World Cup - props/futures

nakor

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I'm by no means a soccer guru, but a couple of things caught my eye...

1. Argentina vs. Brazil (who will go farther): -110 each way

I was under the impression that Argentina was a much better squad than Brazil. Is there a big roadblock in the draw for Argentina? If not, I will hit this one pretty hard.

2. Portugal player scores hat trick in WC 2002? No at -225

Granted USA and Korea are not great, still that seems like a pretty good deal as hat tricks are rare in soccer. Unless that means 'for the tournament'? Otherwise I will be betting this one.

3. Goal in first 3 minutes of any game: Yes -240, No +200

Any ideas on this one? No idea how often it happens, but you do get 63 shots at it.


4. To not qualify for Round 2
England +125
Ireland -113
Japan +110 (!)

Unfortunately there is no line for the USA, else I would pound it. Can't see them making it with two decent teams and host Korea in the group. I look to fade USA thrice. I was also told that England is in trouble as far as qualifying... figure around 50% so +125 should be an overlay? Similarly for Ireland and Japan... yes Japan are hosting but are they any good?

5. To qualify for Round 2
Uruguay +110
Mexico +175

I was under the impression that both these squads should have not too much trouble going through.


Thanks for any advice. I am also considering fading Brazil at -733 not to win the whole thing, but dislike having that much at risk. However if they are as disorganized and thuggish as reported, I cannot see them even making the final.

Nakor
 

Anders

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Few thoughts...

1) Yes, the Argies do have a much tougher draw. Firstly, there's no guarantee they'll get thru group play - they probably will but it's a tough, tough group.
If they finish runner-up, they should meet France (Group A likely winner) in the 2nd rd. If they win the Group, they would meet meet Denmark/Uruguay/Senegal....much better. Brazil's group is much easier then they could meet Russia/Belgium/Japan in the 2nd rd.

2) No has some value if u r happy playing chalk.... not many underdogs are pushovers at WC level nowadays. This would stand for the whole tournament but it will get harder after group level. Portugal did get a hat-trick at Euro 2000 from memory - Conceicao?

3) Yes would be the better option but depends on your wagering approach to chalk.

4) England at +125 has some value - tough group, stack of injuries.... but if Beckham, Owen, Campbell stay fit they have the class to sneak thru...
Ireland -113 also worth considering now Keane is out - he is their inspiration. They battle hard and may pull of an upset v Germany but might find Cameroon and even Saudi hard to get past...
Wouldn't touch Japan - are in a decent group in terms of weak opposition and I believe home advantage will be huge. Have taken them to win this group at +250 and to be best Asian team at +150

5) Mexico I like...they raise their game come World Cup time and are revitalised under a new coach. Italy are sluggish in Group play while Croatia are classy but aging. Uruguay not too keen on - Recoba is sensational but they struggle to score; like Denmark and even Senegal better in this group behind France.

Wouldn't touch that Brazil price with a barge pole...they've never been written off like this before for a WC; could work mightily in their favour..

Hope this helps mate :cool:
 
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nakor

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Thanks for your input. I will probably pass on fading Brazil, at least for now... don't mind laying some chalk but over 7-1 would not be pleasant should it come in.

I was thinking that the -240 on goal in 1st 3 minutes was probably slightly better... no _need_ to bet it, but if there is value I will take it. Probably will pass tho.

Think I will stick to England no, Ireland no, Mexico yes, and no hat trick for Portugal. Along with I'm sure many bets during :) Going to go with Senegal +1.5 Friday.
 

nakor

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OK here's what I ended up with... only playing very small, more for interest than for making a killing.

Mexico to advance +175
England not to advance +125
Ireland not to advance -114
Argentina to last longer than Brazil -110
Mexico to last longer than USA -220 (1/2 unit)

Also shorted the following at WSEX:

Brazil @12
Spain @ 8
England @5
Portugal @5
Germany @4

So basically I'm laying 66-34 (slightly better than -200) that either Argentina, France, or Italy will win. Might add Cameroon @1 but would hate to get beat by a 99-1 shot.

Also playing in the first match Senegal +1' -125 for one unit and Draw +340 for 1/2 unit.

Let the games begin ;)
 

nakor

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Added a few bets (of course)... mostly cadged from others as usual for a sport I know little of...

Group winners

A: Denmark +700
B: Spain -200
C: Turkey +500
D: Portugal -167
E: Cameroon +250
F: Argentina -137
G: Mexico +700
H: Japan +200

(Mostly for rooting interest, etc.)

Also added one contract long Argentina @18 to win.

Thanks again for everyone's input on this event - at least the games last longer than 2 minutes (cf horse racing debacles).

Nakor
 
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