2-6 last week...following a 2-3...down to a dangerously low 67-37 @ 64%, with the 66% now looking just about out of reach. :sadwave:
Green Bay -4
They've said they are playing to win, to build up some momentum going into the play-off's after last week's disaster...even if they don't, Detroit are just terrible on the road, allowing nearly 35 ppg!
Everything that could have gone wrong for GB did last week...3 blocked punts for a start!...Orton was just 8/14 for 101 yards, so chalk this one dw to really bad luck (in some really bad conditions)
Grant gets another 100+ yard rushing game, Favre hits deep when he needs to against a terrible Det D, and Kitna can't keep up without a running game.
KC +6.5...ML? (3.50ish)
League: 10-0 SU (and ats...av. WIN 11.5!!) in a game were the total is <36, off a SU loss on the road with >30 mins TOP, if opp had >30 mins TOP as a 7+ dog. [KC]
(1-0 SU 2007. Oak 20-17 KC @ +4.5)
No reason for these teams not to be playing flat out this week...Stat-wise these are two very similar teams, in fact, KC may even have a slight edge defensively...they allow 3rd down conversion at just 32.29%, which is second behind NE! Obviously, given their position that indicates they give up big plays...but they are playing the Jets!...a team that has beaten only one team in regulation all season...Miami!! I just don't see how a 3-12 team (1-12 v. anyone but Miami remember! :mj07: ) can be favoured by this much anywhere, anytime.
Herm back on his old stomping ground...KC have won the last 3 finale's...If KC don't win, they sure as hell don't get beat by a TD!
Cleveland v. San Fran over 40
Basically, I'm not convinced the Browns can run away with this one.
I said a couple of weeks back how tough the 49ers schedule has been v. run D's...only played 3 teams outside the top 15...they scored 20 against Cinci...now get a Brownie run D that is second last oly to Miami @ 4.5 ypc.
Hill has been good, Weinke is still a downfield threat if Hill can't go, and they should have considerable success on the ground.
They do give up 27.4 ppg on the road tho...and Cleveland av. 27.7...far more if we take out 7 in Wk. 1 with Frye at the helm, and 8 v. Buffalo in a blizzard!
Cleveland will likely top 30...no reason San Fran can't hit 20...esp. since Cleveland have won just one game all season by more than 10.
Jax @ Houston over 41
Gray likely to take over from Garrard early, but in 3 full games he lead the Jags to 28 @ Tenn, 24 @ NO and 24 @ TB.
Houston av. over 26 ppg at home, and have the 4th best y/pass in the NFL, behind Indi, NE and GB!!
Jax give up over 20 on the road, and are likely to be resting defensive starters aswell.
Rosenfels came in late in the previous meeting and went 11/12 for 82 and a TD, so no reason he won't have success again.
Houston have scored 20 or more in all of the last 5 meetings at home...with worse offenses, and against better D's you'd think!
A "meaningless" game total that looks far too low.
...also got this one... League: 1-17! (Av. win 2.7) away 7+ fav, off a 7+ ats win as home fav, if opp lost ats with 30+ mins TOP. [SD]
...but one thing I can just about guarentee of those 18 games since 1989...not one of them had JaMarcus Russell as a starting QB!! :scared He looked real bad last week, and not sure how things improve against this suddenly aggresive, effective SD D!
LT is questionable...even to the point of unlikely, which could be a factor. Oakland run D is SO MUCH better at home...allow just 3.7 ypr as opposed to 6.1 away!
No real way of telling how Russell goes, or how many points he hands to SD...probably best left alone...
Right, BOL to everyone who's having a dip this week...we may well need it! :drinky:
Green Bay -4
They've said they are playing to win, to build up some momentum going into the play-off's after last week's disaster...even if they don't, Detroit are just terrible on the road, allowing nearly 35 ppg!
Everything that could have gone wrong for GB did last week...3 blocked punts for a start!...Orton was just 8/14 for 101 yards, so chalk this one dw to really bad luck (in some really bad conditions)
Grant gets another 100+ yard rushing game, Favre hits deep when he needs to against a terrible Det D, and Kitna can't keep up without a running game.
KC +6.5...ML? (3.50ish)
League: 10-0 SU (and ats...av. WIN 11.5!!) in a game were the total is <36, off a SU loss on the road with >30 mins TOP, if opp had >30 mins TOP as a 7+ dog. [KC]
(1-0 SU 2007. Oak 20-17 KC @ +4.5)
No reason for these teams not to be playing flat out this week...Stat-wise these are two very similar teams, in fact, KC may even have a slight edge defensively...they allow 3rd down conversion at just 32.29%, which is second behind NE! Obviously, given their position that indicates they give up big plays...but they are playing the Jets!...a team that has beaten only one team in regulation all season...Miami!! I just don't see how a 3-12 team (1-12 v. anyone but Miami remember! :mj07: ) can be favoured by this much anywhere, anytime.
Herm back on his old stomping ground...KC have won the last 3 finale's...If KC don't win, they sure as hell don't get beat by a TD!
Cleveland v. San Fran over 40
Basically, I'm not convinced the Browns can run away with this one.
I said a couple of weeks back how tough the 49ers schedule has been v. run D's...only played 3 teams outside the top 15...they scored 20 against Cinci...now get a Brownie run D that is second last oly to Miami @ 4.5 ypc.
Hill has been good, Weinke is still a downfield threat if Hill can't go, and they should have considerable success on the ground.
They do give up 27.4 ppg on the road tho...and Cleveland av. 27.7...far more if we take out 7 in Wk. 1 with Frye at the helm, and 8 v. Buffalo in a blizzard!
Cleveland will likely top 30...no reason San Fran can't hit 20...esp. since Cleveland have won just one game all season by more than 10.
Jax @ Houston over 41
Gray likely to take over from Garrard early, but in 3 full games he lead the Jags to 28 @ Tenn, 24 @ NO and 24 @ TB.
Houston av. over 26 ppg at home, and have the 4th best y/pass in the NFL, behind Indi, NE and GB!!
Jax give up over 20 on the road, and are likely to be resting defensive starters aswell.
Rosenfels came in late in the previous meeting and went 11/12 for 82 and a TD, so no reason he won't have success again.
Houston have scored 20 or more in all of the last 5 meetings at home...with worse offenses, and against better D's you'd think!
A "meaningless" game total that looks far too low.
...also got this one... League: 1-17! (Av. win 2.7) away 7+ fav, off a 7+ ats win as home fav, if opp lost ats with 30+ mins TOP. [SD]
...but one thing I can just about guarentee of those 18 games since 1989...not one of them had JaMarcus Russell as a starting QB!! :scared He looked real bad last week, and not sure how things improve against this suddenly aggresive, effective SD D!
LT is questionable...even to the point of unlikely, which could be a factor. Oakland run D is SO MUCH better at home...allow just 3.7 ypr as opposed to 6.1 away!
No real way of telling how Russell goes, or how many points he hands to SD...probably best left alone...
Right, BOL to everyone who's having a dip this week...we may well need it! :drinky:
