YANKEES PROGRESSIVE PLAY

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phoenix566

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After mulling over various angles and strategy all week, I feel pretty comfortably playing this. I am going under the assumption that the D'backs will not win the first 3 games from NY. We get the added benefit of the Yanks being the dog first 2 out of those 3. If the Yanks win tonight, play is over. If they lose, double up on them tomorrow. Same principle as Fletcher's system against the road dogs in first series.

GAME 1 PLAY:

YANKEES + 130

10 *


From earlier in the week:

UNDER 6.5 -110

BIG

good luck to all and heres to a 2-1 final!!!
 
shamrock

shamrock

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Phoenix I also pounded the under. I like Yankees today also, however tomorrow is probably the 1 day I like Arizona. Just feel Johnson will be extremely difficult on Yankee lhb, without O'Neill Justice & Tino I see a Arizona having a shot tomorrow.
Good luck
shamrock
 
T

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
phoenix, i like this progressive play and have been salivating for over a week to see if this works...
the only thing that can screw us is a sweep by arizona.

biggrin.gif


I'm on the YANKS for 5 units...
LOCK AND LOAD.
 
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phoenix566

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Well, it is no secret that todays play is the Yanks. It's a shame I did not go with the first instinct which was to scalp on the series lines. Yanks are now +140 to win series which would have equated to a guaranteed 30-40% return on investment had I played Ariz in series yesterday.
frown.gif
congrats to those that did.

I felt better with Mussina on the mound yesterday, but then again what do I know.....


YANKEES + 150

20 *


Also feel like getting kicked in the nutz again playing the under.

UNDER 6.5 Even

2*

I know this does not mean anything, but I was wearing my MJ T-shirt yesterday. Amazingly it has brought me bad luck everytime I wear it. I have thrown it in the trunk of my car today....hopefully that will do it for us NY backers
wink.gif
 
SixFive

SixFive

bonswa
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I was just reading this thread, and I have come to some interesting conclusions. This is where you are right now. Down 10 units + 20 units for a total of 30 units. That means with your progressive strategy that u will have to win 40 units on Tuesday to recoup your loss of 30 units and have a net gain of 10 units which was your original starting bet amount. Since Roger Clemons is a -230 chalk, you will have to bet 93 units to win 40 units. SO, 93 units Tuesday plus 10 units Saturday + 20 units Sunday for a grand total of 123 units all bet to win 10 units. Not very good odds!!

To further analyze, I'm assuming that you truly bet and that a unit is 50 dollars as that would be common. That means you are going to be laying $4,650 on Roger Clemons at -230 on Tuesday, and that you have already lost $1,500. That's a total of $6,150 wagered to gain $500
eek5.gif


I might not have even done this calculating had I not remembered you were the one who was questioning this same tactic used by fletcher on 10/9 (a strategy which I thought was stupid as well although he won). IMO, this is pure and simple CHASING.

This "progressive" betting tactic requires a sizable bankroll that most bettors do not have. This sort of strategy makes absolutely no sense in a ml sport like baseball. At least if you were betting football or hoops, u would be laying only -110 each time. I hope no newbies or otherwise inexperienced gamblers followed your lead here.

Please examine your betting strategies for the future as this one SUCKED!! A great way to lose all your money. Bookies love bettors who chase, and that's all this is. Chasing. For your sake, I hope u win this bet tomorrow if u go through with it.
 
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phoenix566

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interesting.....I make this sort of play and someone can come right out and tell me it sucks (after the fact).

i question when someone else does it and I am immediately chastised as being petty and bickering.

I am glad this has happened, as you are right, this strategy sucks!! or maybe it just sucks when I play it.....

Did I really play it? Does it matter? Will they win tomorrow? Of course....the chalk kings are calling it a best bet!!! perhaps I'll risk 186 units...

thanks for chiming in 65
rolleyes.gif
 
F

fletcher

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no this is how a progression is ran on a baseball series,there are many big players that play them and only them all year in baseball so it isnot just a money chase.
you have to stay with it thats the reason you play a progression,i told you all when i did it twice and won both times that if you were to play like this you had to have the funds to ride it out to make it worth while,good luck you should win this game and it will stop the progression with you on the + side thats all that matters,i love you guys that say well look what you risked your return on investment sucked like i said return on investment is for stock brokers and handicappers that are book readers it doesnot pay the bills bottom line hard cash does.
 
SixFive

SixFive

bonswa
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I didn't chastise u the last time, in fact, I agreed with u. I know we all bet our own money here, but there are some newbies who will see that post and bet money they don't have on it. They see a guy who posts 168 units and think what a great play and lose money they don't have. Some people read these posts and think that this stuff is true. Now, that might be stupid, but it is true. There are probably hundreds of people who come here looking for advice who NEVER post a thing. Also, u will notice that with Fletcher's "progression" strategy he started with ONE unit, not TEN. If you think you know how to bet and that this is a good strategy, you are sadly mistaken. I will also add that it's a good thing u don't really bet! 168 units, lmfao at u! A unit must be what, a rice kernal? A matchstick? A toothpick?
evil_laughter.gif


I have bitten my tongue on many occasions in this forum as there is a lot of stuff that goes on here that I think is comical and just plain idiotic. Lots of times I have written out a comment only to delete it and go on. I spoke out this time because Phoenix is full of dog doo and even says in his post, "Did I really play it? Does it matter? " Of course it matters. Phoenix u did the same thing even with the math last month. Hopefully, nobody takes u serious any longer after a 168 unit play on a -220 chalk.

Fletcher as far as u go, Nick Douglas says u are a great guy and that is fine by me. He also told me that u legitimately bet, and aren't just bullshitting everybody. You are a chalk player, but if that works in your situation, more power to you. This strategy, however, is purely chasing. I could see MAYBE doing it in a pointspread sport like hoops or foots when the line is always -110, but not in a ml sport like baseball or hockey.
 
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phoenix566

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65,

You make valid points and I will not disagree with you on most of them. I truly do regret playing this now, but I really did feel Yanks would get one of two in Zona. And they were a DOGGY both days, so even at same unit plays, I coulda made some dough if they split.

I did really play this. You are dead on with your math. I'm down 1,500 so far. Not for nothing but my I think my 10* is less than Fletchers 1* in amount.(please correct me if I am wrong). Remember everyone here defines units differently. I know for a fact that some players 25 unit plays are less than a nickel.

As far as 'lurkers' seeing my 168 unit play and jumping on board, I really doubt it. They know, as do you, who the 'gods' here are. The rest of us are just 'filler'.

I started the play, so I am going to finish it. I don't like being in this situation any more than Fletcher probably did after the first two of his losses. He stuck to his plan though and it worked out. Despite what 'others' might think, I admire you for that Fletcher. Win or lose, you stick to what you know works for you and obviously are still here and not drinking nightrain in an alley with BTJ
wink.gif
.

If the unimaginable happens and the Yanks lose tomorrow, my fate lies in the hands of elDuque to avoid a sweep. Hope it don't come to that.

On that note, I'm audi....gonna try and sleep until 10:30pm tomorrow....NOT!!!
 
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