WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 27
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| VT at TULN | 02:00 PM | TULN +10.5 U 43.5 | +500 +500 |
| UNC at WVU | 05:30 PM | WVU -6.0 U 60.0 | +500 +500 |
| LOU at USC | 08:00 PM | LOU -6.5 O 58.0 | +500 +500 |
| TAM at OKST | 09:00 PM | OKST -3.0 O 55.0 | +500 +500 |
CNOTES 2023-2024 COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS + NEWS AND NOTES
- Thread starter Cnotes53
- Start date
2023 BOWL BEST BETS !
12/27/2023.......................4 - 4......................50.00%..............- 2.00
12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0.................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00
TOTALS...........................21 - 20 - 1................51.21%................- 4.00
12/27/2023.......................4 - 4......................50.00%..............- 2.00
12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0.................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00
TOTALS...........................21 - 20 - 1................51.21%................- 4.00
Thursday’s 6-pack:
NFL leaders in passing yards:
4,214— Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
4,050— Brock Purdy, SF
3,984— Jared Goff, Det
3,938— Patrick Mahomes, KC
3,892— Dak Prescott, Dal
3,778— Josh Allen, Buff
Quote of the Day
“Nothing’s really changed except my bank account. I feel really good. I think it’s a great partnership. It’s what the team needed on the court and off. I’ll still be overseeing the basketball side of it……..”
Mark Cuban, who sold the Dallas Mavericks this week
Thursday’s quiz
Who coached the Jets when they won their only Super Bowl?
Wednesday’s quiz
Other than Tom Brady, Warren Moon is the oldest QB with three consecutive 300+ yard passing games.
Tuesday’s quiz
Lamar Jackson played his college football at Louisville.
**********************************
NFC East
Divisional home favorites 4-2 ATS
Non-divisional road underdogs 7-9 ATS
Non-divisional road favorites 5-4 ATS
NFC North
Divisional home teams 1-8 ATS (0-4 F, 1-3 U)
Non-divisional home favorites 7-4 ATS
Non-divisional home underdogs 5-2 ATS
NFC South
Underdogs 6-3 ATS in divisional games.
Non-divisional home favorites 3-6 ATS
Non-divisional home underdogs 3-6 ATS
NFC West
Divisional home underdogs 0-3-1 ATS
Non-divisional home underdogs 5-2 ATS
Non-divisional road teams 12-8-1 ATS
AFC East
Divisional favorites 7-2 ATS, 4-0 at home
Non-divisional home favorites 6-8 ATS
Non-divisional underdogs 7-13-1 ATS
AFC North
Divisional favorites 3-7 ATS, 1-4 on road
Non-divisional home favorites 13-6 ATS
Non-divisional road underdogs 5-3-1 ATS
AFC South
Divisional road teams 6-3 ATS
Non-divisional favorites 8-6 ATS
Non-divisional road underdogs 6-7 ATS
AFC West
Divisional home favorites 4-3 ATS
Non-divisional home favorites 6-8 ATS
Non-divisional road teams 8-12 ATS
— starting QB decisions for this week:
Washington will start Jacoby Brissett (18-30 as a starter) vs San Francisco
Giants will start Tyrod Taylor (27-28-1 as a starter) against the Rams
Broncos will start Jarrett Stidham (0-2 as a starter) against the Chargers.
— So Denver is benching Russell Wilson for the last two games; are they trying to get out of his contract?
Wilson is 35; he is currently signed through 2028, but he’s only guaranteed money through 2024. His entire 2025 salary ($37M) is guaranteed if he is still on the Broncos’ roster at the start of the next league year (March 17, 2024).
Put it this way; Denver’s options (trades) remain open, as long as Wilson stays healthy, which is probably why they’re sitting him out the last two games, since their playoff chances for this year are almost nil.
— Movie of the Day- One More Time (2015)- An aging New York City crooner plots his comeback. Christopher Walken plays the singer, Amber Heard is one of his daughters, Oliver Platt is his manager.
— current head coaches/managers who played in the big leagues:
19 of 30 major league managers played in the majors.
8 of 32 NFL head coaches played in the NFL
12 of 30 NBA head coaches played in the NBA.
— USC 42, Louisville 28
3rd-string QB Moss threw for 372 yards, 6 TD’s in his first college start.
First two drives, Trojans punted/missed FG.
On their next seven drives, they scored six touchdowns.
For the game, USC averaged 8.6 yards per play.
— Virginia Tech 41, Tulane 20
Hokies led 17-10 at halftime.
Tulane’s only first half touchdown was scored by their defense.
Tech was 7-14 on third down, Tulane 2-10 on a rainy day.
Hokies ran ball 50 times for 362 yards, 7.2 yards/carry.
— West Virginia 30, North Carolina 10
West Virginia threw a 75-yard TD pass on first play of the game.
West Virginia ran for 164 yards, were +2 in turnovers.
WVU outscored the Tar Heels 13-0 in second half.
Mountaineers won five of last six games, after a 4-3 start.
— Oklahoma State 31, Texas A&M 23
Cowboys led 24-6 at halftime, gaining 345 yards.
QB Bowman threw for 402 yards, two TD’s.
Oklahoma State was 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
Texas A&M finishes season 7-6.
— When Kansas beat UNLV 49-36 Tuesday night, they did something I’m not sure I’ve seen before; Jayhawks scored 49 points alright, averaging 16 yards/pass attempt, but they also had 18 penalties for 216 yards.
216 penalty yards in one game; not sure I’ve seen that before.
— Tennessee QB Joe Milton isn’t playing in the Vols’ bowl game: freshman Nico Iamaleava will get his first college start, against the staunch Iowa defense.
— NBA’s Atlanta Hawks are 7-30 against the spread this year, the worst ATS start by any NBA team in the last thirty years.
— Denver Nuggets F Aaron Gordon needed 21 stitches after his face and right (shooting) hand were cut while being bitten by a family dog on Christmas. Gordon is averaging 13.6 points and 6.9 rebounds this season.
— Hitting in the major leagues is harder than it used to be, in large part because hitters don’t see pitchers as many times as they used to.
Victor Martinez played 16 years in the major leagues, hit .295 with an .815 OPS; the most times he faced one pitcher? He faced James Shields 62 times in his career. There are three pitchers that he faced 50+ times, not a lot.
Joe Torre played 18 years in the major leagues, hit .297 with an .817 OPS; he faced 15 different pitchers a minimum of 75 times each. You see the same pitcher over and over, hitting is easier.
— How college football conferences are doing in the bowls:
AAC- 2-2 in bowls; all four games were decided by 18+ points.
ACC- 3-3 SU in bowls; underdogs covered four of the six games.
Big 14- 2-0 SU/ATS in first two bowls, winning 14-7/30-24.
Big X- 4-1 SU/ATS in first five bowls, scoring 32.2 ppg.
C-USA- 2-1 SU/ATS in first three bowls, with both wins in OT.
MAC- 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in first five bowls- they were underdog in all five.
Mountain West- 2-4 SU/ATS in first six bowls (over 4-2).
Pac-12- 2-2 SU/ATS in first four bowls (over 2-2).
SEC- Texas A&M’s 31-23 (-2.5) loss is only SEC bowl so far.
Sun Belt- They had 12 bowls, the most of any league:
Sun Belt teams went 1-7 SU/0-8 ATS in first eight bowls.
Sun Belt teams won/covered their last four bowls.
NFL leaders in passing yards:
4,214— Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
4,050— Brock Purdy, SF
3,984— Jared Goff, Det
3,938— Patrick Mahomes, KC
3,892— Dak Prescott, Dal
3,778— Josh Allen, Buff
Quote of the Day
“Nothing’s really changed except my bank account. I feel really good. I think it’s a great partnership. It’s what the team needed on the court and off. I’ll still be overseeing the basketball side of it……..”
Mark Cuban, who sold the Dallas Mavericks this week
Thursday’s quiz
Who coached the Jets when they won their only Super Bowl?
Wednesday’s quiz
Other than Tom Brady, Warren Moon is the oldest QB with three consecutive 300+ yard passing games.
Tuesday’s quiz
Lamar Jackson played his college football at Louisville.
**********************************
Thursday’s Den: Football trends, and other stuff……..
— NFL divisional trends………NFC East
Divisional home favorites 4-2 ATS
Non-divisional road underdogs 7-9 ATS
Non-divisional road favorites 5-4 ATS
NFC North
Divisional home teams 1-8 ATS (0-4 F, 1-3 U)
Non-divisional home favorites 7-4 ATS
Non-divisional home underdogs 5-2 ATS
NFC South
Underdogs 6-3 ATS in divisional games.
Non-divisional home favorites 3-6 ATS
Non-divisional home underdogs 3-6 ATS
NFC West
Divisional home underdogs 0-3-1 ATS
Non-divisional home underdogs 5-2 ATS
Non-divisional road teams 12-8-1 ATS
AFC East
Divisional favorites 7-2 ATS, 4-0 at home
Non-divisional home favorites 6-8 ATS
Non-divisional underdogs 7-13-1 ATS
AFC North
Divisional favorites 3-7 ATS, 1-4 on road
Non-divisional home favorites 13-6 ATS
Non-divisional road underdogs 5-3-1 ATS
AFC South
Divisional road teams 6-3 ATS
Non-divisional favorites 8-6 ATS
Non-divisional road underdogs 6-7 ATS
AFC West
Divisional home favorites 4-3 ATS
Non-divisional home favorites 6-8 ATS
Non-divisional road teams 8-12 ATS
— starting QB decisions for this week:
Washington will start Jacoby Brissett (18-30 as a starter) vs San Francisco
Giants will start Tyrod Taylor (27-28-1 as a starter) against the Rams
Broncos will start Jarrett Stidham (0-2 as a starter) against the Chargers.
— So Denver is benching Russell Wilson for the last two games; are they trying to get out of his contract?
Wilson is 35; he is currently signed through 2028, but he’s only guaranteed money through 2024. His entire 2025 salary ($37M) is guaranteed if he is still on the Broncos’ roster at the start of the next league year (March 17, 2024).
Put it this way; Denver’s options (trades) remain open, as long as Wilson stays healthy, which is probably why they’re sitting him out the last two games, since their playoff chances for this year are almost nil.
— Movie of the Day- One More Time (2015)- An aging New York City crooner plots his comeback. Christopher Walken plays the singer, Amber Heard is one of his daughters, Oliver Platt is his manager.
— current head coaches/managers who played in the big leagues:
19 of 30 major league managers played in the majors.
8 of 32 NFL head coaches played in the NFL
12 of 30 NBA head coaches played in the NBA.
— USC 42, Louisville 28
3rd-string QB Moss threw for 372 yards, 6 TD’s in his first college start.
First two drives, Trojans punted/missed FG.
On their next seven drives, they scored six touchdowns.
For the game, USC averaged 8.6 yards per play.
— Virginia Tech 41, Tulane 20
Hokies led 17-10 at halftime.
Tulane’s only first half touchdown was scored by their defense.
Tech was 7-14 on third down, Tulane 2-10 on a rainy day.
Hokies ran ball 50 times for 362 yards, 7.2 yards/carry.
— West Virginia 30, North Carolina 10
West Virginia threw a 75-yard TD pass on first play of the game.
West Virginia ran for 164 yards, were +2 in turnovers.
WVU outscored the Tar Heels 13-0 in second half.
Mountaineers won five of last six games, after a 4-3 start.
— Oklahoma State 31, Texas A&M 23
Cowboys led 24-6 at halftime, gaining 345 yards.
QB Bowman threw for 402 yards, two TD’s.
Oklahoma State was 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
Texas A&M finishes season 7-6.
— When Kansas beat UNLV 49-36 Tuesday night, they did something I’m not sure I’ve seen before; Jayhawks scored 49 points alright, averaging 16 yards/pass attempt, but they also had 18 penalties for 216 yards.
216 penalty yards in one game; not sure I’ve seen that before.
— Tennessee QB Joe Milton isn’t playing in the Vols’ bowl game: freshman Nico Iamaleava will get his first college start, against the staunch Iowa defense.
— NBA’s Atlanta Hawks are 7-30 against the spread this year, the worst ATS start by any NBA team in the last thirty years.
— Denver Nuggets F Aaron Gordon needed 21 stitches after his face and right (shooting) hand were cut while being bitten by a family dog on Christmas. Gordon is averaging 13.6 points and 6.9 rebounds this season.
— Hitting in the major leagues is harder than it used to be, in large part because hitters don’t see pitchers as many times as they used to.
Victor Martinez played 16 years in the major leagues, hit .295 with an .815 OPS; the most times he faced one pitcher? He faced James Shields 62 times in his career. There are three pitchers that he faced 50+ times, not a lot.
Joe Torre played 18 years in the major leagues, hit .297 with an .817 OPS; he faced 15 different pitchers a minimum of 75 times each. You see the same pitcher over and over, hitting is easier.
— How college football conferences are doing in the bowls:
AAC- 2-2 in bowls; all four games were decided by 18+ points.
ACC- 3-3 SU in bowls; underdogs covered four of the six games.
Big 14- 2-0 SU/ATS in first two bowls, winning 14-7/30-24.
Big X- 4-1 SU/ATS in first five bowls, scoring 32.2 ppg.
C-USA- 2-1 SU/ATS in first three bowls, with both wins in OT.
MAC- 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in first five bowls- they were underdog in all five.
Mountain West- 2-4 SU/ATS in first six bowls (over 4-2).
Pac-12- 2-2 SU/ATS in first four bowls (over 2-2).
SEC- Texas A&M’s 31-23 (-2.5) loss is only SEC bowl so far.
Sun Belt- They had 12 bowls, the most of any league:
Sun Belt teams went 1-7 SU/0-8 ATS in first eight bowls.
Sun Belt teams won/covered their last four bowls.
- Sep 10, 2018
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 30
Peach Bowl (@ Atlanta)
Ole Miss vs Penn State (-4.5)
Ole Miss (10-2)
— Ole Miss won seven of its last eight games, scoring 31.3 ppg
— Rebels were held to 10-17 points in their two losses.
— Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 6-7 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY).
— TY, Ole Miss is 2-1-1 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— Rebels are +9 in turnovers this season.
— Ole Miss hasn’t had a game TY with a negative TO ratio.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 131 starts back on offensive line; good offensive line
— junior QB has completed 65.2% of passes (20 TD’s, 5 INTs)
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 9-5 ATS in non-SEC games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— This year, SEC teams are 16-21 ATS out of conference.
— In his career, Kiffin is 2-4 SU in bowls.
— Ole Miss is 2-3 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
Penn State (10-2)
— Penn State scored 27+ points in all its wins.
— PSU lost 20-12 at Ohio State, 24-15 to Michigan.
— TY, Penn State is 1-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— last three years, Penn State is +35 in turnovers (+18 TY).
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has completed 61.3% of passes, with 23 TD’s, one INT.
— under Franklin, PSU is 51-34-3 ATS as a favorite.
— TY, Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS as a favorite.
— PSU is 10-4 ATS in last 14 non-conference games.
— Last three Penn State games stayed under the total.
— In his career, Franklin is 6-5 in bowls.
— This year, Big 14 teams are 15-19 ATS out of conference.
— Last six years, Penn State is 3-2 SU/ATS in bowls.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight Peach Bowls.
— SEC teams are 5-1 in last six Peach Bowl appearances.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Music City Bowl (@ Nashville)
Maryland vs Auburn (-7)
Maryland (7-5)
— Maryland QB Tagevailoa chose not to play in this game.
— Soph backup QB Edwards has thrown 10 passes this season.
— Terps lost five of last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
— Maryland is 6-0 when they score 31+ points, 1-5 when they don’t.
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 D-I starts back on offensive line; they added a I-AA OL star.
— This year, Terps are 3-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under Locksley, Maryland is 11-18 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY).
— in his career, Locksley is 22-34 ATS as an underdog.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Maryland games.
— This year, Big 14 non-conference underdogs are 2-5 ATS.
— This year, Big 14 teams are 15-19 ATS out of conference.
— In his career, Locksley is 2-0 in bowl games.
— Maryland won its last two bowls, 54-10/16-12.
Auburn (6-6)
— Auburn lost six of last nine games, after a 3-0 start.
— Auburn lost 31-10 at home to New Mexico State LW, a bad loss.
— Auburn allowed 15 or less points in wins, 27+ in losses.
— Last four years, Auburn is 23-25 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 25 games at Michigan State.
— In his career, Freeze is 46-39-1 ATS as a favorite (3-2 TY).
— Auburn is 17-12 ATS in last 29 games as a favorite.
— Tigers are 2-3 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— This year, SEC teams are 16-21 ATS out of conference.
— Auburn is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— In his career, Freeze is 6-1 SU in bowl games.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites are 5-4 ATS in last nine Music City Bowls.
— SEC teams lost four of last five appearances in this bowl.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Orange Bowl (@ Miami)
Georgia (-19) vs Florida State
Georgia (12-1)
— Georgia had won its last 29 games before losing SEC title game.
— Georgia is 4-7-1 against spread this season.
— Only 3 of their 12 wins were by less than 10 points.
— Dawgs are 3-6-1 ATS as a double digit favorite this year.
— Last 3 games, Auburn is minus-4 in turnovers.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB for Georgia; he is completing 72.4%, with 22 TD’s, 6 INTs.
— Georgia is 2-6 ATS in last eight non-conference games.
— four of Georgia’s last five games stayed under the total.
— Dawgs won their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS)
— SEC non-conference favorites are 14-17 ATS.
Florida State (13-0)
— FSU QB Travis is out, backup QB quit; not ideal.
— #3 QB Glenn is 10-25/90 passing this season.
— Four other prominent Seminoles opted out of this game.
— Seminoles allowed 12 ppg in their last four I-A games.
— Last four I-A games, FSU is +5 in turnovers.
— Seminoles have three wins by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 206 starts back on offensive line; ton of experience.
— Seminoles are 11-10-1 ATS in last 22 games as an underdog.
— in his career, Norvell is 12-13-2 ATS as an underdog.
— under Norvell, FSU is 7-5-1 ATS in non-league games.
— under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— This year, ACC non-conference underdogs are 7-10 ATS
— Seminoles went bowling LY for first time since 2019
— Does FSU have enough quality depth to compete here?
— These teams haven’t met since 2002.
— Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in last ten Orange Bowls.
— SEC teams won last five Orange Bowls (3-2 ATS)
— This year, ACC teams are 6-4 SU/7-3 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Arizona Bowl (@ Tucson)
Toledo vs Wyoming (-3.5)
Toledo (11-2)
— Toledo lost opener, MAC title game; went 11-0 in between
— Toledo covered four of its last six games.
— last five games, Toledo scored 31.6 ppg.
— four of their eight MAC wins were by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line— 4 starters are back
— junior QB has 19 starts, was 2nd-team all-MAC last year.
— Toledo is 2-2 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— under Candle, Toledo is 7-12 ATS as an underdog (0-1 TY).
— Rockets are 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Toledo is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls- they beat Liberty 21-19 LY.
— MAC underdogs are 16-14 ATS out of conference.
Wyoming (8-4)
— Coach Bohl (10 years @ Wyoming) is retiring after this game.
— Wyoming won its last two games by a combined 84-15.
— Cowboys gave up 31-34-32-34 points in their losses.
— Wyoming is 7-0 when they give up 26 or fewer points.
— Last nine games, Cowboys have a +10 turnover ratio.
— 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 52 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 12 career starts.
— Wyoming is 3-1 ATS as a favorite TY.
— Cowboys are 2-1-1 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— Mountain West non-conference favorites are 4-4 ATS this year.
— Wyoming won/covered three of its last four bowl games.
— These teams haven’t met since 2012.
— MW teams split last six Arizona Bowls; MAC teams won last two.
— Since 2016, favorites are 3-2 in this bowl.
— Since 2021, MW teams are 8-5 SU/8-3-2 ATS vs MAC opponents.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
December 30
Mississippi @ Penn State
Mississippi
Mississippi is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi's last 7 games
Penn State
Penn State is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Penn State is 15-3-1 ATS in its last 19 games
Auburn @ Maryland
Auburn
Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Auburn is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Maryland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 5 games
Maryland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Georgia @ Florida State
Georgia
Georgia is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia's last 5 games
Florida State
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 5 games
Toledo @ Wyoming
Toledo
Toledo is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toledo's last 7 games
Wyoming
Wyoming is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Wyoming is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 30
Peach Bowl (@ Atlanta)
Ole Miss vs Penn State (-4.5)
Ole Miss (10-2)
— Ole Miss won seven of its last eight games, scoring 31.3 ppg
— Rebels were held to 10-17 points in their two losses.
— Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 6-7 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY).
— TY, Ole Miss is 2-1-1 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— Rebels are +9 in turnovers this season.
— Ole Miss hasn’t had a game TY with a negative TO ratio.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 131 starts back on offensive line; good offensive line
— junior QB has completed 65.2% of passes (20 TD’s, 5 INTs)
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 9-5 ATS in non-SEC games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— This year, SEC teams are 16-21 ATS out of conference.
— In his career, Kiffin is 2-4 SU in bowls.
— Ole Miss is 2-3 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
Penn State (10-2)
— Penn State scored 27+ points in all its wins.
— PSU lost 20-12 at Ohio State, 24-15 to Michigan.
— TY, Penn State is 1-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— last three years, Penn State is +35 in turnovers (+18 TY).
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has completed 61.3% of passes, with 23 TD’s, one INT.
— under Franklin, PSU is 51-34-3 ATS as a favorite.
— TY, Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS as a favorite.
— PSU is 10-4 ATS in last 14 non-conference games.
— Last three Penn State games stayed under the total.
— In his career, Franklin is 6-5 in bowls.
— This year, Big 14 teams are 15-19 ATS out of conference.
— Last six years, Penn State is 3-2 SU/ATS in bowls.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight Peach Bowls.
— SEC teams are 5-1 in last six Peach Bowl appearances.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Music City Bowl (@ Nashville)
Maryland vs Auburn (-7)
Maryland (7-5)
— Maryland QB Tagevailoa chose not to play in this game.
— Soph backup QB Edwards has thrown 10 passes this season.
— Terps lost five of last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
— Maryland is 6-0 when they score 31+ points, 1-5 when they don’t.
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 D-I starts back on offensive line; they added a I-AA OL star.
— This year, Terps are 3-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under Locksley, Maryland is 11-18 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY).
— in his career, Locksley is 22-34 ATS as an underdog.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Maryland games.
— This year, Big 14 non-conference underdogs are 2-5 ATS.
— This year, Big 14 teams are 15-19 ATS out of conference.
— In his career, Locksley is 2-0 in bowl games.
— Maryland won its last two bowls, 54-10/16-12.
Auburn (6-6)
— Auburn lost six of last nine games, after a 3-0 start.
— Auburn lost 31-10 at home to New Mexico State LW, a bad loss.
— Auburn allowed 15 or less points in wins, 27+ in losses.
— Last four years, Auburn is 23-25 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 25 games at Michigan State.
— In his career, Freeze is 46-39-1 ATS as a favorite (3-2 TY).
— Auburn is 17-12 ATS in last 29 games as a favorite.
— Tigers are 2-3 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— This year, SEC teams are 16-21 ATS out of conference.
— Auburn is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— In his career, Freeze is 6-1 SU in bowl games.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites are 5-4 ATS in last nine Music City Bowls.
— SEC teams lost four of last five appearances in this bowl.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Orange Bowl (@ Miami)
Georgia (-19) vs Florida State
Georgia (12-1)
— Georgia had won its last 29 games before losing SEC title game.
— Georgia is 4-7-1 against spread this season.
— Only 3 of their 12 wins were by less than 10 points.
— Dawgs are 3-6-1 ATS as a double digit favorite this year.
— Last 3 games, Auburn is minus-4 in turnovers.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB for Georgia; he is completing 72.4%, with 22 TD’s, 6 INTs.
— Georgia is 2-6 ATS in last eight non-conference games.
— four of Georgia’s last five games stayed under the total.
— Dawgs won their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS)
— SEC non-conference favorites are 14-17 ATS.
Florida State (13-0)
— FSU QB Travis is out, backup QB quit; not ideal.
— #3 QB Glenn is 10-25/90 passing this season.
— Four other prominent Seminoles opted out of this game.
— Seminoles allowed 12 ppg in their last four I-A games.
— Last four I-A games, FSU is +5 in turnovers.
— Seminoles have three wins by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 206 starts back on offensive line; ton of experience.
— Seminoles are 11-10-1 ATS in last 22 games as an underdog.
— in his career, Norvell is 12-13-2 ATS as an underdog.
— under Norvell, FSU is 7-5-1 ATS in non-league games.
— under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— This year, ACC non-conference underdogs are 7-10 ATS
— Seminoles went bowling LY for first time since 2019
— Does FSU have enough quality depth to compete here?
— These teams haven’t met since 2002.
— Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in last ten Orange Bowls.
— SEC teams won last five Orange Bowls (3-2 ATS)
— This year, ACC teams are 6-4 SU/7-3 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Arizona Bowl (@ Tucson)
Toledo vs Wyoming (-3.5)
Toledo (11-2)
— Toledo lost opener, MAC title game; went 11-0 in between
— Toledo covered four of its last six games.
— last five games, Toledo scored 31.6 ppg.
— four of their eight MAC wins were by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line— 4 starters are back
— junior QB has 19 starts, was 2nd-team all-MAC last year.
— Toledo is 2-2 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— under Candle, Toledo is 7-12 ATS as an underdog (0-1 TY).
— Rockets are 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Toledo is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls- they beat Liberty 21-19 LY.
— MAC underdogs are 16-14 ATS out of conference.
Wyoming (8-4)
— Coach Bohl (10 years @ Wyoming) is retiring after this game.
— Wyoming won its last two games by a combined 84-15.
— Cowboys gave up 31-34-32-34 points in their losses.
— Wyoming is 7-0 when they give up 26 or fewer points.
— Last nine games, Cowboys have a +10 turnover ratio.
— 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 52 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 12 career starts.
— Wyoming is 3-1 ATS as a favorite TY.
— Cowboys are 2-1-1 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— Mountain West non-conference favorites are 4-4 ATS this year.
— Wyoming won/covered three of its last four bowl games.
— These teams haven’t met since 2012.
— MW teams split last six Arizona Bowls; MAC teams won last two.
— Since 2016, favorites are 3-2 in this bowl.
— Since 2021, MW teams are 8-5 SU/8-3-2 ATS vs MAC opponents.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
December 30
Mississippi @ Penn State
Mississippi
Mississippi is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi's last 7 games
Penn State
Penn State is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Penn State is 15-3-1 ATS in its last 19 games
Auburn @ Maryland
Auburn
Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Auburn is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Maryland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 5 games
Maryland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Georgia @ Florida State
Georgia
Georgia is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia's last 5 games
Florida State
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 5 games
Toledo @ Wyoming
Toledo
Toledo is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toledo's last 7 games
Wyoming
Wyoming is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Wyoming is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 28
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| RUTG at MIA | 02:15 PM | RUTG -2.5 U 41.5 | +500 +500 |
| NCST at KSU | 05:45 PM | KSU -3.0 O 47.5 | +500 +500 |
| ARIZ at OKLA | 09:15 PM | OKLA +2.0 O 59.5 | +500 +500 |
2023 BOWL BEST BETS !
12/28/2023.......................3 - 3......................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/27/2023.......................4 - 4......................50.00%..............- 2.00
12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0.................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00
TOTALS...........................24 - 23 - 1................51.06%................- 5.50
12/28/2023.......................3 - 3......................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/27/2023.......................4 - 4......................50.00%..............- 2.00
12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0.................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00
TOTALS...........................24 - 23 - 1................51.06%................- 5.50
Friday’s 6-pack:
Some college basketball teams getting highest %age of points on 3-pointers:
43.6%- St Joe’s
42.5%- Brigham Young
41.9%- Georgia Southern
41.5%- Oral Roberts
40.9%- Hofstra
40.8%- Chattanooga
Quote of the Day
“They know I’m good, they know how to play us. That’s what it is. But it’s not like they got a superstar on their defense.”
Bengals’ WR Ja’Marr Chase, talking about Kansas City’s secondary
Friday’s quiz
Who was the first kicking specialist inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame?
Thursday’s quiz
Weeb Ewbank coached the Jets when they won their only Super Bowl, 16-7 against the Colts in Super Bowl III.
Wednesday’s quiz
Other than Tom Brady, Warren Moon is the oldest QB with three consecutive 300+ yard passing games.
******************************************
Baltimore– won Super Bowl 11 years ago; since then, they’re 2-5 in playoff games, 0-2 at home.
Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in playoff games; Ravens scored 13 ppg in those games.
Buffalo– Buffalo lost four straight Super Bowls (1990-93)
from 1994-2019, Bills were 1-6 in playoff games.
Last three years, Bills are 4-3 in playoff games.
Cleveland (the original Browns are the Ravens now)
Since their rebirth in 1999, Browns are 1-2 in playoff games.
Browns’ one playoff win: 48-37 at Pittsburgh, in 2020.
Last time there was a playoff game in Cleveland? 1989.
Dallas– 28 years ago, Cowboys won their 5th Super Bowl.
Since then, Dallas is 5-12 in playoff games (3-3 in last six at home).
Detroit– are in playoffs this year, for first time since 2016.
In entire Super Bowl era, Lions are 1-12 in playoff games (only win, 1991)
Haven’t played a home playoff game since 1993.
Green Bay– won their last Super Bowl in 2010.
Since then, Packers are 7-9 in playoff games, with two OT losses.
Houston– haven’t made playoff since 2019.
In their history, Texans are 4-2 in home playoff games, 0-4 on road.
Indianapolis– haven’t made playoffs since 2020.
Since Peyton Manning last played for Colts in 2010, there 4-5 in playoff games,
Jacksonville– have an 8-8 record in playoff games, 4-1 at home.
1-4 vs New England in playoff games, 7-4 vs everyone else.
Kansas City– from 2019-22, they’re 10-2 in playoff games, winning two Super Bowls.
From 1994-2018, were 2-11 in playoff games.
LA Rams– under Sean McVay, Rams are 7-3 in playoff games.
Before McVay came to LA in 2017, Rams’ last playoff game was in 2004.
Miami– Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000 (0-4).
From 1970-84, Miami was 13-8 in playoffs; since 1985, they’re 6-13.
Minnesota– from 1969-76, Vikings went 0-4 in Super Bowls.
Since 1989, Minnesota is 9-16 in the playoffs, 2-5 since 2012.
New Orleans– won their only Super Bowl 14 years ago, beating Colts 31-17.
Since then, Saints are 4-7 in playoff games, losing last three at home.
New Orleans hasn’t made the playoffs since 2020.
Philadelphia– since 2017, Eagles are 6-4 in playoff games.
Andy Reid was 10-9 in playoff games for Eagles, from 1999-2012.
Pittsburgh– haven’t won a playoff game since 2016.
Lost last four playoff games, giving up 36-45-48-42 points.
San Francisco– 49ers haven’t won a Super Bowl since 1994.
Since 2012, 49ers are 10-5 in playoff games, 0-2 in Super Bowls.
Seattle– won Super Bowl in 2014, lost it the next season.
Since then, Seahawks are 3-6 in playoff games.
Tampa Bay– won two Super Bowls, in 2002/2020.
Other than those two years, Buccaneers are 4-11 in playoff games.
Arizona- since 2010, they’re 1-3 in playoff games.
in last 50 years, they’re 4-0 in home playoff games.
Atlanta- haven’t made playoffs since 2017
since 1998, they made playoffs 9 times, went 6-3 in first playoff game that year
Carolina- haven’t made playoffs since 2017
Lost Super Bowl eight years ago; since then, they’re 0-1 in playoff games.
Chicago- since 2011, Bears are 0-2 in playoff games.
haven’t won a road playoff game since 1999
3-4 in last seven home playoff games.
Cincinnati- from 1991-2020, Bengals were 0-7 in playoff games
Last two years, Bengals were 5-2 in playoff games (both losses 23-20 on road).
Denver- won Super Bowl in 2015, haven’t made the playoffs since.
Haven’t played a road playoff game since 2011.
Since 1997, they’re 9-3 in home playoff games.
Las Vegas- 21 years ago, they lost Super Bowl 48-21 to Jon Gruden’s Buccaneers.
in 21 years since then, Raiders are 0-2 in playoff games.
LA Chargers- haven’t played a home playoff game since 2009.
in Super Bowl era: 5-6 in home playoff games, 6-8 on road, 0-1 in Super Bowl
New England- Patriots went 30-11 in playoffs with Tom Brady at QB.
In nine years as a HC without Brady on his team, Bill Belichick is 1-2 in playoff games- the only win was against New England, when Belichick was coaching the Browns.
NJ Giants- won their 4th Super Bowl 12 years ago; since then, they’re 1-2 in playoff games.
Giants are 6-2 in their last eight road playoff games.
NJ Jets- haven’t been in the playoffs since 2010, longest current drought in NFL.
are 5-5 in road playoff games since their last home playoff game, in 2002.
Tennessee- lost their last three home playoff games.
have played in four overtime playoff games, going 2-2.
Titans are 4-8 in playoffs since they lost Super Bowl XXXIV to the Rams.
Washington- Commanders haven’t won a playoff game since 2005.
Washington won 3 Super Bowls with 3 different QB’s: Theismann, Williams, Rypien.
Some college basketball teams getting highest %age of points on 3-pointers:
43.6%- St Joe’s
42.5%- Brigham Young
41.9%- Georgia Southern
41.5%- Oral Roberts
40.9%- Hofstra
40.8%- Chattanooga
Quote of the Day
“They know I’m good, they know how to play us. That’s what it is. But it’s not like they got a superstar on their defense.”
Bengals’ WR Ja’Marr Chase, talking about Kansas City’s secondary
Friday’s quiz
Who was the first kicking specialist inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame?
Thursday’s quiz
Weeb Ewbank coached the Jets when they won their only Super Bowl, 16-7 against the Colts in Super Bowl III.
Wednesday’s quiz
Other than Tom Brady, Warren Moon is the oldest QB with three consecutive 300+ yard passing games.
******************************************
Friday’s Den: Playoff trends for NFL teams……..
Playoff trends for NFL teams……..Baltimore– won Super Bowl 11 years ago; since then, they’re 2-5 in playoff games, 0-2 at home.
Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in playoff games; Ravens scored 13 ppg in those games.
Buffalo– Buffalo lost four straight Super Bowls (1990-93)
from 1994-2019, Bills were 1-6 in playoff games.
Last three years, Bills are 4-3 in playoff games.
Cleveland (the original Browns are the Ravens now)
Since their rebirth in 1999, Browns are 1-2 in playoff games.
Browns’ one playoff win: 48-37 at Pittsburgh, in 2020.
Last time there was a playoff game in Cleveland? 1989.
Dallas– 28 years ago, Cowboys won their 5th Super Bowl.
Since then, Dallas is 5-12 in playoff games (3-3 in last six at home).
Detroit– are in playoffs this year, for first time since 2016.
In entire Super Bowl era, Lions are 1-12 in playoff games (only win, 1991)
Haven’t played a home playoff game since 1993.
Green Bay– won their last Super Bowl in 2010.
Since then, Packers are 7-9 in playoff games, with two OT losses.
Houston– haven’t made playoff since 2019.
In their history, Texans are 4-2 in home playoff games, 0-4 on road.
Indianapolis– haven’t made playoffs since 2020.
Since Peyton Manning last played for Colts in 2010, there 4-5 in playoff games,
Jacksonville– have an 8-8 record in playoff games, 4-1 at home.
1-4 vs New England in playoff games, 7-4 vs everyone else.
Kansas City– from 2019-22, they’re 10-2 in playoff games, winning two Super Bowls.
From 1994-2018, were 2-11 in playoff games.
LA Rams– under Sean McVay, Rams are 7-3 in playoff games.
Before McVay came to LA in 2017, Rams’ last playoff game was in 2004.
Miami– Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000 (0-4).
From 1970-84, Miami was 13-8 in playoffs; since 1985, they’re 6-13.
Minnesota– from 1969-76, Vikings went 0-4 in Super Bowls.
Since 1989, Minnesota is 9-16 in the playoffs, 2-5 since 2012.
New Orleans– won their only Super Bowl 14 years ago, beating Colts 31-17.
Since then, Saints are 4-7 in playoff games, losing last three at home.
New Orleans hasn’t made the playoffs since 2020.
Philadelphia– since 2017, Eagles are 6-4 in playoff games.
Andy Reid was 10-9 in playoff games for Eagles, from 1999-2012.
Pittsburgh– haven’t won a playoff game since 2016.
Lost last four playoff games, giving up 36-45-48-42 points.
San Francisco– 49ers haven’t won a Super Bowl since 1994.
Since 2012, 49ers are 10-5 in playoff games, 0-2 in Super Bowls.
Seattle– won Super Bowl in 2014, lost it the next season.
Since then, Seahawks are 3-6 in playoff games.
Tampa Bay– won two Super Bowls, in 2002/2020.
Other than those two years, Buccaneers are 4-11 in playoff games.
Arizona- since 2010, they’re 1-3 in playoff games.
in last 50 years, they’re 4-0 in home playoff games.
Atlanta- haven’t made playoffs since 2017
since 1998, they made playoffs 9 times, went 6-3 in first playoff game that year
Carolina- haven’t made playoffs since 2017
Lost Super Bowl eight years ago; since then, they’re 0-1 in playoff games.
Chicago- since 2011, Bears are 0-2 in playoff games.
haven’t won a road playoff game since 1999
3-4 in last seven home playoff games.
Cincinnati- from 1991-2020, Bengals were 0-7 in playoff games
Last two years, Bengals were 5-2 in playoff games (both losses 23-20 on road).
Denver- won Super Bowl in 2015, haven’t made the playoffs since.
Haven’t played a road playoff game since 2011.
Since 1997, they’re 9-3 in home playoff games.
Las Vegas- 21 years ago, they lost Super Bowl 48-21 to Jon Gruden’s Buccaneers.
in 21 years since then, Raiders are 0-2 in playoff games.
LA Chargers- haven’t played a home playoff game since 2009.
in Super Bowl era: 5-6 in home playoff games, 6-8 on road, 0-1 in Super Bowl
New England- Patriots went 30-11 in playoffs with Tom Brady at QB.
In nine years as a HC without Brady on his team, Bill Belichick is 1-2 in playoff games- the only win was against New England, when Belichick was coaching the Browns.
NJ Giants- won their 4th Super Bowl 12 years ago; since then, they’re 1-2 in playoff games.
Giants are 6-2 in their last eight road playoff games.
NJ Jets- haven’t been in the playoffs since 2010, longest current drought in NFL.
are 5-5 in road playoff games since their last home playoff game, in 2002.
Tennessee- lost their last three home playoff games.
have played in four overtime playoff games, going 2-2.
Titans are 4-8 in playoffs since they lost Super Bowl XXXIV to the Rams.
Washington- Commanders haven’t won a playoff game since 2005.
Washington won 3 Super Bowls with 3 different QB’s: Theismann, Williams, Rypien.
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 29
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLEM at UK | 12:00 PM | UK +3.5 U 44.0 | +500 +500 |
| ORST at ND | 02:00 PM | ND -5.5 O 40.5 | +500 +500 |
| MEM at ISU | 03:30 PM | MEM +10.5 O 57.5 | +500 +500 |
| MIZZ at OSU | 08:00 PM | MIZZ +4.0 U 50.0 | +500 +500 |
- Sep 10, 2018
- 15,323
- 11
- 38
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
January 1
ReliaQuest Bowl (@ Tampa)
Wisconsin vs LSU (-10)
Wisconsin (7-5)
— Wisconsin is 0-3 when they allow more than 21 points.
— Badgers are 6-1 when they allow 17 or fewer points.
— Wisconsin is 7-5; they were favored in 10 of 12 games.
— since 2017, Badgers are 2-4 ATS as an underdog.
— Wisconsin is 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 non-league games (0-2-1 TY)
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 97 starts back on offensive line.
— backup QB Locke has completed 50% of passes (5 TDs, 1 iNT)
— Locke is a transfer from Mississippi State.
— Badgers are 2-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— under is 7-3 in Badgers’ last ten games.
— Wisconsin’s 7-6 record LY was their worst since 2008.
— Wisconsin won/covered its last three bowls.
LSU (9-3)
— QB Daniels quit the team, won’t play in bowl.
— Backup QB Nussmeier is 17-33/197 passing TY
— Daniels was also the Tigers’ leading rusher (1,134 yards)
— LSU won six of last seven games, scoring 42+ points in wins.
— Tigers allowed 45-55-42 points in losses.
— LSU gained 500+ yards in nine of last 11 games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 102 starts back on offensive line.
— this year, under Kelly, LSU is 7-3 ATS as a favorite.
— under Kelly, LSU is 11-7 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career, Kelly is 81-72-5 ATS as a favorite.
— under Kelly, LSU is 6-2 ATS in non-SEC games.
— Over is 11-1 in LSU games this season.
— In his career, Kelly is 8-6 in bowl games.
— LSU is 4-1 SU/ATS in bowls the last five years.
— These teams haven’t met since 2016.
— Underdogs are 6-4 ATS in last 10 ReliaQuest Bowls
— Last 8 years, SEC is 6-2 vs Big 14 in this bowl.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Fiesta Bowl (@ Glendale, AZ)
Liberty vs Oregon (-16.5)
Liberty (13-0)
— Last five years, Liberty is 47-16 SU/38-25 ATS
— Flames are 13-0 SU/9-4 ATS TY.
— 11 of Flames’ 13 wins were by 10+ points.
— Liberty was double digit favorite in 8 of last 10 games.
— Flames are 16-5 ATS in last 21 games as an underdog.
— In his career, HC Chadwell is 16-8-1 ATS as an underdog.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 98 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started four games LY.
— Last eight games, Liberty ran the ball for 332.8 yards/game.
— Flames have a +9 turnover ratio.
— Six of their last seven games went over the total.
— New HC Chadwell went 39-22 coaching Coastal Carolina.
— Liberty is 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS in bowls, but this is a step up in competition
— AAC non-conference underdogs are 12-20 ATS
Oregon (11-2)
— Oregon has scored 31+ points in every game this season.
— Nine of their 11 wins were by 14+ points.
— Ducks’ only losses were 36-33/34-31, both vs Washington.
— Oregon threw ball for 367+ yards in four of last five games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 96 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB Nix QB has 60 career starts, 34 of them at Auburn.
— Last 5+ years, Ducks are 56-18 SU.
— under Lanning, Ducks are 15-6 ATS as a favorite.
— Oregon is 11-17-2 ATS in last 30 non-league games.
— Under is 8-4 in Oregon’s I-A games.
— Ducks are 3-2 in last five bowl games; all three wins were by one point.
— Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 15-7 ATS
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites are 5-3 ATS in last eight Fiesta Bowls.
— since 2014, Pac-12 teams are 0-3 SU/ATS in this bowl.
— since 2017, AAC teams are 9-1 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
Citrus Bowl (@ Orlando)
Iowa vs Tennessee (-6)
Iowa (10-3)
— Iowa has an excellent defense, a terrible offense.
— They fired the OC during the year, the coach’s son.
— Iowa won four of its last five games, giving up 11.9 ppg.
— Hawkeyes scored 0-10-0 points in their three losses.
— Iowa has four wins where they scored 15 or fewer points.
— Hawkeyes gained 291 or less TY in 11 of 13 games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 114 starts back on offensive line
— Iowa QB McNamara tore his ACL, is out for year.
— soph backup QB is completing 49.4% of passes (5 TD, 6 INTs)
— Iowa is 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog (2-2 TY).
— Iowa is 14-6 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
— Iowa is 5-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under is 8-0 in their last eight games.
— Iowa won four of its last five bowl games (5-0 ATS)
— Big 14 non-conference underdogs are 4-5 ATS.
Tennessee (8-4)
— QB Milton has quit; freshman QB Iamaleava gets first start here.
— Tennessee lost two of last three games, after a 7-2 start.
— Vols are 7-0 when they score 30+ points, 1-4 if they don’t.
— Vols are 1-4 when they run for less than 200 yards.
— Tennessee scored 16-20-7-10 points in its losses.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 93 starts back on offensive line.
— freshman QB is making his first start.
— under Heupel, Tennessee is 17-7 ATS as a favorite.
— under Heupel, Tennessee is 10-2 ATS in non-conference games.
— Vols are 2-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— four of their last six games went over the total.
— In his career, Heupel is 2-3 in bowl games.
— Vols are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five bowls.
— SEC non-conference favorites are 14-17 ATS.
— These teams haven’t met since 2014.
— Favorite covered six of last seven Citrus Bowls.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Rose Bowl
Alabama vs Michigan (-2)
Alabama (12-1)
— Alabama won its last 11 games (8-3 ATS).
— Crimson Tide’s only loss was 34-24 at home to Texas.
— Longhorns threw for 349 yards in that game.
— Alabama gave up 20+ points in its last seven I-A games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has completed 65.5% of passes (23 TDs, 6 INTs)
— since 2016, Alabama is 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
— In his college career, Saban is 51-31-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Crimson Tide is +6 in turnovers in its last five games.
— Alabama is 12-7 ATS in last 19 non-conference games.
— seven of their last nine games went over.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.
— SEC non-conference underdogs are 3-5 ATS
Michigan (13-0)
— Wolverines covered seven of their last nine games.
— their last three wins were by 9-7-6-26 points.
— Michigan is 2-0 ATS as a single digit favorite TY.
— Last four games, Michigan was held to 282.3 ypg.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 145 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB McCarthy completed 74.2% of passes (19 TD passes, 4 INT).
— Michigan is 8-15 ATS in last 23 non-conference games (0-3 TY).
— Michigan is 19-12-2 ATS in last 33 games as a favorite.
— seven of last nine Michigan games went over the total.
— Michigan is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls, giving up 40.3 ppg in last four
— Michigan is 2-0 in Big 14 title games (42-3/43-22- last two years)
— Big 14 home favorites are 12-14 ATS
— These teams haven’t met since 2019.
— underdogs covered six of last seven Rose Bowls.
— Alabama won Rose Bowl three years ago.
— Michigan is in Rose Bowl for first time in 17 years.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Sugar Bowl (@ New Orleans)
Washington vs Texas (-4)
Washington (13-0)
— Washington was 10-0 SU/4-5-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— Last six games, Huskies allowed 29.2 ppg.
— Last four games, Washington is +4 in turnovers.
— Huskies’ last four wins were by 7-2-3-3 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 36 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 43 starts; 30 here, 13 at Indiana.
— under DeBoer, Huskies are 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
— In his career, DeBoer is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Washington is 6-1 ATS in last seven non-league tilts.
— Last three Washington games stayed under the total.
— Last year was Washington’s first bowl since 2019.
— since 2016, Huskies are 2-3 SU in bowls.
— Pac-12 non-conference underdogs are 4-5 ATS.
Texas (12-1)
— Longhorns won their last seven games (4-3 ATS)
— Texas scored 26+ points in every game this year.
— Longhorns’ only loss: 34-30 (-4) vs Oklahoma.
— Texas is 6-6 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Texas gave up 300+ PY four of last seven games.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— starting QB Ewers is back in lineup
— In his career, Sarkisian is 38-29 ATS as a favorite.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 6-4 ATS in non-league games.
— over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.
— Big X non-conference favorites are 10-13 ATS
— Washington (+3) upset Texas 27-20 in Alamo Bowl last year.
— Favorites are 5-3 ATS in last eight Sugar Bowls.
— since 2013, Big X teams are 4-3 SU in Sugar Bowl.
— since 2018, Big X teams are 14-8 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
January 1
Wisconsin @ Louisiana State
Wisconsin
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 5 games
Louisiana State
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Louisiana State's last 16 games
Louisiana State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Liberty @ Oregon
Liberty
Liberty is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Liberty's last 7 games
Oregon
Oregon is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Oregon is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Iowa @ Tennessee
Iowa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Iowa's last 5 games
Iowa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee
Tennessee is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Alabama @ Michigan
Alabama
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Texas @ Washington
Texas
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
January 1
ReliaQuest Bowl (@ Tampa)
Wisconsin vs LSU (-10)
Wisconsin (7-5)
— Wisconsin is 0-3 when they allow more than 21 points.
— Badgers are 6-1 when they allow 17 or fewer points.
— Wisconsin is 7-5; they were favored in 10 of 12 games.
— since 2017, Badgers are 2-4 ATS as an underdog.
— Wisconsin is 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 non-league games (0-2-1 TY)
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 97 starts back on offensive line.
— backup QB Locke has completed 50% of passes (5 TDs, 1 iNT)
— Locke is a transfer from Mississippi State.
— Badgers are 2-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— under is 7-3 in Badgers’ last ten games.
— Wisconsin’s 7-6 record LY was their worst since 2008.
— Wisconsin won/covered its last three bowls.
LSU (9-3)
— QB Daniels quit the team, won’t play in bowl.
— Backup QB Nussmeier is 17-33/197 passing TY
— Daniels was also the Tigers’ leading rusher (1,134 yards)
— LSU won six of last seven games, scoring 42+ points in wins.
— Tigers allowed 45-55-42 points in losses.
— LSU gained 500+ yards in nine of last 11 games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 102 starts back on offensive line.
— this year, under Kelly, LSU is 7-3 ATS as a favorite.
— under Kelly, LSU is 11-7 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career, Kelly is 81-72-5 ATS as a favorite.
— under Kelly, LSU is 6-2 ATS in non-SEC games.
— Over is 11-1 in LSU games this season.
— In his career, Kelly is 8-6 in bowl games.
— LSU is 4-1 SU/ATS in bowls the last five years.
— These teams haven’t met since 2016.
— Underdogs are 6-4 ATS in last 10 ReliaQuest Bowls
— Last 8 years, SEC is 6-2 vs Big 14 in this bowl.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Fiesta Bowl (@ Glendale, AZ)
Liberty vs Oregon (-16.5)
Liberty (13-0)
— Last five years, Liberty is 47-16 SU/38-25 ATS
— Flames are 13-0 SU/9-4 ATS TY.
— 11 of Flames’ 13 wins were by 10+ points.
— Liberty was double digit favorite in 8 of last 10 games.
— Flames are 16-5 ATS in last 21 games as an underdog.
— In his career, HC Chadwell is 16-8-1 ATS as an underdog.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 98 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started four games LY.
— Last eight games, Liberty ran the ball for 332.8 yards/game.
— Flames have a +9 turnover ratio.
— Six of their last seven games went over the total.
— New HC Chadwell went 39-22 coaching Coastal Carolina.
— Liberty is 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS in bowls, but this is a step up in competition
— AAC non-conference underdogs are 12-20 ATS
Oregon (11-2)
— Oregon has scored 31+ points in every game this season.
— Nine of their 11 wins were by 14+ points.
— Ducks’ only losses were 36-33/34-31, both vs Washington.
— Oregon threw ball for 367+ yards in four of last five games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 96 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB Nix QB has 60 career starts, 34 of them at Auburn.
— Last 5+ years, Ducks are 56-18 SU.
— under Lanning, Ducks are 15-6 ATS as a favorite.
— Oregon is 11-17-2 ATS in last 30 non-league games.
— Under is 8-4 in Oregon’s I-A games.
— Ducks are 3-2 in last five bowl games; all three wins were by one point.
— Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 15-7 ATS
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites are 5-3 ATS in last eight Fiesta Bowls.
— since 2014, Pac-12 teams are 0-3 SU/ATS in this bowl.
— since 2017, AAC teams are 9-1 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
Citrus Bowl (@ Orlando)
Iowa vs Tennessee (-6)
Iowa (10-3)
— Iowa has an excellent defense, a terrible offense.
— They fired the OC during the year, the coach’s son.
— Iowa won four of its last five games, giving up 11.9 ppg.
— Hawkeyes scored 0-10-0 points in their three losses.
— Iowa has four wins where they scored 15 or fewer points.
— Hawkeyes gained 291 or less TY in 11 of 13 games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 114 starts back on offensive line
— Iowa QB McNamara tore his ACL, is out for year.
— soph backup QB is completing 49.4% of passes (5 TD, 6 INTs)
— Iowa is 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog (2-2 TY).
— Iowa is 14-6 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
— Iowa is 5-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under is 8-0 in their last eight games.
— Iowa won four of its last five bowl games (5-0 ATS)
— Big 14 non-conference underdogs are 4-5 ATS.
Tennessee (8-4)
— QB Milton has quit; freshman QB Iamaleava gets first start here.
— Tennessee lost two of last three games, after a 7-2 start.
— Vols are 7-0 when they score 30+ points, 1-4 if they don’t.
— Vols are 1-4 when they run for less than 200 yards.
— Tennessee scored 16-20-7-10 points in its losses.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 93 starts back on offensive line.
— freshman QB is making his first start.
— under Heupel, Tennessee is 17-7 ATS as a favorite.
— under Heupel, Tennessee is 10-2 ATS in non-conference games.
— Vols are 2-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— four of their last six games went over the total.
— In his career, Heupel is 2-3 in bowl games.
— Vols are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five bowls.
— SEC non-conference favorites are 14-17 ATS.
— These teams haven’t met since 2014.
— Favorite covered six of last seven Citrus Bowls.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Rose Bowl
Alabama vs Michigan (-2)
Alabama (12-1)
— Alabama won its last 11 games (8-3 ATS).
— Crimson Tide’s only loss was 34-24 at home to Texas.
— Longhorns threw for 349 yards in that game.
— Alabama gave up 20+ points in its last seven I-A games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has completed 65.5% of passes (23 TDs, 6 INTs)
— since 2016, Alabama is 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
— In his college career, Saban is 51-31-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Crimson Tide is +6 in turnovers in its last five games.
— Alabama is 12-7 ATS in last 19 non-conference games.
— seven of their last nine games went over.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.
— SEC non-conference underdogs are 3-5 ATS
Michigan (13-0)
— Wolverines covered seven of their last nine games.
— their last three wins were by 9-7-6-26 points.
— Michigan is 2-0 ATS as a single digit favorite TY.
— Last four games, Michigan was held to 282.3 ypg.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 145 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB McCarthy completed 74.2% of passes (19 TD passes, 4 INT).
— Michigan is 8-15 ATS in last 23 non-conference games (0-3 TY).
— Michigan is 19-12-2 ATS in last 33 games as a favorite.
— seven of last nine Michigan games went over the total.
— Michigan is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls, giving up 40.3 ppg in last four
— Michigan is 2-0 in Big 14 title games (42-3/43-22- last two years)
— Big 14 home favorites are 12-14 ATS
— These teams haven’t met since 2019.
— underdogs covered six of last seven Rose Bowls.
— Alabama won Rose Bowl three years ago.
— Michigan is in Rose Bowl for first time in 17 years.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Sugar Bowl (@ New Orleans)
Washington vs Texas (-4)
Washington (13-0)
— Washington was 10-0 SU/4-5-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— Last six games, Huskies allowed 29.2 ppg.
— Last four games, Washington is +4 in turnovers.
— Huskies’ last four wins were by 7-2-3-3 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 36 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 43 starts; 30 here, 13 at Indiana.
— under DeBoer, Huskies are 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
— In his career, DeBoer is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Washington is 6-1 ATS in last seven non-league tilts.
— Last three Washington games stayed under the total.
— Last year was Washington’s first bowl since 2019.
— since 2016, Huskies are 2-3 SU in bowls.
— Pac-12 non-conference underdogs are 4-5 ATS.
Texas (12-1)
— Longhorns won their last seven games (4-3 ATS)
— Texas scored 26+ points in every game this year.
— Longhorns’ only loss: 34-30 (-4) vs Oklahoma.
— Texas is 6-6 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Texas gave up 300+ PY four of last seven games.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— starting QB Ewers is back in lineup
— In his career, Sarkisian is 38-29 ATS as a favorite.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 6-4 ATS in non-league games.
— over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.
— Big X non-conference favorites are 10-13 ATS
— Washington (+3) upset Texas 27-20 in Alamo Bowl last year.
— Favorites are 5-3 ATS in last eight Sugar Bowls.
— since 2013, Big X teams are 4-3 SU in Sugar Bowl.
— since 2018, Big X teams are 14-8 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
January 1
Wisconsin @ Louisiana State
Wisconsin
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 5 games
Louisiana State
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Louisiana State's last 16 games
Louisiana State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Liberty @ Oregon
Liberty
Liberty is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Liberty's last 7 games
Oregon
Oregon is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Oregon is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Iowa @ Tennessee
Iowa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Iowa's last 5 games
Iowa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee
Tennessee is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Alabama @ Michigan
Alabama
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Texas @ Washington
Texas
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/29/2023 | 7-1-0 | 87.50% | +2950 | Detail |
| 12/28/2023 | 3-3-0 | 50.00% | -150 | Detail |
| 12/27/2023 | 4-4-0 | 50.00% | -200 | Detail |
| 12/26/2023 | 3-3-0 | 50.00% | -150 | Detail |
| 12/23/2023 | 6-8-0 | 42.86% | -1400 | Detail |
| 12/22/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 12/21/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 12/19/2023 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 12/16/2023 | 5-6-1 | 45.83% | -800 | Detail |
2023 BOWL BEST BETS !
12/29/2023.......................7 - 1.......................87.50%.............+ 29.50
12/28/2023.......................3 - 3......................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/27/2023.......................4 - 4......................50.00%..............- 2.00
12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0.................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00
TOTALS...........................31 - 24 - 1................56.36%................+ 24.00
12/29/2023.......................7 - 1.......................87.50%.............+ 29.50
12/28/2023.......................3 - 3......................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/27/2023.......................4 - 4......................50.00%..............- 2.00
12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0.................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00
TOTALS...........................31 - 24 - 1................56.36%................+ 24.00
Saturday’s 6-pack:
— McNeese State 87, Michigan 76- Southland Conference Cowboys are now 11-2.
— San Diego State 84, Gonzaga 74- Impressive road win for the Aztecs.
— Magic 117, Knicks 108- Much-improved Orlando is 19-12 this year.
— Kings 117, Hawks 110- Sacramento outscored Atlanta 31-19 in 4th quarter.
— Bucks 119, Cavaliers 111- Cleveland shot 6-43 on the arc.
— 76ers 131, Rockets 127- Philly outscored Houston 41-30 in 4th quarter.
Quote of the Day
“They definitely told me I was going to be benched and all that. That whole bye week I didn’t know what was going to be the case. I was going to be ready to play, I wanted to go to Buffalo and beat Buffalo [Nov. 13]. … I wasn’t going to remove the injury guarantee, this game is such a physical game, I’ve played 12 years and all that.”
Broncos’ QB Russell Wilson, who might be an ex-Bronco fairly soon
Saturday’s quiz
Which college football team won the first three Fiesta Bowls (1971-73)?
Friday’s quiz
Jan Stenerud was the first kicking specialist inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Thursday’s quiz
Weeb Ewbank coached the Jets when they won their only Super Bowl, 16-7 against the Colts in Super Bowl III.
******************************
Browns’ first two drives were both 7 plays, 75 yards and a TD.
Cleveland led 34-17 at halftime.
Flacco threw for 309 yards and three more TD’s.
Cleveland won/covered its last four games, winning by 4-3-14-17 points.
Browns averaged 10 yards per pass attempt.
Each team scored on a pick-6 in first half.
Under Saleh, Jets are 5-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
This season, Jets are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Cleveland’s win clinches that they’ll finish ahead of the Steelers this season, the first time they’ve done that since 1989. Browns also clinched a playoff spot Thursday, the third time they’ve made the playoffs since re-booting in 1999.
The fact that Cleveland’s season has been saved by QB Joe Flacco coming out of nowhere is one of the NFL’s best stories this season. Flacco has thrown for 1,616 yards and 13 TD’s and will lead the Browns into the playoffs. Pretty unlikely.
— When the Saints play at Tampa Bay Sunday, it’ll be their first game outdoors since Week 5 at New England. New Orleans is 2-1 outdoors this season.
— Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud is going to start Sunday against Tennessee; Stroud missed the last two games with concussion problems.
Vikings are switching QB’s again; rookie Jaren Hall will get his second start when Minnesota hosts Green Bay Sunday night. Hall started a game in Atlanta in Week 9, but got KO’d in the first quarter with a concussion.
Jaguars will start backup CJ Beathard at QB this week; Trevor Lawrence has several injuries, so Jacksonville is sitting him out. Beathard is 2-10 as an NFL starter; his last start was in 2020.
— ESPN’s play-by-play guy on the Pop Tarts Bowl Thursday admitted on air that he had never had a Pop Tart in his life, so he had his first one on camera- got to keep the sponsors happy.
I’m oblivious about certain things, having forgotten that Pop Tarts can be toasted; I’ve had more than my share of Pop Tarts, but never had one toasted.
— OF Kevin Kiermaier re-upped with the Toronto Blue Jays, getting $10.5M for one year; he hit .265 last year, with a .741 OPS, his best OPS since 2017. His biggest strength is his defense.
— P Lucas Giolito signed on with the Red Sox, for two years, $38.5M; last year, he was 8-15, 4.88 in 33 starts for three different teams, but he was 2-9, 6.96 in 12 starts after the White Sox traded him.
In 2021-22, Giolito was 22-18, 4.18 in 62 starts for Chicago.
— Word of the Day: Analytics- Information resulting from the systematic analysis of data or statistics.
— Boston College 23, SMU 14
Hometown Eagles outscored SMU 13-0 in second half.
Boston College blocked a punt and a field goal.
Eagles ran the ball 41 times for 262 yards.
— Rutgers 31, Miami 24
Rutgers took lead for good with a blocked punt TD in 3rd quarter.
I’m sure the boosters at Miami will be thrilled with their 7-6 season.
Hurricanes have now lost five now games in a row.
— Kansas State 28, NC State 19
Freshman QB Johnson threw for 178 yards, two TD’s.
RB Giddens ran ball 28 times for 152 yards and a TD.
Favorites covered Pop Tarts Bowl seven of last eight years.
— Arizona 38, Oklahoma 24
Oklahoma turned ball over six times on 15 drives.
Arizona’s first four drives: 28 plays, 182 yards, 13 points.
Arizona’s freshman QB Fifita threw for 354 yards, two TD’s.
— Clemson 38, Kentucky 35
Clemson drove 63 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:17 left.
Kentucky led 21-10 after the third quarter.
Clemson won its last five games, after a 4-4 start.
— Notre Dame 40, Oregon State 8
Neither starting QB played in this game.
Notre Dame outgained the Beavers, 476-197
Notre Dame was 9-14 on third down, Oregon State 1-9
— Memphis 36, Iowa State 26
Memphis had TD plays of 51-70-11 yards in first quarter, led 19-0.
Memphis QB Henigan threw for 364 yards, four TD’s.
Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in last eight Liberty Bowls.
— Missouri 14, Ohio State 3
Buckeyes led 3-0 at halftime.
Mizzou outgained the Buckeyes, 331-203.
Missouri’s two TD drives were 95, 91 yards.
— Celtics 128, Pistons 122, OT
Detroit led by 19 at the half; game was tied after three quarters.
Pistons have now lost 28 games in a row.
Detroit starters were a combined +9, their subs minus-39.
— McNeese State 87, Michigan 76- Southland Conference Cowboys are now 11-2.
— San Diego State 84, Gonzaga 74- Impressive road win for the Aztecs.
— Magic 117, Knicks 108- Much-improved Orlando is 19-12 this year.
— Kings 117, Hawks 110- Sacramento outscored Atlanta 31-19 in 4th quarter.
— Bucks 119, Cavaliers 111- Cleveland shot 6-43 on the arc.
— 76ers 131, Rockets 127- Philly outscored Houston 41-30 in 4th quarter.
Quote of the Day
“They definitely told me I was going to be benched and all that. That whole bye week I didn’t know what was going to be the case. I was going to be ready to play, I wanted to go to Buffalo and beat Buffalo [Nov. 13]. … I wasn’t going to remove the injury guarantee, this game is such a physical game, I’ve played 12 years and all that.”
Broncos’ QB Russell Wilson, who might be an ex-Bronco fairly soon
Saturday’s quiz
Which college football team won the first three Fiesta Bowls (1971-73)?
Friday’s quiz
Jan Stenerud was the first kicking specialist inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Thursday’s quiz
Weeb Ewbank coached the Jets when they won their only Super Bowl, 16-7 against the Colts in Super Bowl III.
******************************
Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy couple of days
— Browns 37, Jets 20Browns’ first two drives were both 7 plays, 75 yards and a TD.
Cleveland led 34-17 at halftime.
Flacco threw for 309 yards and three more TD’s.
Cleveland won/covered its last four games, winning by 4-3-14-17 points.
Browns averaged 10 yards per pass attempt.
Each team scored on a pick-6 in first half.
Under Saleh, Jets are 5-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
This season, Jets are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Cleveland’s win clinches that they’ll finish ahead of the Steelers this season, the first time they’ve done that since 1989. Browns also clinched a playoff spot Thursday, the third time they’ve made the playoffs since re-booting in 1999.
The fact that Cleveland’s season has been saved by QB Joe Flacco coming out of nowhere is one of the NFL’s best stories this season. Flacco has thrown for 1,616 yards and 13 TD’s and will lead the Browns into the playoffs. Pretty unlikely.
— When the Saints play at Tampa Bay Sunday, it’ll be their first game outdoors since Week 5 at New England. New Orleans is 2-1 outdoors this season.
— Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud is going to start Sunday against Tennessee; Stroud missed the last two games with concussion problems.
Vikings are switching QB’s again; rookie Jaren Hall will get his second start when Minnesota hosts Green Bay Sunday night. Hall started a game in Atlanta in Week 9, but got KO’d in the first quarter with a concussion.
Jaguars will start backup CJ Beathard at QB this week; Trevor Lawrence has several injuries, so Jacksonville is sitting him out. Beathard is 2-10 as an NFL starter; his last start was in 2020.
— ESPN’s play-by-play guy on the Pop Tarts Bowl Thursday admitted on air that he had never had a Pop Tart in his life, so he had his first one on camera- got to keep the sponsors happy.
I’m oblivious about certain things, having forgotten that Pop Tarts can be toasted; I’ve had more than my share of Pop Tarts, but never had one toasted.
— OF Kevin Kiermaier re-upped with the Toronto Blue Jays, getting $10.5M for one year; he hit .265 last year, with a .741 OPS, his best OPS since 2017. His biggest strength is his defense.
— P Lucas Giolito signed on with the Red Sox, for two years, $38.5M; last year, he was 8-15, 4.88 in 33 starts for three different teams, but he was 2-9, 6.96 in 12 starts after the White Sox traded him.
In 2021-22, Giolito was 22-18, 4.18 in 62 starts for Chicago.
— Word of the Day: Analytics- Information resulting from the systematic analysis of data or statistics.
— Boston College 23, SMU 14
Hometown Eagles outscored SMU 13-0 in second half.
Boston College blocked a punt and a field goal.
Eagles ran the ball 41 times for 262 yards.
— Rutgers 31, Miami 24
Rutgers took lead for good with a blocked punt TD in 3rd quarter.
I’m sure the boosters at Miami will be thrilled with their 7-6 season.
Hurricanes have now lost five now games in a row.
— Kansas State 28, NC State 19
Freshman QB Johnson threw for 178 yards, two TD’s.
RB Giddens ran ball 28 times for 152 yards and a TD.
Favorites covered Pop Tarts Bowl seven of last eight years.
— Arizona 38, Oklahoma 24
Oklahoma turned ball over six times on 15 drives.
Arizona’s first four drives: 28 plays, 182 yards, 13 points.
Arizona’s freshman QB Fifita threw for 354 yards, two TD’s.
— Clemson 38, Kentucky 35
Clemson drove 63 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:17 left.
Kentucky led 21-10 after the third quarter.
Clemson won its last five games, after a 4-4 start.
— Notre Dame 40, Oregon State 8
Neither starting QB played in this game.
Notre Dame outgained the Beavers, 476-197
Notre Dame was 9-14 on third down, Oregon State 1-9
— Memphis 36, Iowa State 26
Memphis had TD plays of 51-70-11 yards in first quarter, led 19-0.
Memphis QB Henigan threw for 364 yards, four TD’s.
Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in last eight Liberty Bowls.
— Missouri 14, Ohio State 3
Buckeyes led 3-0 at halftime.
Mizzou outgained the Buckeyes, 331-203.
Missouri’s two TD drives were 95, 91 yards.
— Celtics 128, Pistons 122, OT
Detroit led by 19 at the half; game was tied after three quarters.
Pistons have now lost 28 games in a row.
Detroit starters were a combined +9, their subs minus-39.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 30
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| MISS at PSU | 12:00 PM | PSU -6.0 U 52.5 | +500 +500 |
| AUB at MD | 02:00 PM | AUB -4.5 U 48.0 | +500 +500 |
| UGA at FSU | 04:00 PM | FSU +21.0 O 46.0 | +500 +500 |
| TOL at WYO | 04:30 PM | WYO -4.0 O 44.5 | +500 +500 |
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/30/2023 | 2-6-0 | 25.00% | -2300 | Detail |
| 12/29/2023 | 7-1-0 | 87.50% | +2950 | Detail |
| 12/28/2023 | 3-3-0 | 50.00% | -150 | Detail |
| 12/27/2023 | 4-4-0 | 50.00% | -200 | Detail |
| 12/26/2023 | 3-3-0 | 50.00% | -150 | Detail |
| 12/23/2023 | 6-8-0 | 42.86% | -1400 | Detail |
| 12/22/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 12/21/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 12/19/2023 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 12/16/2023 | 5-6-1 | 45.83% | -800 | Detail |
2023 BOWL BEST BETS !
12/30/2023.......................2 - 6.......................25.00%.............- 23.00
12/29/2023.......................7 - 1.......................87.50%.............+ 29.50
12/28/2023.......................3 - 3......................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/27/2023.......................4 - 4......................50.00%..............- 2.00
12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0.................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00
TOTALS...........................33 - 30 - 1................52.38%................+ 1.00
12/30/2023.......................2 - 6.......................25.00%.............- 23.00
12/29/2023.......................7 - 1.......................87.50%.............+ 29.50
12/28/2023.......................3 - 3......................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/27/2023.......................4 - 4......................50.00%..............- 2.00
12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0.................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00
TOTALS...........................33 - 30 - 1................52.38%................+ 1.00