Ronnie,
I think each game has to be looked at individually. I can honestly say that part of my handicapping for this game was that I felt that I had a good chance of getting a backdoor cover if the Raps were not as competitive as I expected. If you knew Rogers was out, knew that the Raps only were dressing 8 and knew that the Nets had a tough as heck western road trip coming up, then you can add all of those things together to figure there is a good chance of getting a backdoor cover.
To be honest, I was down on this game when the Nets were up 30 points or whatever it was, but I know that games are graded on 48 minutes, not 40 minutes. I remember a similar thing happened to me the other way last season. I played the Charlotte moneyline at +220 over the Nets in NJ and the Bugs were up over 20 at half. Charlotte happened to be playing a lot of games and, sure enough, their tired legs caught up with them and they lost the game. I was ticked as heck, but the best way to handle these things is to realize that handling the highs and lows of handicapping is one of the most important things involved in making money long term.