIG trend. Last 2 meetings (one this season, one last @ Denver) have been high scoring. Oakland's crappy defense.
Reasons not to: Oakland's terribly over-rated offense. Jordon out (which could mean more passing tho!)
Reasons to take Denver: BIG trend. Oakland flat out stink.
Reasons not to: If Oakland lay down early, Denver might be content to rest some key guys late. One out of the box last year.
Maybe Denver over 37 performance points? (1 point = 1 point and 10 points for a win....so effectively Denver would have to score at least 27 and win.)
Frustrating having one teams that could well do anything! (except win, you'd think)
Washington -3
League: 18-13 (Av. win 6.6) home 7- fav off a home 21+ SU and ats win. [Wash]
10-2 (11-1 this no...av. win 12.1) if opp is off any ats win. (1-0 season)
(7-0 (Av. win 14.1!) if opp won ats as a fav)
(6-0 (Av. win 15.8!!) if the toal is <40)
Again, not sure I can take this one. Washington have a huge revenge motivation after losing 38-0 last meeting, but I'm not sure they'll be able to keep Tiki in check, with the Giants av. an impressive 4.6 ypc.
Should be a great game to watch...history says the 'Skins, but I'm not so sure.
Philli @ Arizona under 39
League: 3-10 under (2-11 this no...Av. total 41.2...av. score 32.7) home 3- fav off a 10+ ats loss as away 3- fav. [Zona]
0-7 (av. total 37.6...av. score 27.0!!) if total <40.
This one I do like!
'Zona have only scored 21+ in 2 games this season...against S.L. and S.F. who are about the 2 worst defenses in the NFL!
They have no running game, which generally stalls them in the red-zone. They have only 22 TD's to 39 FG's this season....and that gets even worse with Warner out. In games without Warner @ QB, they have 19 FG's to just 7 TD's!
Philli aren't exactly scoring machines with McMahon at QB either. He throws just 5.4 ypp and has a rating of 50.2.
They've averaged just 15 ppg in their last 5.
Both teams have reasonable defenses, so it's tough to see much scoring here.
I do like the Indi/Seattle under, but not sure whether to get involved with everything that's going on in and around it....
....Maybe Seattle??
Indi lost by 19 in this spot last year (resting starters @ Denver)...they lost all 5 pre-season games this year...
Can't see Sorgi and co. putting up much of a score...can't see Seattle running up a score given everything that's happening...The only problem I see is if Seattle try to run it out they still might break one or 2 big runs for scores against the weakened Indi D.
Wish I had have grabbed Indi -6.5! :cursin:
Anyway....Good Luck to all....
Hope everyone has a safe and merry Christmas. :clap:
(What better way to start the big day than by cracking a beer and watching Washington/NYG start @ 5am Christmas Morning local time! :mj14: )
League: 18-3 over (Av. total 43.9...av. score 53.9!) home 10+ fav, off a 10+ ats win as away 7+ fav. [Cinci]
10-1 over (11-0 this no...av. total 46.1...av. score 60.1!!) if opp is off any ats loss.
26-7 over (Av. total 43.6...av. score 51.6) home 10+ fav off any ats win as away 7+ fav. [Denv]
19-3 (av. total 42.0...av. score 51.3) if opp was last at home
7-0 (av. total 44.5...av. score 61.9!!) if opp lost ats at home.
Cinci/Buff over 43.5 & Denver/Oakland over 42 are two very strong trend picks this week, and even without the trend I loved the over in Cinci....however, I'll be keeping an eye on the weather closer to game time as there are strong winds and rain forecast.
Cinci home games av. 48.9 ppg this season...Buff have allowed 24, 48, 21, 38, 19 & 19 on the road @ 28.2.
Both teams defense is sub-par...Cinci will definately take advantage, and Buffalo are definately more of a scoring threat with Holcolmb @ QB.
Like the over a lot...providing the weather is reasonable. (Would prefer winds of <15 mph)
League: 9-18 (Av. loss 17.1) away 10+ dog, off any ats loss as home 3- fav. [Oak]
2-14 (Av. loss 20.5) if opp was last away.
So, everything points to Denver scoring big and winning....But I'm not sure I want to get involved in this game.
Oakland have pretty much given up for the year. It was clear when they basically ran out the last 6-7 minutes of the SD game, and didn't even try to put points on the board.
Two crappy, crappy games later and they play a Denver team still needing to win for the AFC play-off race....Just seems a little too easy.
Oakland won SU last year as +13 dogs with Collins leading a late fightback in the snow....This could well be Collins' last chance to show anyone out there he can still play (which is debatable! )
Reasons to play the over: BIG trend. Last 2 meetings (one this season, one last @ Denver) have been high scoring. Oakland's crappy defense.
Reasons not to: Oakland's terribly over-rated offense. Jordon out (which could mean more passing tho!)
Reasons to take Denver: BIG trend. Oakland flat out stink.
Reasons not to: If Oakland lay down early, Denver might be content to rest some key guys late. One out of the box last year.
Maybe Denver over 37 performance points? (1 point = 1 point and 10 points for a win....so effectively Denver would have to score at least 27 and win.)
Frustrating having one teams that could well do anything! (except win, you'd think)
Washington -3
League: 18-13 (Av. win 6.6) home 7- fav off a home 21+ SU and ats win. [Wash]
10-2 (11-1 this no...av. win 12.1) if opp is off any ats win. (1-0 season)
(7-0 (Av. win 14.1!) if opp won ats as a fav)
(6-0 (Av. win 15.8!!) if the toal is <40)
Again, not sure I can take this one. Washington have a huge revenge motivation after losing 38-0 last meeting, but I'm not sure they'll be able to keep Tiki in check, with the Giants av. an impressive 4.6 ypc.
Should be a great game to watch...history says the 'Skins, but I'm not so sure.
Philli @ Arizona under 39
League: 3-10 under (2-11 this no...Av. total 41.2...av. score 32.7) home 3- fav off a 10+ ats loss as away 3- fav. [Zona]
0-7 (av. total 37.6...av. score 27.0!!) if total <40.
This one I do like!
'Zona have only scored 21+ in 2 games this season...against S.L. and S.F. who are about the 2 worst defenses in the NFL!
They have no running game, which generally stalls them in the red-zone. They have only 22 TD's to 39 FG's this season....and that gets even worse with Warner out. In games without Warner @ QB, they have 19 FG's to just 7 TD's!
Philli aren't exactly scoring machines with McMahon at QB either. He throws just 5.4 ypp and has a rating of 50.2.
They've averaged just 15 ppg in their last 5.
Both teams have reasonable defenses, so it's tough to see much scoring here.
I do like the Indi/Seattle under, but not sure whether to get involved with everything that's going on in and around it....
....Maybe Seattle??
Indi lost by 19 in this spot last year (resting starters @ Denver)...they lost all 5 pre-season games this year...
Can't see Sorgi and co. putting up much of a score...can't see Seattle running up a score given everything that's happening...The only problem I see is if Seattle try to run it out they still might break one or 2 big runs for scores against the weakened Indi D.
Wish I had have grabbed Indi -6.5! :cursin:
Anyway....Good Luck to all....
Hope everyone has a safe and merry Christmas. :clap:
(What better way to start the big day than by cracking a beer and watching Washington/NYG start @ 5am Christmas Morning local time! :mj14: )
