Wk. 7.

[MrChristo]

23-25 (-4.03)

Gunna just flip a coin if I don't have a winning week here soon...

I guess consistancy is the name of the game... :142smilie

Chicago +1 (2.05)

League: 0-13-1 (Av. LOSS 5.2) home fav (line 0 to -7) off a SU loss as home 3+ fav, with <50 yards rushing. [Cinci]

Cinci has scored more than 17 offensive points in reg. in just one game all season! They got shut down last week by a pretty bad (run D esp.) Houston, now face the 6th best run D, and 6th best overall D, allowing just 4.8 y/play.
Sure, they beat Pittsburgh (1 home win in 3), but got a free 7, had 100 less yards and nearly 10 less TOP!...besides, the Bears also beat Pits...
Bears had 100+ more yards than Falcons last week (and more rushing)...had 100+ (and more rushing again) in their only other loss this year...sure, Cutler will turn it over at some point...but on the season he has a better % than Palmer, better y/pass, better rating and the same 7 picks.
Bears more likely to get the big plays in this one and get the win.

Pits -4

League: 11-2-1 (14-0 this no. Lowest win 7...Av. win 17.6!) any home game, off a 7+ SU win as home 7+ fav with 290+ passing. [Pits]

Vikes three road games so far have been @ Det, SL and Cleveland...(2-17 SU for anyone counting! )...3 of the bottom 5 for total D...Steelers 3rd best...
...Baltimore D getting shown to be worse and worse each week (8th worst team v. the pass! ), 'lucky' late win v. an average SF, and getting a GB D well below full strength. [Haven't been anything less than a FG fav in any game yet.]
Steelers absolutely dominated the Browns last game, the score didn't reflect it, and BB should be able to throw for a lot of yards again with Winfield out, esp. as the Vikes are already giving up 7.8 y/pass, 7th worst.
Happy I got a 4 early, as the line is a lot more realistic @ 6 or 7.

Philli @ Washington under 37.5

Any reason Redskin totals keep getting posted higher than 30? Haven't scored over 17 yet...now coming up against 7th best run D (3.6) and THE best overall (4.4 y/play)...given they've played just some horrible D's, how do they score here??
But, to their credit, they do play some good D. 4th best overall (4.6) [against bad teams admittedly], top 10 passing (both ypp and total)...last week was no Eagle mirage...no TO's, just happened to be the first half decent D they'd faced! (NO maybe)...
Last years meeting here was 10-3 with the total @ 37...

SL v. Indi under 45.5

This one has Miami/Indi all over it...without the 'bad' team scoring! Rams haven't scored over 17 offensive points in a game yet, and av'ing under 10!
They can run the ball however, and Jackson should have some success keeping Manning off the field with some time consuming drives.
Indi will score when they do have the ball, SL 3rd worse pass D @ 8.3 yppa, but SL won't be able to keep up, so the dogs will be called off nice and early.
Even with a Rams late TD, 23-10? :shrug:

Few more to come... kurby

 

[MrChristo]

Carolina -7 (1.95)

League: 13-1-1 (Av. win 13.9) home fav, total <38 off a 7+ SU (and ats) win as road fav with <125 yards passing. [Caro]

Carbon copy of last week. Panthers run, run and run all day on the NFL's worst run D, allowing 181 yards @ 5.3! I guess there is always a chance that Delhomme has a Sanchez-like 5 INT game...but honestly Jets, what were you thinking?! 10-3 up and throw 2 picks on the first 2 possessions after HT, on a 1st and 2nd down!!
Bills haven't topped 14 in the last 4 games...Lord, I know Tampa sucks arse, but incredibly they do have both a better run attack and D than the Bills, and given Caro scored 28 and won on the road by a TD, pretty sure they do better still at home in this one.

GB -8

League: 7-0 (Av. win 23.3!) road 7+ fav, off a 6+ ats win as home 7+ fav, with 34+ mins TOP and 270+ passing. [GB] *(also applies to NE)

League: 2-11 (Av. loss 13.7) home, non-Div dog, total 40+, off an ats win but 7+ SU loss as a road 3+ dog. [Cavs]

Forget the flu, Cleveland are just awful! Shouldn't rightly have gotten within 30 points of the Steelers last week and now face a higher scoring team still.
Packers D back to full strength last week and it showed...sure it was only Detroit...but this week it's still only Cleveland! :142smilie
They've played just 2 losing teams so far (Cinci, Chic and Minni a combined 13-4), and won by 19 and 26.

 

[MrChristo]

Dallas -4 (1.97)

Dallas are being a bit undervalued here because of their last game, obviously going to OT v. the Chiefs isn't a good thing!...but no Felix Jones and no Williams to stretch the defense, and as bad as he's been I think he could have a big one against a Falcon secondary who could have 2 new starters and missing Brian Williams.
Dallas run game is putting up big numbers (5.9 ypr!) and I think that's bad news for Atlanta, who are allowing 4.7 and over 45% 3rd down conversions largely because of it.
Funny how perception is that the Cowboys suck, but their only 2 losses have been v. teams who are a combined 11-1.

Eli Manning OVER 225.5 passing (1.83)

Very low total against the 31st ranked pass D! I know they dominated Seattle last week, but key injuries to the Seahawk O-line was a major factor.
Cards have allowed 280+ in 3 of 5 games...2 very good passing teams (370+ to both Indi and Houston!), but 282 to an average Jacksonville who av. 20 yards less passing per game, and are just 18th overall @ 6.9 y/pass...NYG av. 8.2ypp.
Eli's numbers have been up and down...256 v. Washington and 330 v. Dallas...just 161 v. TB, but threw only 24 times in a big win...
292 v. KC
...173 v. Oakland with just 10 attempts!!...and 178 last week but the Saints have a surprisingly strong pass D, allowing just 217 (14th) @ 6.2 (4th!)...
'Zona give up 310.7 (31st) @ 7.4 (19th)...and given no QB has throw less than 29 times v. them (Seattle last week), I think Manning gets over this number reasonably easily.

 

[MrChristo]

SD @ KC under 44


League: 0-15 under (Av. total 40.9...av. score 32.6) road fav of 2.5+ off a SU loss as home 3+ fav, if opp is off a 10+ ats win. [SD and Jets]

Big total for a Chiefs game...haven't scored more than 20 offensive points in a game, and av. just 16. SD have had some high scoring games, but they have played 3 of the top 10 offenses (Pits, Balt, Denver)...and there were 3 D/ST TD's last week too.
KC rank 30th in total yards and just 4.1 y/play and convert a league low 21% of 3rd downs.
SD run game is terrible and it's leading to problems in the red zone.
There will probably be a few big plays, but overall if the Dallas game only had 40 'real' points, I don't see why this one would top it...both games last year went under this total too.

Jets @ Oaktown under 35 (1.95)

More realistic total for this game, but still like the under.
2 pretty good D's, 2 pretty bad scoring teams...2 QB's who will be told to do nothing more than hand off all day long.
There were more rushes than passing plays in this meeting last year, ended 13-13 in reg...and that was with the Jets having a better QB (although he threw 2 picks) and a better D this year.

Right...no more! :0corn

Good Luck all.

 

[baby johnson]

thanks mr c, let kill em