Wk. 3.

[MrChristo]

7-6 (+0.4)

Rough start, about to be turned around... :0corn :drinky:

Baltimore v. Cleveland under 38.5 (1.93) [2 units]

One of the oldest, most reliable systems in play...home fav of 3 or less after a bye week is solid gold under material.
3-24 under (Av. total 40.3...av. score 31.6) inside Div games since '89...(NO 13-16 Caro 2007 @ 43.5)...
...0-7 under (Av. score 25.0!) if total is 38 or less. (Which I expect this one soon will be.)

Cleveland have looked horrible offensively, scores of 10 and 6, doesn't figure to improve much v. the Raven D...
...then their defense leaks rushing yards, but only in small chucks, perfect for long, time consuming drives. (4.6 av., longest 23)
Baltimore just allowed nothing in wk. 1. 2.9 ypr, just 2 of 13 3rd down conversions.
They threw for just 4.4 ypp and all 3 TD's in that game came from 1) a trick play (reverse), 2) broken play (QB run) and a fumble return.

Big number under any circumstances, but even more so given previous results.

NE v. Miami under 35.5 (2.00)

League: 2-16-1 under (Av. total 36.4...av. score 28.7) 10+ dog, total 38 or less, off a 14+ ats loss as any dog, if opp is off any ats win. [Mia]
0-11-1 (Av. score 27.9) if opp is off a 7+ ats win.

How do Miami score? Chugging away at 3.0 ypr, Pennington got benched last week, now facing a Pats team who've allowed 10ppg, and given up 7 and 0 to Miami in their last 2 visits.
NE a totally different offense without Brady, running more than 50% of the time...and haven't topped 21 in their last 8 games @ 15.8! :scared
Definately looks a 20-10 type game to me.

Indi -5 (1.95)

League: 11-1-1 (12-1 this no...av. win 14.5) home 3+ fav off a 1-3 SU (and ats) win as away (-3 to +3) if opp is off a 7+ ats loss. [Indi]
8-0 (Av. win 17.0!) if their game went under.

Jacksonville are in much the same boat as Minni (no, not that porn one! :mj06: )...should get a decent amount of yards on the ground...(although they haven't so far, av'ing just 3.0 ypc)...but just 2 TD's, 4FG's for the season, it's going to be tough to score enough to trouble Indi, who finally looked like coming to life late last week.
Indi a chance to effectively end the Jags Div chances this week, and I think they will do.


Buff v. Oakland under 37 (1.90)

League: 2-12 under (Av. total 41.6...av. score 32.2) away 7+ dog off a 10+ ats win as away Div 3+ dog, if opp is off any ats win. [Oak]
0-6 (Av. score 25.8) if opp last went under.
(Jets 6-10 Tenn @ 37 in 2007)

Totally dismissing Oakland's offensive, 23 point explosion last week!...KC giving away rushing yards for fun...but Buff allowing just 3.8 ypc, (one 20+) so the Raiders certainly won't have that success again.
Buffalo running 50% of the time, but really relying on their passing game to move the ball (just 3.3 ypc), which will play into Oakland's defensive strength...well, less of their weakness anyway!
Bills got 11 'extra' points in week 1 from a punt return and a fake FG pass.
Happy to take the under at this number.


Will be on NYG/Cinci over, but hoping for a 41...would really like a GB +4... :shrug:

Scary situation of the week...(2 I didn't take last week went 1-1 on Detroit and Indi)...

League: 5-16 (Av. LOSS 0.5) home 3+ fav off a 7+ ats loss as away Div 7+ dog. [Atl]
(1-2 SU in 2007)
0-7 SU!! (Av. LOSS 4.9) any 3+ dog, off any ats loss as Div 7+ dog, if opp is off a 7+ loss and their next game is away. [Atl]

League: 34-15-3 (Av. loss 2.6) away 3+ dog, off a 14+ ats loss as home Div 3+ fav. [KC] (2-0 2007)
20-6-3 (Av. loss 3.1) if they had <28 mins TOP.
10-1 (Av. WI 0.4) if they had 2 or less TO's.

...How the hell do you take KC...even @ +6...without a QB, without any DB's...without, well, a win in their last 11 for a start!!
Giving up 5.7 ypr, Atl going at 6.0...will surely have to play safety help all game....
...I...just...can't... :00x25

Good Luck all

 

[baby johnson]

mr C, there was no bye for cleve or balt last week??

still love the plays though :00hour

 

[Hooks]

mr C, there was no bye for cleve or balt last week??

still love the plays though :00hour

Balts. game vs. Houton was PPD. therefore you can say Balt. had a bye.

 

[Hooks]

Cheers Mate,

Liken your plays except maybe the Indy play. I'v noticed over the years that teams laying 5 pts. don't do so well. Don't know why.

Is the Buff/Oak play still good at 36.5 :shrug:
Kick some ass this week Chris, Hooks

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks guys. :toast:

(Obviously wasn't scheduled, ahjoah, but a week off is a BYE in my books...hopefully won't matter too much. )

Would be happy to take Oakland under down to 34 Hooksy, I got the 37 so was happy to go with it.

Not sure if anyone has been taking too much notice...but GB are on a 15-0 over run!! :scared :scared

 

[MrChristo]

NYG v. Cinci over 41 (1.91)

League: 17-2 over (Av. total 43.4...av. score 54.0!) home 10+ fav off a 14+ ats win as away 7+ fav. [NYG]
7-0 (Av. score 61.9!!) if non-Conf.

Basically, the Giants look like putting up a decent score here.
Cinci have given up 17 to a rookie QB and ordinary Baltimore offense and 24 to another average offense (Tenn) in a hurricane!
The good news for them is that they've played probably the 2 best D's in the league...not that NYG are bad either, but I think Cinci are better than Washington or the Rams.
A 27-17 game looks a very reasonable result to me.

Green Bay +3 (2.00)

League: 1-10-1 (Av. LOSS 1.0) any away fav, off a 1-3 ats loss as Div 3+ fav, if opp had 34+ mins TOP. [Dal]
(NE 38-35 NYG @ -13, 2007)
0-7-1 (Av. LOSS 1.1) if opp was away.

Seems teams get a bit happy with themselves after a close win against a Div foe, and don't take as much notice as they should against a solid team...which Green Bay certainly are.
[Funny how people keep going on about being Pat-haters...but where are all these people who were banging on and on about GB's GM and his systematic killing of that team...? :shrug: ]

Rogers going at nearly 8.5 ypp...117.8 rating!! :scared [and...who was the astute gentleman here who had Rogers to have a higher rating than Favre this year @ 3.00?! :toast: ]...
4.6 ypr...depsite Detroit hitting the lead late-ish, they had 35:28 mins TOP, and dominated the game.
Dallas had a good win on prime time last week, but first game of the year allowed nearly 5 ypr @ a pretty horrible Cleveland, not to mention GB have a far better D than the Brownies.
FG at home is big, imho...push at worst. :00x33

That;s it unless I get drunk enough to play KC + 6 in the next 60 or so hours... :drinky:

kurby (anyone know what the little dude actually represents?!)

 

[FirstnGoal]

I agree with most of your plays even though I'm not a big totals player.

Gutsy call on the Colts -5 because that one will be a war which might be decided in the final seconds (Jags MUST win this week)

I don't like this weeks card at all, but the Packers are starting to look good because they are catching the Cowboys coming off an hard fought emotional win on Monday night.

Best of Luck!

 

[gardenweasel]

7-6 (+0.4)

Rough start, about to be turned around... :0corn :drinky:

Baltimore v. Cleveland under 38.5 (1.93) [2 units]

One of the oldest, most reliable systems in play...home fav of 3 or less after a bye week is solid gold under material.
3-24 under (Av. total 40.3...av. score 31.6) inside Div games since '89...(NO 13-16 Caro 2007 @ 43.5)...
...0-7 under (Av. score 25.0!) if total is 38 or less. (Which I expect this one soon will be.)

Cleveland have looked horrible offensively, scores of 10 and 6, doesn't figure to improve much v. the Raven D...
...then their defense leaks rushing yards, but only in small chucks, perfect for long, time consuming drives. (4.6 av., longest 23)
Baltimore just allowed nothing in wk. 1. 2.9 ypr, just 2 of 13 3rd down conversions.
They threw for just 4.4 ypp and all 3 TD's in that game came from 1) a trick play (reverse), 2) broken play (QB run) and a fumble return.

Big number under any circumstances, but even more so given previous results.

[l:

i couldn`t agree more....i don`t know ho came up with this number....but,they must know something we don`t know....

i expect the ravens to keep this on the ground....they`re getting mcgahee back and new rb`s rice and particularly big back mcclain(2nd year from bama)will prove to be a deep,fresh,diverse group of backs to pound the brownies with all day...

raven defense is relatively healthy...

g.l. c.....

 

[MrChristo]

Not a massive fan of player props, but interested in a couple here...

Fred Taylor PK over Addai @ 2.62! :scared (+162)

Am I missing something? Addai has done nothing so far...15-20 v. Minni and 12-44 v. Chic...
...granted Taylor has been slow out of the blocks too, 9-18 @ Ten and a 14-49 v. Buff...
...but Indi's run D is awful compared to those guys.
Allowed 35-180 v. Min (Peterson 29-160) and 39-183 v. Chic (Forte 23-123) @ over 5.4 ypc.

Jax held Buff to 26-75 (Lynch 19-59), let Tenn get on some 32-137, but only 3.6 allowed all up.

Last year in Indi Taylor had 104 yards on just 14 carries, Addai was just 21-67...
...in fact 3 of the last 4 meetings (both @ Indi) Taylor has covered him comfortably.

Seems like a massive price to me, with potentially the wrong man being favoured even!


The other one is Delhomme over 221.5 passing.
They won't be able to run, and with Smith back...
Manning went over 300 there last week, Jake had 247 @ SD...although 128 last week v. a pretty solid Chicago D...

...which does lead me to one more...Orton +20.5 to Griese??!! :shrug: :scared
Griese just 160 (31 attempts!) last week v. a pretty poor Atlanta secondary.
Chicago held Manning to 5.2 ypp and Delhomme 128/21 last week.
Orton good for 150 each week...

...maybe Greise under 181.5 is just slightly the better option?

Opinions would be great thanks people! :toast:

EDIT: Taylor PK v. Addai (2.62)

Play. Something I just read on the Indi website...Sandors expected to miss, and with him out teams av.. 5.0 ypr (142.8 ypg) compared to 4.3 (120.4) with him playing! :scared
Indi also look like being without their starting left tackle as well. :toast:

 

[jer-z jock]

Not a massive fan of player props, but interested in a couple here...

over 5.4 ypcFred Taylor PK over Addai @ 2.62! :scared (+162)

Am I missing something? Addai has done nothing so far...15-20 v. Minni and 12-44 v. Chic...
...granted Taylor has been slow out of the blocks too, 9-18 @ Ten and a 14-49 v. Buff...
...but Indi's run D is awful compared to those guys.
Allowed 35-180 v. Min (Peterson 29-160) and 39-183 v. Chic (Forte 23-123) @ .

Jax held Buff to 26-75 (Lynch 19-59), let Tenn get on some 32-137, but only 3.6 allowed all up.

Last year in Indi Taylor had 104 yards on just 14 carries, Addai was just 21-67...
...in fact 3 of the last 4 meetings (both @ Indi) Taylor has covered him comfortably.

Seems like a massive price to me, with potentially the wrong man being favoured even!


The other one is Delhomme over 221.5 passing.
They won't be able to run, and with Smith back...
Manning went over 300 there last week, Jake had 247 @ SD...although 128 last week v. a pretty solid Chicago D...

...which does lead me to one more...Orton +20.5 to Griese??!! :shrug: :scared
Griese just 160 (31 attempts!) last week v. a pretty poor Atlanta secondary.
Chicago held Manning to 5.2 ypp and Delhomme 128/21 last week.
Orton good for 150 each week...

...maybe Greise under 181.5 is just slightly the better option?

Opinions would be great thanks people! :toast:

EDIT: Taylor PK v. Addai (2.62)

Play. Something I just read on the Indi website...Sandors expected to miss, and with him out teams av.. 5.0 ypr (142.8 ypg) compared to 4.3 (120.4) with him playing! :scared
Indi also look like being without their starting left tackle as well. :toast:

BOL as always Mr.C..the only thing I can think of with the prop play is that Vanessa Del RIo, oops I mean Jack Del Rio said this past week that pocket mighty mouse(Jones Drew) isnt getting enough carries and plans on giving him the load of the work from WHAT HE SAYS...of course everyone doesnt always do as they say but maybe they know the little guy will get a heap of carries. Other then that it may be worth a shot just for th price of it, and J.A. as you mentioned has been useless thus far. Again well wishes on the plays and BOL with the season as well

 

[60 SEC ASSASSIN]

love them unders this week MrC. gl with the rest of your plays as well :SIB