First and Ten

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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Illinois(+7) over Nebraska (1*)
- - I expect new HC Bielema will have his somewhat rebuilt but underachieving charges amped from start to finish, and whatever strides are being made by HC Frost at Nebraska, building quality depth is not one of them coming into this steamy 60 minute opener.

UCLA(-17') over Hawaii (1*)
- - I really liked the way I saw UCLA play in their 3-4 campaign last year, of course absent a clutch defense in the best tradition of Pac 12 football, and my cash early in 2021 is with progress under HC Chip Kelly until I'm shown otherwise.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 2-0 (+2.00*)

Penn State(+5') over Wisconsin (1*)
- - Every way I slice this game says go with the live dog.

Rutgers(-14') over Temple (1*)
- - Rutgers should be jacked for an inferior opponent, and that should be enough.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Iowa(-3)(-125) over Indiana (1*)
- - Iowa has all the pieces to embrace their Field of Dreams and seize first place in the West for the next month, and get to liking how it feels.

Northern Iowa(+29) over Iowa State (1*)
- - I am not expecting a steamrolling.

Miami(+19') over Alabama (1*)
- - Week #1 on a neutral field is like the best of opportunities for a Miami program about which I have learned to be skeptical, and then some.

Cincinnati(-22') over Miami (Ohio) (1*)
- - A mismatch for sure. Cincy scores in bunches playing complementary football, and wins games when they play lerss than their best playing complementary football . . . I?m not even thinking this is a great spot or great value, but the Bearcats were my darlings from Week #1 on, all last year, and they deserve to carry my cash today.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Illinois(-4') over UTSA (1*)
- - Best to expect Illinois to face more adversity against a capable UTSA squad than they did against the poorly functioning Cornhuskers, and can?t be thrilled that Sitikowski is likely to start for Illinois at QB after a week of knowing it would be on his shoulders. But I don?t think Bielema?s hungry assemblage of decent veteran talent has been stacking days this fall or this week feeling too full of themselves after the win they expected to claim against Nebraska, and I think value lies with Bielema pushing the right buttons here.

Georgia(+3)(-125) over Clemson (1*)
- - Big games like this must garner a play from me about 50% to 75% of the time, regardless of any ANGLES or INFORMATION or perceived value. And I have a none too good record of wins of probably 42% to 51% in these spots when I'm not possessed of some strong sentiment. I'm just watching this game with an idea that Georgia should be plum mad dog mean about trying to secure a huge early season win.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
LSU(-1') over UCLA (1*)
- - I expect UCLA to be a force in the Pac 12 all year and they are a dangerous team for most anyone to play this week in prime time at the Rose Bowl, but I just don?t think they have established a defense that is likely to prevail against an elite SEC opponent . . . To wager on this game I have to have an opinion on the impact on LSU of the distractions caused by Hurricane Ida, and I think it lacked the tragic elements that would deeply touch multiple players and staff, so it seems fairly likely to build cohesion for this week rather than be an absorbing distraction. . . . But at the start of the day, I thought the best two games on the board would be Penn State vs. Wisconsin and LSU vs. UCLA, and as of 7:30 p.m. tonight I think I might be right.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
It has definitely felt like I've been playing catch up all day after I didn't get a bet down on Virginia(-11') over Illinois because it started an hour early.

Utah(-7) over BYU (1*)
- -

Stanford(+17') over USC (1*)
- -

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Michigan State(+7)(-115) over Miami (1*)
- - These teams have definitely revealed two identities, surprising or otherwise, early on, and I am sticking with the narrative at least in so far as Michigan State is wanting to come in as a live dog.

Notre Dame(-7') over Purdue (1*)
- - I have had my eye on Purdue under HC Jeff Brohm turning a corner for some time, but except for shocking Iowa twice, it has not happened, and after giving this year?s team a close look, my decision was to wean myself from that tit. I like the chances of Notre Dame making more of a statement in this spot than the visitor.

Cincinnati(-3)(-130) over Indiana (1*)
- - Simply put, the complementary football played by Cincinnati every time they take the field is impressive, notwithstanding a few too many turnovers and red zone struggles. While Indiana should step up with whatever they have in this game, I will let Cincinnati carry my cash for the umpteenth time.

Nebraska(+22') over Oklahoma (1*)
- - Nebraska has issues for sure, but whatever positives they possess seem reasonably likely to be momentarily in evidence for 60 minutes in this game.

Michigan(-27) over Northern Illinois (1*)
- - On my honor, I knew, I knew, I knew that Michigan was the right play against Washington last week, and I made an egregious error in not figuring it out correctly, but egregious errors are part of the landscape on plays and passes over the course of 200+ wagers and 700+ passes during the course of an NCAA and NFL wagering season. Let?s see if I compound last week?s mistake with wishful thinking today.

West Virginia(-2) over VirginiaTech (1*)
- - West Virginia looks poised to me to play their part in what could develop into an epic clash, and the situational chestnut of an unranked favorite is enough for me to pull the trigger.

Western Michigan(+14') over Pittsburgh (1*)
- -

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
USC(-7)(-115) over Washington State (1*)
- - As I saw noted elsewhere, without distractions regarding popular HC Helton, and going on the road and away from the noise, I see a top shelf effort against what must be an outmanned oponent with their whole conference season hanging in the balance. This is the only play in this window of games that I like as much as 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 of the games in the early window.

Iowa(-22') over Kent State (1*)
- - I could pass on the game, but I lack any reasons to jump on the other side.

Kent State/Iowa(Un55') (1*)
- - I like this a tad bit more than the side, for the same reasons, but having two units invested is the foolishness.

Northwestern(-2') over Duke (1*)
- - Northwestern is gritty and then some when games like this can define the direction of a season.

Alabama(Ov37') vs. Florida (1*)
- -

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
From 10-0 to 10-2. Trouble brewing . . .

Penn State(-4') over Auburn (1*)
- -

UCLA(-11) over Fresno State (1*)
- -

UNLV(+32) over Iowa State (1*)
- -

Stanford(-13) over Vanderbilt (1*)
- -

Arizona State(-3)(-115) over BYU (1*)
- - I will let Herm Edwards?s boys carry my cash against a not deep BYU team coming off a super physical Super Bowl.

Virginia(+7') over North Carolina (1*)
- - NC has been overrated to some degree for 3 years, but even more certain is Virginia delivers clunkers in road spots like this. One play too many could factor in spoiling the day.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 27-18 (+7.15*)
NFL YTD: 5-10 (-5.95*)

Missouri(-1) over Boston College (1*)
- -

Notre Dame(+6) over Wisconsin (1*)
- - I was anticipating a play on Wisconsin(-3) or so before Notre Dame played Purdue last week. No chance I am playing Wisconsin(-6).

Northwestern(-14) over Ohio (1*)
- -

LSU(-1') over Mississippi State (1*)
- -

Army(-7') over Miami (Ohio)
- -

Utah(-15) over Washington State (1*)
- - Utah is staking their claim as the biggest disappointment of the season, but has a coach that will carry my cash in this desperate home spot.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Kansas State(+6) over Oklahoma State (1*)
- - My strongest early play was Missouri and it looks like I'm going to be on the wrong side of a great game. Hope my strongest play in the late afternoon window has me on the right side of a great game.

Iowa(-23') over Colorado State (1*)
- - The only thing about the play this week that I feel strongly about is the team on a 9 game winning streak that is carrying my cash.

Rutgers(+20) over Michigan (1*)
- -

Michigan State(-4) over Nebraska (1*)
- - I thought Nebraska was a fairly obvious play last week while getting huge points against an overrated and historic rival. What I have not seen from Nebraska in a loooong while is the team rising up and playing even better the following week, which seems to me what is required here. Then I see the power rankings reflect a belief that Nebraska is the better team, and I am capping from a much different page until shown otherwise.

Iowa State(-7) over Baylor (1*)
- - I will be mildly shocked if Iowa State loses this game, and mildly shocked if they don?t look like a better team than they have shown so far. Covering the point spread is another matter, but I think ISU is solid value here.

UCLA(-4) over Stanford (1*)
- - MY theories on the direction of the UCLA program in 2021 is squarely in the crosshairs today.

Louisville(+1) over Florida State (1*)
- -

Arkansas(+4') over Texas A&M (1*)
- -

Kentucky(-4') over South Carolina (1)
- - I will tone down on my number of plays when I start whiffing, which will happen at some not too distant point. But until then, the plays I look at and like get made.

Kent State / Maryland(Un71')
- - Ha. Ha.

GL
 
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