Wk. 2.

[MrChristo]

2-4 (2.18)

Well, that sucked... :shrug:

I don't mind losing games by a million points...and the Cinci game always had that gardenweasel type smell about it...but the NYG/Wash under loss was one thing...NE/Buff quite another!! :cursin: :violin:

NE @ Jets under 47 (1.91)

Sure, the Pats put up 25 and nearly 400 yards through the air...but the last TD was a gift, and clearly Brady isn't 100%. NE had 2 plays only of 20+ yards, and Brady threw nothing downfield at all.
Ground game didn't go far @ just 3 ypc...
Jets look to have a quality D this year. Held a decent looking Houston attack to 7, and just 38 yards on the ground!

League: 0-11 under (Av. total 42.9...av. score 37.8) any home dog, off an upset SU road win, and help their opp to <50 yards rushing. [Jets]

Sanchez may find it a little tougher v. this D than Houston.
I was expecting a total of around 41...47 looks a lot!!

Miami v. Indi under 43 (1.95)

I'm happy to stick by my Indi-offense-struggling theory. Had a couple of nice drives, but still only 14 points at home...Miami D looks every bit as good as the Jags, and held a very good Atl run game to just 24-72, so the Indi ground game wil struggle, and Manning is running out of weapons to throw to.
Miami offense is a plodder. Longest play last week was just 21 yards, and didn't score until the last 4 minutes of the game. They'll be wanting to keep it on the ground to keep Manning off the field anyway.
I reckon this could be another Colts low scorer.

Jags -3 (1.93)

I can only assume the Hayward injuury has driven this line doen from 5.5, but this is crazy, isn't it?
Arizona just got beaten at home by SF, Warner is gimpy, they have no ground game at all, in 5 first halves so far they've scored a total of 22 points, and they were 0-5 on the East coast last year, losing every game by 4 or more, and giving up an average of over 40ppg in the process!! :142smilie

League: 11-1 (Av. win 5.8) any game off a 1-3 SU loss as a Div 3+ dog, if opp last ran for <50 yards. [Jax]


Only really looking at one other game, and I think the line will move in my favour. :tongue

Good Luck all

 

[MrChristo]

...turns out it wasn't! Happy I jumped when I did...:0corn

Oaktown +3 (2.05)

League: 1-11-1 (Av. LOSS 8.1!!) any fav, off an ats loss as 10+ dog with <50 yards rushing and 28 mins TOP. [KC]

Yep, KC don't deserve to be favs over anyone. 190 total yards (to over 500! :scared ) inc. a paltry17-29 on the ground.
Of course, Da Raiders are no Baltimore, but they did do a great job v. SD, holding them to just 152 yards thru 3/4's. Fell away late defensively, but I doubt KC has the capabilities.
Oakland just may be on the right track...3-0 ats last 3 real games, inc. a SU win @ TB, and have won the last 2 meetings @ KC SU, both as dogs.
(23-8 last time even!).

Carolina @ Atlanta under 43.5 (1.90)

League: 1-10-1 under (Av. total 40.8...av. score 34.9) any home fav, off a 7+ ats win as home fav with 30+ mins TOP, and opp lost by 21+ ats. [Atl]

Looking for the Panthers to come out super conservatively this week. There's talk of a lot more 'full protection' sets, and Williams getting at least 25 touches.
14 of Philli's points last week were D/ST, as well as 10 within one series of a turnover.

kurby

 

[spang]

Don't play a lot of NFL but always read your thoughts.
I agree with your opinion on NE under but a little worried because they lost Mayo, who is the heart and soul of their defense. I really like the Jets to win that game.

GL this season.

 

[Old School]

you are on top of things..

bad beats right out the gate..

some inside on Colts..


Indianapolis limited the Jaguars to 228 yards - among the lowest totals of Week 1 - and consistently pressured David Garrard(notes) into quick throws, limiting him to 14-of-28 passing for 128 yards.
?I?d say we blitzed upward of 10 times Sunday, and that?s about 10 more times than we?ve done in the past,? linebacker Gary Brackett(notes) joked. ?Last year, that wasn?t really our philosophy. We had some blitzes, but they were mostly run blitzes.?
Miami had limited success running the ball - Williams and Ronnie Brown(notes) combined for 82 rushing yards - and its much-heralded wildcat formation didn?t work well. Rookie Pat White(notes) was used in it for three plays that netted 1 yard.

Colts will probaably put Clarke in the slot this week..This usually results in that short control game than Manning is just deadly at and has been a clock killer..Backup tight-end is highly touted and could be of help on Monday Night too.

"
Things don't get any easier on Monday night for Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson. These two players will be asked to defend Colts tight end Dallas Clark for most of the game. Clark, though, presents a different challenge than Gonzalez did. Clark is shorter and faster than Gonzalez. And with starting receiver Anthony Gonzalez on the shelf for Indy, there's a good chance Clark will be used even more split out wide as a slot receiver. This poses an entirely different issue for the Dolphins. Clark is too big and strong to matchup a cornerback with him. But he's too quick for safeties. So whoever gets the job of covering Clark play in and play out will have their hands full."
http://www.thephinsider.com/2009/9/17/1033689/dolphins-vs-colts-three-key?ref=yahoo

Thanks for all the insight you provide..It certainly was a huge factor in my success last season.

 

[MrChristo]

Wow. Thanks OS. :00x1

Only here to amuse myself really (here and the girlie thread! :00hour :142smilie ), so happy my thoughts are helping others along. :mj06:

Can't get the Jets out of my mind either, spang. Got a 14-0 'system' favouring NE, but don't think I can play it.
Got lucky to get the under at that high number. :0corn

Last 2...(I hope!)

SF -1.5 (1.94)
Houston @ Tenn under 41 (1.91)

Will give some reasons over the next couple of days.

Good Luck all

 

[grandpa]

Took a couple of horrific totals beats myself (NYG-Wash, NE-Buff, Oak-SD) and Cin ML, but still eked out a winner. Always check in with you , Mr Christo, and a big amirer of your info/work.

Have a great year, buddy

 

[raledet]

Goodluck

Goodluck

Like your Carolina under and Oakland picks. :00hour

 

[el JB]

love the SF -1.5 and Indy UNDER games
best of luck Chris:toast:

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks guys. :mj06:

SF -1.5 (1.94)

Going against one of my own little theories about running the ball here...(was that the lowest ypc number in history??!! :scared ) 25-21! :scared ...but I do like the way they've addressed it during the week, basically re-enforcing the point that they won't ever abandon the ground game...besides, they still won!
SL went @ over 4ypc on Seattle last week, and SF have had success on the ground v. Seattle in recent times.
Last year lost at home (SF) 13-34...but look at the numbers.
FD's: SF 21-14!
Rush: 124-39!!
Pass: 264-222!!!
TOP: 34:02-25:58!!!!

The Beck (as opposed to The Hoff kurby ), didn't play that game, but he did play in the 30-33 OT loss @ Seattle last year.
I was weighing this game up as it was, but then stumbled on a couple of BIG trends I found just too tough to ignore.

League: 0-7 (Av. loss 10.7!) away (-3 to +3) off a 14+ ats win as home 7+ fav, if opp ran for <50 yards in a Div game. [Seattle] (yeah, bit random I know...but...

League: 21-2 SU (Av. win 7.3) home Conf (-3 to +3) off a SU (7+ ats) win as a road 'dog, if opp is off a 14+ ats win. (SF)

9ers playing better than 'expected', and Seattle being over-rated off a big win against a horrible opponent.

Houston @ Tenn under 41 (1.91)

League: 0-9-1 under (Av. total 41.9...av. score 34.6) any away dog, off a 14+ ats loss as home 3+ fav, if they had <50 yards rushing, and both games last went 'under'. [Houston]

I guess sometimes there just isn't a conspiracy! Houston struggled last week, about 180 total yards, 13-38 on the ground and zero offensive points...now travelling to one of the best D's in the country? (Sorry America)...world! :142smilie
Shaub isn't 100%, Davis likely out, Walter maybe back, but first game off a hamstring...
They scored 13 and 12 on the Titans last year, and although they may have some success on the ground here, I don't think the Tenn offense is going well enough to get this one over 40.


Right, back to drowing the sorrows after my Bulldogs threw away a spot in the AFL Grand Final. :sadwave: :drinky:

Good Luck all

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I think your Doggies were a bit stiff Christo. Umpires didnt do you any favours either! :shrug:

 

[MrChristo]

I think your Doggies were a bit stiff Christo. Umpires didnt do you any favours either! :shrug:

A bit stiff, Pawa!...

I was at the game mate, and hear me when I say people were holding me back from jumping the fence...

...so much worse than it looked on tv (I've seen the replay). Johnson gets blatantly bumped out of a marking attempt up forward (more than once), ok...Golden Boy gets a finger laid on him...goal...

4 goals directly from wrong free kciks, without counting the missed Hudson kick late (which lead to the sealer)...angry.

Honestly, first time I've ever been too crabby to drink! :nono: Nasty times...

 

[Hooks]

Chris, it's lookin like a very good week for you in my opinion. GL Dave

 

[MrChristo]

Denver v. Cleveland under 38.5 (1.91)

Brownies in a 0-12-1 under spot with an av. score of 30.4