you guys are blowing my mind

[pepin46]

am i the odd man out here?

you are talking about team streaks, i pick up here and there about team's lack of hitting, whether they are last or first, etc.

it is all very interesting, but in my limited, but sucessful experience, it still boils down to pitcher vs. pitcher and finding the right odds. game selection should be first, but based on pitching match-ups and looking for that extra value.

i am not following bb every day, mainly just sundays, but just about every sunday there are (perceived) odds aberrations, i look for them, analyze, and if right in my opinion, jump on them. this includes jumping on have nots such as tampa, etc., which have yielded the best results odds wise, but only when the pitching match-up is right.

there has been talk about the umpires, wind speed, humidity, attendance? should the handicapper not key on the main elements, and then use smaller variables as re-inforcements? when i hear talk about that, it appears like some of you are starting out from the premise of a streak, overdue, etc., thereby disregarding the main element, which in my mind is looking for value, eliminating toss-ups, etc.

atlanta is not hitting: nothing that livan hernandez and pitchers like that can't cure.

i don't know, tell me i've missed something here.


pep

 

[Kevin]

Eliminating tossups is a huge factor in capping. Pitcher vs. pitcher is a decent stat, but even more than that you have to see how those pitchers have thrown well as of late, how they throw home/road, how the opponent hits them, how the team is doing in their last 5 or so, hot hitters over the last few games, etc...and thats just the start of it. Handicapping is an 80 hr/week job. No joke.

 

[Junior44]

Pepin - Let me toss in my 2 cents here. I perceive you to be a relatively knowledgable capper, so my comments are not necissarly directed towards you, but the forum in general (or whoever is interested in my opinion). This is another interesting topic and don't want to make the assumption that everybody is aware of everything (especially the basics)

First of all, in my opinion, baseball HAS to be followed every day in order to achieve success wagering on it. The fact that you have 30 teams (basically) playing every day combined with the limited time frame in which pertinent info can be used deems this necissary. There have been a few seasons in the past where I took 3 days, maybe a week off, and came back completely lost. Baseball is unlike sports such as football in which you could basically hibernate through Wednesday and not skip a beat. Seeing as teams only play once a week, you have plenty of time to dissolve the info that floats in throughout the week. Baseball does not grant this luxury. Day games after night games are particularly challenging.

Now, obviously, the opposing pitchers are the single most important measurement in baseball capping, but not the only one. Not even close. The fact that baseball is, by far, the least physical of the 4 major sports combined with the "grind" of playing every day makes the mental and psychological aspects of this sport exponentially greater than the others. If you look at a team's pattern of play at season end, you will find that, almost universally, teams have their peaks and valleys (streaks). In other words, you don't see a particular team win 2 and lose 1 over and over again. This premise also holds true with the individual players. Guys get hot, guys get cold. A guy that hits .188 in June, may hit .402 in July. In a sport such as football, you never hear about "streaks" because the unit of measurement is much different. You don't hear about a team that has lost 4-straight games (1/4 of the season) as being in a slump. Reason being is this occured over a period up to as much as 5 weeks or so. And when is the last time you heard that Jerome Bettis is in a "rushing slump"?

Now, while the pitching match-up and current form of the team in general are key components, baseball offers so many other variables that must be accounted for. Some are important, some are not. I can't say which ones are, because everybody has their own theories. I do have mine, and to disregard them completely (although it would save me a hell of alot of time), would not only be foolish, but would not allow me to gain as much of an "edge" as I possibly could.

Here are a few common factors that sometimes have an influence on my capping, and sometimes do not. Weather: Several years ago, I did a breakdown of pitcher performance during warm weather vs cold weather and found the results very informative. Same with day/night splits. Take a look at Denny Neagle, Shawn Estes, or David Cone's stats and see what I mean. Attendance: Very much a factor. How much of a home field advantage do the Expos have with 4,000 fans in the stands every night? Also, several years back, the Padres had an incredible stat where they were something like 22-1 at home in front of crowds of 50,000+. Should this be accounted for in one's handicapping? Maybe. Maybe not. Wind Speed: very hard to get an accurate gauge on this, but in places such as Wrigley Field? All the difference in the world. Umpires: I'm not a big believer in this, simply because the sample size is so small and varies from year to year. But, I'm sure it holds some merit.

Bottom line, in my opinion, in a game such as baseball, with so many variables and so many games crammed into a short period of time, the "little things" are magnified. For me, the games are so frequent that I litterly do not have enough hours in the day to incorporate them all before the first pitch, but I attempt to pinpoint the one's that have the most validity and incorporate them accordingly.

 

[cash]

junior: Nice post

My field of success in the past has been NFL and as such found bases to be a bit of an
overload as you've mentioned.

I do believe team momentum often usurps
unfavorable pitching matchups and can offer
line value.Being early in identifying
these momentum shifts is my focus and disagree with Pepin in putting pitching
matchups first.One must find a capping style
that highlights live dogs and I think big mo
or lack thereof does that.

 

[Junior44]

Yes indeed cash. Finding the right dogs is the key to success in bases. However, the prospect of placing a bet knowing full well the chances of losing it are greater the winning it (betting the dog in most cases) is not easy to get a grasp of. It goes hand in hand with viewing sports-wagering (bases in particular) as a long-term propostition. Now, if we could just pinpoint exactly when a team starts a streak and when it will stop, we'd have it made.

 

[pepin46]

great, guys.

my intention was to get a few credible names in here and expand on this a bit. obviously our give and take is for all to absorb, and after all the crap i have seen on the other board, well, what could be more refreshing?

i am not suggesting that other factors don't have or may have an influence, but in order to make your initial selection process, as to what you will handicap, for example, your, or rather, my starting point has to do with money. i have to be beat over the head to make a selection that will cost me more than 100, so if i do a total, i must feel completely satisfied that it will lead to a win. the more i get in return, the higher the chance i will take a long look. i took a good look a couple of sundays ago at el duque pitching at home, laying heavy wood. i did not consider the game, as i thought the yanks would pull it thru with 7 innings from him, and then their star relievers sealing it. as it turned out, detroit pulled the freaky win. that's life. i did manage a solid plus 7 from my other 3 picks. now, i pounded on el duque last year when he was off form, about 2-3 games before he went on the disabled list. i and others picked up the trend and jumped on it. after he came back from dl, the game was over.

ocassionally, like last sunday, i went with atlanta vs. l. hernandez 'cause -125 was a gift in my opinion. because of my policy of not making my best bet(double bet) anything over a 100 (200) loss, i missed my bb, although i did consider that game to be the best proposition from what i handicapped. that i consider to be part of the game.

again, that leads me to pitchers vs. other considerations: what percentage of the games are decided by a hot streak, umpires, etc.? there lies the question, is the pitcher vs. pitcher the major consideration, can we say oh, 70-80 percent? if so, then the pitcher matchup should be my major consideration. now, if you are handicapping a trashy game that could go either way, then the totals may or should be the major consideration.

as far as an everyday thing, i respectfully disagree. this subject has been brought up on ocassion on this board, and i am beginning to think that sundays, which is what i usually key on because of my time limitations, may be an especially attractive day for pro gamblers.

weather wise, i am very aware of what a 120 degree field will do to a star pitcher (sundays again). that i will look for in the coming months, as the weather starts getting real nasty, temperature wise.

and finally, in your estimations, what percentage of the games are to be considered playable, as an average, profit wise? 1 of 5, 1 of 10?

i sure would like to see nolan, fletch, jack and a few other known 'cappers jump in here with their opinions.


pep

 

[Junior44]

Excellent stuff here.....Pep, I want to clarify something that I made in my earlier post. I wasn't suggesting that baseball needs to be WAGERED upon every day, but rather, it needs to be FOLLOWED every day. Which leads me to your next question: How many games should one play in, say, a week time frame. Many different cappers have many different opinions on this, and I guess it all has to do with comfort level, prior success (or failure), and time constraints. I've seen guys be successful (and not successful) betting 15 games a day and others only bet 1 game a day (or less). My take on the subject is the following: I handicap every game, every day. When I'm finished capping a game, it is either a play or it is not a play. In otherwords, if a game has value, I play it. Some days I may have 11 plays, other days I may have 0. The theory that I have a problem with is with those that put a cap on the amount of games they wager on during a given amount of time. WHEN the game is played shouldn't be a factor. Each and every game should be isolated. In otherwords, if you find a 10:00 game that has value, should the fact that you wagered on 3 7:00 games influence (or perhaps prevent) whether or not you bet on it? No. Because there is no correlation. Value doesn't keep time and if you wager on 2 games that you find to possess significant value, it doesn't matter if the games are played a month apart or simultaneously.

Another interesting point you brought up is Sunday baseball. I believe Jack, a few weeks ago, mentioned somewhere that Sunday is a good dog day. This may indeed have some merit. Sunday's games are almost always day games after night games, and is a common day for teams to rest their regular players. This leads to scattered or make-shift line-ups that could help or hinder a team.

 

[cash]

gentlemen:

I agree with junior about pulling the trigger whenever value seems apparent,regardless of how many games per card. At 2% a play I,ve never had more than
20% of my BR in action on any given day.


Pepin let me clarify a point. It's not that I
disregard the pitching matchup but the line
is relatively sharp when looking heavily at
the starters. Sometimes current form goes
against ytd stats and its these games I find
interesting as contrarian plays can surface.

I would say I play 60% dogs 30% favs of 150
or less and 10% totals.My intention is to
move to 30% totals and 10% favs and keep the dogs about 60%.I perfer to isolate day games
for overs as its my guess the lines are a bit soft considering how much easier it is to
see the ball.

BTW. I'm hearing the POKERS are about ready
to start playing bases again, so look for
some nice scalps soon.............gl

 

[scrubbo]

Pepin said the magic word VALUE!!! I look at starting match-ups and Bullpen reliabilty 1st, then I factor in how a teams is hitting over the previous week and lastly I put some weight( not too much) on defense because I've been burned twice by teams that can't field. It looks so simple, why isn't it?

 

[Junior44]

I'll probably get grilled for this, but I believe that bullpen usage (or overusage) is extremely overrated and, at the very least, cannot be generalized. I'm not saying that I don't incorporate it into my capping, I do. I just don't give it much weight and I CERTAINLY don't apply it universally. I've done various analysis on this and have not found a very significant correlation and I believe this is based on reason. First and foremost, a team's bullpen is the one aspect of a team's roster with the most unpredictability. I'm not referring to productivity but usage. It is the one aspect that may come into play and may not, and WHEN it comes into play is just as varied. If a SP goes 8 or 9 innings, the bullpen isn't even used. Conversely, a team that "seemingly" has a well-rested bullpen may have their SP knocked out in the first. Another important factor that is often overlooked is the fact that CERTAIN RP's actually pitch BETTER without rest (up to a certain point of course). This is the point where generalization comes into play, and one is better off looking at the SPECIFIC details of usage. Some guys can pitch just about every day, others can't. Also, teams' bullpens are so deep these days, with most teams carrying 6 RP's (some even more), that it takes an absolutly horrendous stretch of SP failure for their bullpen to become a serious problem. Again, it should be looked at specifically. An example is the Red Sox, who, if needed, could toss Tim Wakefield out there every day. Again, I don't disregard bullpen usage, I'm just careful how I apply it.

 

[pepin46]

wow, a gamut of opinions, seems like we all agree on certain points, disagree on others.

since nobody offered an opinion on how many games, i will throw mine:

i estimate that probably there is 1 in 5 games that can be seriously looked at for $$$$$$, and then you make your best 1, 2, 3 selections and go for it. like someone mentioned, some days a few more, some days maybe none.


pep

 

[TDP]

I also agree with junior44 about playing the games I feel have value whether it be 1 game or 10 games. Unlike most I do play alot of favorites and by years end do better than some, not as good as others.
I am curious about something. I see where most put a good deal of emphasis on value dictated by the moneyline. While I will not play a game like Arizona -300 last night(although I did lay 1.5 runs at -140 and lost), I do play a fair amount of games under -200 if I feel it grades out at 85% or better based on my personal criteria. I personally concern myself more with point spread sports when dealing with value as I feel the movement of points in a spread has much more of a direct effect on the actual outcome(in my opinion anyway). Having said that I do believe in moneymanagement and am normally a good judge of my streaks and bet accordingly. I suppose what I am getting at is this. First, do ya'll believe that playing baseball runs in streaks(sometimes good and sometimes bad) a good deal of the time as I do or do you disagree with my take on this. And second what types of moneymanagement do ya'll employ when playing baseball. I have been doing this awhile as most of you have, but I am always willing to learn from anyone willing to share. This is by far the best mastermind group of baseball players I have seen and I for one feel very fortunate to have found this forum. Any and all responses will be greatly appreciated. GOOD LUCK TO ALL...........

 

[cash]

TDP:

re MM

It's my opinion to not rate my plays.They either trip the play on switch or they don't.
I don't want to handicap my handicapping by
rating the strength of my plays as it can
lead to 3-1` record with no profit or even
worse a loss.

I flat bet 2% of my BR on any play I find.

junior:

good points about BPs, Team's closers should
imo be looked at separately from the rest of
BP.Look at the tigers last night,a two out
bottom of 9th dinger allowed and the inevitable loss in the 10th. The night before
the closer loads the bases in the bottom of 9th and luckily escapes with the win.The good ninth inning closer is valuable asset.

 

[pepin46]

tdp, all:

been away for a few days, and see other points brought up. i wish more guys would have jumped in, but i suppose some of them don't want to touch the subject for some particular reason.

agree all bets should be the same. you could be a very good capper and completely distort your results by forcing a double or triple bet on one particular game. you start a bad streak, then the tendency is to make them all triple or 5 times, or whatever to catch up. not a good idea in my mind.

as far as point spreads, yes, i thought the same way as you, being strictly nfl until a couple of years ago, but baseball has a different angle and it is very playable, you just have to use a different approach, and definitely the price has a lot to do with it, as i mentioned before.

i am running a tough contest here at madjack, where you are forced to make a best bet (double bet). i ran a similar one in football here as well, where your 4 picks are rated 6-3-2-1. another toughie. hope to have it again this coming season.

in real life, if i was looking to make money, i would definitely not alter the bets, yet, these contests have a way of making you a little better handicapper because of point/value disparity. how many guys i have seen go 3-1 and lose points, or just barely make a fraction cause they missed their best bet. me included.

cash:

i have found the most value the opposite, where the pitcher's name or yearly era sets the tone for the line, disregarding trends. these game usually offer super value, same as bad teams, going against the heavy favorites at home when circumstances are right, etc.

there was a discussion about a week ago about a game where the pitcher, who had a so-so era, but always bombed when pitching away. i think it was a pickem of slightly favorite. some where for, some against, but the result was as predicted: he bombed again. there is a lot of value out there, and even though i only do sundays, mainly for the contest, i always find at least a couple worth playing, always looking for an angle.


pep

 

[kcwolf]

pep,

Very nice thread you started with solid advice from everyone.

Junior's remarks fit my philosophy to a T. I swear I wrote Junior's remarks while reading it. My remarks would not have been as well written though.

With that in mind, I would like to expound on two things:

We are all different, but I, like Junior, couldn't possibly play this sport successfully without following it everyday. There are way to many situations one needs to stay on top of.

Kevin mentioned 80 hours a week. I agree. Hope nobody laughs, but my goal is to retire and move back to Vegas and do this full time. (Lived there 10 years)

I spend 30-40 hrs during the summer, and up to 80 hours in the winter. My job affords me that luxury. But even then, my life style is very, very different from the average US citizen.

I have 110% support from my wife (kids are grown up and live hundreds of miles away), and hire people to do everything else - from yard work to fixing up the smallest things in the home. Yes, I'm able to do most things, but that would take time away from what I feel I can make more at - gambling.

Bottomline, I enjoy this challenge and reasonably good at it. I grew up in an environment where you need to be successful in everything you do, or don't do it.

Here I go again - too much rambling.

My last point concerns the amount one wagers. I, personally, wouldn't even think of getting into this without a large bankroll and betting conservatively. A two unit wager for me is less than 1%. I play mostly two unit wagers.

Disagree on wagers need to stay the same. Much has been written about this subject and more to come I'm sure.

Yes, I have lost money on a 5-3 night a few times. Even 2-1. One must not get carried away, but I'll stand by my twenty year history of gambling, it's the better way to go for me.

When you see better value, why not bump it up? The flip side says why not play only those games? Good question that I struggle with from time to time. Each to their own.

Thanks for listening and always looking for better ideas.

Respectfully,

kcwolf