3-3 last week...62-60-2 (-4.81)
Favs, favs, and more favs this week...like 'em a lot!
GB -14 (1.94)
League: 2-8 (Av. loss 21.0!) road 7+ dog, off a 7+ ats loss as a 3+ fav, if opp won ats with 300+ yards passing. [Seattle]
0-4 (Av. loss 24.5!!) as aq 10+ dog...team allows 35.5 ppg...
(inc. Jets @ NE 2009)
...and it adds up. Seattle have been awful on the road, giving up over 30 ppg as it is. Now facing one of the best offenses, Seahawks just 7 points in each of the last 2 weeks, this one gets ugly.
Atl -8 (1.96)
League: 8-19 (Av. loss 16.1) road 7+ dog off a 7+ SU loss as home 3+ dog, with 32+ TOP. [Buff]
0-6 (Av. loss 24.5!!) if opp last won ats as a dog.
Buffalo offense stinks, even before Brohm takes control.
Not a good match up for them either...Atl pass D has bee terrible, but they'll allowed just one RB 100+ yards on the season (all the way back in week 3), so it's going to be tough for Bills to get anything going.
On the contrary, Bills run D is a disaster, so it won't matter if Turner goes or not, Falcons have a big day on the ground...
...Falcons have similar numbers to both Tenn and Miami...Bills lost big @ both.
SF -10.5 (1.96)
League: 8-0 (Av. win 20.8) any 10+ fav, off an ats loss as a 7+ dog. [SF]
League: 2-9 (Av. loss 22.3!) away 10+ dog off a 7+ SU loss as home 7+ dog with 30+ TOP. [Det]
0-8 (Av. loss 27.0!!) if total is 38+
Det 0-7 on the road, av. loss of 20+...a host of defensive injuries which Gore will pound through all day long.
Looks like Stanton will start. Lions might score, they might not...won't matter when they give up another 30+.
TB @ NO under 50
League: 1-14 under (Av. -8.5) 7+ dog off a 21+ ats win as any dog, if they lost last meeting by 7+ ats. [TB]
...team scores 7.9 ppg.
Exactly right...not sure why anything is different to last meeting when TB did score exactly 7 five weeks ago.
For a team who av. 15 ppg, 50 looks a long way off!
Bucs don't score, NO won't need to 2H...
Not yet played, but will sometime...(hanging out for the extra 1/2 point which may well be on the way...)
Philli -7/6.5
League: 13-2-1 (14-1-1 @ -7...av. win 16.7) home 3+ fav off a 7+ SU win as a 7+ home fav with 300+ passing and 30+ TOP. [Phil]
(inc. Philli v. TB, Pits v. Minni, Min v. Seattle in 2009)
It's all coming unstuck for Denver...lost 6 of their last 8, now facing the red hot Eagles on a 5-0 run, av'ing over 31 ppg in that time.
Philli are an under-rated groud team (av. 4.3 ypc), and have been a lot more balanced in their last 3 esp., should have some success against a Denver defensive front that was pushed around at will by Oakland last week.
Forget beating KC...Denver have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road by 23, 10 and 12.
NYG -7
League: 18-6 (Av. win 16.7) home 7+ fav, off a 21+ ats win as road (-3 to +3) [NYG]
(inc. Indi v. Seattle and 'Zona v. Seattle in 2009)
10-1 (Av. win 20.5!) if total is 40.5+
Much tougher ask for Carolina this week, facing a team who will pound their terrible run D (not like Peterson's "effort" last week
)...and will score (Av'ing nearly 30 ppg at home).
Panthers have lost their last 3 on the road by 10, 11 and 10...NYG still playing for Play-offs won't ease up like Vikes did.
Questionable??...
Vikes -7
League: 15-0-1 (Av. win 18.9!) on the road, off a 7+ ats loss as road 7+ fav with <30 TOP. [Min]
(inc. Phil @ Wash and NO @ TB 2009)
Great spot for them...even more so since the Bears seem to have totally packed it away...they are 2-8 ats since their BYE, 2 wins v. Cleve and SL!! :scared
Minni need to bounce back and show something after last week...and this Bears D (now missing Ogunleye as well) will be much more to Favre's liking than Peppers and a strong Panthers pass D.
36-10 last meeting, over 350 more yards!
Cutler's av'd just over 150 ypg in the last 5, and the Bears run game is non-existant.
Anyway...Good Luck all.
Favs, favs, and more favs this week...like 'em a lot!
GB -14 (1.94)
League: 2-8 (Av. loss 21.0!) road 7+ dog, off a 7+ ats loss as a 3+ fav, if opp won ats with 300+ yards passing. [Seattle]
0-4 (Av. loss 24.5!!) as aq 10+ dog...team allows 35.5 ppg...
(inc. Jets @ NE 2009)
...and it adds up. Seattle have been awful on the road, giving up over 30 ppg as it is. Now facing one of the best offenses, Seahawks just 7 points in each of the last 2 weeks, this one gets ugly.
Atl -8 (1.96)
League: 8-19 (Av. loss 16.1) road 7+ dog off a 7+ SU loss as home 3+ dog, with 32+ TOP. [Buff]
0-6 (Av. loss 24.5!!) if opp last won ats as a dog.
Buffalo offense stinks, even before Brohm takes control.
Not a good match up for them either...Atl pass D has bee terrible, but they'll allowed just one RB 100+ yards on the season (all the way back in week 3), so it's going to be tough for Bills to get anything going.
On the contrary, Bills run D is a disaster, so it won't matter if Turner goes or not, Falcons have a big day on the ground...
...Falcons have similar numbers to both Tenn and Miami...Bills lost big @ both.
SF -10.5 (1.96)
League: 8-0 (Av. win 20.8) any 10+ fav, off an ats loss as a 7+ dog. [SF]
League: 2-9 (Av. loss 22.3!) away 10+ dog off a 7+ SU loss as home 7+ dog with 30+ TOP. [Det]
0-8 (Av. loss 27.0!!) if total is 38+
Det 0-7 on the road, av. loss of 20+...a host of defensive injuries which Gore will pound through all day long.
Looks like Stanton will start. Lions might score, they might not...won't matter when they give up another 30+.
TB @ NO under 50
League: 1-14 under (Av. -8.5) 7+ dog off a 21+ ats win as any dog, if they lost last meeting by 7+ ats. [TB]
...team scores 7.9 ppg.
Exactly right...not sure why anything is different to last meeting when TB did score exactly 7 five weeks ago.
For a team who av. 15 ppg, 50 looks a long way off!
Bucs don't score, NO won't need to 2H...
Not yet played, but will sometime...(hanging out for the extra 1/2 point which may well be on the way...)
Philli -7/6.5
League: 13-2-1 (14-1-1 @ -7...av. win 16.7) home 3+ fav off a 7+ SU win as a 7+ home fav with 300+ passing and 30+ TOP. [Phil]
(inc. Philli v. TB, Pits v. Minni, Min v. Seattle in 2009)
It's all coming unstuck for Denver...lost 6 of their last 8, now facing the red hot Eagles on a 5-0 run, av'ing over 31 ppg in that time.
Philli are an under-rated groud team (av. 4.3 ypc), and have been a lot more balanced in their last 3 esp., should have some success against a Denver defensive front that was pushed around at will by Oakland last week.
Forget beating KC...Denver have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road by 23, 10 and 12.
NYG -7
League: 18-6 (Av. win 16.7) home 7+ fav, off a 21+ ats win as road (-3 to +3) [NYG]
(inc. Indi v. Seattle and 'Zona v. Seattle in 2009)
10-1 (Av. win 20.5!) if total is 40.5+
Much tougher ask for Carolina this week, facing a team who will pound their terrible run D (not like Peterson's "effort" last week
)...and will score (Av'ing nearly 30 ppg at home).Panthers have lost their last 3 on the road by 10, 11 and 10...NYG still playing for Play-offs won't ease up like Vikes did.
Questionable??...
Vikes -7
League: 15-0-1 (Av. win 18.9!) on the road, off a 7+ ats loss as road 7+ fav with <30 TOP. [Min]
(inc. Phil @ Wash and NO @ TB 2009)
Great spot for them...even more so since the Bears seem to have totally packed it away...they are 2-8 ats since their BYE, 2 wins v. Cleve and SL!! :scared
Minni need to bounce back and show something after last week...and this Bears D (now missing Ogunleye as well) will be much more to Favre's liking than Peppers and a strong Panthers pass D.
36-10 last meeting, over 350 more yards!
Cutler's av'd just over 150 ypg in the last 5, and the Bears run game is non-existant.
Anyway...Good Luck all.
