NFL 2023-2024 Best Bets-OPINIONS-NEWS !

[Cnotes53]

SEPT'S NFL BEST BETS!

09/17/2023..............................8 - 13............................38.09%...........................- 31.50
09/14/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
09/11/2023..............................0 - 2..............................00.00%............................- 11.00
09/10/2023............................12 - 8..............................60.00%...........................+ 16.00
09/07/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50

TOTALS...................................22 - 25............................46.80%............................- 27.50

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Commanders 35, Broncos 33
— Washington is 2-0 for the first time since 2011.
— Wilson threw 50-yard Hail Mary TD pass at 0:00; tying 2-point play failed.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 3-0 as an NFL starter
— Since 2018, Washington is 19-10-1 ATS coming off a win.

— Denver’s first three drives: 17 plays, 226 yards, 20 TD’s.
— Denver rest of game: 39 plays, 194 yards, 13 points.
— Second week in row a missed PAT proved costly.
— Broncos lost their first two games, by total of three points.

Seahawks 37, Lions 31
— Seahawks drove 75 yards on nine plays for game-winning TD in OT.
— Lockett caught 8 passes for 59 yards, two TD’s.
— Seattle scored a TD on its first drive of both games this season.
— Last 10+ years, Seattle is 33-23-3 ATS coming off a loss.

— Goff threw pick-6; Seattle led 31-21 with 8:14 left.
— Next two drives, Lions ran 16 plays, gained 105 yards, 10 points, tied game.
— Over is 22-10-1 in Detroit’s last 33 home games.
— Over is 12-2 in NFL games so far this weekend.

Titans 27, Chargers 24
— Last three games that counted, Chargers scored 30-34-24 points, lost all three.
— Chargers lost first two games this season by total of five points.
— WR Allen caught 8 passes for 111 yards, two TD’s.
— Bolts are 8-17-7 ATS in last 32 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

— Chargers tied game with 0:03 left on a 33-yard FG.
— Titans drove 38 yards, kicked 41-yard FG in rain for the OT win.
— Tennessee was 6-13 on third down, Chargers 2-14 (3-3 on 4th down).
— Last 2+ years, Titans are 9-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Giants 31, Cardinals 28
— Giants trailed this game 20-0 at halftime.
— Giants in 1st half: 26 plays, 76 yards, no points.
— Giants in 2nd half: 42 plays, 350 yards, 31 points.
— QB Jones was 26-37/321 with two TD passes.

— Cardinals’ first six drives: 46 plays, 341 yards, 28 points.
— Cardinals’ last four drives: 17 plays, 48 yards, no points.
— QB Dobbs is now 0-4 as an NFL starter.
— Cardinals lost their first two games by total of seven points.

Falcons 25, Packers 24
— Falcons drove 66 yards to kick game-winning 25-yard FG with 1:01 left.
— Atlanta outgained the Packers, 446-224.
— Falcons ran ball 45 times for 211 yards.
— Home side won last seven series games.

— Packers’ first two drives of 3rd quarter: 10 plays, 143 yards, two TD’s.
— Packers’ three drives rest of game: 10 plays, 7 yards, no first downs.
— Green Bay was 9-16 on 3rd down last week, 3-9 this week.
— Last 2+ years, Packers are 1-7-1 ATS on artificial turf.

Colts 31, Texans 20
— Colts scored 2 TD’s on Richardson’s 3 drives, then he left (concussion)
— Backup QB Minshew is better than he is (19-23/171 passing, with a TD)
— Colts scored a TD on four of their first six drives.
— Indianapolis is 6-1-1 SU in last series games.

— Opponents are 14-27 on 3rd down so far this season.
— WR Collins caught 7 passes for 146 yards and a TD.
— Texans are 16-24-1 ATS in last 41 games coming off a loss.
— Last 4+ years. Houston is 5-8 ATS in AFC South home games.

Buccaneers 27, Bears 17
— Down 20-17, Fields threw an awful pick-6 with 2:12 left.
— Fields is 5-22 SU as an NFL starter.
— Tampa Bay outgained the Bears 437-236.
— Last 2+ years, Chicago is 5-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— WR Evans caught six passes for 171 yards and a TD.
— First three drives: 27 plays, 197 yards, 10 points and a blocked FG.
— Last four years, over is 18-13 in Tampa Bay home games.
— Tampa Bay has outrushed opponents 193-108 in two games.

Bills 38, Raiders 10
— Buffalo ran 74 plays for 450 yards; Raiders ran 39 plays for 240 yards.
— Raiders were 3-7 on third down, Bills were 7-13.
— Las Vegas is 4-14 ATS in last 18 games on artificial turf.
— Over is 7-1 in last seven series games.

— Buffalo scored five TD’s on their eight drives.
— Josh Allen was 31-37/274 passing, with three TD’s.
— Bills are 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Last four years, Bills are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.

Chiefs 17, Jaguars 9
— Chiefs’ first four drives: 19 plays, 81 yards, 2 turnovers, no points.
— Chiefs’ next two drives: 14 plays, 131 yards, 14 points.
— Mahomes was 29-41/305 passing, with two TD’s.
— KC won last eight series games (6-2 ATS).

— Jaguars didn’t score a TD, kicked three FG’s on 11 drives.
— Chiefs had 12 penalties for 94 yards, Jaguars 2 for 10.
— Two games this season, Jaguars are 6-24 on third down.
— Under is 14-3 in their last 17 home games.

Ravens 27, Bengals 24
— Ravens’ last two drives of first half: 22 plays, 102 yards, two FG’s.
— First two drives of second half: 16 plays, 137 yards, 14 points.
— First two games, Ravens converted 17-29 on third down.
— Baltimore has allowed two TD’s on opponents’ 19 drives this season.

— Bengals’ first TD came on an 81-yard punt return.
— Cincy’s first offensive TD this season came on their 19th drive.
— First two games, Bengals averaged 2.0/5.1 yards/pass attempt.
— First two games, Cincinnati was outgained 765-434.

49ers 30, Rams 23
— San Francisco ran for 159 yards (347 yards/two games).
— Moody’s 57-yard FG put SF up for good, 20-17.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 9-1 as NFL starter.
— Since beginning of LY, 49ers are +19 in turnovers (minus-15 in 2020-21)

— Rams’ first three drives: 32 plays, 198 yards, 17 points.
— Rams rest of game: 49 plays, 164 yards, 6 points.
— Rookie WR Nacua caught 15 passes for 147 yards.
— 49ers won nine of last ten series games.

Cowboys 30, Jets 10
— Jets’ only TD was a 68-yard pass from Wilson to Wilson.
— Jets in second half: 22 plays, 68 yards, 4 turnovers, no points.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 4-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 6-9 ATS as a road underdog.

— Cowboys were 9-18 on third down, Jets were 1-10.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 19-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Dallas outgained first two opponents, 647-386.
— Cowboys outscored first two opponents, 70-10.

Dolphins 24, Patriots 17
— Mostert ran ball 18 times for 121 yards, 2 TD’s.
— Tua Tagovailoa is 5-0 against New England.
— Dolphins in first half: 35 plays, 232 yards, 17 points.
— Opponents are 16-30 on third down this year.

— New England is 0-2 for the first time since 2001.
— Patriots averaged only 4.3 yards/pass play.
— Last 3+ years, Patriots are 3-7 ATS as a home underdog.
— Since Brady left, NE is 25-27 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.

Don’t forget, there are two Monday night NFL games tonight.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 2

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 18​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
NO at CAR	07:15 PM	CAR +3.0 O 39.5	+500 +500
CLE at PIT	08:15 PM	CLE -2.5 U 38.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
09/18/2023	0-3-1	12.50%	-1650	Detail
09/17/2023	9-17-0	34.62%	-4850	Detail
09/14/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
09/11/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
09/10/2023	14-14-0	50.00%	-700	Detail
09/07/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail

 

[Cnotes53]

SEPT'S NFL BEST BETS!

09/18/2023..............................0 - 3 - 1.......................00.00%...........................- 16.50
09/17/2023..............................8 - 13............................38.09%...........................- 31.50
09/14/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
09/11/2023..............................0 - 2..............................00.00%............................- 11.00
09/10/2023............................12 - 8..............................60.00%...........................+ 16.00
09/07/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50

TOTALS...................................22 - 28............................44.00%............................- 44.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
College football spreads for this week:
— Wisconsin (-4) @ Purdue
— Boise State (-8) @ San Diego State
— Army @ Syracuse (-9)
— Mississippi State @ South Carolina (-4)
— Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (-3)
— BYU @ Kansas (-7)

Quote of the Day
“The Orioles have a 70-year partnership with the city and the state, and Camden Yards more than 30. And we’re going to have 30 more. That’s a given.”
Baltimore Orioles owner John Angelos

Tuesday’s quiz
Carolina Panthers have played in/lost two Super Bowls; who were their QB’s in those two games?

Monday’s quiz
Denzel Washington got his big break as a regular in the old TV show St Elsewhere; Timothy Robbins was also in several episodes of that show the first year, but only as a guest star.

Sunday’s quiz
Lee Corso is famous for his work on ESPN, but he was also a pretty good coach. He spent 10 years as head coach of the Indiana Hoosiers.

***************************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

Saints 20, Panthers 17
— Saints’ defense has allowed one TD on 22 drives this season.
— New Orleans outgained the Panthers, 341-239
— Mobile backup QB Hill ran ball nine times for 75 yards.
— Last 2+ years, under is 11-6 in Saints’ road games.
— Carolina scored 8 points with 1:16 left to cover/push spread, depending on your number.
— Panthers averaged only 3.9 yards/pass attempt.
— In two games, Carolina has scored only 2 TD’s on 22 drives.
— Panthers are 9-28 on third down in their first two games.

Steelers 26, Browns 22
— Pittsburgh scored two defensive TD’s as they even their record at 1-1.
— Cleveland outgained the Steelers, 408-255
— Pickens caught a 71-yard TD pass that put Steelers ahead 16-11.
— Steelers won five of last six series games.
— Watson threw a pick-6 on the first play of the game.
— His fumble was returned for game-winning TD with 6:58 left.
— Browns lost star RB Chubb with a knee injury.
— Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in last seven visits to Pittsburgh.
— Browns are 4-4 in Deshaun Watson’s starts; they were 30-31 in Baker Mayfield’s starts. Why didn’t they keep Mayfield? He makes hell of a lot less $$$ than Watson.

— Mayfield has played for seven offensive coordinators the last six seasons, which is a lot.

— So far this NFL season, road teams are 19-13 SU.

— In his brief NFL career, Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow is 1-7 in Weeks 1-2, 23-12-1 in all the other games.

— Odd Stat: Denver Broncos lost the last nine games when they led at halftime.

— Cardinals 1, Brewers 0
Adam Wainwright gets his 200th career win.
Willson Contreras homered, for the game’s only run.

— Orioles 8, Astros 7
Baltimore scored three runs in top of the ninth.
Ryan O’Hearn went 5-5, with two RBI.
Orioles clinched their playoff spot Sunday, their first playoff bid since 2016

— Word of the Day: Kerfuffle— a disturbance or commotion caused by a dispute/conflict.

— Football Trend of the Day: Baltimore Ravens are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.

— Vanderbilt is the only college football team that is 0-4 against the spread this year.

— Most people agree that Angel Hernandez is a bad umpire; he sued MLB because they didn’t make him a crew chief, when he should be thanking them for not firing him.
Last week in Pittsburgh, Hernandez called 34 pitches strikes in a Nationals-Pirates game; 12 of those pitches were actually balls. A 65% accuracy rate on called strikes? Freakin’ Helen Keller could come close to that.

— Tampa Bay Rays are going to announce plans for a new stadium that will seat around 30,000 and cost over $1.2B to build— it is expected to open in 2028.

— This past weekend, Cincinnati Reds played the Mets in New York; Reds’ manager David Bell is the grandson of Gus Bell, who played in 30 games for the original New York Mets in 1962.

— Speaking of the Reds, their CF TJ Friedl is cousins with Kentucky basketball coach John Calipari.

— Minnesota Twins’ IF Royce Lewis has hit 16 home runs in his first 69 major league games; five of those home runs were grand slams.

— Maui Classic basketball tournament in November will be played in Honolulu this year, at the Stan Sheriff Center; the arena where it is usually played in Lahaina is being used as a center to help Maui’s recovery from the terrible damage they have from the wildfires this summer.

— Alabama started Jalen Milroe at QB in their first game; they started Tyler Buchner in their second game, then replaced him with 3rd-stringer Ty Simpson.
This week, Alabama is going back to Milroe at QB for their game with Ole Miss.

 

[Udog]

WEEK 3

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 59-33 ATS (22.7 Units) after 2+ SU losses since 1992.

CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.

NEW ENGLAND is 55-23 ATS (29.7 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game since 1992.

GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 47-22 ATS (22.8 Units) against the AFC West since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

DETROIT is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored in the last 2 seasons.

INDIANAPOLIS are 32-14 ATS (16.6 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival since 1992.

CAROLINA is 47-27 ATS (17.3 Units) after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.

ARIZONA is 49-29 ATS (17.1 Units) in home games after 2+ SU losses since 1992.

CHICAGO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

LAS VEGAS are 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.

TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 2 seasons.

LA RAMS are 39-20 ATS (17 Units) after 2+ division games since 1992.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 3

Thursday’s game
Giants (1-1) @ 49ers (2-0)
— Giants have been outscored 46-0 in first half of their two games.
— Giants outscored Arizona 31-8 in 2nd half of LW’s 31-28 road win.
— Since 2018, Big Blue is 25-11 ATS as a road underdog.
— Giants were 6-3 ATS LY in game coming off a win.
— Giants have only one takeaway in two games (minus-2 turnovers)
— Under is 16-9 in their last 25 road games.
— Daniel Jones is 23-33-1 as an NFL starter.
— LW, Giants’ seven plays that gained 15+ yards all came on first down.

— San Francisco scored 30-30 points in winning first two games, both on road.
— 49ers outscored foes 23-6 in 2nd half; they haven’t allowed a 2nd half TD yet.
— First two games, 49ers won field position by 10-8 yards.
— 49ers are 3-3 SU/1-5 ATS in last six home openers.
— SF was 7-1 ATS as a home favorite LY (7-16-1 from 2018-21).
— 49ers are 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Since beginning of LY, 49ers are +19 in turnovers (+5 in two games this year)
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 9-1 as NFL starter.

— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Teams split last eight meetings.
— Giants are 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to San Francisco.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 3

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 21​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
NYG at SF	08:15 PM	SF -10.5 U 44.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
09/21/2023	2-0-0	100.00%	+1000	Detail
09/18/2023	0-3-1	12.50%	-1650	Detail
09/17/2023	9-17-0	34.62%	-4850	Detail
09/14/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
09/11/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
09/10/2023	14-14-0	50.00%	-700	Detail
09/07/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail

 

[Cnotes53]

SEPT'S NFL BEST BETS!

09/21/2023..............................2 - 0 ...........................100.00%.........................+ 10.00
09/18/2023..............................0 - 3 - 1.......................00.00%...........................- 16.50
09/17/2023..............................8 - 13............................38.09%...........................- 31.50
09/14/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50
09/11/2023..............................0 - 2..............................00.00%............................- 11.00
09/10/2023............................12 - 8..............................60.00%...........................+ 16.00
09/07/2023..............................1 - 1..............................50.00%............................- 0.50

TOTALS...................................24 - 28............................46.15%............................- 34.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
NFL spreads for this week:
— Colts @ Baltimore (-8.5)
— Panthers @ Seattle (-6)
— Cowboys (-12.5) @ Arizona
— Bears @ Kansas City (-12.5)
— Steelers @ Las Vegas (-3)
— Eagles (-4.5) @ Tampa Bay

Quote of the Day
“I’m honestly just kind of speechless right now. He gave all of us brand-new cleats. Most of us really needed it too because I was giving out some of my (old) cleats to the boys, but Marcus Mariota pulled through and gave us some cleats and we just wanted to thank him for all he’s done for us and everything he’s accomplished.”
Kuola Watson, a high school football player in Hawai’i

Friday’s quiz
Where did 49ers QB Brock Purdy play his college football?

Thursday’s quiz
El Paso, TX hosts the Sun Bowl every December.

Wednesday’s quiz
The TV show Frasier was set in Seattle.

********************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….​

49ers 30, Giants 12
— Giants have been outscored 63-6 in first half of their three games.
— Big Blue averaged only 3.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Under is 17-9 in their last 26 road games.
— Daniel Jones is 23-34-1 as an NFL starter.
— San Francisco scored 30-30-30 points in winning first three games
— SF is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.
— 49ers outgained Giants 441-150.
— Giants were 3-12 on third down, 49ers were 9-16.

Georgia State 30, Coastal Carolina 17
— Georgia State won first three I-A games, scoring 41-35-30 points.
— Last 3+ years, Panthers are 10-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 4+ years, Chanticleers are 9-13 ATS as a home favorite.
— Georgia State ran ball for 182 yards, converted 9-15 on third down.

— Broncos visit Miami Sunday; Dolphins’ new defensive coordinator is Vic Fangio, who was Denver’s head coach from 2019-21, going 19-30 in three seasons, when he didn’t have Elway, Manning or even Russell Wilson as his QB.

— Which reminds me, NFL coordinators make a boatload of $$$, don’t deal with the media much, their job is just football. I’m wonderful if coordinators are ever happy just to do that job, as opposed to becoming a head coach, where the job is more diverse, the $$$ is bigger, but maybe the job isn’t as much fun and is more aggravating.
Probably not often, but I’m guessing it has happened once or twice.

— Looks like the qualifying offer for potential free agents in baseball will be around $20.5M this winter; teams offer the potential free agent $20.5M and if he turns it down, that team gets a compensatory draft pick when he signs with a different team.
Of the last 124 players in this situation, only 13 took the qualifying offer.

— Summer flew by; NHL training camps opened this week.

— Word of the Day: Oblivion— A state of unawareness of what’s going on around you.

— Football Trend of the Day: Last 5+ years, Clemson is 30-13-1 ATS in ACC games.

— First two weeks in the NFL, new head coaches have lost nine of ten games.

— Carolina Panthers’ QB Bryce Young hasn’t practiced the last couple days, looks like Andy Dalton will get the start Sunday in Seattle.

— NC State plays at Virginia Friday, where Wolfpack QB Brennan Armstrong will see a lot of old friends; Armstrong played for Virginia the last three years, starting 30 games.

— Mets’ OF Tim Locastro has an unusual stat line; in his career, Locastro has been hit by 42 pitches, but he’s only walked 36 times.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 3

Sunday’s games
Chargers (0-2) @ Vikings (0-2)
— Chargers scored 30-34-24 points in last three games, lost all three.
— Chargers lost last two weeks, by total of five points.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bolts are 8-17-7 ATS in last 32 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Chargers are 13-19-1 ATS in last 33 games coming off a loss.
— Herbert is 25-27 as an NFL starter.
— Since 2017, Chargers are 14-9-3 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Over is 20-14 in their last 34 road games.


— Vikings lost first two games, by 3-6 points.
— Minnesota was 11-0 LY in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Vikings are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.
— In two games, Minnesota has run ball 26 times for only 69 yards.
— Since 2013, Vikings are 42-23-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last nine years, Minnesota is 26-12 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Cousins is 73-68-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Minnesota played on Thursday LW, had extra prep time for this.


— Vikings won/covered last three series games.
— Chargers lost 31-14/35-17 in last two visits to Minnesota.
— Three of last four meetings stayed under total.


Titans (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)
— Titans split their first two games, decided by total of four points.
— Last week’s win snapped an 8-game skid, going back to LY.
— Since 2018, Titans are 15-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Titans are minus-3 in turnovers (1-4) so far this season.
— First drive in Weeks 1-2, they ran 13 plays for only 15 yards.
— Last two years, Titans are 12-5 ATS coming off a win.
— Tannehill is 81-69 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Under is 7-2 in Titans’ last nine road games.


— Short week for Browns after Monday night’s loss in Pittsburgh.
— Cleveland’s offense gave up two defensive TD’s in 26-22 loss to Steelers.
— First two games, Cleveland outgained opponents 758-407.
— Browns ran ball for 394 yards in Weeks 1-2, had only six plays of 20+ yards.
— Last three years, Cleveland is 7-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Stefanski, Cleveland is 10-11-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Opponents have converted only 6-29 third down plays.
— Watson is 33-31 as an NFL starter, 4-4 for Cleveland.


— Tennessee won three of last four series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Over is 5-1 in last six series games.


Texans (0-2) @ Jaguars (1-1)
— Texans lost their first two games, by 16-11 points.
— Texans are 16-24-1 ATS in last 41 games coming off a loss.
— First two games, Houston lost field position by 12-9 yards.
— Opponents have converted 16-30 third down plays.
— Texans have scored only 19 points on six red zone drives.
— Stroud is 0-2 as an NFL starter.
— Last two years. Houston is 5-1 ATS in AFC South road games.
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.


— Jaguars split their first two games (favorites covered both).
— Chiefs outgained Jags 399-271 LW, in 17-9 KC win.
— Jacksonville is only 6-24 on third down in two games.
— Jaguars are 12-23-1 ATS in last 36 games coming off a loss.
— Lawrence is 13-23 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Last 2+ years, under is 14-3 in their home games.
— Pederson is 57-49-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— After this game, Jaguars head to England for two weeks.


— Houston won nine of last ten series games (7-3 ATS)
— Texans are 7-2 ATS in last nine visits to Jacksonville.
— Under is 8-3 in last eleven meetings.


Patriots (0-2) @ Jets (1-1)
— Patriots lost first two home games, 25-20/24-17.
— Since Brady left, NE is 25-27 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Patriots are 6-10-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— New England is 5-2-1 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.
— Mac Jones is 16-18 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots are 2-3 SU/ATS in last five road openers.
— Under is 3-1 in New England’s last four road openers.
— Patriots are 4-5 ATS in last nine AFC East road games


— Jets got hammered 30-10 LW with #2 QB Wilson playing.
— Wilson is 8-15 as an NFL starter.
— First two games, Jets averaged 4.7/5.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Jets were outgained 382-215 in Dallas LW; turned ball over 4 times.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 6-9 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last 5+ years, Jets are 5-11 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 10-11 ATS in games coming off a loss
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine home games.


— New England won last fifteen series games (8-2 ATS last 10).
— Patriots are 4-1 ATS in last five visits here.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.


Saints (2-0) @ Packers (1-1)
— Short week for Saints after Monday’s win in Charlotte.
— In two games, Saints’ defense allowed one TD on 21 drives.
— Opponents have converted only 6-26 on third down.
— Saints held first two opponents to 3.9/4.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Since 2018, Saints are 12-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— NO is 19-11-2 ATS in last 32 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last 2+ years, under is 11-6 in Saints’ road games.
— QB Carr is 65-80 as an NFL starter.
— Saints are 24-12 ATS in last 36 games on natural grass.


— Packers split first two games, with home team winning both.
— Green Bay was outgained 446-224 in Atlanta LW.
— Falcons outscored Pack 13-0 over final 12:00 of LW’s 25-24 win.
— GB is 13-9-2 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Packers are 13-4 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
— Green Bay has 5 TD’s/FG in six trips to red zone.
— Jordan Love is 1-2 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 11-7 in their last 18 home games.


— New Orleans won three of last four series games.
— Saints are 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Lambeau.
— Over is 8-2 in last ten meetings.


Broncos (0-2) @ Dolphins (2-0)
— Denver lost its first two games by a combined three points.
— Broncos missed a PAT in both games, which proved costly.
— Broncos has only six plays of 20+ yards in two games.
— Denver lost 13 of its last 16 games SU.
— Since 2018, Broncos are 16-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Denver is 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in last seven road openers.
— Last two years, under was 11-5 in Broncos’ road games.
— Russell Wilson is 117-73-1 as an NFL starter, 4-13 with Denver.


— Miami won its first two games, scoring 36-24 points.
— Miami already has 13 plays of 20+ yards.
— In two games, opponents are 16-30 on third down.
— since 2020, Dolphins are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— Miami is 21-11 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
— Miami is 4-2 ATS in last six home openers.
— Over is 12-2 in their last 14 home openers.
— Tagovailoa is 23-13 as an NFL starter.


— Denver won three of last four series games.
— Broncos covered once in its last four visits to Miami.


Bills (1-1) @ Commanders (2-0)
— Bills ran for 183 yards, outgained Raiders 450-240 in LW’s 38-10 win.
— Bills converted 12-26 third down plays in two games.
— Bills are 14-10 ATS in last 24 games as a road favorite.
— Buffalo led first two games by 10-11 points at halftime.
— Under is 8-2 in Buffalo’s last ten road games.
— Josh Allen is 57-29 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 12-6-1 ATS in last 19 games on natural grass.
— Last four years, Bills are 11-6 ATS coming off a loss.


— Washington is 2-0 for first time since 2011.
— Commanders have scored 41 points in five trips to red zone.
— Washington is 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog.
— Three of their four TD drives in Denver LW were less than 60 yards.
— Commanders are 8-10 ATS in last 18 games vs AFC teams.
— Under is 11-4 in Washington’s last 15 games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 3-0 as NFL starter.
— Since 2018, Washington is 19-10-1 ATS coming off a win.


— Bills won/covered five of last six series games.
— Buffalo split last two visits here; their last visit was 2015.
— Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Falcons (2-0) @ Lions (1-1)
— Falcons won first two games, holding foes to 281-224 yards.
— Atlanta has scored 43 points in eight trips to red zone.
— Last three years, Falcons were 12-9 ATS as road underdogs.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 5-7-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Ridder is 4-2 as an NFL starting QB.
— Falcons lost last five road openers SU (2-4 ATS in last six)
— Over is 3-0 in their last three road openers.
— Under is 8-2 in their last ten games overall.


— Detroit split first two games, a 1-point win, an OT loss.
— Lions already have 11 plays of 20+ yards.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 24-11-1 ATS, 4-2 as home favorite.
— Detroit defense has allowed 44 points in eight red zone drives.
— Lions scored 10 points in last 8:13 of regulation to force OT last week.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 12-9 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Goff is 57-49-1 as an NFL starter, 13-19-1 with the Lions.
— Over is 22-10-1 in Detroit’s last 33 home games.


— Atlanta won five of last seven series games.
— Falcons covered five of last six visits to Detroit.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Colts (1-1) @ Ravens (2-0)
— QB Richardson had concussion LW; does he start or Minshew?
— Both Colt games this season went over the total.
— Colts lost 11 of their last 14 games SU.
— Colts are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
— Last three years, Indy was 12-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Over is 14-11 in their last 25 road games.
— Rookie QB Richardson is 1-1 as an NFL starter, Minshew is 8-16.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB


— Ravens won their first two games, scoring 25-27 points.
— Baltimore converted 17 of their first 29 3rd down plays.
— Ravens are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Ravens scored 48 points on their first eight red zone drives.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only two TD’s on 19 drives.
— Lamar Jackson is 48-19 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Last 2+ years, Ravens are 8-11 ATS coming off a win.
— Under is 8-1 in their last nine home games.


— Ravens won last three series games, by 6-14-7 points.
— Colts covered 11 of last 12 meetings.
— Under is 7-1 in last eight series games.
— Colts called Baltimore home until 1984.


Panthers (0-2) @ Seahawks (1-1)
— Unclear which QB will start; check status.
— Carolina lost first two games, scoring 10-17 points.
— First two games. Carolina averaged 3.2/3.8 yards per pass attempt.
— Panthers were 9-28 on third down in first two games.
— Carolina is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Panthers are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games on artificial turf.
— Carolina is 17-23-2 ATS in last 42 games, coming off a loss.
— Under is 20-15 in Carolina’s last 35 games.


— Seahawks won OT game in Detroit LW, after blowing 10-point lead in last 8:13.
— Seattle has run for only 167 yards on 43 carries, are 7-20 on third down.
— Seahawks gave up 650 PY in first two games, but that was vs Stafford/Goff.
— Last 2+ years, Seahawks are 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— First two games, Seattle was outgained 844-573.
— Geno Smith is 23-30 as an NFL starter, 11-12 with Seattle.
— Last 3+ years, Seattle is 8-15 ATS coming off a win.
— Seattle is 17-20 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.


— Seahawks won seven of last nine series games.
— Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last six visits to Seattle.
— Last five meetings went over the total.


Bears (0-2) @ Chiefs (1-1)
— QB Fields publicly criticized coaches during week; not ideal.
— Chicago DC Williams quit this week; no one is saying why.
— Bears are 9-27 SU/12-22-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago is 9-26 on 3rd down, averaged 4.6/4.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Last two years, Chicago is 5-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Fields is 5-22 SU as an NFL starter.
— Bears are 6-3-1 ATS in last 10 games vs AFC opponents.
— Bears are 13-23-3 ATS in last 39 games coming off a loss.


— Chiefs split first two games, scoring 20-17 points.
— KC is 10-14 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Chiefs have scored 34 points in six red zone drives.
— Kansas City outgained Jags 399-271 LW, but had 12 penalties for 94 yards.
— Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in last 11 games vs NFC opponents.
— Chiefs are 14-23-1 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 76-20 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 16-9-1 in Chiefs’ last 26 home games.


— Chiefs are 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS in last five series games.
— Bears split their last two visits to Arrowhead.
— Last five meetings stayed under the total.


Cowboys (2-0) @ Cardinals (0-2)
— Dallas won their first two games by a combined 70-10.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 19-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Cowboys are 19-30 on third down, opponents are 6-26.
— Dallas is 15-9 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
— Cowboys outgained first two opponents, 647-386.
— QB Prescott is 65-40 as an NFL starter.
— Cowboys have six takeaways in two games (+5 turnovers).


— Arizona blew 28-7 2nd half lead in last week’s home loss to Giants.
— Cardinals lost first two games, but covered both games.
— Arizona led their first two games at halftime (outscored 41-11 in 2nd half)
— Cardinals have lost 9 in row, 13 of last 15 games SU (6-6 ATS in last 12).
— Last 3+ years, Cardinals are 5-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— QB Dobbs is 0-4 as an NFL starter; he is 42-61/360 passing, with no INTs.
— Arizona is 11-8 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
— Over is 10-14 in their last 34 home games.


— Cardinals won/covered six of last seven series games.
— Cowboys lost three of last four visits to the desert.
— Under is 4-0-1 in last five meetings.


Steelers (1-1) @ Raiders (1-1)
— Short week/long travel for Steelers after their Monday nite game.
— Pittsburgh scored two defensive TD’s in Monday’s 26-22 win.
— Steelers were outgained 799-494 in first two games.
— Pittsburgh has run ball 31 times for only 96 yards.
— First series of game, Steelers have run six plays for 2 yards, with a turnover.
— Pitt is 26-14-1 ATS in last 41 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Pittsburgh is 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 8-6 as an NFL starter.


— Raiders split pair of road games, scoring 17-10 points.
— Las Vegas has scored only 24 points on six red zone drives.
— Since 2017, Raiders are 10-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Raiders are 11-13 ATS in last 24 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Last three years, Las Vegas was 10-14 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Garoppolo is 41-18 as an NFL starting QB.
— Las Vegas won/covered four of last six home openers.
— Over is 7-2 in their last nine home openers.


— Raiders won six of last nine series games.
— Steelers are 0-4 ATS in last four road series games.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Monday’s games
Eagles (2-0) @ Buccaneers (2-0)
— Eagles won first two games, scoring 25-34 points.
— Philly played last Thursday, had extra time to prep for this.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 27-13 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Eagles ran ball for 259 yards LW, outgained Vikings, 430-374
— Hurts is 27-13 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 12-11-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.


— Tampa Bay won first two games, outrushing foes 193-108.
— Bucs converted 14 of first 32 third down plays.
— Since 2017, Bucs are 9-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Buccaneers are 16-17-3 ATS in last 36 games coming off a win.
— Bucs threw for 317 yards LW, gained 9.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Last 4+ years, over is 18-13 in Tampa Bay home games.
— Mayfield is 34-39 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Tampa Bay hasn’t been 3-0 since 2005.


— Buccaneers won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— Eagles are 3-3 ATS in last six visits to Tampa.
— Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Rams (1-1) @ Bengals (0-2)
— Rams split pair of division games to start season.
— Rookie WR Nacua has caught 25 passes for 266 yards.
— Rams are 18-32 on third down in first two games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 9-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Stafford is 94-105-1 as an NFL starter, 20-12 with the Rams.
— Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under McVay, Rams are 20-13-1 ATS in games coming of a loss.
— Under is 7-1-1 in their last nine road games.


— Unclear how healthy QB Burrow (calf) is; he didn’t play well LW.
— Bengals lost their first two games; they were outgained, 765-434
— Cincy averaged 2.0/5.1 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-2.
— Cincinnati went 3/out on 10 of 20 drives so far.
— Bengals are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Cincinnati is 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games vs NFC opponents.
— Bengals are 14-7 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
— Over is 10-6-1 in their last seventeen home games.


— Teams split last six meetings.
— Rams (-4.5) beat Cincinnati 23-20 in Super Bowl two years ago.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Most home runs leading off a game in MLB history:
81— Rickey Henderson
57— George Springer
54— Alfonso Soriano
53— Craig Biggio
48— Ian Kinsler
48— Mookie Betts

Quote of the Day
“It’s elite company, that’s for sure. I’m just glad I got a front-row seat to watch it.”
Braves’ manager Brian Snitker, on Ronald Acuna’s season

Saturday’s quiz
Who was the first major leaguer to hit 40+ home runs and steal 40+ bases in the same season?

Friday’s quiz
49ers QB Brock Purdy played his college football at Iowa State.

Thursday’s quiz
El Paso, TX hosts the Sun Bowl every December.

*******************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Friday…….​

— Braves 9, Nationals 6— Ronald Acuna is the first player ever to hit 40+ home runs, steal 60+ bases in the same season.

— Brewers 16, Marlins 1— Milwaukee scored 12 runs in the second inning, clinching their fifth playoff spot in six years.
Christian Yelich hit two homers and a double, knocked in five runs.

— Phillies 5, Mets 4 (10)— Alec Bohm had the walk-off single in the 10th inning, after the Mets tied the game in the ninth, on a Brett Baty home run.
Mets are only fourth team ever to finish under .500, the season after they won 100+ games.

— Rangers 8, Mariners 5— Rookie Evan Carter hit a 3-run homer as Texas takes over first place in the AL West.

— Royals 7, Astros 5— Houston is 3-7 in its last ten games; Kansas City has won eight of its last nine games— they’re 52-102 but still competing.
Astros are hanging on by a thread to the last playoff spot in the AL.

— New York 7, Arizona 1— Aaron Judge hit three homers, knocked in six runs.

— Padres 4, Cardinals 2— San Diego has won eight games in a row; they’re not totally out of the playoff picture yet.
Manny Machado hit two home runs for the Padres.

— Word of the Day: Annihilate— totally destroy or obliterate.

— Football Trend of the Day: Last two years, Tennessee Titans are 12-5 ATS coming off a win.

— NC State 24, Virginia 21
State QB Armstrong played four years at Virginia; he returned Friday and got a win.
Wolfpack kicked a 33-yard FG after two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties on Virginia gave NC State excellent field position.

— Wisconsin 38, Purdue 17
Badgers led 21-3 at halftime.
Wisconsin converted 12-18 third down plays.

— Boise State 34, San Diego State 31
Aztecs lost a fumble on the 1-yard line on their first possession, missed a 40-yard FG when game was 17-17.

— Air Force 45, San Jose State 20
Air Force outscored the Spartans 28-0 in the second half.
Flyboys ran the football for 403 yards.

— Seven starters are out for the Ravens this week; they host the Colts, who 40 years ago called Baltimore home. Rookie QB Richardson is out for the Colts; Gardner Minshew gets the nod under center.

— Andy Dalton will start at QB for Carolina when they visit the Seahawks Sunday; two of the three rookie QB’s who started in Week 1 are hurt already, and Houston QB Stroud has been put on an “arm management program” which probably means he has a sore arm already.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Major league leaders in runs scored:
143— Ronald Acuna
125— Freddie Freeman/Mookie Betts
122— Matt Olson
115— Marcus Semien
110— Austin Riley
109— Corbin Carroll

Quote of the Day
“I thought the play was dead. I was yelling at somebody else on the side and then the ball’s coming back my way. I said, ‘Dang, that ain’t supposed to happen.’ I’m lucky I didn’t get ran over.”
Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher, who was on the field while an Auburn player ran a punt back 67 yards for a TD.

Sunday’s quiz
What city hosts the Holiday Bowl every December?

Saturday’s quiz
Jose Canseco was the first major leaguer to hit 40+ home runs and steal 40+ bases in the same season, in 1988.

Friday’s quiz
49ers QB Brock Purdy played his college football at Iowa State.

*****************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday…….​

— Florida State 31, Clemson 24 OT
Seminoles end 7-game losing skid vs Clemson.
Clemson missed a 29-yard FG with 1:45 left in regulation, with score 24-all.
Tigers outgained Florida State 429-311.

— Ohio State 17, Notre Dame 14
Buckeyes scored on 1-yard TD run with 0:01 left.
Game-winning drive was 65 yards, took 1:26.
Ohio State converted 10-17 third down plays.

— LSU 34, Arkansas 31
LSU kicked 20-yard FG with 0:05 left for the win.
LSU also threw 49-yard TD pass with 0:30 left in first half.
Arkansas led game 13-3 in second quarter.

— Utah 14, UCLA 7
Utes scored on a pick-6 0:12 into the game.
UCLA didn’t score until there was 3:39 left in game.
Utah is 4-0, and their starting QB Rising still hasn’t played this year.

— Northwestern 37, Minnesota 34 OT
Minnesota led this game 31-10 after the third quarter.
Wildcats threw an 11-yard TD pass to tie game with 0:02 left.
Northwestern QB Bryant was 33-49/396 passing, with 4 TD’s.

— Indiana 29, Akron 27 OT
Each team had ball four times in overtime.
Akron tied game on a 71-yard TD run with 3:34 left.
Hoosiers were favored by 16.5 points.

— Upsets of the Week:
Central Michigan (+16) 34, South Alabama 30
Northwestern (+11) 37, Minnesota 34 OT
West Virginia (+6) 20, Texas Tech 13
Arkansas State (+6) 44, Southern Miss 37
Georgia State (+4.5) 30, Coastal Carolina 17

— Word of the Day: Jocularity— causing lighthearted laughter and amusement.

— Oregon 42, Colorado 6
Game was 35-0 at halftime.
Oregon QB Nix was 28-33/269 passing, with two TD’s.
Colorado ran 58 plays for 199 yards; they had 106 penalty yards.

— Central Michigan 34, South Alabama 30
Jaguars upset Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week, then went home and got upset here.
Chippewas scored winning TD on a 4-yard run with 0:13 left.
South Alabama led 14-0 after the first quarter.

— Texas State 35, Nevada 24
Nevada led 17-0 at half; they had a 98-yard pick-6.
Texas State outgained the Wolf Pack, 574-353
Both teams turned ball over three times.

— Marshall 24, Virginia Tech 17— Thundering Herd was favored at home, but it is still a bad look for an ACC team to lose to a Sun Belt team.

— Alabama 24, Ole Miss 10
Ole Miss led 7-6 at halftime.
Rebels were 3-14 on third down, 3-4 on fourth down.
Alabama QB Milroe was 17-21/225 passing, with a TD.

— Washington State 38, Oregon State 35
Wazzu led 35-14 after three quarters.
Coogs’ QB Ward was 28-34/404 passing, with four TD’s.
TV people played the Bill Withers’ song, Just the Two of Us, as the game went to a commercial, in reference to these schools being left behind by the rest of the Pac-12.