First rule of bitcoin

Smitty

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That's not a tangible unless you receive a piece of those cash flows and you don't. You have a number on a screen that goes up based on expected cash flows years in advance that may or may not happen to the Company and will never happen for the shareholder.

I can see how people can say that Bitcoin isn't a tangible asset but I don't understand how they then can say that their stock holdings on their app are tangible or that their $20 bill made of paper and ink is. Or that a 2,000% gain with a 73 P/E ratio isn't a speculative asset. Look at this chart


Looks exactly like BTC. . . . and as unrequested free advice, if ISRG starts going down on the daily before it reaches $341, it'll be headed towards $200 with haste and it won't matter the cash flows that the Company's generating.
well, with some companies, you absolutely get a piece of the cash flows. usually mature companies that aren't putting all their cash back into the business. but, no, ISRG doesn't pay a dividend. and i'm glad they don't. i'd rather they stay focused on growing the business. the business that i own a (very, very, very) small piece of. and, sure, something crazy could happen and suddenly the company folds and my stock is worthless. the chances are remote, but not zero. but, for now, i own a piece of an income-producing business. the value of which will continue to rise for many years, because they are going to keep making profits. of course the stock price won't be a straight line. wouldn't be much of a market if it was. but it would take something extreme for ISRG not to be worth quite a bit more 10 years from now than it's worth now.

that said... yeah, the current P/E is certainly high. even for them. but i'm not buying today. and great companies rarely look super cheap. looks like their highest P/E was 9/29/04, when it reached 154.7. that's insane, and it quickly dropped back down. but if you bought at the closing price that day, you'd be up over 11,000%. not bad for an overpriced stock. anyway, the P/E was around 50 back when i bought it so many years ago, and it was around 50 when i added some on last year.

anyway, before we get way too far off topic, i just wanna make two points about your last line. 1) if stocks really consistently behaved based on trends, everyone would be rich, nobody would ever lose money in the stock market because we'd all know what was going to happen in the future and 2) if ISRG drops back to $200, which is absolutely 100% possible, i'll be ecstatic and first in line to buy more. because, barring a complete collapse of global healthcare, ISRG is probably going to be very, very profitable for the foreseeable future. which means, in the long term, the stock price will move accordingly.
 

rocky mountain

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thank you for the responses. that did clear up a couple things. but this right here is the part that doesn't make any sense to me. for something to be a bargain, it has to have an actual value in the first place. how can you value bitcoin? what is it actually worth? in fact, what is it? is the value because it's a currency? i know some retailers accept it, but not many. which doesn't make it very useful as a currency.

when it comes to stocks, it's possible to figure out if something is an actual bargain. my favorite example... about 15 years ago, i learned about ISRG. incredible company that was starting to dominate the robotic surgery market. they had a great product that was being adopted by hospitals around the world. and once a hospital commits to their system, it's very difficult/expensive to change to something else. plus, they used the "gillette model." while they made a profit on the machines, their real profits come from all the accessories that need to be replaced constantly. it's a fantastic business model. so you could take their cash flows, expenses, etc, and figure out a rough idea of what a share of ISRG was actually worth. and, at the time, it was a true bargain at $125/share. i doubled my normal first investment in a company (not a ton of money, unfortunately) In hindsight, i really wish i had put everything i had into it, because that investment is up over 2,000%. anyway, the point is with stocks you have a tangible, income-producing asset that can be valued. and that has actual value. how do you do a valuation of crypto? if somebody is willing to give you $30K today for one bitcoin, that is a price, not a value. for it to be a bargain, that implies there is a value.

i know one of the big selling points is that it's a finite resource. but that right there means it can never be useful as a currency. think about it... as much as everybody hates inflation, it's necessary. people tend to want raises at their jobs (the nerve!). well, how can employers make more money to pay more to their workers? they need to raise prices. so everything goes up, and the government puts more currency in circulation. how would that work if we had no fiat currency and we all relied on crypto?

near as i can tell, the crypto market is purely speculative. "the price today is $30K, but i'll pay that because i think it's going to double in the near future." generally speaking, very few people (who aren't insiders) end up making money in speculative markets. that's the same as day trading stocks. back when i bought ISRG, i had no idea what it would do the next day. the next month. even the next year. but i was extremely confident that over the next 10 - 20 years, it was going to be worth a hell of a lot more than it was then.

i guess the last point i'll make... i'm pretty sure most people who own crypto understand it about as well as i do. in other words, not much. they just bought it because they hope the price keeps going up, and they don't want to miss out (that's likely the biggest factor). whereas i understood how ISRG makes money. i made a LOT of sense to me.

personally, i think you should cash out your bitcoin right now and put it all on SF this week against philly. easy way to double your money, as long as purdy doesn't get hurt. what are the odds of that happening 2 years in a row?? :)
Your thesis fell apart in this last paragraph...🤬 You mess with the bird, you get the beak!!!
 
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BobbyBlueChip

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$38k right before the monthly close. All the ETF sponsors trying to secure their bitcoin before the ETFs are approved so that they can sell it. All trying to do it without making the price go parabolic......wonder what happens next?

Maybe when people can buy a share of an ETF, they'll think it's tangible :unsure:
December monthly ended at $42k - and those look like they're going to be January lows. Hopefully nobody listened to kickserv and why he tries to keep everyone poor.
 
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kickserv

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Hopefully nobody listened to kickserv and why he tries to keep everyone poor.

Big bucks for B Blue Chip.....good for you, keep up the good work:smilies19


And on top of that.....you save tons of money on porn, you can just jerk off to Bitcoin gifs.........
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T

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Instead of laughing you should do some research. I won't debate you, you are completely closed minded about anything to do with bitcoin. Same goes for kickserv.

You guys WILL be using it one day, nothing can stop it.

Bitcoin IS energy.
Bitcoin is NOT energy. It’s bad for the environment…It’s manipulated and controlled by the top 5-10 wallets.

 
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T

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All of these EFT’s are simply legal betting on if it will go up or down. Bitcoin has zero practical use on earth. It’s used for illegal activities and hiding your money from the IRS.
 
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BobbyBlueChip

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Bitcoin is NOT energy. It’s bad for the environment…It’s manipulated and controlled by the top 5-10 wallets.


These environmental claims have been debunked so many times by so many voices whether they're conservative, liberal and everywhere in between. United Nations University. . . . .lolololol



 

BobbyBlueChip

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WhatsHisNuts

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www.ffrf.org

It's the same thing, right? Your computer code in your digital wallet is closer to a Beanie Baby than it is to a rental property or shares of MSFT. Deny it all you like. Intrisic value is a real thing.
 

MadJack

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All of these EFT’s are simply legal betting on if it will go up or down. Bitcoin has zero practical use on earth. It’s used for illegal activities and hiding your money from the IRS.
Says the guy suggesting SWEATCOIN is a good buy.

Frustrated Skip Bayless GIF
 

BobbyBlueChip

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It's the same thing, right? Your computer code in your digital wallet is closer to a Beanie Baby than it is to a rental property or shares of MSFT. Deny it all you like. Intrisic value is a real thing.
Beanie babies are not durable, not scarce, not programmable, not fungible, not verifiable, and not divisible. But tell me more about your analogy...

Shares of MSFT are not durable, not scarce and are not programable.

Rental properties are not scarce, not programable and are based on market factors outside of your control and rely on operating effectiveness in the future to realize cash flows.

Intrinsic value is a real thing, it is a small part of fair value which is how this world buys and sells assets. And calling out a lack of intrinsic value in assets that you don't own while ignoring the lack of intrinsic value in the assets that you do own isn't telling anyone anything. Or maybe it's telling everyone everything.
 
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T

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Says the guy suggesting SWEATCOIN is a good buy.

Frustrated Skip Bayless GIF
Actually Jack…SWEAT is FREE and earned by your physical activity. Your steps earn you tokens. It has deflationary value. When you know you know. 😜
 

T

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I will state this for the record. I have been worked with 10+ crypto projects. I’ve also sat in with the SEC and IRS at Stanford on the parameters of legalizing crypto. Putting all the bullshit aside I am well connected in this industry.
 
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BobbyBlueChip

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I will state this for the record. I have been worked with 10+ crypto projects. I’ve also sat in with the SEC and IRS at Stanford on the parameters of legalizing crypto. Putting all the bullshit aside I am well connected in this industry.
If you don't have penguin. . . you're not shit.
 
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