Well, nothing disasterous...but would one winning week be too much to ask? :shrug: :0corn
9-12 (-3.64)
Jags +3 (1.91)
League: 11-1 (Av. WIN 7.0) Divisional home dog, total 40+, off a SU win as a road dog with 150+ rushing yards. [Jax]
Well, the obvious is that the Titans are 0-3.
I'm concerned about their offense (and I'm sure they appriciate me for it! :mj07: )...scored big v. a TERRIBLE run D (Houston) but just 10 and 17 v. pretty good defenses...The Jags have a better run D than both of those teams. (3.7 ypca...Pits 3.8, Jets 3.9)
Admittedly pass D isn't their strong suit right now (8.2 yppa), but neither is the Titans' @ 8.0.
I think it'll be a tight game either way, so the home team getting points doesn't make much sense to me...
Cleveland +6 (1.94)
League: 3-20-1 (Av. LOSS 5.5) any road fav, off a 1-3 SU win as a home 3+ dog. [Cinci]
1-10 (0-11 this no...av. LOSS 9.6) if they allowed 250+ yards passing.
Now, this is the same situation NYG carried in with them to Tampa...:nono: (although, they didn't allow 250 passing the week before)
...but 1) it's a Div game, and 2) Cinci aren't anywhere near as good as the G-men.
[And, it does include Indi 10-6 @ Cleveland as -4.5 favs last year. :00hour ]
Browns being under-rated here (yes, it is possible) after facing 2 very good D's, both on the road, but scored 20 @ home v. a better Minni D.
The world is pretty high on Cinci after beating the Steelers late last week, but they were out-gained by about 100 yards and needed a couple of miracle plays near the end.
Brownies keep it close.
Detroit @ Chicago OVER 38.5 (1.91)
League: 18-5-1 over (Av. total 43.0...av score 47.5) home 10+ fav, off any game as road fav where they gave up just 2 (or less) punts. [GB]
9-0 over inside Div.
Bears D got a bit lucky last week, 2 missed FG and the game still went over relatively easily. (2 missed FG's by Pits the week before too...)
Detroit defense is still a disaster, so expecting Chic to knock up at least 27 on their own.
You'd have to say Stafford is going alright, got some decnt weapons to work with, has scored at least 13 in all 3 games...and if Dan Orlovsky can throw for nearly 300 yards and score 23 last year, surely another 13-17 or so isn't too much to ask!
Does look a lot like a 27-17 kinda game.
TB @ Wash OVER 37 (2.00)
League: 14-2 over (16-0 this no...av. total 43.1...av. score 51.5!) any 7+ fav, off a SU loss as a road fav, with 240+ yards passing but <26 mins TOP. [Wash]
Pretty sure last week was the jolt the Washington offense needed. Campbell threw for over 300 yards and 2 scores...sure the Lions' D sucks (8.4 yppa), but Tampa's is worse still! (8.9) and are giving up over 30 ppg.
Josh Johnson taking over @ QB...but 1) The Bucs should still have some decent numbers on the ground, with Washington allowing 4.4 ypc and Haynesworth ??, so I'm pretty sure they'll go a bit more run first than their SEVEN runs by RB's on Sunday. :sadwave:
...and 2) He still won't play defense! :142smilie
9-12 (-3.64)
Jags +3 (1.91)
League: 11-1 (Av. WIN 7.0) Divisional home dog, total 40+, off a SU win as a road dog with 150+ rushing yards. [Jax]
Well, the obvious is that the Titans are 0-3.
I'm concerned about their offense (and I'm sure they appriciate me for it! :mj07: )...scored big v. a TERRIBLE run D (Houston) but just 10 and 17 v. pretty good defenses...The Jags have a better run D than both of those teams. (3.7 ypca...Pits 3.8, Jets 3.9)
Admittedly pass D isn't their strong suit right now (8.2 yppa), but neither is the Titans' @ 8.0.
I think it'll be a tight game either way, so the home team getting points doesn't make much sense to me...
Cleveland +6 (1.94)
League: 3-20-1 (Av. LOSS 5.5) any road fav, off a 1-3 SU win as a home 3+ dog. [Cinci]
1-10 (0-11 this no...av. LOSS 9.6) if they allowed 250+ yards passing.
Now, this is the same situation NYG carried in with them to Tampa...:nono: (although, they didn't allow 250 passing the week before)
...but 1) it's a Div game, and 2) Cinci aren't anywhere near as good as the G-men.
[And, it does include Indi 10-6 @ Cleveland as -4.5 favs last year. :00hour ]
Browns being under-rated here (yes, it is possible) after facing 2 very good D's, both on the road, but scored 20 @ home v. a better Minni D.
The world is pretty high on Cinci after beating the Steelers late last week, but they were out-gained by about 100 yards and needed a couple of miracle plays near the end.
Brownies keep it close.
Detroit @ Chicago OVER 38.5 (1.91)
League: 18-5-1 over (Av. total 43.0...av score 47.5) home 10+ fav, off any game as road fav where they gave up just 2 (or less) punts. [GB]
9-0 over inside Div.
Bears D got a bit lucky last week, 2 missed FG and the game still went over relatively easily. (2 missed FG's by Pits the week before too...)
Detroit defense is still a disaster, so expecting Chic to knock up at least 27 on their own.
You'd have to say Stafford is going alright, got some decnt weapons to work with, has scored at least 13 in all 3 games...and if Dan Orlovsky can throw for nearly 300 yards and score 23 last year, surely another 13-17 or so isn't too much to ask!
Does look a lot like a 27-17 kinda game.
TB @ Wash OVER 37 (2.00)
League: 14-2 over (16-0 this no...av. total 43.1...av. score 51.5!) any 7+ fav, off a SU loss as a road fav, with 240+ yards passing but <26 mins TOP. [Wash]
Pretty sure last week was the jolt the Washington offense needed. Campbell threw for over 300 yards and 2 scores...sure the Lions' D sucks (8.4 yppa), but Tampa's is worse still! (8.9) and are giving up over 30 ppg.
Josh Johnson taking over @ QB...but 1) The Bucs should still have some decent numbers on the ground, with Washington allowing 4.4 ypc and Haynesworth ??, so I'm pretty sure they'll go a bit more run first than their SEVEN runs by RB's on Sunday. :sadwave:
...and 2) He still won't play defense! :142smilie
