9-5 (+3.43)
Chicago -3
League: 2-17-1 (av. loss 12.8) any home dog, off a 3- ats win as any home fav. [Min]
(0-1 last season. Philli 0-42 Seattle @ +4)
0-10-1 (Av. loss 15.3!) if they were favs of 3 or less.
People will point to the fact that Chicago have beaten two of the worst teams in the country, but Minni have been pretty fortunate themselves.
They have played two teams that simply can't score! Minni have scored just 1 offensive TD in 2 games, and were extremely lucky to force OT last week with Carolina fumbling on a rediculous lateral, and they still needed a trick play to get in the end zone.
Grossman is on fire for the Bears, completing passes at over 10.4 y/a, 71% and a rating of 128.7!! This gives them the balance they have been missing in recent years, as they still have a strong running game and soid defense.
I don't see how Minni score much more than 10 in this one, and the Bears shold roll on with another decent win.
(Pissed off I missed the -3 @ 2.00 early...will wait now to see if it settles back on -3...but if not I don't mind taking -3.5 at a decent price )
(1/2) Tennessee +11...(1/2) Tenn ML (~ 6.75!!)
League: 3-12 (8-7 SU...av. win 4.5) home 7+ fav, off a 14+ ats loss as home fav of 7 or less. [Mia]
(0-1 last season. Cinci 21-14 GB @ -9)
Two favs of 10+ both lost SU!!!
League: 11-3 SU! (Av. WIN 0.8) any away dog, off a 14+ ats loss as away 7+ dog, if opp is off any ats loss! [Tenn]
5-0 SU! (Av. WIN 7.8) off a 21+ ats loss.
Sure, Tennessee have looked terrible so far, but plenty of teams will get belted @ SD...and statistically they hung with the Jets.
Miami have looked every bit as bad!!! They can't possibly be DD fav's...and in a spot where historically they are 50/50 chance to win this game, the current odds are MASSIVE...and definately worth a shot.
Still thining about.....
Seattle -3.5...probably the strongest, and one I'm likely to play.
League: 9-2 (Av. win 8.1) home fav of 7 or less, off a 10+ SU win as home fav of 7 or less, if opp is off any upset SU win. [Seattle]
(1-0 last season. NYG 27-10 NO @ -3)
...because I agree totally with the situation. WAY too much hype about the Giants this week. Yeah, yeah, massive comeback, Manning this, Manning that...fact is they were 17 down against a Philli team that isn't expected to go too far, and were only let back in to the game due to i) A poor Philli running game that couldn't keep them on the field with the clock ticking. ii) 2 very poor turnovers (A turn over on downs as they went for a 4th and 1, and a fumble in NYG territory).
Neither of which will be the case this week.
I'm not sure Seattle have started the year all that well either, but tough ask for NYG, coming off an emotional Div win on the road, only to fly cross-country to play one of the most solid teams in the NFL.
Washington @ Houston under 37.5
League: 2-10 under (Av. total 39.6...av. score 32.2) away fav of 7 or less, off a 10+ ats loss as away dog of 7 or less, if opp was last a dog. [Wash]
Washington's offense has been terrible so far, but not sure about this one, as it looks early like anyone can score 20+ on this Houston D.
SF +6.5
League: 4-12 (Av. LOSS 1.8) away fav of 7 or less, off a 7+ ats loss as home 3- fav. [Phil]
1-8 (Av. LOSS 6.9) if opp ifs off any ats win!
Logically, Philli looks the play, but I just don't think SF are geting enough respect yet. They are 2-0 ats, and coming off an easy home win where they moved the ball well. We saw Philli struggle to run the ball last week, and it may come back to haunt them again with Westbrook ?? and Kearse out for the year on the defensive side.
Got a feeling SF keep this one close, if not score the upset.
Cinci/Pits under 41.5
League: 4-12 under (av. total 40.5...av. score 36.1) any away dog, off an ats win as home 10+ fav, if opp is off any ats loss. [Cinci]
(0-3 under last season. Wash 0-36 NYG @ 42.5, Atl 3-16 Chic @ 30.5, Denv 23-7 SD @ 44)
League: 4-10 under (Av. total 41.1...av. score 33.8) home 3- fav, off a 10+ ats loss as away 3- fav. [Pits]
...so a combined 8-22 under situation.
Might play this one. Pittsburgh offense looks terrible. BR clearly isn't 100%, and I think the Cinci D can hold the running game in check.
(They allowed just 32 yards in 14 att's to Droughns last week, and Larry Johnson 17-68 in week 1.)
My only concern is what Cinci might put up on the Steelers!!! ...actually I'm leaning toward taking Cinci with the points...but the under looks ok aswell.
Good Luck all
Chicago -3
League: 2-17-1 (av. loss 12.8) any home dog, off a 3- ats win as any home fav. [Min]
(0-1 last season. Philli 0-42 Seattle @ +4)
0-10-1 (Av. loss 15.3!) if they were favs of 3 or less.
People will point to the fact that Chicago have beaten two of the worst teams in the country, but Minni have been pretty fortunate themselves.
They have played two teams that simply can't score! Minni have scored just 1 offensive TD in 2 games, and were extremely lucky to force OT last week with Carolina fumbling on a rediculous lateral, and they still needed a trick play to get in the end zone.
Grossman is on fire for the Bears, completing passes at over 10.4 y/a, 71% and a rating of 128.7!! This gives them the balance they have been missing in recent years, as they still have a strong running game and soid defense.
I don't see how Minni score much more than 10 in this one, and the Bears shold roll on with another decent win.
(Pissed off I missed the -3 @ 2.00 early...will wait now to see if it settles back on -3...but if not I don't mind taking -3.5 at a decent price )
(1/2) Tennessee +11...(1/2) Tenn ML (~ 6.75!!)
League: 3-12 (8-7 SU...av. win 4.5) home 7+ fav, off a 14+ ats loss as home fav of 7 or less. [Mia]
(0-1 last season. Cinci 21-14 GB @ -9)
Two favs of 10+ both lost SU!!!
League: 11-3 SU! (Av. WIN 0.8) any away dog, off a 14+ ats loss as away 7+ dog, if opp is off any ats loss! [Tenn]
5-0 SU! (Av. WIN 7.8) off a 21+ ats loss.
Sure, Tennessee have looked terrible so far, but plenty of teams will get belted @ SD...and statistically they hung with the Jets.
Miami have looked every bit as bad!!! They can't possibly be DD fav's...and in a spot where historically they are 50/50 chance to win this game, the current odds are MASSIVE...and definately worth a shot.
Still thining about.....
Seattle -3.5...probably the strongest, and one I'm likely to play.
League: 9-2 (Av. win 8.1) home fav of 7 or less, off a 10+ SU win as home fav of 7 or less, if opp is off any upset SU win. [Seattle]
(1-0 last season. NYG 27-10 NO @ -3)
...because I agree totally with the situation. WAY too much hype about the Giants this week. Yeah, yeah, massive comeback, Manning this, Manning that...fact is they were 17 down against a Philli team that isn't expected to go too far, and were only let back in to the game due to i) A poor Philli running game that couldn't keep them on the field with the clock ticking. ii) 2 very poor turnovers (A turn over on downs as they went for a 4th and 1, and a fumble in NYG territory).
Neither of which will be the case this week.
I'm not sure Seattle have started the year all that well either, but tough ask for NYG, coming off an emotional Div win on the road, only to fly cross-country to play one of the most solid teams in the NFL.
Washington @ Houston under 37.5
League: 2-10 under (Av. total 39.6...av. score 32.2) away fav of 7 or less, off a 10+ ats loss as away dog of 7 or less, if opp was last a dog. [Wash]
Washington's offense has been terrible so far, but not sure about this one, as it looks early like anyone can score 20+ on this Houston D.
SF +6.5
League: 4-12 (Av. LOSS 1.8) away fav of 7 or less, off a 7+ ats loss as home 3- fav. [Phil]
1-8 (Av. LOSS 6.9) if opp ifs off any ats win!
Logically, Philli looks the play, but I just don't think SF are geting enough respect yet. They are 2-0 ats, and coming off an easy home win where they moved the ball well. We saw Philli struggle to run the ball last week, and it may come back to haunt them again with Westbrook ?? and Kearse out for the year on the defensive side.
Got a feeling SF keep this one close, if not score the upset.
Cinci/Pits under 41.5
League: 4-12 under (av. total 40.5...av. score 36.1) any away dog, off an ats win as home 10+ fav, if opp is off any ats loss. [Cinci]
(0-3 under last season. Wash 0-36 NYG @ 42.5, Atl 3-16 Chic @ 30.5, Denv 23-7 SD @ 44)
League: 4-10 under (Av. total 41.1...av. score 33.8) home 3- fav, off a 10+ ats loss as away 3- fav. [Pits]
...so a combined 8-22 under situation.
Might play this one. Pittsburgh offense looks terrible. BR clearly isn't 100%, and I think the Cinci D can hold the running game in check.
(They allowed just 32 yards in 14 att's to Droughns last week, and Larry Johnson 17-68 in week 1.)
My only concern is what Cinci might put up on the Steelers!!! ...actually I'm leaning toward taking Cinci with the points...but the under looks ok aswell.
Good Luck all
