$100 to earn 1.7 million
- Thread starter RAYMOND
- Start date
CHICAGO CUBS (Assad) +105 over MILWAUKEE (F. Peralta)
Yesterday's victory elevated the Cubs' record at
Wrigley Field to 11-4 (+$740), yet they're posted
as slight underdogs in today's series finale. The
Brewers have now won every game started by Freddy
Peralta, but he has not looked sharp in his recent
outings (6.31 ERA last two). Javier Assad has been
outstanding in his five starts for Chicago (1.97 ERA)
and the team can move into a tie in the NL Central
with a win. Hard to pass up the home team under the
circumstances.
Yesterday's victory elevated the Cubs' record at
Wrigley Field to 11-4 (+$740), yet they're posted
as slight underdogs in today's series finale. The
Brewers have now won every game started by Freddy
Peralta, but he has not looked sharp in his recent
outings (6.31 ERA last two). Javier Assad has been
outstanding in his five starts for Chicago (1.97 ERA)
and the team can move into a tie in the NL Central
with a win. Hard to pass up the home team under the
circumstances.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, MAY 3
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The two top teams in the NL Central square off for the first time in 2023 and they appear evenly matched. The Brewers have been deadly in road games (12-4, +$1020) while Chicago checks in with a 10-3 record here at Wrigley Field (-$760). James Taillon has looked particularly sharp since joining the rotation, leading the Cubs to victories in each of his first three starts (+$335, 1.50 ERA). We’ll give him the edge over Tobias Myers (-$205, 4.50 in two outings) when they square off on Saturday. BEST BET: Taillon.
Colorado at Pittsburgh (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Pirates opened the season on fire, but they’ve rapidly fallen off the pace (3-7, -$425 last 10 days), as their offense struggles to score runs (.646 OPS, 3rd worst in the NL). However, their pitching has been way better than Colorado’s (3.80 team ERA vs. 5.92 for the Rockies), and the floundering visitor (2-14, -$1025 in road games), just suffered a sweep at Miami to the lowly Marlins. The Bucs are 6-3 vs. left-handers (+$405, 5.3 runs per game) so take a shot vs. Austin Gomber on Saturday. BEST BET: Pirates vs. Gomber.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (4) 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th
The Phillies are already 10 games over .500 (7-3, +$365 last 10 days) and they come into this series with the best team ERA in the National League (3.37). The Giants rank 3rd worst in that department (4.39) and they’ve averaged just 3.7 runs per game on offense so far. Philly averages 5.2 runs per game vs. right-handers (+$695) and they’ll face a trio of them at Citizens Bank this weekend. We’ll avoid Taijuan Walker, who stumbled in his 1st start, but Aaron Nola (+$400, 3.43 ERA) and Ranger Suarez (+$640, 1.32), look too good to pass up at the moment. BEST BET: Nola/R. Suarez.
San Diego at Arizona (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The NL West looks weak right now, with 4 of the 5 teams under .500. The Diamondbacks are averaging just 3.5 runs per game against right-handers, and they’ll have to contend with a San Diego team that checks in with a 7-2 record in night games on the road (+$615, averaging over 6.0 runs per game). Dylan Cease has been a useful acquisition for the visitor (2.78 ERA in six starts) and he’ll be on the mound in the series opener. Look for the Padres to draw first blood vs. their NL West rival. BEST BET: Cease.
Atlanta at L.A. Dodgers (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Dodgers have a comfortable lead in the NL West, but high prices are once again making them unprofitable. They are only 9-8 here at Chavez Ravine (-$865) and now they get to host the best team in baseball. The Braves have the 3rd best ERA in the National League (3.52) and they average 5.5 runs per game on offense. All three scheduled starters for Atlanta look sharp. Bryce Elder (+$200, 1.50 ERA), Charlie Morton (1.38 last two starts) and Max Fried (0.00 last 2) are hard to pass up vs. LA. BEST BET: Elder/Morton/Fried.
Detroit at N.Y. Yankees (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Tigers did not enjoy much success vs. the Yankees in 2023 (2-5, -$260), but they make a tempting choice in the Bronx this weekend. They come in with a 10-4 road record (+$775) and their overall team ERA is an impressive 3.12. The Yankees just dropped 3 of 4 to the Orioles at Camden Yards (5-6, -$435 in their last 11) and they’ve averaged just 3.4 runs per game vs. southpaws (-$595). Lefty Tarik Skubal (+$355, 1.72 in six appearances for the Tigers) is an obvious choice here. BEST BET: Skubal.
L.A. Angels at Cleveland (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
All bad news for the last place Angels (2-8, -$545), as Mike Trout heads for knee surgery. The pitching has been horrendous (4.98 ERA, 2nd worst in the AL) and they’re facing one of MLB’s top teams. Blake Lively has pitched well since joining the Cleveland rotation (2.30 ERA in three starts). He’ll be backed by an offense that is 6-1 vs. left-handers (+$515, 5.4 runs per game) when he takes on Reid Detmers on Saturday. BEST BET: Lively vs. Detmers.
Texas at Kansas City (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Rangers prevailed in 5 of 6 head to head meetings with the Royals in 2023 (+$340), but KC’s fortunes have taken a turn for the better in 2024 (19-13, +$805 so far). They own a 3.14 team ERA, and they’ve averaged 5.7 runs per game vs. right-handers here at Kaufman Stadium. Brady Singer has emerged as a top man in the KC rotation (+$230, 2.62 ERA) and he’ll be available at a decent price in Friday night’s series opener. BEST BET: Singer.
Seattle at Houston (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Mariners got the best of the Astros in head to head competition last year (-94, +$595), and that was a far better Houston team than the one they’ll be facing at Minute Maid Park this weekend. The 11-20 Astros have lost a fortune for their backers already (-$1485) and their 4.80 team ERA (3rd worst in the AL) is no match for Seattle’s outstanding 2.98 mark. We’ll back the visitor throughout and hope to take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Mariners in all games.
Boston at Minnesota (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
Amazing turn-around by the Twins, who have come roaring back from a 6-13 start to win their last 10 in a row (+$1005). However, they face a difficult task at Target Field this weekend. The Red Sox have the best team ERA in the majors (2.58) and their offense ranks 3rd best in the AL (.736 OPS). Tanner Houck (1.60 ERA in six starts) and Cooper Criswell (+$355, 1.29 in three starts) are likely to be available at reasonable prices. BEST BET: Houck/Criswell.
Baltimore at Cincinnati (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The 20-11 Orioles are atop the AL East after taking 3 out of 4 from the Yankees at Camden Yards, but they could suffer a letdown after knocking off their biggest AL East rival. The Reds aren’t nearly as good as the O’s, but they have two capable pitchers in Andrew Abbott (3.27) and Nick Lodolo (1.88) set to take turns. We look forward to seeing John Means, who is slated to return in the Baltimore rotation. We’ll keep an eye on this match-up. BEST BET: None.
Toronto at Washington (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
Toronto limps into DC having lost 7 of their last 10 (-$525, averaging just 2.5 runs per game in those contests) to take on a profitable Nationals team. The Blue Jays are only 7-10 on the road so far (-$225) and their pitching is mediocre (4.34 team ERA). MacKenzie Gore has a 3.19 ERA after his first six starts, and he should fare well against a Toronto team that has averaged a dismal 2.7 runs per game against left-handers in 2024. BEST BET: Gore.
N.Y. Mets at Tampa Bay (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
Things are heading in the wrong direction for the Rays (2-8, -$945 last 10 days), who have fallen into the AL East cellar as their re-vamped rotation flounders (4.63 ERA, 4th worst in the American League). The Mets, on the other hand, are pitching well (3.43 ERA, 2nd best in the NL) and they’ve turned a profit vs. right-handers outside of CitiField (+$525). The Rays are only 9-13 vs. right-handers in 2024 (-$835, averaging just 3.5 runs per game) so play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Mets when righty meets righty.
Chicago W. Sox at St. Louis (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The Cardinals can make up some lost ground when they host the most horrible team in MLB this weekend. The hapless White Sox roll into Busch Stadium with a 6-25 record (-$1410), the worst team ERA (5.15) and the worst offense (.603 OPS) in the American League. Veteran right-handers Sonny Gray (+$160, 1.16 ERA) and Lance Lynn (+$310, 2.64) have pitched well for St. Louis, though prices will be sky high. BEST BET: S. Gray/Lynn.
Miami at Oakland (3) 3rd, 4th, 5th
The 9-25 Marlins look to maintain some momentum at the Coliseum after sweeping the Rockies at Miami. However, the Athletics are not the push-overs they were in 2023, and they are closing in on a .500 record (+$690 so far). The Marlins did make money in inter-league competition last season (+$1020), including a sweep of the A’s in Miami, and Oakland can’t hit (barely 3.0 runs per game).
We’ll steer clear of these two teams for now. BEST BET: None.