Mon 5/13 ~~~ mlb totals

[LordofBalls]

another shaky day/wk for totals systems.. Sun 4-8... week 27-32
my plays went 1.5w/3L/1P.. lost around $140 on mlb but won Sat while playing twice as much per play.. hope I can keep sharp!

nba went guut w/Pacers cruising so easily I was p.o.'d for backing off a little.. won $710 on Pacers ~ yay! lost $110 on par w/Oilers! drat!

still have Pacers/Mavs for series and feel confident there.. T-wolves are another story, how can a tm that looked so great AT Denver, suck so bad at home??
I didn't bet em yesterday cuz they looked sooo bad gm 3, sure enough similar game 4.. Gobert was awful from what I watched.. KAT not much better..
and bonehead plays right before halftime (gave up 8pts in like 13 secs) were sickening to Minn fans I'm sure!

T-wolves are a mystery! before gm 4 Nuggets were still +175 for series, so I played em to hedge..
IF Nugz win series, I lose $40 on Minn future.. IF Minn wins series, I win $350..
I can live w/that

Monday Totals Plays are:

HOME: watch: Astros/Rangers/Braves/D-backs
Rsox OV #3
Mets Ov #3 (<-- conflict w/Phils Un)
Sea Un #3
Padres Ov #3

Hm Re-Bets:
Orioles Un #2
Giants Un #1 (conflict w/LAD Ov)

ROAD: watch: Rays/Blue Jays/Rockies
Phils Un #3 (conflict w/Mets Ov)
Nats Ov #3
A's Un #3
Cubs Un #2 (tied yday)
Lad Ov #1 (conflict w/Gia Un)

Rd Re-Bet:
Reds Un #1

MLB NOTES:
As much as I like the concept of "just play the system", it has NOT been winning as easily or as early as it started out last year! So, the last few days of the week I broke down and started looking at basic stuff on Statfox.com..
* WHIPs of the Starting Pitchers.. over 1.30 means lots of baserunners, chance for runs
* Weather on Rotogrinders.com... wind blowing In/Out and temps.. cold gms/wind in = UNDER.. warm/wind out = OVER
basic.. simple.. not 100% (haven't found ANYthing that is) but works more than not.

NBA notes:
Celts -8.5 @ Cavs 206.5 (gm 4 @4pm PST).. Celts up 2-1.. no series play for me.
I've got no horse in this race other than Cavs cost me a par on Sat.. Celts played great, won by 13...
Pretty sure I'll play 1H Cavs.. for game it's a strong lean Cavs +pts (need someone besides Mitchell to score!)
OKC +1.5 @ Mavs 215.5 (gm 4 @630 PST).. Mavs up 2-1
I've got Mavs for Series here.. 320/478
I think Kyrie finally woke up when he stepped up in 4th qtr on Saturday! He makes them the stronger finishing team!
Luka, Hardaway, PJ Washington all solid..
MAVS ML probably.. we'll see

check nba forum later and GL!

BoL~LoB

 

[LordofBalls]

ok.. just looked at weather/pitchers.. I've got a LOT of plays it seems (NOT all System plays either)

Match System Plays:
*METS OV 7.5.. it's only 62 (cool) but wind out to LF 13mph -- SP whips 1.43/1.39.. shouldn't take much to get to 8 (1.8u)
*PADRES OV 8.. 63 degz.. SP WHIPS 1.79/1.58.. wind almost always from LF-->RF in Petco off the ocean (2.5u)
*CUBS UNDER 8.. IN from CF 11mph.. Imanaga/Lopez 1.08/1.53.. worth a shot to me (1.5u)
*SEA UNDER 7.. no weather.. SP WHIP's 1.00/1.04.. I'll try it here too (1.5)
*Balt Un 7.5.. bit shaky here.. wind out to LF 10mph/75 degz.. but SP WHIP's are GREAT! 1.12/0.96 (1.5)

Opposite System:
*A's OVER 8.5.. dome.. SP WHIP's 1.57/2.01.. Astros started heating up, A's better than expected at the plate.. very shaky SP's (2u)

Outside System:
Pitt/Milw OVER 8.5.. dome.. SP's meh.. 1.32/1.28 (1.5u)

added: Cleve/Rangers OV 9 (1.5)


I will play these 7 plays and hope for the best!
YOU should ONLY play what YOU feel good about playing.. it's YOUR money, so be careful out there!

LoB

 

[LordofBalls]

Mets OV -- Win
Padres OV -- WIN
Cubs UN -- Win
Balt Un -- Win
A's Ov -- Win
Pitt Ov -- Win

Tex Ov -- Loss
Sea Un -- Loss

Seattle hit 2 run HR w/2 outs in bottom of 8th.. sending the game Over the total

that "meaningless HR" cost me a 5tm parlay!

Still a good day!
6-2 w/mlb totals
hit Cavs for 2u, lost a unit back on Mavs ML

glad I only bet small on Mavs

gnite