I am not particularly crazy about this game.
In Mussinas last 3 starts he has yielded 12 Earned runs, with 5 and 6 coming in his last 2. Against AZ, he gave up 10 hits in 5 innings while giving up 8 hits in 6 innings vs. Col while facing 27 batters. Mussina has not cracked 100 pitches in his last 3 starts staying in the mid 80s in all 3.
During that span his ERA has jumped from 4.07 to 4.62. The only upside to all of this is that he never cracked 100 pitches during that span.
Lawrence has given up 5 ER in his last 3 starts with 4 of them coming in his last start vs. Boston in which he twirled 7.1 innings and giving up 10 hits. His pitch counts have been 101.104, 110.
Lawrence could be in a "down" cycle as Nick Douglas commonly refers to.
In his 3 most recent starts
Tampa Bay W 29 BF 7 IP 1 ER
Baltimore W 29 BF 8IP 0 ER
Boston L 32 BF 7.1 IP 4ER
With Boston maybe signaling that he is about to hit a valley.
Lawrence will not help the yankees with the free pass, as his highest walk total was 3 in a 7 inning stint.
I would also check the Yankee lineup and make sure they are not rolling out there with Alberto Castillo, Ron Coomer and Jon Vander Wal if I were to lay that much wood on them facing a pitcher like Lawrence who has really been solid all year.
Hope I have provided a little insight. Good Luck
