Wk. 2.

[MrChristo]

4-3-1 (+0.64)

[Titans SB @ +4100 pending]

Atlanta v. Arizona under 43 (1.95)

Falcons have gone under in 10 of their last 11 games!...and it's their offense that constantly seems to be over-rated. They've scored over 23 just once in that run...they gained just 3.3 ypc (26th) in pre-season, and had an awful 58/25 last week...admittedly at a tough venue, but still...
...and with White and Gonzalez constantly double teamed (fwiw, White was thrown to 23 out of 44 attempts last week!!), Ryan doesn't have a lot of great options to throw to.
As I said last week, Cards are going to be a far more conservative, run first offense this year...and I'm still not sold on Anderson to consistantly hit targets.
Two conservative offenses v. two solid D's.

Detroit v. Philli under 41 (2.03)

League: 2-11 under (av. total 39.1...av. score 28.2!) road 3+ fav, off any ats loss as home dog, if opp last had <26 mins TOP. [Phil]
(0-5 under (Av. score 27.8) if total is 40+ )

Pretty logical as far as trends go...neither team can score! : Hill stating for the Lions is a huge concern for them, esp. against a solid Eagle D...less than 170 total yards v. a suspect Bears D last week...not sure what they can possibly muster here.
Vick starting for Philli, sparked some life in them last week, but he's still not a consistant scorer...plus he's still behind a patch-work line that just got worse with their starting Centre now out.
Detroit run D is actually pretty good...
Vick will make some big plays for sure, but with one team unlikely to score it looks a pretty big total to me.

Oakland v. SL OVER 37.5 (2.00)

League: 9-1 OVER (10-0 this no...av. total 42.2, av. score 54.4!) any dog off a SU loss as home 3+ dog, with 32+ TOP, <110 rushing, and opp lost by 7+ ats. [SL]

[Oak also in a 7-2 over (9-0 SU) spot where the home team scores 28.7 ppg.]

Terrible spot for a bad defense! Teams (historically at least) have really struggled in this spot, going 1-9 SU, and giving up over 35 ppg!
Basically, their opp [Oak] being favs despite a big loss last week says it all...got a bit lucky last week (as did I!) as the Cards gave up 4 fumbles...but gave up over 400 yards at home...
Oakland travelled across the country to face one of the best D's in the NFL...whole other ball game v. the Rams at home.
Jackson will definately do some damage against this Raider run D, and Bradford still looks threatening enough...
...suspect the Raiders will score big and win, but SL will still get their share of points.


A couple more definates, but lines are soaring 'against' me.. :00hour

Good Luck all.

 

[LDB]

gl

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks LDB. :toast:

Miami +6 (Sportsbetting.com)

League: 11-1 (Av. WIN 6.2! [9-3 SU]) any Non-Conf dog, off a SU win as road 3+ fav with 34+ mins TOP. [Mia]
...4-0 SU (Av. WIN 16.0!! ) if opp last had <100 rushing.

Vikings didn't show much at all last week imho, just 12 FD's v. a team hardly known for it's suffocating D...Harvin is a game-time decision, and they are very thin at CB...
Miami really controlled the game @ Buff...obviously it's going to a lot tougher to run on this D, but I do like the look of the Miami defense. I think they can keep them in the game and the offense can make enough plays when needed to just about pull this one out SU.

 

[MrChristo]

Carolina v. TB under 39 (1.96)

The one team specific stat that I keep turning to...

Carolina: 1-16 under (Av. total 39.9...av. score 34.2) as home Div favs under Fox.

Absolutely Mr. Conservative! Clearly plays his cards close to his chest is these games...
...and even more so you'd think with this team.
Moore still likely to start, but Clausen only 1 knock away...the running game will be absolutely paramount here.
They were ordinary last week anyway...less than 250 total yards...got some great field position all the first half (didn't start behind their own 40 the whole half)...
...now facing a TB team who is 10 of last 12 under...under-rated D who haven't allowed over 20 points in their last 6 on the road.
Again, not sure scoring just 17 at home to a poor Cleveland D is any good!...Panthers fell away late v. a pounding NYG run game, but Bucs don't have the same threat.
20-17 game at best.

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

god luck MC !!


vicc

 

[Hooks]

I LOVE MR.CHRISTO :toast:


OAK OV - MIAMI - CARO UN :bigun:

 

[MrChristo]

...not that there's anything wrong with that...:mj07: :0074

NYG @ Indi under 50

League: 2-19 under (Av. total 45.5...av. score 35.7!) any home fav, total 40+, off a 10+ SU loss as road (-3 to +3), if opp last had 34+ mins TOP. [Indi]

0-14 under (Av. score 33.6!) if they had <30 mins TOP themselves.

I think the Giants will look to run, run and run some more here to keep the Indi offense off the field. Had good success last week v. the Panthers, and with no Sanders there's no reason they can't be successful pounding the ball all day long.
Obviously their D was a bit hard to judge against a toothless Panthers, but they did look sharp.
Indi/Houston score was a bit misleading...21 points in the last 5 minutes...14 in the last 2 minutes even...
There will be some points scored here, but 50 is a big number...7 of 8 Indi home games last year were 51 or less.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

......yeah....he's not bad.....but geez :142smilie


Magpies hard to stop now Christo :facepalm: . Saints will need a miracle defensive effort next week.

Go get em mate

 

[MrChristo]

Yeah, they were depressingly good Friday night. :facepalm:

Speaking of depressing...same I50's, 1 extra shot...
...if Hall takes a couple of those easy marks and kicks 4.1 instead of 1.3 it's a whole different ball game. (Not that I'm blaming him in the least!)

Watched Nth Ballarat get the job done today for a couple of your old boys. Pretty good standard game. :toast:

Anyway...2 more...

Tennessee -4.5

League: 10-1 (Av. win 14.2) any home game, total <38, off a 7+ ats win as home 3+ fav with 150+ rushing, if opp last won SU. [Tenn]
8-0 (Av. win 18.6!) as a fav. (Hold opp to 12.4 ppg)

Dixon on the road facing one of the best D's in the NFL...could be a very long day for the Steelers after scoring just 3 FG's in reg at home last week...
Titans running game won't have it all their own way like last week v. the terrible Oakland D, but I think Pits were helped out a lot by a pretty tame Atl offense last week...
...they gave up 20+ in 5 of 8 on the road last year anyway.
Some injury concerns with Starks and Hampton out...
Really like the look of the Titans this year...probably win this one by DD's.


and a 3 team, 6.5 pt. teaser to finish off...

SD -1/2, Oakland +3, SF v. NO under 50.5 (2.60)

SD dominated last week's game, but the conditions (pouring rain) and a punt return TD were the main reasons for the loss.
They held the ball for over 37 mins!...and held Casell to just 10/22 for 68 yards...
...Orton picked apart the Jags D easily, and they really should have won that game bar 2-0 turn-overs and some poorly timed penalties.
SD the better team and should do enough to win at home.

Already said that I expect Oakland to score big and win...surely they couldn't lose by more than a FG...

League: 6-18 under (Av. total 41.3...av. score 37.8) home dog off a 10+ ats loss as road 3+ fav. [SF]
0-8 (Av. score 32.0!) if they had 30+ mins TOP.

Much like the Indi game, I'm expecting SF to try to control the game and keep Brees off the field. They aren't a big scoring team so will rely heavily on Gore and the defense to keep them in the game. (Which I think they will. )


Good Luck all.

 

[MACH1]

Just wanted to say thanks for the trend write ups.

I used them to hit a 6 team teaser, but just barely pushed the stupid Oak/St.L game on the over.

Thanks again.:toast:

 

[MrChristo]

Happy it helped someone. :toast:

(Now if only I could get them to help me! :facepalm: ) [I was this close to adding the NYG under to the tease... :sadwave: ]

2-5 on the day with the teaser pending...

SF +5 (1.94)

League: 7-17-1 (Av. win 2.8) road 3+ fav off a SU win as home 3+ fav with <100 rushing but 30+ TOP. [NO] **
1-11 (Av. win 1.1) if opp also had <100 rushing.

** And 0-6 (Av. LOSS 0.7) if off 7+ days rest. :shrug:

49ers weren't anywhere near as bad as they looked last week...held Seattle to under 250 total yards, 3.0 ypr...this is a D who held teams to under 10 points at home in 6 games last year!
Of course Smith can be a worry, but I'm expecting Gore to really get moving this week and keep this game close...
...(and hopefully low scoring, papa hopes not to sell his shoes! :violin: :142smilie )