St. Louis at Milwaukee (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
The Brewers swept this team at Busch Stadium (3-0, +$385) and there is no reason they won’t continue that success this weekend. The last place Cardinals have dropped 7 of their last 9 (-$710), while their offense averages a mere 3.5 runs per game. Milwaukee averages 5.2 runs per game vs. right-handers (+$820) and they’ll be facing one in each of the four games. We will avoid sizzling hot Sonny Gray (0.89 ERA), but the rest of the rotation does not really concern us. BEST BET: Brewers unless opposed by S. Gray.
Cleveland at Chicago W. Sox (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
The Guardians are off to a spectacular start (24-13, +$1095) as they hold off the surging Twins in the AL Central. However, their pitching has not been up to par in recent days (6.14 ERA last 10 days) and they could be vulnerable as hefty road favorites. Chicago is having a dreadful year (9-28, -$1145) but they did steal a win the first time these teams faced off in 2024 and they have been on a bit of an upswing. We’ll stay away for now. BEST BET: None.
Kansas City at L.A. Angels (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
The Angels are only 3-11 vs. right-handers here at Anaheim (-$740) and they’ll have their hands full with this vastly improved Kansas City club. The Royals look like playoff contenders at 22-16 (+$770) and they have several pitchers who should fare well vs. this opponent. Alec Marsh (+$650, 2.70 ERA) and Seth Lugo (+$220, 1.92) should be available at reasonable prices. No one in the LA rotation looks like much of a threat. BEST BET: Marsh/Lugo.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, MAY 10
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Cubs are off to a strong start in 2024 (22-16, +$815) and they should fare well against the fading Pirates (3-7, -$610 last 10 days), a team they dominated in head to head play last year (10-3, +$520). Pittsburgh averages just 3.1 runs per game against right-handers (-$955), with a dismal .630 overall OPS. Javier Assad (1.66 ERA in seven starts) and Jameson Taillon (+$435, 1.13 in four outings) have made huge contributions to the Chicago rotation already, and should do so this weekend at PNC Park. BEST BET: Assad/Taillon.
Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Braves have been floundering lately (4-6, -$350 last 10 days, averaging just 3.0 runs per game at the plate), dropping behind Philadelphia in the competitive NL East. The Mets have not been a money-maker at CitiField (-$390), but their pitching (3.72 team ERA) is on par with Atlanta’s (3.57). Luis Severino has pitched effectively for New York (3.60 ERA) and he should catch a decent price when he takes on Bryce Elder, who owns a bloated 5.29 ERA after starting three games. BEST BET: Severino vs. Elder.
Philadelphia at Miami (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Things look grim for the 10-29 Marlins, who are already 17 games behind Philadelphia in the NL East loss column. The Phillies roll into Miami with the best record in baseball (26-12, +$965). They own a 3.26 team ERA (2nd best in the NL) and they’ll have their hottest pitcher on the mound in the series opener. Ranger Suarez has led the Phillies to victories in each of his seven starts (+$740, 1.72 ERA). The Marlins are only 1-13 (-$1320) vs. left-handers, averaging a pitiful 2.7 runs per game. BEST BET: R. Suarez.
L.A. Dodgers at San Diego (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Padres are 3-2 vs. this team in head to head play (+$305) and they’ve climbed to .500 after a sluggish start. They are 6-2 in day games at Petco Park (+$330) and they’ll have veteran Yu Darvish (+$305, 2.94 ERA in seven outings) on the mound for Sunday’s afternoon finale. The Dodgers have been a disaster in day games vs. right-handers (2-6, -$825), so the situation could not look more favorable. BEST BET: Darvish in day games.
Cincinnati at San Francisco (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Reds have gone off the rails in recent days, dropping their last eight in a row (-$915), while averaging just 2.4 runs per game at the plate in those contests. However, the Giants are floundering as well (3-7, -$465 last 10 days), so Cincy may be able to steal some wins at Oracle Park. Nick Lodolo has looked sharp in five appearances for the visitor (+$270, 2.79 ERA). He should handle a San Francisco team that is only 3-7 (-$510) vs. southpaws. BEST BET: Lodolo.
Houston at Detroit (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Astros have suffered a steep decline so far in 2024 (13-24, -$1730), saddled with the worst pitching in the American League (5.00 ERA). They lost money vs. the Tigers in 2023 (-$400) and Detroit comes in with one of the lowest team ERAs in MLB (3.28). Tarik Skubal has been a standout for the Tigers in his seven outings (+$25, 1.90 ERA) and he should be available at a reasonable price this weekend at Comerica. BEST BET: Skubal.
N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Yankees are a formidable group this year and they enter Tropicana Field with a 2.89 team ERA, 2nd best in the majors. They have a 20-8 record vs. right-handers (+$1165), averaging 5.3 runs per game in those contests. We’ll get some opportunities in this series vs. the Rays’ unimpressive mound corps (4.41 ERA), but watch out for left-handers, given that New York has been a losing proposition vs. southpaws. BEST BET: Yankees vs. right-handers.
Minnesota at Toronto (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Twins (8-2, +$465 last 10 days) are relentlessly closing the gap with Cleveland in the AL Central, while the Blue Jays remain stuck in the AL East basement (-$495 overall). Toronto is struggling at the plate, averaging just 3.6 runs per game. Minnesota has won all four games started by Simeon WoodsRichardson (+$435, 1.74 ERA). He should catch a decent road price vs. Kevin Gausman on Saturday afternoon at Rogers Centre. BEST BET: WoodsRichardson.
Oakland at Seattle (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Mariners won 12 of 13 head to head match-ups with Oakland in 2023 (+$970) and their pitching is some of the best in the American League (3.33 ERA). Their offense needs to pick up the pace, though they are 7-3 vs. left-handers (+$435). Alex Wood (5.31 ERA) is slated to take a turn vs. Bryce Miller (+$355, 2.61 ERA) on Saturday evening. Seattle is 10-3 in night games here at T-Mobile Park. (+$705). BEST BET: Mariners vs. left-handers.
Arizona at Baltimore (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Orioles have the American League’s best record (24-12, +$515) as they get set to host the Diamondbacks at Camden Yards. They check in with a 3.30 team ERA, as well as a .750 OPS, tops in the AL. The Diamondbacks are on the upswing (6-4, +$210 last 10 days) and their 7.3 runs per game vs. left-handers might make them a tempting choice vs. the Baltimore southpaws. We’ll keep an eye on this series as the weekend progresses. BEST BET: None.
Washington at Boston (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Nationals continue to rack up big profits (+$1220), winning 6 of their last 10 (+$525) and climbing to 18-18 .The Red Sox have the best pitching in MLB (2.72 team ERA), so they’ll be heavily favored throughout. However, they average just 3.2 runs per game against left-handers, and they’ll see a couple of them at Fenway Park this weekend. Patrick Corbin looks terrible (6.45 ERA), but McKenzie Gore is having a nice season (3.44 ERA). We’ll take the underdog price when he’s on the hill. BEST BET: Gore.
Texas at Colorado (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The defending champion Rangers are 7-3 in the last 10 days (+$280), averaging 6.7 runs per game at the plate with a 2.93 ERA among starters. They draw a soft opponent this weekend at Coors Field, taking on a Rockies team at is only 9-28 so far (-$1360). Colorado has the worst pitching in baseball (5.56 ERA) and their offense is anemic (3.7 runs per game). They’ll be lucky to salvage a win in this three game set. BEST BET: Rangers in all games.
GOING WITH CUBS BIG PHL BIG TEXAS BIG ROYALS BIG
SMALLER PLAYS BAL -REDSOX NYY
