SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS 11-17
- Thread starter Danny Dice
- Start date
Matty O'Shea | CFB MoneyLine Double-Dime Bet
320 Michigan St. (+125) BetUS vs 319 Penn St.
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
336 Air Force -11.0 (-110) BetUS vs 335 San Diego St.
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
346 Kansas -26.0 (-110) SportBet vs 345 Iowa St.
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
331 Tulsa -14.5 (-110) SportBet vs 332 Army
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
363 LSU -19.5 (-110) BetUS vs 364 Mississippi
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
351 UCF -13.0 (-110) BetUS vs 352 SMU
Malinski comp
PICK: South Florida
Offered at: -6.5
REASON FOR PICK: 4* SOUTH FLORIDA over LOUISVILLE
In this week?s NCAA edition of GRIDLINES we focused on some of the emerging issues that the 12-game schedule and higher play counts are creating for defenses around the country, and here is an excellent setting to put that into play. A badly depleted Louisville defense that is being held together by a runner band right now not only has to face potentially its sixth bowl-bound opponent in seven games, but must do it on the road at a warm weather site that taxes that lack of depth even more. And for once their own strength, Brian Brohm and the passing game, may actually face an uphill battle, rather than dictating play. That helps to lead to a blowout in this one.
The Cardinals managed to hang around at West Virginia last week largely because the Mountaineers were sloppy with the ball ? they lost three fumbles in the second half, when a 17 point lead could have been blown wide open. That enabled Louisville to survive despite the fact that there were only 25 defensive players dressed for the game, and that DL Brandon Cox and Peanut Whitehead also went down, reducing the count to 23. They were so short of LB?s that much of the game was spent with five DB?s in the lineup, and now it appears that Rod Council, one of the keys in that secondary, will be the latest non-injury casualty for this unit (losing senior LB Willie Williams to suspension left a hole that has yet to be filled). That unit has to take on a fresh and hungry South Florida offense, one that exploded for 346 rushing yards and 582 of total offense at Syracuse last week despite the starters sitting out the fourth quarter. It will not be pretty.
The story of this is not just a gassed Louisville defense being exploited, however. Because of problems in the OL the offense has been reduced to Brohm and his receivers, with no real run threat. They are averaging only 74.6 overland yards per game in their last five outings, including only 37 at West Virginia (it was not just sacks impacting that total; the RB?s only averaged 2.3 per attempt on 18 tries). If you can not run the ball here, to slow down George Selvie and the USF pass rush, you are in for a long evening. The Bulls are #9 in the nation in pass efficiency defense and #1 in tackles for loss, creating matchup headaches for the Cardinals all the way around. Look for the fresher, deeper and more physical team to eventually break this game open, with the offense moving the ball at will in the second half, and Brohm unable to counter from behind.
Carlo Campanella comp
Game: Boston College at Clemson Nov 17 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: Clemson
Mel Stewart comp
PICK: Navy -15 (CFB Saturday
Power Sweep
NCAA
4* WVU
3* BYU and Clemson
2* Wisky, Washington, and Kansas
Underdog: NC St
NFL
4* GB
3* NE
2* Clev and Zona
Power ratings play: Pitt
Pro Stat Paly: Zona
Angles Play: Clev and Zona
System Play: Clev
(road team that lost by 3 or less as an away dog of 10 or more...1992-2006 15-4)
Dick Wiess
Terrible this clown is
5~13 last week
84-110 for the year
Zona -thurs
Nevada Friday
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Mich st
wv
cuse
ok
kan
boise
nd
lsu
Georgia ..best bet 4-7
Mizz
ohio st
clem
s fla
wisky
pitt
Mighty ! Quinn
8`10 last week
92-12
Ducks thurs
hawaii fri
Mich st
wv
conn
okk
kan
boise
duke best bet 6-5
lsu
kent
k st
ohio st
vt
bc
loui
wisky
rutgers
Burns Big 10 GOM
MICHIGAN (+3 or better)
Game: Ohio State University vs. Michigan Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Michigan Reason: I'm taking the points with MICHIGAN. The list of teams which have struggled the following game after suffering their first loss is a long one. Last week, after suffering their first loss, the Boston College Eagles lost outright vs. Maryland. Meanwhile, also last week, the Arizona State Sun Devils failed to cover vs. a banged-up UCLA team, after having suffered their first loss the previous week. There have been a ton of other "big name programs" and/or highly ranked teams which have also struggled (failed to cover) this season, the week after suffering their first loss. Some of them include LSU, South Florida, Florida, California, Clemson, Cincinnati, Rutgers and way back in September, Michigan. This week, it's Ohio State which is coming off its first loss of the season. While the Wolverines, who also lost last week, already learned how to "bounce back" from a loss, this is a new experience for the Buckeyes. I expect that to favor the Wolverines. Regardless of the situation, the Wolverines have thrived as underdogs. They were underdogs once this season and beat Penn State outright. Last season, they covered vs. these same Buckeyes (3 point loss at Ohio state) and won outright vs. underdogs vs. the Irish. (Note that two straight games in this series have now been decided by four points or less.) Looking back further and we find them at a highly profitable 7-1 ATS the last eight times they were getting points and 14-6 ATS the last 20. Regardless of who plays and who doesn't, look for the Wolverines to be fully focusued on the important task at hand while the Buckeyes get caught thinking about "what might have been." *Big 10 GOM
burns personal fave
CLEMSON (-10 or better)
Game: Boston College vs. Clemson Game Time: 11/17/2007 7:45:00 PM Prediction: Clemson Reason: I'm laying the points with CLEMSON. These teams have been going in opposite directions and I expect that to continue this evening. Boston College had been rather fortunate to get to 8-0. After reaching that lofty mark, the over-achieving Eagles had national championship on their minds. However, after losing by double-digits vs. Florida State, the Eagles lost by seven at Maryland last week. Conversely, the Tigers, who defeated both Maryland and Florida State, come in on a major roll. In fact, they're 4-0 their last four games winning by a combined score of 191-51! Most recently, the Tigers dominated defending conference champion Wake Forest 44-10. While the Eagles have outscored opponents by an average score of 25-19 on the road, the Tiger have crushed opponents by a 41.3-19.8 margin here at home. Boston College has achieved its 8-2 record largely due to a powerful passing attack, led by QB Matt Ryan. However, Ryan has struggled lately and on Saturday he'll be facing arguably the best secondary which he has seen all season. In fact, the Tigers are first in the league and third in the country in pass defense, surrendering only 162 yards to opponents through the air. While Ryan is arguably still the bigger name, Clemson's Cullen Harper has been the much better quarterback in recent weeks. Indeed, during the Tigers' four-game win streak, Harper has completed 77.1 percent of his passes for 902 yards and 12 touchdowns with only one interception. Harper's 154.1 passer rating for the season tops the ACC, while Ryan has dropped to fifth (129.8) after completing just 52.2 percent of his attempts in the last three games, throwing seven interceptions along with seven touchdowns. The Tigers have won nine of their last 10 home finales, when not facing rival South Carolina. Look for them to continue their excellent recent play as they avenge last season's loss and advance to the conference championship game with another double-digit victory *Personal Favorite
Burns #1 total of the week
UNDER cincinnati/west virginia
Game: West Virginia vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Game Time: 11/17/2007 7:45:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on West Virginia and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams feature highly explosive offenses and the betting public will be expecting a shootout. However, both teams also feature excellent defenses and I'm expecting it to be significantly lower-scoring than expected. West Virginia is allowing a mere 15 ppg on the road and 16.7 overall. That stout defense has led to the UNDER going 3-1 their last four road games, three of those games producing 45 combined points or less. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are allowing only 16.2 points per game and a miniscule 10.2 at home. In their most recent game, they held Connecticut to just three points and just 22 rushing yards. That brought the UNDER to 4-1 the Bearcats' last five games and 7-3 their last 10 home games which had an over/under line. Note that ALL 10 of those games produced 54 combined points or less and that they averaged only 34.8. Looking back further and we find that the Bearcats have also seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 30-12 their last 42 games (with an over/under line) played on turf. Additionally, the Bearcats have seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 49.5 to 56. During the same stretch, the Mountaineers have seen the UNDER go 13-5 when playing a road game with an over/under line in the same range. Look for those numbers to improve as the final combined score of this big game is lower than expected. *Total of the Week
DR BOB
4 Star Selection
****S. FLORIDA (-7.0) 39 Louisville 21
05:00 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Louisville is certainly playing better now than they were early in the season, as their defense has gone from atrocious to just worse than average while their offense continues to play well (although the rushing attack has disappeared due to offensive line injuries). But, even if I adjust for the fact that Louisville?s defense is playing better I still can?t justify a line of only 7 points and the situational analysis is strongly in favor of South Florida. Louisville has allowed 6.2 yards per play for the season (against teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense), but those bad numbers are skewed by two unbelievably bad efforts against bad offensive teams Middle Tennessee State (564 yards at 10.2 yppl) and Syracuse (474 yards at 8.2 yppl) early in the season. The new defensive schemes have since been digested by the players and Louisville has been just 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively in 6 games since the Syracuse debacle ? allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. South Florida?s offense has been only 0.4 yppl better than average for the season (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl), but they Bulls? attack has improved as the season has progressed and if I?m going to dismiss Louisville?s bad early defensive numbers then I should also be able to use South Florida?s more recent offensive numbers. Since week 5, which is the week I used as the beginning point for Louisville?s defensive rating, South Florida has been 0.7 yppl better than average offensively, so the Bulls have a 0.9 yppl advantage over Louisville?s defense (would have been 1.2 yppl better using full season stats instead of since week 5 for both teams). On the other side of the ball we have Louisville?s potent offense, which has averaged 6.2 yppl in 9 games against Division 1A competition (teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack), going up against a South Florida defense that is 1.1 yppl better than average in Division 1A games (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit). So, the Bulls? defense actually has a slight edge over Louisville?s offense and a pretty significant advantage over Louisville?s defense. My math model favors South Florida by 11 points in this game (it would have been 15 points using stats for the entire season for Louisville?s defense) and the Bulls apply to a very strong 45-8-2 ATS last home game situation while Louisville is in a letdown spot after their heartbreaking loss at West Virginia last week. That loss sets up the Cardinals in a negative 64-146-1 ATS letdown situation. The Bulls are also 12- 3 ATS as a home favorite of less than 14 points under coach Jim Leavitt. I?ll take South Florida in a 4-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less, for 3-Stars from -7 ? to -10 points and for 2-Stars at -10 ? or -11 points.
3 Star Selection
***WASHINGTON ST. (-2.5) 28 Oregon St. 18
03:30 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Following their 7-53 loss at Oregon Washington State coach Bill Doba used the Cougars? bye week to install a 3-4 defense (after years of playing the 4-3) to get more of his gifted, young linebackers on the field. In 3 games since the move to the 3-4 the Cougars have allowed just 4.4 yards per play and 14 points per game to UCLA, Cal, and Stanford ? who would combine to average 5.4 yppl and 27 points against an average defensive team. Washington State has gone from a worse than average defense (on a national scale) to a good defense and that unit should have little difficulty in defending a one-dimensional Oregon State offense that is 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average but has a pathetic pass attack that has been 1.8 yards per pass play worse than average without All- American WR Sammie Stroughter on the field. Stroughter played just two games at receiver (against Idaho State and Arizona State) and the Beavers had a good and balanced attack in those games while Stroughter racked up 262 receiving yards on 22 balls thrown to him. The Beavers have played 8 games without Stroughter at receiver and they?ve had just one game in which they averaged more than 5.0 yards per pass play and the two OSU quarterbacks have combined to average a pathetic 3.8 yppp without Stroughter to throw to and have been intercepted a combined 19 times in 10 games this season. Starting quarterback Sean Canfield is out for the Beavers, but backup Lyle Moevao hasn?t proven to be any worse on his 79 pass plays this season. Oregon State has had to depend on their very good defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team) to keep them competitive, but Washington State rates at 0.7 yppl better than average with Alex Brink behind center and without top back Dwight Tardy. The Cougars won?t be able to run without Tardy in the lineup (my math model projects just 3.1 yprp after adjusting for Tardy?s absence), but Brink (6.8 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB) is better than Oregon State?s pass defense, which rates at 0.6 yppp better than average. I expect Washington to come out throwing in this game with Oregon State down two defensive backs for the first half of this game (both suspended for the first half for a fight in the Washington game last week). Without even factoring that in my math model favors the Cougars by 10 ? points in this game and gives Washington State a 60.6% chance of covering at the current line of -2 points (based projected differential from the spread and the historical performance of my math model). I?ll take Washington State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ? points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 points.
2 Star Selection
**NEVADA 38 Hawaii (-7.0) 37
08:00 PM Pacific, 16-Nov-07
Nevada has had an extra week to prepare for their biggest home game of the season and experienced coach Chris Ault is 3-0 ATS at home after a bye week. The Wolf Pack also qualify in a very strong 37-4-1 ATS subset of a 95-31-3 ATS home off a bye angle while Hawaii applies to a negative 100-174-11 ATS road favorite situation and struggles to cover as a conference road favorite against decent teams (0-6 ATS as a conference road favorite against teams with a win percentage of .400 or better in 10 seasons under coach June Jones). Hawaii needed overtime periods to win at Louisiana Tech and at San Jose State this season and Reno, Nevada is a place where June Jones has not won or covered the spread despite being favored in 2 of 3 visits. The Warriors have played a very easy schedule so far this season and the only decent team that they faced prior to this game was last week?s narrow 37-30 home win over Fresno State as a 17 point favorite. Hawaii still has yet to face a team that rates as better than average offensively (based on my ratings) and the Warriors? mediocre defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yppl against an average team) will have trouble containing Nevada?s dynamic sophomore quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick came off the bench in game 5 to replace injured starter Nick Graziano and lit up a solid Fresno State defense for 384 passing yards and 60 rushing yards in just 3 quarters of play. Kaepernick followed that performance with 235 aerial yards (on just 29 pass plays) and 185 yards on 11 runs in a 67-69 overtime loss at Boise State as a 26 point dog. Overall, Kaepernick has been 0.9 yards per pass play better than average throwing the football (compensated for opponent?s faced) and has scampered for 519 yards on just 56 rushing plays in about 5 games of work - while throwing just 2 interceptions on 145 pass attempts. Hawaii?s potent attack is going to score points against a sub-par Nevada defense, but the Wolf Pack are certainly capable of keeping within striking range with their offense. My math favors Hawaii by 8 points, so the line is pretty fair, and the situation is strongly in favor of Nevada, so I?ll take Nevada in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 points or more.
2 Star Selection
**CLEMSON (-7.5) 35 Boston College 20
04:45 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Boston College, formerly a joke of a #2 in the BCS standings, is still an overrated team despite losing 2 straight games. Eagles? quarterback Matt Ryan got a lot of hype as a Heisman Trophy candidate, which also made no sense to me given that Ryan averaged a sub- par 6.9 yards per pass attempt last season and has averaged only 7.0 ypa this year (which is the national average). Ryan doesn?t get sacked much so his yards per pass play numbers are pretty good (6.6 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) and the Eagles? offense rates at 0.5 yards per play better than average (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl). That unit is at a disadvantage against a very good Clemson defense that is 1.2 yppp better than average (4.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppp against an average defense) and 0.8 yppl better than average (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl). The only quarterback to average more than 5.8 yppp against the Tigers was Maryland?s red-hot Chris Turner, who managed a modest 6.1 yppp against Clemson (Turner would average 7.5 yppp against an average team). My math model projects 5.5 yppp for Ryan in this game and the Eagles don?t have a running game to lean on when Ryan is not effective. The best thing about Boston College is their outstanding run defense, which has allowed just 2.9 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average defense), but most teams are smart enough to simply throw the ball against an Eagles? secondary that has allowed 6.1 yppp to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average defense. The Eagles faced only sub-par pass attacks until a couple of weeks ago, but they allowed 369 aerial yards at 7.9 yppp to a mediocre Florida State pass attack and then were lit up for 317 yards at 10.6 yppp by Chris Turner of Maryland last week. Clemson?s Cullen Harper is an above average passer (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp) and he doesn?t make many mistakes (just 4 interceptions all season). Clemson?s strong rushing attack will struggle against BC?s stout defensive front, but my math model projects 312 yards at 7.6 yppp for Harper. Overall, Clemson?s offense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average while BC?s defense is only 0.1 yppl better than average. The Tigers also have a 0.3 yppl advantage when Boston College has the ball and Clemson also has superior special teams and an advantage in projected turnovers. My math model favors Clemson by 12 points and Boston College applies to a negative 25-68-2 ATS situation. Teams like Boston College that start the season on a win streak can fall apart quickly after their first loss and are often overrated because of all the attention that the early season streak garnered. In fact, teams that start the season with 5 or more consecutive wins and then lose consecutive games are just 9-25-1 ATS in their next game if facing a conference opponent with a .500 or better record ? including 0-9 ATS if the teams started the season 7-0 or better before their 2 losses (as BC did). I?ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 ? points or less and for 3-Stars at -7 or less.
Strong Opinion
CENTRAL MICH (-13.0) 41 Eastern Mich 23
04:00 PM Pacific, 16-Nov-07
Central Michigan is unbeaten in MAC play this year and the Chippewas are 8-0 ATS at home the last 2 seasons (although they did lose a non-lined game to N Dakota St here) and should close out their home schedule in good fashion tonight. Eastern Michigan is 3-8 straight up and may be looking forward to the end of their season, as the Eagles apply to a negative 44-84-2 ATS last game road situation. Eastern Michigan also applies to a negative 22-62-1 ATS road underdog situation while Central Michigan applies to a solid 96- 47-4 ATS last home game angle. The technical analysis is certainly strong enough to play Central Michigan as a Best Bet, but my math model favors the Chippewas by only 10 ? points in this game and I?m not willing to give up any line value. Central Michigan is a still a profitable play overall and I?ll consider Central Michigan a Strong Opinion at -13 points or less and I?d make Central Michigan a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less.
Strong Opinion
RUTGERS (-11.5) 32 Pittsburgh 15
09:00 AM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Rutgers applies to a very strong 45-8-2 ATS last home game situation that has been very good to me over the years (12-0 the last 6 years since I discovered it). Unfortunately, the line on this game is too high as my math model favors Rutgers by only 8 points. Pittsburgh?s good defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) is a bit better than a Rutgers? offense that rates at 0.8 yppl better than average against Division 1A opponents. Rutgers posted big numbers against bad defensive teams early in the season, but the Scarlet Knights were only 0.6 yppl better than average against the 3 good defensive teams that they?ve faced, averaging 5.2 yppl against South Florida, West Virginia, and U Conn ? who would combine to allow 4.6 yppl to an average team. Rutgers has an even bigger advantage with their solid defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl) against Pitt?s horrible offense (0.9 yppl worse than average with Bostick at quarterback), so they certainly could win big given the good situation that they are in. I hate to not play that strong situation but I?ll consider Rutgers a Strong Opinion at -12 points or less and will only take Rutgers as a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
Strong Opinion
BUFFALO 31 Bowling Green (-1.0) 26
10:00 AM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Buffalo still isn?t getting the respect that they deserve despite being 4-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in conference play this year. The Bulls certainly shouldn?t be an underdog at home in this game. Buffalo does have some problems moving the ball on offense (I rate their attack at 0.7 yards per play worse than average after taking out their garbage yards in their blowout loss to Penn State), but quarterback Drew Willy hasn?t thrown an interception in any of the last 5 games and has tossed just 5 picks all season. Buffalo should move the ball at a pretty good clip in this game against a Bowling Green defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team ? so Buffalo has a slight edge over the Falcons? defense. Buffalo?s defense is pretty good for a MAC school, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team and that unit is just slightly worse than a Bowling Green offense that has averaged 5.7 yppl with Sheehan at quarterback against a schedule of bad defensive teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. These teams are even from the line of scrimmage, but Buffalo has an advantage in projected turnovers and in special teams and my math model favors the Bulls by 5 ? points. I?ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at -1 or better and for 2-Stars at +3 or more.
Strong Opinion
Utah St. 30 NEW MEXICO ST. (-9.5) 34
11:00 AM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
I?m a little upset at myself for not taking San Jose State as a Best Bet against New Mexico State last week, as my math model picked the Spartans to win that game easily as a 3 ? point favorite. Once again my math is squarely against the New Mexico State, who the oddsmakers continue to price as if they are better than they really are. Perhaps they are fooled by New Mexico State?s decent total yards differential of 424 yards to 434 yards allowed. However, total yards is not as significant of an indicator as yards per play and New Mexico State has been out-gained by an average of 5.6 yppl to 6.3 yppl despite facing a very easy schedule that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl while allowing 5.6 yppl. Utah State is 0-10 and riding a 16 game losing streak, but the Aggies know they have a chance at a win here and my math model suggests that they can win. My model does project New Mexico State with a significant edge in total yards and yards per play but New Mexico State has the nation?s worst special teams, which explains why they can be so close to even in total yards and be out-scored by an average of 12.2 points per game. Utah State has been out-scored by an average of 18.2 points per game but they?ve played a schedule that is 9 points better than the schedule that New Mexico State has played, which would make Utah State 3 points better if you just looked at point differential and schedule strength. My math actually favors New Mexico State by 2 ? points in this game and I would be on Utah State as a Best Bet if not for the fact that winless teams (0-7 or worse) are only 26-55-2 ATS when not an underdog of more than 10 points against a team that has won at least one game. That angle barely qualifies (since the line is pretty close to 10 points) and is not as significant as the line value favoring Utah State, so I?ll consider Utah State a Strong Opinion at +7 ? points or more and I?d take Utah State as a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 ? points or more.
Strong Opinion
Miami Fla 16 VIRGINIA TECH (-16.5) 26
12:30 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Miami was embarrassed 0-48 last week by Virginia in their Orange Bowl finale but don?t expect the Hurricanes to stay on the mat. That loss is not doubt the low point and it sets up the Hurricanes in one of my favorite situations ? an incredibly good 90-21-2 ATS blowout bounce back situation that is an every better 58-9-1 ATS if the team also has the revenge motive (as Miami does). Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is coming off a huge win over Florida State and the Hokies apply to a negative 21-64 ATS double-digit home favorite letdown situation this week. My math model favors Virginia Tech by 18 ? points and the situations combine to have a 63% chance of covering at a fair line. If Miami is a 63% play at +18 ? then they are a 56% play at +16 ?, which is not quite good enough to make them a Best Bet. The chance of covering rises to 59% at +17, however and that is the number at which I?d make Miami a Best Bet. Miami still has enough physical talent to compete with Virginia Tech and I?ll consider Miami-Florida a Strong Opinion at +15 points or more and I?d take Miami in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UTAH (-14.5) 32 New Mexico 12
02:30 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Utah is 6-0 straight up and has covered 5 straight games heading into this contest since starting quarterback Brian Johnson returned to the starting lineup after sitting out a few games with an injured shoulder. Johnson has been just mediocre throwing the football, but he doesn?t throw many interceptions and a mediocre offense that takes care of the ball is all the Utes need given how good their defense is. Utah has gone from good to great on defense in recent games and the Utes have allowed just 4.5 yards per play for the season (against teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). New Mexico is 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) and the Lobos were just shut out two weeks ago on the road by an equally good TCU stop unit. The Lobos do have an edge with Utah has the ball, as the Utes are just 0.1 yppl better than average with Johnson at quarterback while New Mexico?s defense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average. My math model favors Utah by 15 ? points, so there is a little bit of line value, and Utah applies to a number of very good home momentum situations with records of 146-70-4 ATS, 47-11 ATS, and 80-29-1 ATS. The only reason I am not making Utah a Best Bet is because New Mexico is 28-4 ATS from game 7 on when not favored by less than 3 points or getting points (in regular season games) since Rocky Long has been the head coach. Long?s team hasn?t improved in the second half of the season as they normally do (0-4 ATS from game 7 on this year), but I don?t want to buck that team trend in a Best Bet. I?ll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at -16 points or less.
Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI 27 West Virginia (-6.5) 28
04:45 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Cincinnati lived off of turnovers early in the season, but the Bearcats are improving on both sides of the ball and don?t need the turnover advantage to be competitive in this game. Cincinnati?s offense has thrived in recent weeks, as Ben Mauk has been very effective throwing the football against good defensive teams Pitt, South Florida and Connecticut. For the season Mauk has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average team and the Bearcats? attack is 0.6 yards per play better than average with Mauk at quarterback. Cincinnati?s defense is just 0.4 yppl better than average but the Bearcats are particularly good defending the run (4.0 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yprp) and that strength matches up well with the run-oriented West Virginia offense. The Mountaineers are one of the elite teams in the nation, rating at 1.1 yppl better than average on offense and 1.0 yppl better than average defensively, but my math model favors West Virginia by just 5 points in this game. The reason for siding with Cincinnati is a number of very strong situations that favor the Bearcats in this game. Cincy applies to a 133-48- 6 ATS home momentum situation while West Virginia applies to a negative 28-73-1 ATS road letdown situation. The only thing keeping me from making Cincinnati a Best Bet is West Virginia?s history of success on the road. The Mounties are now 23-7 ATS on the road since the 2002 season, including 16-4 ATS as a road favorite. That team trend is not as significant as the strong general situations that favor Cincy in this game and I?ll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I?d take Cincinnati in a 2- Star Best Bet at +7 points or more (-1.15 odds or better).
Robert Ferringo
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
4.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #368 Kansas State (+7.5) over Missouri (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Note: This is our Big 12 Game of the Year.
I think Missouri gets caught looking ahead here against a team that is fuming after giving up 70+ points last week. Manhattan is a tough place to lay a touchdown in and I think the Wildcats win this one outright. The Tigers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six trips there.
4.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #370 Michigan (+4) over Ohio State (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 17)
Note: This is our Big 10 Game of the Year.
Chad Henne and Mike Hart are going to play and they?re going to play well. Whatever letdown effect Michigan may be feeling after a loss at Wisconsin, it has to be 10 times as bad for the Buckeyes who had dreams of a national championship. I?ll take a home dog in a rivalry like this, especially since the Wolverines have been eyeing this game since they lost to Appalachian State.
4-UNIT PLAY. Take #337 Mississippi State (+11) over Arkansas (2 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Mississippi State continues to be undervalued and I think their physical front seven will be able to slow down the one-dimensional Arkansas attack. The Razorbacks are in a prime letdown spot ? they are 2-8 ATS after losing by more than 20 points ? and could be looking ahead to a prime matchup with LSU next weekend. Mississippi State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 road games and 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road dog. The underdog is a stellar 10-2 ATS in this series and I think the Bulldogs take an early lead before succumbing late in a close contest.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #354 Rice (-2) over Tulane (3 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Tulane is 8-18 ATS as an underdog and 5-16 ATS on turf. Rive is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 conference games and I think they manage their third consecutive win this week.
2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #322 Cincinnati (+6.5) over West Virginia (7:45 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
The Bearcats are one of the few teams in the country that are physical enough in their front seven to suppress the Mountaineers running attack. WVU has owned this series over the past 15 years but now Cincinnati has some horses to settle the score. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS as an underdog and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall. This sets up in a situation similar to when they trounced Rutgers last year. And while I don?t think they are going to run away with this one I can see them winning outright.
2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #371 Miami (+17) over Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
The Hurricanes are 8-1 as an underdog after scoring less than 14 points and 7-1 ATS after allowing 35 or more points. Miami is a bad team, but I think this spread is a bit generous for a Va. Tech team that can have problems scoring. ACC underdogs have hit at a ridiculous clip this season so we?re going to hop on this one here.
2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #326 Indiana (+2.5) over Purdue (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Note: This was originally posted as a 2-Unit Play at 6 p.m. EST. It was intended to be a 2.5-Unit Play so it has been upgraded at 6:06 p.m. EST. I apologize for any inconvenience.
Indiana's entire season has come down to this game and I think they win it on emotion alone. We have a home underdog in a rivalry game here and this is the win that the Hoosiers have been looking for since their coach tragically died during the offseason. The Hoosiers win this one outright to get themselves to a 12th game - a bowl game.
Red Sheet 11/15
Clem37-17 ov BC 89
Kan 58-13 ov I St 89
Temple 27-17 ov Kent 88
NCST 24-23 ov WF 88
Ark 41-14 ov Miss St 88
Gator Report (free)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA (Saturday): Play Against NCAA road underdogs after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against an opponent after a win by 17 or more points, 46-12 ATS last five seasons. PLAY: UTAH
kodiak
10 mich ml +155
10 mich +4
5 tt o 66
5 kan st +7
5 mich st +3
5 cinc +7 -120
5 buff ml (no ml listed, so +1 -110)
MARC LAWRENCE CFB PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB play
This week play for the PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB from Marc Lawrence:
11/17/07 - CFB
NOT SO FOND FAREWELL
PLAY AGAINST any CFB conference favorite in its last game of the
season off BB SUATS wins, with the last as a dog, if they covered the
spread by > 11 points in their last game and are facing a > .333
opponent that was a dog or favorite < 20 points in its last game.
ATS W-L Record Since 1990: 0-21
PLAY AGAINST: Illinois
Rationale: Letdowns occur most often to team that are fat and
content, especially in season finales. Bring them in against a
formidable foe and they really fall hard.
Northcoast Infomercial
Monday
See SPS poipounder's first post above
Tuesday
Underdog POW
Utep +3.5
Wednesday
Economy Club ( #2 rated play)
NC St. +6
Thursday
Totals POW
Jets under 40.5
Conference USA/Independent POW
Memphis
Doc"s Sports - College
4* Nev +7
4* C Mich -13
4* Cinc +6.5
4* Iowa St +26
4* Minn +14
4* Nd -6
4* Buffalo +1
5* Clemson -7.5
5* Mich St +2.5
6* Indiana +2.5
Marc Lawrence Midweek Alert
College Nevada over Hawaii by 3
NC State over Wake Forest by 6
Pro Tampa Bay over Atalnta by 10
kodiak
10 mich ml +155
10 mich +4
5 tt o 66
5 kan st +7
5 mich st +3
5 cinc +7 -120
5 buff ml (no ml listed, so +1 -110)
Spylock
1 Ohio State
1 U Conn
These guys are having a tough year.
gary greene bluebook
arkansas (-11) top play in college foots.
selective
LSU/Ole Miss Under 54 for 5 units
Michigan +4.5 for 4 units
S-Miss/Utep Over 66 for 4 units
Minnesota +14 for 4 units
COMPS:
Alex Smart comp
Florida State -7.0
Ohio State at Michigan
By: Totals 4 U
Take Ohio State/Michigan Over the Total of 49 1/2 points to improve your season article mark to 9-3.
Maryland at Florida State
By: Mike Wynn
There are no stand-out trends to hang our hats on here, but I?m going to side with Florida St ?7. Drew Watherford is probable at the time of this write up, and I?ll lay it as long as he is healthy. Maryland QB Turner is making his first real tough road start, and with the Seminoles' ability to dominate in the trenches, I think he?ll struggle without a run game to fall back on. We?re on a 6-1 run here on the Locker Room Report and we?ll take Florida St to get us to 7-1.
Boston College at Clemson
By: Dr. Vegas
Free winner from Dr. Vegas: Take Clemson -7 over Boston College.
West Virginia at Cincinnati
By: Spike Measer / Big Time Sports
West Virginia / Cincinnati Over
Oklahoma at Texas Tech
By: Hawkeye Sports
I like Oklahoma in this one -8 over the Red Raiders. Hit it and hit it hard, because as of right now this is my favorite game of the weekend!
Missouri at Kansas State
By: The Nevada Sharpshooter
Take Missouri -7 over Kansas St.
Kentucky at Georgia
By: The Scout
Georgia -7? over Kentucky
Valley Sports comp
NCAA Football
LSU Over Mississippi
Nelly's Sportsline
Free Pick: Connecticut -19 (-110)
Steve Zukiel
Free Pick: Temple +2 (-110)
320 Michigan St. (+125) BetUS vs 319 Penn St.
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
336 Air Force -11.0 (-110) BetUS vs 335 San Diego St.
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
346 Kansas -26.0 (-110) SportBet vs 345 Iowa St.
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
331 Tulsa -14.5 (-110) SportBet vs 332 Army
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
363 LSU -19.5 (-110) BetUS vs 364 Mississippi
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
351 UCF -13.0 (-110) BetUS vs 352 SMU
Malinski comp
PICK: South Florida
Offered at: -6.5
REASON FOR PICK: 4* SOUTH FLORIDA over LOUISVILLE
In this week?s NCAA edition of GRIDLINES we focused on some of the emerging issues that the 12-game schedule and higher play counts are creating for defenses around the country, and here is an excellent setting to put that into play. A badly depleted Louisville defense that is being held together by a runner band right now not only has to face potentially its sixth bowl-bound opponent in seven games, but must do it on the road at a warm weather site that taxes that lack of depth even more. And for once their own strength, Brian Brohm and the passing game, may actually face an uphill battle, rather than dictating play. That helps to lead to a blowout in this one.
The Cardinals managed to hang around at West Virginia last week largely because the Mountaineers were sloppy with the ball ? they lost three fumbles in the second half, when a 17 point lead could have been blown wide open. That enabled Louisville to survive despite the fact that there were only 25 defensive players dressed for the game, and that DL Brandon Cox and Peanut Whitehead also went down, reducing the count to 23. They were so short of LB?s that much of the game was spent with five DB?s in the lineup, and now it appears that Rod Council, one of the keys in that secondary, will be the latest non-injury casualty for this unit (losing senior LB Willie Williams to suspension left a hole that has yet to be filled). That unit has to take on a fresh and hungry South Florida offense, one that exploded for 346 rushing yards and 582 of total offense at Syracuse last week despite the starters sitting out the fourth quarter. It will not be pretty.
The story of this is not just a gassed Louisville defense being exploited, however. Because of problems in the OL the offense has been reduced to Brohm and his receivers, with no real run threat. They are averaging only 74.6 overland yards per game in their last five outings, including only 37 at West Virginia (it was not just sacks impacting that total; the RB?s only averaged 2.3 per attempt on 18 tries). If you can not run the ball here, to slow down George Selvie and the USF pass rush, you are in for a long evening. The Bulls are #9 in the nation in pass efficiency defense and #1 in tackles for loss, creating matchup headaches for the Cardinals all the way around. Look for the fresher, deeper and more physical team to eventually break this game open, with the offense moving the ball at will in the second half, and Brohm unable to counter from behind.
Carlo Campanella comp
Game: Boston College at Clemson Nov 17 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: Clemson
Mel Stewart comp
PICK: Navy -15 (CFB Saturday
Power Sweep
NCAA
4* WVU
3* BYU and Clemson
2* Wisky, Washington, and Kansas
Underdog: NC St
NFL
4* GB
3* NE
2* Clev and Zona
Power ratings play: Pitt
Pro Stat Paly: Zona
Angles Play: Clev and Zona
System Play: Clev
(road team that lost by 3 or less as an away dog of 10 or more...1992-2006 15-4)
Dick Wiess
Terrible this clown is
5~13 last week
84-110 for the year
Zona -thurs
Nevada Friday
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mich st
wv
cuse
ok
kan
boise
nd
lsu
Georgia ..best bet 4-7
Mizz
ohio st
clem
s fla
wisky
pitt
Mighty ! Quinn
8`10 last week
92-12
Ducks thurs
hawaii fri
Mich st
wv
conn
okk
kan
boise
duke best bet 6-5
lsu
kent
k st
ohio st
vt
bc
loui
wisky
rutgers
Burns Big 10 GOM
MICHIGAN (+3 or better)
Game: Ohio State University vs. Michigan Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Michigan Reason: I'm taking the points with MICHIGAN. The list of teams which have struggled the following game after suffering their first loss is a long one. Last week, after suffering their first loss, the Boston College Eagles lost outright vs. Maryland. Meanwhile, also last week, the Arizona State Sun Devils failed to cover vs. a banged-up UCLA team, after having suffered their first loss the previous week. There have been a ton of other "big name programs" and/or highly ranked teams which have also struggled (failed to cover) this season, the week after suffering their first loss. Some of them include LSU, South Florida, Florida, California, Clemson, Cincinnati, Rutgers and way back in September, Michigan. This week, it's Ohio State which is coming off its first loss of the season. While the Wolverines, who also lost last week, already learned how to "bounce back" from a loss, this is a new experience for the Buckeyes. I expect that to favor the Wolverines. Regardless of the situation, the Wolverines have thrived as underdogs. They were underdogs once this season and beat Penn State outright. Last season, they covered vs. these same Buckeyes (3 point loss at Ohio state) and won outright vs. underdogs vs. the Irish. (Note that two straight games in this series have now been decided by four points or less.) Looking back further and we find them at a highly profitable 7-1 ATS the last eight times they were getting points and 14-6 ATS the last 20. Regardless of who plays and who doesn't, look for the Wolverines to be fully focusued on the important task at hand while the Buckeyes get caught thinking about "what might have been." *Big 10 GOM
burns personal fave
CLEMSON (-10 or better)
Game: Boston College vs. Clemson Game Time: 11/17/2007 7:45:00 PM Prediction: Clemson Reason: I'm laying the points with CLEMSON. These teams have been going in opposite directions and I expect that to continue this evening. Boston College had been rather fortunate to get to 8-0. After reaching that lofty mark, the over-achieving Eagles had national championship on their minds. However, after losing by double-digits vs. Florida State, the Eagles lost by seven at Maryland last week. Conversely, the Tigers, who defeated both Maryland and Florida State, come in on a major roll. In fact, they're 4-0 their last four games winning by a combined score of 191-51! Most recently, the Tigers dominated defending conference champion Wake Forest 44-10. While the Eagles have outscored opponents by an average score of 25-19 on the road, the Tiger have crushed opponents by a 41.3-19.8 margin here at home. Boston College has achieved its 8-2 record largely due to a powerful passing attack, led by QB Matt Ryan. However, Ryan has struggled lately and on Saturday he'll be facing arguably the best secondary which he has seen all season. In fact, the Tigers are first in the league and third in the country in pass defense, surrendering only 162 yards to opponents through the air. While Ryan is arguably still the bigger name, Clemson's Cullen Harper has been the much better quarterback in recent weeks. Indeed, during the Tigers' four-game win streak, Harper has completed 77.1 percent of his passes for 902 yards and 12 touchdowns with only one interception. Harper's 154.1 passer rating for the season tops the ACC, while Ryan has dropped to fifth (129.8) after completing just 52.2 percent of his attempts in the last three games, throwing seven interceptions along with seven touchdowns. The Tigers have won nine of their last 10 home finales, when not facing rival South Carolina. Look for them to continue their excellent recent play as they avenge last season's loss and advance to the conference championship game with another double-digit victory *Personal Favorite
Burns #1 total of the week
UNDER cincinnati/west virginia
Game: West Virginia vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Game Time: 11/17/2007 7:45:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on West Virginia and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams feature highly explosive offenses and the betting public will be expecting a shootout. However, both teams also feature excellent defenses and I'm expecting it to be significantly lower-scoring than expected. West Virginia is allowing a mere 15 ppg on the road and 16.7 overall. That stout defense has led to the UNDER going 3-1 their last four road games, three of those games producing 45 combined points or less. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are allowing only 16.2 points per game and a miniscule 10.2 at home. In their most recent game, they held Connecticut to just three points and just 22 rushing yards. That brought the UNDER to 4-1 the Bearcats' last five games and 7-3 their last 10 home games which had an over/under line. Note that ALL 10 of those games produced 54 combined points or less and that they averaged only 34.8. Looking back further and we find that the Bearcats have also seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 30-12 their last 42 games (with an over/under line) played on turf. Additionally, the Bearcats have seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 49.5 to 56. During the same stretch, the Mountaineers have seen the UNDER go 13-5 when playing a road game with an over/under line in the same range. Look for those numbers to improve as the final combined score of this big game is lower than expected. *Total of the Week
DR BOB
4 Star Selection
****S. FLORIDA (-7.0) 39 Louisville 21
05:00 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Louisville is certainly playing better now than they were early in the season, as their defense has gone from atrocious to just worse than average while their offense continues to play well (although the rushing attack has disappeared due to offensive line injuries). But, even if I adjust for the fact that Louisville?s defense is playing better I still can?t justify a line of only 7 points and the situational analysis is strongly in favor of South Florida. Louisville has allowed 6.2 yards per play for the season (against teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense), but those bad numbers are skewed by two unbelievably bad efforts against bad offensive teams Middle Tennessee State (564 yards at 10.2 yppl) and Syracuse (474 yards at 8.2 yppl) early in the season. The new defensive schemes have since been digested by the players and Louisville has been just 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively in 6 games since the Syracuse debacle ? allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. South Florida?s offense has been only 0.4 yppl better than average for the season (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl), but they Bulls? attack has improved as the season has progressed and if I?m going to dismiss Louisville?s bad early defensive numbers then I should also be able to use South Florida?s more recent offensive numbers. Since week 5, which is the week I used as the beginning point for Louisville?s defensive rating, South Florida has been 0.7 yppl better than average offensively, so the Bulls have a 0.9 yppl advantage over Louisville?s defense (would have been 1.2 yppl better using full season stats instead of since week 5 for both teams). On the other side of the ball we have Louisville?s potent offense, which has averaged 6.2 yppl in 9 games against Division 1A competition (teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack), going up against a South Florida defense that is 1.1 yppl better than average in Division 1A games (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit). So, the Bulls? defense actually has a slight edge over Louisville?s offense and a pretty significant advantage over Louisville?s defense. My math model favors South Florida by 11 points in this game (it would have been 15 points using stats for the entire season for Louisville?s defense) and the Bulls apply to a very strong 45-8-2 ATS last home game situation while Louisville is in a letdown spot after their heartbreaking loss at West Virginia last week. That loss sets up the Cardinals in a negative 64-146-1 ATS letdown situation. The Bulls are also 12- 3 ATS as a home favorite of less than 14 points under coach Jim Leavitt. I?ll take South Florida in a 4-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less, for 3-Stars from -7 ? to -10 points and for 2-Stars at -10 ? or -11 points.
3 Star Selection
***WASHINGTON ST. (-2.5) 28 Oregon St. 18
03:30 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Following their 7-53 loss at Oregon Washington State coach Bill Doba used the Cougars? bye week to install a 3-4 defense (after years of playing the 4-3) to get more of his gifted, young linebackers on the field. In 3 games since the move to the 3-4 the Cougars have allowed just 4.4 yards per play and 14 points per game to UCLA, Cal, and Stanford ? who would combine to average 5.4 yppl and 27 points against an average defensive team. Washington State has gone from a worse than average defense (on a national scale) to a good defense and that unit should have little difficulty in defending a one-dimensional Oregon State offense that is 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average but has a pathetic pass attack that has been 1.8 yards per pass play worse than average without All- American WR Sammie Stroughter on the field. Stroughter played just two games at receiver (against Idaho State and Arizona State) and the Beavers had a good and balanced attack in those games while Stroughter racked up 262 receiving yards on 22 balls thrown to him. The Beavers have played 8 games without Stroughter at receiver and they?ve had just one game in which they averaged more than 5.0 yards per pass play and the two OSU quarterbacks have combined to average a pathetic 3.8 yppp without Stroughter to throw to and have been intercepted a combined 19 times in 10 games this season. Starting quarterback Sean Canfield is out for the Beavers, but backup Lyle Moevao hasn?t proven to be any worse on his 79 pass plays this season. Oregon State has had to depend on their very good defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team) to keep them competitive, but Washington State rates at 0.7 yppl better than average with Alex Brink behind center and without top back Dwight Tardy. The Cougars won?t be able to run without Tardy in the lineup (my math model projects just 3.1 yprp after adjusting for Tardy?s absence), but Brink (6.8 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB) is better than Oregon State?s pass defense, which rates at 0.6 yppp better than average. I expect Washington to come out throwing in this game with Oregon State down two defensive backs for the first half of this game (both suspended for the first half for a fight in the Washington game last week). Without even factoring that in my math model favors the Cougars by 10 ? points in this game and gives Washington State a 60.6% chance of covering at the current line of -2 points (based projected differential from the spread and the historical performance of my math model). I?ll take Washington State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ? points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 points.
2 Star Selection
**NEVADA 38 Hawaii (-7.0) 37
08:00 PM Pacific, 16-Nov-07
Nevada has had an extra week to prepare for their biggest home game of the season and experienced coach Chris Ault is 3-0 ATS at home after a bye week. The Wolf Pack also qualify in a very strong 37-4-1 ATS subset of a 95-31-3 ATS home off a bye angle while Hawaii applies to a negative 100-174-11 ATS road favorite situation and struggles to cover as a conference road favorite against decent teams (0-6 ATS as a conference road favorite against teams with a win percentage of .400 or better in 10 seasons under coach June Jones). Hawaii needed overtime periods to win at Louisiana Tech and at San Jose State this season and Reno, Nevada is a place where June Jones has not won or covered the spread despite being favored in 2 of 3 visits. The Warriors have played a very easy schedule so far this season and the only decent team that they faced prior to this game was last week?s narrow 37-30 home win over Fresno State as a 17 point favorite. Hawaii still has yet to face a team that rates as better than average offensively (based on my ratings) and the Warriors? mediocre defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yppl against an average team) will have trouble containing Nevada?s dynamic sophomore quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick came off the bench in game 5 to replace injured starter Nick Graziano and lit up a solid Fresno State defense for 384 passing yards and 60 rushing yards in just 3 quarters of play. Kaepernick followed that performance with 235 aerial yards (on just 29 pass plays) and 185 yards on 11 runs in a 67-69 overtime loss at Boise State as a 26 point dog. Overall, Kaepernick has been 0.9 yards per pass play better than average throwing the football (compensated for opponent?s faced) and has scampered for 519 yards on just 56 rushing plays in about 5 games of work - while throwing just 2 interceptions on 145 pass attempts. Hawaii?s potent attack is going to score points against a sub-par Nevada defense, but the Wolf Pack are certainly capable of keeping within striking range with their offense. My math favors Hawaii by 8 points, so the line is pretty fair, and the situation is strongly in favor of Nevada, so I?ll take Nevada in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 points or more.
2 Star Selection
**CLEMSON (-7.5) 35 Boston College 20
04:45 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Boston College, formerly a joke of a #2 in the BCS standings, is still an overrated team despite losing 2 straight games. Eagles? quarterback Matt Ryan got a lot of hype as a Heisman Trophy candidate, which also made no sense to me given that Ryan averaged a sub- par 6.9 yards per pass attempt last season and has averaged only 7.0 ypa this year (which is the national average). Ryan doesn?t get sacked much so his yards per pass play numbers are pretty good (6.6 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) and the Eagles? offense rates at 0.5 yards per play better than average (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl). That unit is at a disadvantage against a very good Clemson defense that is 1.2 yppp better than average (4.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppp against an average defense) and 0.8 yppl better than average (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl). The only quarterback to average more than 5.8 yppp against the Tigers was Maryland?s red-hot Chris Turner, who managed a modest 6.1 yppp against Clemson (Turner would average 7.5 yppp against an average team). My math model projects 5.5 yppp for Ryan in this game and the Eagles don?t have a running game to lean on when Ryan is not effective. The best thing about Boston College is their outstanding run defense, which has allowed just 2.9 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average defense), but most teams are smart enough to simply throw the ball against an Eagles? secondary that has allowed 6.1 yppp to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average defense. The Eagles faced only sub-par pass attacks until a couple of weeks ago, but they allowed 369 aerial yards at 7.9 yppp to a mediocre Florida State pass attack and then were lit up for 317 yards at 10.6 yppp by Chris Turner of Maryland last week. Clemson?s Cullen Harper is an above average passer (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp) and he doesn?t make many mistakes (just 4 interceptions all season). Clemson?s strong rushing attack will struggle against BC?s stout defensive front, but my math model projects 312 yards at 7.6 yppp for Harper. Overall, Clemson?s offense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average while BC?s defense is only 0.1 yppl better than average. The Tigers also have a 0.3 yppl advantage when Boston College has the ball and Clemson also has superior special teams and an advantage in projected turnovers. My math model favors Clemson by 12 points and Boston College applies to a negative 25-68-2 ATS situation. Teams like Boston College that start the season on a win streak can fall apart quickly after their first loss and are often overrated because of all the attention that the early season streak garnered. In fact, teams that start the season with 5 or more consecutive wins and then lose consecutive games are just 9-25-1 ATS in their next game if facing a conference opponent with a .500 or better record ? including 0-9 ATS if the teams started the season 7-0 or better before their 2 losses (as BC did). I?ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 ? points or less and for 3-Stars at -7 or less.
Strong Opinion
CENTRAL MICH (-13.0) 41 Eastern Mich 23
04:00 PM Pacific, 16-Nov-07
Central Michigan is unbeaten in MAC play this year and the Chippewas are 8-0 ATS at home the last 2 seasons (although they did lose a non-lined game to N Dakota St here) and should close out their home schedule in good fashion tonight. Eastern Michigan is 3-8 straight up and may be looking forward to the end of their season, as the Eagles apply to a negative 44-84-2 ATS last game road situation. Eastern Michigan also applies to a negative 22-62-1 ATS road underdog situation while Central Michigan applies to a solid 96- 47-4 ATS last home game angle. The technical analysis is certainly strong enough to play Central Michigan as a Best Bet, but my math model favors the Chippewas by only 10 ? points in this game and I?m not willing to give up any line value. Central Michigan is a still a profitable play overall and I?ll consider Central Michigan a Strong Opinion at -13 points or less and I?d make Central Michigan a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less.
Strong Opinion
RUTGERS (-11.5) 32 Pittsburgh 15
09:00 AM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Rutgers applies to a very strong 45-8-2 ATS last home game situation that has been very good to me over the years (12-0 the last 6 years since I discovered it). Unfortunately, the line on this game is too high as my math model favors Rutgers by only 8 points. Pittsburgh?s good defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) is a bit better than a Rutgers? offense that rates at 0.8 yppl better than average against Division 1A opponents. Rutgers posted big numbers against bad defensive teams early in the season, but the Scarlet Knights were only 0.6 yppl better than average against the 3 good defensive teams that they?ve faced, averaging 5.2 yppl against South Florida, West Virginia, and U Conn ? who would combine to allow 4.6 yppl to an average team. Rutgers has an even bigger advantage with their solid defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl) against Pitt?s horrible offense (0.9 yppl worse than average with Bostick at quarterback), so they certainly could win big given the good situation that they are in. I hate to not play that strong situation but I?ll consider Rutgers a Strong Opinion at -12 points or less and will only take Rutgers as a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
Strong Opinion
BUFFALO 31 Bowling Green (-1.0) 26
10:00 AM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Buffalo still isn?t getting the respect that they deserve despite being 4-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in conference play this year. The Bulls certainly shouldn?t be an underdog at home in this game. Buffalo does have some problems moving the ball on offense (I rate their attack at 0.7 yards per play worse than average after taking out their garbage yards in their blowout loss to Penn State), but quarterback Drew Willy hasn?t thrown an interception in any of the last 5 games and has tossed just 5 picks all season. Buffalo should move the ball at a pretty good clip in this game against a Bowling Green defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team ? so Buffalo has a slight edge over the Falcons? defense. Buffalo?s defense is pretty good for a MAC school, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team and that unit is just slightly worse than a Bowling Green offense that has averaged 5.7 yppl with Sheehan at quarterback against a schedule of bad defensive teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. These teams are even from the line of scrimmage, but Buffalo has an advantage in projected turnovers and in special teams and my math model favors the Bulls by 5 ? points. I?ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at -1 or better and for 2-Stars at +3 or more.
Strong Opinion
Utah St. 30 NEW MEXICO ST. (-9.5) 34
11:00 AM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
I?m a little upset at myself for not taking San Jose State as a Best Bet against New Mexico State last week, as my math model picked the Spartans to win that game easily as a 3 ? point favorite. Once again my math is squarely against the New Mexico State, who the oddsmakers continue to price as if they are better than they really are. Perhaps they are fooled by New Mexico State?s decent total yards differential of 424 yards to 434 yards allowed. However, total yards is not as significant of an indicator as yards per play and New Mexico State has been out-gained by an average of 5.6 yppl to 6.3 yppl despite facing a very easy schedule that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl while allowing 5.6 yppl. Utah State is 0-10 and riding a 16 game losing streak, but the Aggies know they have a chance at a win here and my math model suggests that they can win. My model does project New Mexico State with a significant edge in total yards and yards per play but New Mexico State has the nation?s worst special teams, which explains why they can be so close to even in total yards and be out-scored by an average of 12.2 points per game. Utah State has been out-scored by an average of 18.2 points per game but they?ve played a schedule that is 9 points better than the schedule that New Mexico State has played, which would make Utah State 3 points better if you just looked at point differential and schedule strength. My math actually favors New Mexico State by 2 ? points in this game and I would be on Utah State as a Best Bet if not for the fact that winless teams (0-7 or worse) are only 26-55-2 ATS when not an underdog of more than 10 points against a team that has won at least one game. That angle barely qualifies (since the line is pretty close to 10 points) and is not as significant as the line value favoring Utah State, so I?ll consider Utah State a Strong Opinion at +7 ? points or more and I?d take Utah State as a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 ? points or more.
Strong Opinion
Miami Fla 16 VIRGINIA TECH (-16.5) 26
12:30 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Miami was embarrassed 0-48 last week by Virginia in their Orange Bowl finale but don?t expect the Hurricanes to stay on the mat. That loss is not doubt the low point and it sets up the Hurricanes in one of my favorite situations ? an incredibly good 90-21-2 ATS blowout bounce back situation that is an every better 58-9-1 ATS if the team also has the revenge motive (as Miami does). Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is coming off a huge win over Florida State and the Hokies apply to a negative 21-64 ATS double-digit home favorite letdown situation this week. My math model favors Virginia Tech by 18 ? points and the situations combine to have a 63% chance of covering at a fair line. If Miami is a 63% play at +18 ? then they are a 56% play at +16 ?, which is not quite good enough to make them a Best Bet. The chance of covering rises to 59% at +17, however and that is the number at which I?d make Miami a Best Bet. Miami still has enough physical talent to compete with Virginia Tech and I?ll consider Miami-Florida a Strong Opinion at +15 points or more and I?d take Miami in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UTAH (-14.5) 32 New Mexico 12
02:30 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Utah is 6-0 straight up and has covered 5 straight games heading into this contest since starting quarterback Brian Johnson returned to the starting lineup after sitting out a few games with an injured shoulder. Johnson has been just mediocre throwing the football, but he doesn?t throw many interceptions and a mediocre offense that takes care of the ball is all the Utes need given how good their defense is. Utah has gone from good to great on defense in recent games and the Utes have allowed just 4.5 yards per play for the season (against teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). New Mexico is 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) and the Lobos were just shut out two weeks ago on the road by an equally good TCU stop unit. The Lobos do have an edge with Utah has the ball, as the Utes are just 0.1 yppl better than average with Johnson at quarterback while New Mexico?s defense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average. My math model favors Utah by 15 ? points, so there is a little bit of line value, and Utah applies to a number of very good home momentum situations with records of 146-70-4 ATS, 47-11 ATS, and 80-29-1 ATS. The only reason I am not making Utah a Best Bet is because New Mexico is 28-4 ATS from game 7 on when not favored by less than 3 points or getting points (in regular season games) since Rocky Long has been the head coach. Long?s team hasn?t improved in the second half of the season as they normally do (0-4 ATS from game 7 on this year), but I don?t want to buck that team trend in a Best Bet. I?ll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at -16 points or less.
Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI 27 West Virginia (-6.5) 28
04:45 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07
Cincinnati lived off of turnovers early in the season, but the Bearcats are improving on both sides of the ball and don?t need the turnover advantage to be competitive in this game. Cincinnati?s offense has thrived in recent weeks, as Ben Mauk has been very effective throwing the football against good defensive teams Pitt, South Florida and Connecticut. For the season Mauk has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average team and the Bearcats? attack is 0.6 yards per play better than average with Mauk at quarterback. Cincinnati?s defense is just 0.4 yppl better than average but the Bearcats are particularly good defending the run (4.0 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yprp) and that strength matches up well with the run-oriented West Virginia offense. The Mountaineers are one of the elite teams in the nation, rating at 1.1 yppl better than average on offense and 1.0 yppl better than average defensively, but my math model favors West Virginia by just 5 points in this game. The reason for siding with Cincinnati is a number of very strong situations that favor the Bearcats in this game. Cincy applies to a 133-48- 6 ATS home momentum situation while West Virginia applies to a negative 28-73-1 ATS road letdown situation. The only thing keeping me from making Cincinnati a Best Bet is West Virginia?s history of success on the road. The Mounties are now 23-7 ATS on the road since the 2002 season, including 16-4 ATS as a road favorite. That team trend is not as significant as the strong general situations that favor Cincy in this game and I?ll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I?d take Cincinnati in a 2- Star Best Bet at +7 points or more (-1.15 odds or better).
Robert Ferringo
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
4.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #368 Kansas State (+7.5) over Missouri (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Note: This is our Big 12 Game of the Year.
I think Missouri gets caught looking ahead here against a team that is fuming after giving up 70+ points last week. Manhattan is a tough place to lay a touchdown in and I think the Wildcats win this one outright. The Tigers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six trips there.
4.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #370 Michigan (+4) over Ohio State (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 17)
Note: This is our Big 10 Game of the Year.
Chad Henne and Mike Hart are going to play and they?re going to play well. Whatever letdown effect Michigan may be feeling after a loss at Wisconsin, it has to be 10 times as bad for the Buckeyes who had dreams of a national championship. I?ll take a home dog in a rivalry like this, especially since the Wolverines have been eyeing this game since they lost to Appalachian State.
4-UNIT PLAY. Take #337 Mississippi State (+11) over Arkansas (2 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Mississippi State continues to be undervalued and I think their physical front seven will be able to slow down the one-dimensional Arkansas attack. The Razorbacks are in a prime letdown spot ? they are 2-8 ATS after losing by more than 20 points ? and could be looking ahead to a prime matchup with LSU next weekend. Mississippi State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 road games and 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road dog. The underdog is a stellar 10-2 ATS in this series and I think the Bulldogs take an early lead before succumbing late in a close contest.
3-UNIT PLAY. Take #354 Rice (-2) over Tulane (3 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Tulane is 8-18 ATS as an underdog and 5-16 ATS on turf. Rive is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 conference games and I think they manage their third consecutive win this week.
2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #322 Cincinnati (+6.5) over West Virginia (7:45 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
The Bearcats are one of the few teams in the country that are physical enough in their front seven to suppress the Mountaineers running attack. WVU has owned this series over the past 15 years but now Cincinnati has some horses to settle the score. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS as an underdog and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall. This sets up in a situation similar to when they trounced Rutgers last year. And while I don?t think they are going to run away with this one I can see them winning outright.
2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #371 Miami (+17) over Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
The Hurricanes are 8-1 as an underdog after scoring less than 14 points and 7-1 ATS after allowing 35 or more points. Miami is a bad team, but I think this spread is a bit generous for a Va. Tech team that can have problems scoring. ACC underdogs have hit at a ridiculous clip this season so we?re going to hop on this one here.
2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #326 Indiana (+2.5) over Purdue (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Note: This was originally posted as a 2-Unit Play at 6 p.m. EST. It was intended to be a 2.5-Unit Play so it has been upgraded at 6:06 p.m. EST. I apologize for any inconvenience.
Indiana's entire season has come down to this game and I think they win it on emotion alone. We have a home underdog in a rivalry game here and this is the win that the Hoosiers have been looking for since their coach tragically died during the offseason. The Hoosiers win this one outright to get themselves to a 12th game - a bowl game.
Red Sheet 11/15
Clem37-17 ov BC 89
Kan 58-13 ov I St 89
Temple 27-17 ov Kent 88
NCST 24-23 ov WF 88
Ark 41-14 ov Miss St 88
Gator Report (free)
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NCAA (Saturday): Play Against NCAA road underdogs after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against an opponent after a win by 17 or more points, 46-12 ATS last five seasons. PLAY: UTAH
kodiak
10 mich ml +155
10 mich +4
5 tt o 66
5 kan st +7
5 mich st +3
5 cinc +7 -120
5 buff ml (no ml listed, so +1 -110)
MARC LAWRENCE CFB PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB play
This week play for the PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB from Marc Lawrence:
11/17/07 - CFB
NOT SO FOND FAREWELL
PLAY AGAINST any CFB conference favorite in its last game of the
season off BB SUATS wins, with the last as a dog, if they covered the
spread by > 11 points in their last game and are facing a > .333
opponent that was a dog or favorite < 20 points in its last game.
ATS W-L Record Since 1990: 0-21
PLAY AGAINST: Illinois
Rationale: Letdowns occur most often to team that are fat and
content, especially in season finales. Bring them in against a
formidable foe and they really fall hard.
Northcoast Infomercial
Monday
See SPS poipounder's first post above
Tuesday
Underdog POW
Utep +3.5
Wednesday
Economy Club ( #2 rated play)
NC St. +6
Thursday
Totals POW
Jets under 40.5
Conference USA/Independent POW
Memphis
Doc"s Sports - College
4* Nev +7
4* C Mich -13
4* Cinc +6.5
4* Iowa St +26
4* Minn +14
4* Nd -6
4* Buffalo +1
5* Clemson -7.5
5* Mich St +2.5
6* Indiana +2.5
Marc Lawrence Midweek Alert
College Nevada over Hawaii by 3
NC State over Wake Forest by 6
Pro Tampa Bay over Atalnta by 10
kodiak
10 mich ml +155
10 mich +4
5 tt o 66
5 kan st +7
5 mich st +3
5 cinc +7 -120
5 buff ml (no ml listed, so +1 -110)
Spylock
1 Ohio State
1 U Conn
These guys are having a tough year.
gary greene bluebook
arkansas (-11) top play in college foots.
selective
LSU/Ole Miss Under 54 for 5 units
Michigan +4.5 for 4 units
S-Miss/Utep Over 66 for 4 units
Minnesota +14 for 4 units
COMPS:
Alex Smart comp
Florida State -7.0
Ohio State at Michigan
By: Totals 4 U
Take Ohio State/Michigan Over the Total of 49 1/2 points to improve your season article mark to 9-3.
Maryland at Florida State
By: Mike Wynn
There are no stand-out trends to hang our hats on here, but I?m going to side with Florida St ?7. Drew Watherford is probable at the time of this write up, and I?ll lay it as long as he is healthy. Maryland QB Turner is making his first real tough road start, and with the Seminoles' ability to dominate in the trenches, I think he?ll struggle without a run game to fall back on. We?re on a 6-1 run here on the Locker Room Report and we?ll take Florida St to get us to 7-1.
Boston College at Clemson
By: Dr. Vegas
Free winner from Dr. Vegas: Take Clemson -7 over Boston College.
West Virginia at Cincinnati
By: Spike Measer / Big Time Sports
West Virginia / Cincinnati Over
Oklahoma at Texas Tech
By: Hawkeye Sports
I like Oklahoma in this one -8 over the Red Raiders. Hit it and hit it hard, because as of right now this is my favorite game of the weekend!
Missouri at Kansas State
By: The Nevada Sharpshooter
Take Missouri -7 over Kansas St.
Kentucky at Georgia
By: The Scout
Georgia -7? over Kentucky
Valley Sports comp
NCAA Football
LSU Over Mississippi
Nelly's Sportsline
Free Pick: Connecticut -19 (-110)
Steve Zukiel
Free Pick: Temple +2 (-110)
joyce sterling
College Football
Georgia Tech -10
North Carolina comes in 3-7 with an average points per games only 17.7 their last 8.
The Yellow Jackets have one of
the top rated defenses in the country. Combined with an
offense that runs the ball very effectively, this should be a
pretty easy home win vs a team with nothing to play for.
GT is 6-1 straight up and ATS in their 2nd to last home game.
GT won last year 7-0 holding NC Scoreless.
Vanderbilt +11.5
They are playing with revenge after suffering one of their worst losses last year.
There is good line value here as they are 6-1 ATS after 2 SU & ATS losses.
"The stakes of this game is beyond anything I can say," Commodores defensive tackle Gabe Hall said. "We have got to win this game because six wins might not get it done. We need to get seven. Make no mistake, this is a must-win game."
Boston College +8.5
Underdog Game of the WeekBC is 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
They are coming off their only 2 losses of the year.
They might still make it to the ACC Title game with a win here.
Clemson is just 2-9 ATS off 4 or more SU wins, so good line value here.
the pro source
Georgia Tech -10 Blowout GOM
vs North Carolina Noon et
Ga Tech is in our system that predicts blowouts.
58-25-1 since 1990 ..70% for 17 seasons.
The system is 51-4-1 if our play on team scores 28(+)pts
N Car has allowed 31(+) in 4 of their 5 away games TY.
Rough spot for the Heels. They came up just short last
week at rival NC ST, and have nothing to play for here. It
would be better served for them to save up for their home
and season finale next week vs a beatable Duke team.
A lot to ask to get up for this 2nd straight road game vs
a tough defensive team like GT. The Jackets have one of
the top rated defenses in the country. Combined with an
offense that runs the ball very effectively, this should be a
pretty easy home win vs a team with nothing to play for.
Bonus stat has N Car HC Butch Davis 4-21 ATS when his
team fails to reach the 21 pt mark. Ga Tech allows just
15.6 ppg at home, N Car avgs just 17.6 ppg away & have
topped 16 pts just 2 of the last 7 gms.
Boise St - 33vs Idaho 2 et
Strong system, to Play ON home teams in this spread range
who are off a shut out win, and scored at least the amount
of points Boise scored in their win, and are playing a team
with Idaho's WL%....41-14-1, 75% thru 10 seasons.
Idaho is off a BYE, but in reality, they know they have no
chance this week. They will be looking ahead to next weeks
more realistically winnable home finale vs Utah St.
Bonus stats have Boise 7-2 in home finales
Idaho 1-6 in Gm 11, 0-5 away with rest, 2-9 as 21+ dogs.
Memphis U -11 ** TOP Play CUSA GOY **
vs UAB 3:30 et
One of our strong hot home team systems going that is
a stellar 43-20 S1990 . When our confident homer is a
favorite of 11(+) points, our 5 tiered system climbs to
34-9-1, 79% thru 17 seasons.
We also like to Play On any team coming off a SU win
as a dble digit dog in which they scored 28(+) pts, and
now are playing as a home favorite in this spread range.
25-10, 1983 ...71% for almost 25 yrs.
UAB has been outscored by a 172-54 mark in their last 4
games and allow almost 500 ypg on defense.
MU 8-3 vs losing teams, 7-3 wks 10 to 13, 6-1 off S Miss
Navy -15 vs N. Illinois 3:30 et
A system we have that is 4-2 TY, 22-11 since 1984.
67% for over 20 years....
N Illinois has not played well on the road, losing 4 in a row
SU and ATS. Navy will be relentless and will wear down the
Huskies as the game goes on. NIU averages just 18 ppg on
the road and will be fllat here, as they snapped a 5 gm slide
last week. With the 110th run "D", and having lost their last
2 roadies by a score of 114-24, they will be hard pressed to
stay in this facing a running attack that will not let up.
You can tell how hard it is for poor teams to contain Navy's
offense as Navy is 43-19 vs losing teams, 69% for 15 yrs.
This is Navy's home finale and the high powered offense will
run, and run, and....Utah - 14
vs Wyoming 5:30 et
We're coming right back with another play on Utah.
They're playing so well, especially at home. Here we'll note
that Home Favorites in this spread range that are off a win
of 50(+) pts, are 22-6-2, 79% the last 30 chances. Also,
teams in their last home game playing with revenge off a
shutout win are 12-4-1 vs opponents off a SU win.
The Utes are rapidly rising, and are in a great spot. In the
2nd of BB home games and off their BYE the week prior. .
Most of the recent surge can be attributed to their stud QB
Brian Johnson back in and healthy. The Utes have won SIX
straight, 5 ATS. Their defense has played great with 4 sub
300 yd defensive gms the last 6 and they have not allowed
a TD in 9 qtrs of FB. New Mexico will be flat coming in off a
thrilling comeback win. NM needed a 43 yd FG on the final
play to seal a 26-23 win over CSU last Saturday.
Bonus stats have the home team riding a 7-0 ATS run with
Utah having won the last 3 at home in the series by 32 ppg .
Utah 16-3 as 11(+) home favs.
king creole
Sat, 11/17/07 - 8:00 PMKing Creole | CFB Total
triple-dime bet344 Texas Tech / 343 Oklahoma Over 66.5 BetUS
Analysis: 8:00pm ET / BIG 12 Conference / ABC TV / OKLAHOMA SOONERS @ TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Special BONUS OU Play, also on King Creole's late-phone service:
1* OVER the TOTAL / BOSTON COLLEGE @ CLEMSON / 7:45pm ET (time change) / ESPN2 TV
Please make sure to get you play in ASAP as the OU line is going up. This one opened at 66 points. As we post this play, it's up to 67 points. Based on current game line and OU line, the projected final score in this game is OKLAHOMA 37.5 / TEXAS TECH 29.5.
Oklahoma should have NO problem whatsoever eclipsing 40 or more points in this game. They take on a very poor Red Raider defense that just allowed 59 points last week to Texas. Against the Big 12 teams with high-octane offenses, the Red Raiders have allowed 59 pts, 41 pts, and 49 pts this year (Texas - Missouri - Okla St). That's 50 PPG. The Sooners are averaging 45 PPG in all games this year, so all they need is their average to go OVER our "team goal' of 40 points. The impact of Thursday night's upset loss by OREGON in College Football (by Arizona) also plays a big angle in this game. All three BIG 12 teams who are ranked in the BCS Top Five are now very much alive in the National Title picture. And how does a team MOVE UP in the BCS rankings? By MARGIN of victory..... that's how. So now Oklahoma has even MORE incentive to RUN UP THE SCORE even if they are comfortably ahead in this game. Therefore, an Oklahoma point total of 60 or more points would not surprise us in the least. And with an offense that can do it on the ground (191 rushing YPG) OR in the air (268 passing YPG by QB Sam Bradford), we have the necessary weapons to achieve our goal.
BIG 12 teams playing off 4 STRAIGHT double-digit SU wins (like the Sooners) have gone 28-5-1 O/U since the 2003 season. Put our "play ON" team on the ROAD... as a FAV... vs an opponent off a DD SU Loss (like the Red Raiders), and you get a result of 14-0-1 O/U in the same time frame.
On the flip-side, we get a Big 12 home team that is putting up 42 PPG in the Red Raiders of TEXAS TECH. Our "team goal" for them is 30 points. In all home games over the last three years, Tech averages 45 PPG. Throw out the non-conference results and you still get an average of 39 PPG. Texas Tech is ranked NUMBER ONE (#!) in overall offense for the season (543 YPG)... is #1 in passing offense (481 passing YPG)... and #6 in scoring offense (42 PPG). Of special note is the Red Raiders' prowess thru the air. I mention this because it is the one achilles heel that the Oklahoma defense has. They can INDEED be passed on as they allow more than 230 passing YPG. The Sooners have had problems all season defending the pass. Even at home they couldn't really contain Chase Daniel of Missouri (41-31 final score / another OVER winner for us). OU won by pretty much outscoring the Tigers. And they just barely held on against Texas. Then last week, they had over 400 yards put on them by Baylor, who is by far the worst team in the Big 12. The problem isn't so much OU's pass rush, but their secondary scheme (with tons of youth and inexperience). OU has used the same schemes for years and I think the opposing Big 12 coaches are now starting to figure it out. Texas Tech had some success against this defense last season when the game was played in Norman. They actually had the lead on OU going into the fourth quarter. And that was against a much greener Tech QB Harrell last season. This season, when Oklahoma has allowed 200 or more passing yards in a game (which is a GIVEN on Saturday), they are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in home or away games.
Our Database queries and OU models suggest that this game will have at the very minimum: 77 points or more scored. The average simulation based on all numbers for this game is: OKLAHOMA 48 / TEXAS TECH 38.
Asa
College Football Picks
11/17/2007
1:00:00 PM ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (-11)
over Mississippi State Bulldogs
ASA - This game is absolutely huge for the Razorbacks and they know it and will play accordingly. Arkansas is currently sitting at 6-4 on the season and needs a win over Mississippi State to ensure a bowl berth. The Hogs play at LSU in their season finale so know that this game will be their best chance of securing a postseason game. Expect Arkansas to get that win and get it big. The Razorbacks have an advantage in running the ball over every team but one as they are second in the country with 297 rushing yards per game. That advantage will be especially predominant in this game. Mississippi State is merely average in stopping the run but it has had an especially tough time stopping team that favor the run. The Bulldogs allowed 262 rushing yards in a 38-13 loss to West Virginia, 211 in a 33-21 loss to Tennessee and 198 in a 45-0 loss to LSU. Arkansas is a better rushing team than each of those squads and that will be evident in this one. Mississippi State picked up its biggest win in recent memory with its 17-12 upset of Alabama last week. Expect a major letdown this week. The Bulldogs have in-state rival Ole Miss in the regular season finale so be caught in a potential look-ahead situation as well. And Mississippi State is not a team that can afford to look ahead to anybody, especially when it?s on the road. The Bulldogs simply don?t have the offense to keep up with Arkansas. They are 113th in the country with just 289 total yards per game and can?t be expected to keep pace with Arkansas?s 13th-ranked scoring offense. The Hogs have been especially potent at home, where they are averaging 42.3 points per game on the season. Arkansas has owned this series recently with wins in eight straight meetings and 11 of the last 12 overall. The Hogs? eight straight wins over Mississippi State have come by an average of 14.9 points and this game should match that average. Take Arkansas at home minus the points.
11/17/2007
2:30:00 PM MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (+3)
over Penn State Nittany Lions
ASA 4-Star Michigan State (+3) over Penn State Saturday ? 2:30 pm CST
The Spartans became bowl eligible last week with their impressive 48-31 road win over Purdue last week. They can assure themselves a bowl berth with a win over Penn State in their home finale. Michigan State is just 2-5 SU in conference action this season but an argument could be made that it could be undefeated.
Two of Michigan State?s five Big Ten losses have come in overtime and the other three have come by a touchdown or less against top-25 teams Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan. And the two Spartan wins have come against bowl eligible teams Indiana and Purdue by an average of 21 points per game.
Last week?s win over Purdue was perhaps Michigan State?s most impressive offensive showing of the year. The Spartans may not have put up their highest yardage total of the season but they showed their best balance of the season. One of the best running teams already, quarterback Brian Hoyer threw for 266 yards, his third-highest total of the season, and two scores. That will prove very useful against Penn State?s stout defense.
The win over Purdue came on the heels of a fine, but ultimately losing, showing against rival Michigan the previous week. The Spartans held a 10-point lead over the Wolverines in the fourth quarter but fell apart down the stretch. That loss seemed to motivate the team against the Boilermakers and that motivation should carry over into this week?s game with Penn State.
Michigan State lost 17-13 at Penn State last year but easily covered the 19-point spread. Hoyer threw for 291 yards in that game but didn?t have the benefit of a running game. He will this year. The Spartans are 21st in the nation with 205.4 rushing yards per game behind the two-headed monster of Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick. Ringer has run for nearly 1,300 yards this season at 6.2 yards per carry while Caulcrick has run for 20 touchdowns, good for fourth in the country.
The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record while Penn State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games under the same scenario. Additionally, the Nittany Lions are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine Big Ten contests. Michigan State has played much better than its record indicates and that will continue in this game. Take the Spartans plus the points.
11/17/2007
2:30:00 PM INDIANA HOOSIERS (+1.5)
over Purdue Boilermakers
ASA 4-Star Indiana (+2.5) over Purdue Saturday ? 2:30 pm CST
The Hoosiers are in a very similar position as Michigan State. They?re bowl eligible but a seventh win would all but assure a postseason game. Indiana hasn?t been to a bowl game since 1993 so it will be come into this game, its home finale, with extra incentive. Purdue already has a bowl berth locked up with seven wins so won?t be playing with nearly as much urgency as the Hoosiers.
The high-octane Indiana offense should be able to put big numbers on the board against a sieve-like Purdue defense. The Boilermaker defense has been especially bad on the road, where it is allowing 32.3 points per game. Indiana, meanwhile, has put up its best offensive numbers at home, where it is averaging 36.5 points in six games.
The Hoosiers? well-balance offense should have no problem carving up a Purdue defense that allowed 48 points to a one-dimensional Michigan State offense last week. Indiana quarterback Kellen Lewis is one of the most dangerous players in the Big Ten and nation. He is second in the Big Ten and 19th in the nation with more than 295 total yards of offense per game. And Lewis does it with both is arm and his legs. On top of throwing for more than 2,600 yards, he has run for a team-best 623 yards and six scores.
Much of Purdue?s offensive success comes via the passing game. But, as Michigan State proved last week, disrupting Boilermaker quarterback Curtis Painter can severely limit the Purdue offense. The Spartans put constant pressure on Painter, which resulted in three sacks and two interceptions. Indiana boasts one of the fiercest pass rushes in the country with 3.5 sacks per game, good for fifth in the nation. The Hoosiers should be able to get to Painter and completely disrupt the Purdue offense.
Indiana has been great at home this season with a 3-2 SU record and 4-1 ATS mark. The Hoosiers have also shown a penchant for bouncing back as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Purdue, meanwhile, has made its living off of bad teams. It is just 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games against teams with a winning record and that will continue in this game. Take the Hoosiers at home plus the points.
11/17/2007
6:45:00 PM CLEMSON TIGERS (-8.5)
over Boston College Eagles
ASA Top Game - This battle for a shot at the ACC crown comes down to two teams going in very opposite directions. Clemson, unlike last year?s second-half collapse, has been playing its best football down the stretch. Boston College, on the other hand, has lost two straight games after climbing all the way to No. 2 in the polls. Expect both teams to continue to head in their respective directions in this one with Clemson picking up a big win. The Tigers are currently riding a four-game winning streak that has seen them win by an average of an astonishing 35 points per game. The run started with a 70-14 home win over Central Michigan followed by a 30-17 road win over Maryland, a 47-10 road win over Duke and a 44-10 home win over Wake Forest. The offense and defense have been equally strong with the offense averaging 47.8 points and the defense allowing just 12.8 points per game over that stretch. Boston College has completely fallen apart following its last-second, nationally-televised win over Virginia Tech three weeks ago. The Eagles have proceeded to lose back-to-back games, failing to cover by an average of 15.3 points per game. The defense, which had been strong all season, has allowed 34.5 points in the last two games. Look for Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper, who is 13th in the nation in passing efficiency, to tear up Boston College?s 109th-ranked pass defense. On the other side of the ball, look for the Eagles to struggle to move the ball. Their offense is almost completely predicated on moving the ball through the air but that will be no easy task against Clemson?s secondary. The Tigers are third in the country with just 161.8 passing yards allowed per game. Boston College is one of the worst rushing teams in the country so if it can?t throw the ball, and it won?t be able to, it won?t be able to move the ball at all. Clemson lost to Boston College in overtime in last year?s meeting so will be looking to exact some revenge in this year?s meeting. Expect the Tigers? momentum to make the difference. They?ve won four straight while the Eagles have lost two straight. Take Clemson at home minus the points.
johnny detroit
Sat, 11/17/07 - 5:35 PMJohnny Detroit | CFB Side
dime bet378 Utah -15.0 (-110) Bodog vs 377 New Mexico
Analysis: Last week our sources were on Clemson as their strongest "blowout of the week". This week the order has come in on Utah. We are 35-24 in CFB going down the stretch and look for this game to be an "ass-whooping" from start to finish. Take Utah to destroy New Mexico on Saturday.
College Football
Georgia Tech -10
North Carolina comes in 3-7 with an average points per games only 17.7 their last 8.
The Yellow Jackets have one of
the top rated defenses in the country. Combined with an
offense that runs the ball very effectively, this should be a
pretty easy home win vs a team with nothing to play for.
GT is 6-1 straight up and ATS in their 2nd to last home game.
GT won last year 7-0 holding NC Scoreless.
Vanderbilt +11.5
They are playing with revenge after suffering one of their worst losses last year.
There is good line value here as they are 6-1 ATS after 2 SU & ATS losses.
"The stakes of this game is beyond anything I can say," Commodores defensive tackle Gabe Hall said. "We have got to win this game because six wins might not get it done. We need to get seven. Make no mistake, this is a must-win game."
Boston College +8.5
Underdog Game of the WeekBC is 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
They are coming off their only 2 losses of the year.
They might still make it to the ACC Title game with a win here.
Clemson is just 2-9 ATS off 4 or more SU wins, so good line value here.
the pro source
Georgia Tech -10 Blowout GOM
vs North Carolina Noon et
Ga Tech is in our system that predicts blowouts.
58-25-1 since 1990 ..70% for 17 seasons.
The system is 51-4-1 if our play on team scores 28(+)pts
N Car has allowed 31(+) in 4 of their 5 away games TY.
Rough spot for the Heels. They came up just short last
week at rival NC ST, and have nothing to play for here. It
would be better served for them to save up for their home
and season finale next week vs a beatable Duke team.
A lot to ask to get up for this 2nd straight road game vs
a tough defensive team like GT. The Jackets have one of
the top rated defenses in the country. Combined with an
offense that runs the ball very effectively, this should be a
pretty easy home win vs a team with nothing to play for.
Bonus stat has N Car HC Butch Davis 4-21 ATS when his
team fails to reach the 21 pt mark. Ga Tech allows just
15.6 ppg at home, N Car avgs just 17.6 ppg away & have
topped 16 pts just 2 of the last 7 gms.
Boise St - 33vs Idaho 2 et
Strong system, to Play ON home teams in this spread range
who are off a shut out win, and scored at least the amount
of points Boise scored in their win, and are playing a team
with Idaho's WL%....41-14-1, 75% thru 10 seasons.
Idaho is off a BYE, but in reality, they know they have no
chance this week. They will be looking ahead to next weeks
more realistically winnable home finale vs Utah St.
Bonus stats have Boise 7-2 in home finales
Idaho 1-6 in Gm 11, 0-5 away with rest, 2-9 as 21+ dogs.
Memphis U -11 ** TOP Play CUSA GOY **
vs UAB 3:30 et
One of our strong hot home team systems going that is
a stellar 43-20 S1990 . When our confident homer is a
favorite of 11(+) points, our 5 tiered system climbs to
34-9-1, 79% thru 17 seasons.
We also like to Play On any team coming off a SU win
as a dble digit dog in which they scored 28(+) pts, and
now are playing as a home favorite in this spread range.
25-10, 1983 ...71% for almost 25 yrs.
UAB has been outscored by a 172-54 mark in their last 4
games and allow almost 500 ypg on defense.
MU 8-3 vs losing teams, 7-3 wks 10 to 13, 6-1 off S Miss
Navy -15 vs N. Illinois 3:30 et
A system we have that is 4-2 TY, 22-11 since 1984.
67% for over 20 years....
N Illinois has not played well on the road, losing 4 in a row
SU and ATS. Navy will be relentless and will wear down the
Huskies as the game goes on. NIU averages just 18 ppg on
the road and will be fllat here, as they snapped a 5 gm slide
last week. With the 110th run "D", and having lost their last
2 roadies by a score of 114-24, they will be hard pressed to
stay in this facing a running attack that will not let up.
You can tell how hard it is for poor teams to contain Navy's
offense as Navy is 43-19 vs losing teams, 69% for 15 yrs.
This is Navy's home finale and the high powered offense will
run, and run, and....Utah - 14
vs Wyoming 5:30 et
We're coming right back with another play on Utah.
They're playing so well, especially at home. Here we'll note
that Home Favorites in this spread range that are off a win
of 50(+) pts, are 22-6-2, 79% the last 30 chances. Also,
teams in their last home game playing with revenge off a
shutout win are 12-4-1 vs opponents off a SU win.
The Utes are rapidly rising, and are in a great spot. In the
2nd of BB home games and off their BYE the week prior. .
Most of the recent surge can be attributed to their stud QB
Brian Johnson back in and healthy. The Utes have won SIX
straight, 5 ATS. Their defense has played great with 4 sub
300 yd defensive gms the last 6 and they have not allowed
a TD in 9 qtrs of FB. New Mexico will be flat coming in off a
thrilling comeback win. NM needed a 43 yd FG on the final
play to seal a 26-23 win over CSU last Saturday.
Bonus stats have the home team riding a 7-0 ATS run with
Utah having won the last 3 at home in the series by 32 ppg .
Utah 16-3 as 11(+) home favs.
king creole
Sat, 11/17/07 - 8:00 PMKing Creole | CFB Total
triple-dime bet344 Texas Tech / 343 Oklahoma Over 66.5 BetUS
Analysis: 8:00pm ET / BIG 12 Conference / ABC TV / OKLAHOMA SOONERS @ TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Special BONUS OU Play, also on King Creole's late-phone service:
1* OVER the TOTAL / BOSTON COLLEGE @ CLEMSON / 7:45pm ET (time change) / ESPN2 TV
Please make sure to get you play in ASAP as the OU line is going up. This one opened at 66 points. As we post this play, it's up to 67 points. Based on current game line and OU line, the projected final score in this game is OKLAHOMA 37.5 / TEXAS TECH 29.5.
Oklahoma should have NO problem whatsoever eclipsing 40 or more points in this game. They take on a very poor Red Raider defense that just allowed 59 points last week to Texas. Against the Big 12 teams with high-octane offenses, the Red Raiders have allowed 59 pts, 41 pts, and 49 pts this year (Texas - Missouri - Okla St). That's 50 PPG. The Sooners are averaging 45 PPG in all games this year, so all they need is their average to go OVER our "team goal' of 40 points. The impact of Thursday night's upset loss by OREGON in College Football (by Arizona) also plays a big angle in this game. All three BIG 12 teams who are ranked in the BCS Top Five are now very much alive in the National Title picture. And how does a team MOVE UP in the BCS rankings? By MARGIN of victory..... that's how. So now Oklahoma has even MORE incentive to RUN UP THE SCORE even if they are comfortably ahead in this game. Therefore, an Oklahoma point total of 60 or more points would not surprise us in the least. And with an offense that can do it on the ground (191 rushing YPG) OR in the air (268 passing YPG by QB Sam Bradford), we have the necessary weapons to achieve our goal.
BIG 12 teams playing off 4 STRAIGHT double-digit SU wins (like the Sooners) have gone 28-5-1 O/U since the 2003 season. Put our "play ON" team on the ROAD... as a FAV... vs an opponent off a DD SU Loss (like the Red Raiders), and you get a result of 14-0-1 O/U in the same time frame.
On the flip-side, we get a Big 12 home team that is putting up 42 PPG in the Red Raiders of TEXAS TECH. Our "team goal" for them is 30 points. In all home games over the last three years, Tech averages 45 PPG. Throw out the non-conference results and you still get an average of 39 PPG. Texas Tech is ranked NUMBER ONE (#!) in overall offense for the season (543 YPG)... is #1 in passing offense (481 passing YPG)... and #6 in scoring offense (42 PPG). Of special note is the Red Raiders' prowess thru the air. I mention this because it is the one achilles heel that the Oklahoma defense has. They can INDEED be passed on as they allow more than 230 passing YPG. The Sooners have had problems all season defending the pass. Even at home they couldn't really contain Chase Daniel of Missouri (41-31 final score / another OVER winner for us). OU won by pretty much outscoring the Tigers. And they just barely held on against Texas. Then last week, they had over 400 yards put on them by Baylor, who is by far the worst team in the Big 12. The problem isn't so much OU's pass rush, but their secondary scheme (with tons of youth and inexperience). OU has used the same schemes for years and I think the opposing Big 12 coaches are now starting to figure it out. Texas Tech had some success against this defense last season when the game was played in Norman. They actually had the lead on OU going into the fourth quarter. And that was against a much greener Tech QB Harrell last season. This season, when Oklahoma has allowed 200 or more passing yards in a game (which is a GIVEN on Saturday), they are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in home or away games.
Our Database queries and OU models suggest that this game will have at the very minimum: 77 points or more scored. The average simulation based on all numbers for this game is: OKLAHOMA 48 / TEXAS TECH 38.
Asa
College Football Picks
11/17/2007
1:00:00 PM ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (-11)
over Mississippi State Bulldogs
ASA - This game is absolutely huge for the Razorbacks and they know it and will play accordingly. Arkansas is currently sitting at 6-4 on the season and needs a win over Mississippi State to ensure a bowl berth. The Hogs play at LSU in their season finale so know that this game will be their best chance of securing a postseason game. Expect Arkansas to get that win and get it big. The Razorbacks have an advantage in running the ball over every team but one as they are second in the country with 297 rushing yards per game. That advantage will be especially predominant in this game. Mississippi State is merely average in stopping the run but it has had an especially tough time stopping team that favor the run. The Bulldogs allowed 262 rushing yards in a 38-13 loss to West Virginia, 211 in a 33-21 loss to Tennessee and 198 in a 45-0 loss to LSU. Arkansas is a better rushing team than each of those squads and that will be evident in this one. Mississippi State picked up its biggest win in recent memory with its 17-12 upset of Alabama last week. Expect a major letdown this week. The Bulldogs have in-state rival Ole Miss in the regular season finale so be caught in a potential look-ahead situation as well. And Mississippi State is not a team that can afford to look ahead to anybody, especially when it?s on the road. The Bulldogs simply don?t have the offense to keep up with Arkansas. They are 113th in the country with just 289 total yards per game and can?t be expected to keep pace with Arkansas?s 13th-ranked scoring offense. The Hogs have been especially potent at home, where they are averaging 42.3 points per game on the season. Arkansas has owned this series recently with wins in eight straight meetings and 11 of the last 12 overall. The Hogs? eight straight wins over Mississippi State have come by an average of 14.9 points and this game should match that average. Take Arkansas at home minus the points.
11/17/2007
2:30:00 PM MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (+3)
over Penn State Nittany Lions
ASA 4-Star Michigan State (+3) over Penn State Saturday ? 2:30 pm CST
The Spartans became bowl eligible last week with their impressive 48-31 road win over Purdue last week. They can assure themselves a bowl berth with a win over Penn State in their home finale. Michigan State is just 2-5 SU in conference action this season but an argument could be made that it could be undefeated.
Two of Michigan State?s five Big Ten losses have come in overtime and the other three have come by a touchdown or less against top-25 teams Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan. And the two Spartan wins have come against bowl eligible teams Indiana and Purdue by an average of 21 points per game.
Last week?s win over Purdue was perhaps Michigan State?s most impressive offensive showing of the year. The Spartans may not have put up their highest yardage total of the season but they showed their best balance of the season. One of the best running teams already, quarterback Brian Hoyer threw for 266 yards, his third-highest total of the season, and two scores. That will prove very useful against Penn State?s stout defense.
The win over Purdue came on the heels of a fine, but ultimately losing, showing against rival Michigan the previous week. The Spartans held a 10-point lead over the Wolverines in the fourth quarter but fell apart down the stretch. That loss seemed to motivate the team against the Boilermakers and that motivation should carry over into this week?s game with Penn State.
Michigan State lost 17-13 at Penn State last year but easily covered the 19-point spread. Hoyer threw for 291 yards in that game but didn?t have the benefit of a running game. He will this year. The Spartans are 21st in the nation with 205.4 rushing yards per game behind the two-headed monster of Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick. Ringer has run for nearly 1,300 yards this season at 6.2 yards per carry while Caulcrick has run for 20 touchdowns, good for fourth in the country.
The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record while Penn State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games under the same scenario. Additionally, the Nittany Lions are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine Big Ten contests. Michigan State has played much better than its record indicates and that will continue in this game. Take the Spartans plus the points.
11/17/2007
2:30:00 PM INDIANA HOOSIERS (+1.5)
over Purdue Boilermakers
ASA 4-Star Indiana (+2.5) over Purdue Saturday ? 2:30 pm CST
The Hoosiers are in a very similar position as Michigan State. They?re bowl eligible but a seventh win would all but assure a postseason game. Indiana hasn?t been to a bowl game since 1993 so it will be come into this game, its home finale, with extra incentive. Purdue already has a bowl berth locked up with seven wins so won?t be playing with nearly as much urgency as the Hoosiers.
The high-octane Indiana offense should be able to put big numbers on the board against a sieve-like Purdue defense. The Boilermaker defense has been especially bad on the road, where it is allowing 32.3 points per game. Indiana, meanwhile, has put up its best offensive numbers at home, where it is averaging 36.5 points in six games.
The Hoosiers? well-balance offense should have no problem carving up a Purdue defense that allowed 48 points to a one-dimensional Michigan State offense last week. Indiana quarterback Kellen Lewis is one of the most dangerous players in the Big Ten and nation. He is second in the Big Ten and 19th in the nation with more than 295 total yards of offense per game. And Lewis does it with both is arm and his legs. On top of throwing for more than 2,600 yards, he has run for a team-best 623 yards and six scores.
Much of Purdue?s offensive success comes via the passing game. But, as Michigan State proved last week, disrupting Boilermaker quarterback Curtis Painter can severely limit the Purdue offense. The Spartans put constant pressure on Painter, which resulted in three sacks and two interceptions. Indiana boasts one of the fiercest pass rushes in the country with 3.5 sacks per game, good for fifth in the nation. The Hoosiers should be able to get to Painter and completely disrupt the Purdue offense.
Indiana has been great at home this season with a 3-2 SU record and 4-1 ATS mark. The Hoosiers have also shown a penchant for bouncing back as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Purdue, meanwhile, has made its living off of bad teams. It is just 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games against teams with a winning record and that will continue in this game. Take the Hoosiers at home plus the points.
11/17/2007
6:45:00 PM CLEMSON TIGERS (-8.5)
over Boston College Eagles
ASA Top Game - This battle for a shot at the ACC crown comes down to two teams going in very opposite directions. Clemson, unlike last year?s second-half collapse, has been playing its best football down the stretch. Boston College, on the other hand, has lost two straight games after climbing all the way to No. 2 in the polls. Expect both teams to continue to head in their respective directions in this one with Clemson picking up a big win. The Tigers are currently riding a four-game winning streak that has seen them win by an average of an astonishing 35 points per game. The run started with a 70-14 home win over Central Michigan followed by a 30-17 road win over Maryland, a 47-10 road win over Duke and a 44-10 home win over Wake Forest. The offense and defense have been equally strong with the offense averaging 47.8 points and the defense allowing just 12.8 points per game over that stretch. Boston College has completely fallen apart following its last-second, nationally-televised win over Virginia Tech three weeks ago. The Eagles have proceeded to lose back-to-back games, failing to cover by an average of 15.3 points per game. The defense, which had been strong all season, has allowed 34.5 points in the last two games. Look for Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper, who is 13th in the nation in passing efficiency, to tear up Boston College?s 109th-ranked pass defense. On the other side of the ball, look for the Eagles to struggle to move the ball. Their offense is almost completely predicated on moving the ball through the air but that will be no easy task against Clemson?s secondary. The Tigers are third in the country with just 161.8 passing yards allowed per game. Boston College is one of the worst rushing teams in the country so if it can?t throw the ball, and it won?t be able to, it won?t be able to move the ball at all. Clemson lost to Boston College in overtime in last year?s meeting so will be looking to exact some revenge in this year?s meeting. Expect the Tigers? momentum to make the difference. They?ve won four straight while the Eagles have lost two straight. Take Clemson at home minus the points.
johnny detroit
Sat, 11/17/07 - 5:35 PMJohnny Detroit | CFB Side
dime bet378 Utah -15.0 (-110) Bodog vs 377 New Mexico
Analysis: Last week our sources were on Clemson as their strongest "blowout of the week". This week the order has come in on Utah. We are 35-24 in CFB going down the stretch and look for this game to be an "ass-whooping" from start to finish. Take Utah to destroy New Mexico on Saturday.
TEDDY COVERS:
11/17/07 CFB 20* Big Ticket: San Diego State +11 (335)
ANALYSIS:
One of my favorite late season betting strategies is to support improving teams that are way underneath the national radar. These teams invariably were lousy in September, coming into the season with low expectations, and then achieving those low expectations. The betting marketplace adjusts much slower to late season improvement than it does to early season failures. And that, folks, is the only reason that we?re catching double digits with an ascending San Diego State team here, making this play worthy of Big Ticket status.
Air Force hasn?t had a bye this season, playing in their 12th consecutive ballgame. For a thin team like the Falcons, depth is most assuredly an issue at this time of the year. And, for a team that lacks depth and extraordinary athleticism, we can expect a tired, banged up Air Force squad to take the field this Saturday. Air Force has already clinched their bowl bid. They are coming off back-2-back emotional victories over Notre Dame and Army in their last two ballgames. They?ve covered the number in six straight games, forcing the linesmakers to ratchet up their pointspreads higher and higher.
Last year, in their final two games favored by more than a touchdown, Air Force lost outright. This year, they?ve only been favored by more than a TD once, against a hapless Army squad. Even in that game, Air Force struggled to cover the number. Air Force was favored by 5.5 points over UNLV at home a few weeks back. San Diego State just beat UNLV in Las Vegas, but they are double digit favorites here. Hence the aforementioned pointspread value on the Aztecs, on full display.
San Diego State was terrible in September, exactly what they were expected to be in Chuck Long?s second season at the helm. But we saw them eke out a straight up road win at Colorado State as 13 point underdogs in early October. Then the Aztecs had New Mexico beaten before a late fumble from QB Kevin O?Connell cost them the victory. That loss could have spoiled their season, but instead, San Diego State came together as a team. O?Connell rallied the Aztecs from 21 down to beat Wyoming, then led them to a 38-30 road win at UNLV last week. This is an emerging late season squad, exactly the type of squad that offers the most pointspread value here in November. San Diego State already has a pair of straight up wins as a road underdog this season. Their only loss by more than a field goal since the beginning of October came at Utah, a far superior squad to the one they?ll face on Saturday. San Diego State beat Air Force outright as a ten point underdog last year, 19-12. Don?t be shocked if we see a similar final score on Saturday. Big Ticket: (#335) Take San Diego State.
11/17/07 CFB Michigan +4 (370)
ANALYSIS:
There is not a significant talent gap between Michigan and Ohio State. Both teams rank in the top 10 annually in terms of their recruiting class. Both schools routinely send players to the NFL upon graduation. And historically, we don?t see many extended winning or losing streaks in this annual battle for Big 10 supremacy. There are no inherent structural reasons for the Buckeyes recent dominance in the series (three straight wins and five victories in the last six years).
Both the Wolverines and the Buckeyes lost last Saturday, but the two losses could not have been more different in terms of their implications. Michigan went up to Madison and lost a ?throwaway? game to the Badgers. Chad Henne didn?t play after the first quarter; Mike Hart didn?t play at all. Lloyd Carr knew full well that the Big 10 title and a trip to the Rose Bowl came down to this week?s game, with last week?s game irrelevant to the big picture. In the great tradition of Lou Holtz, Carr was sandbagging, holding his best back for this week?s game. Last week?s loss affects the Wolverines in only one way ? it gives us a great pointspread to bet on them this week.
Ohio State saw their national championship dreams shattered with a home loss to Illinois. A team that had played above their heads all year, on a mission to put last year?s national championship game debacle behind them, just saw those redemption dreams collapse. Teams coming off their first loss of the season here in November make for horrible road favorites the following week ? just ask anyone who bet Arizona State or Boston College last week. I expect it to be very difficult for the Buckeyes to bounce back from that defeat with a spread covering victory this time around. Michigan?s seniors have never won a bowl game or beaten Ohio State, closing the season on a two game losing streak in each of the last three years. Since the start of spring camp, this group of Michigan seniors have talked of nothing else ? the entire season has been in preparation for this one ballgame. Expect both Hart and Henne to play, and play effectively. Lloyd Carr is likely to announce his retirement after the game. The stakes and the motivation could not be bigger for this live home underdog, making them a clear choice to support with our betting dollars on Saturday. (#370) Take Michigan.
11/17/07 CFB Louisiana Tech -5.5 (382)
ANALYSIS:
It hasn?t been a pretty year for Dick Tomey and the San Jose St Spartans. After shocking the country with a nine win season for a perennial losing program last year, the Spartans have regressed mightily in ?07, entering this game with a 4-6 record. While the Spartans come into this game off an impressive 51-17 win over hapless New Mexico State last week, don?t expect that success to translate to this week?s test at Louisiana Tech.
Prior to their win over the Aggies last week, the Spartans had lost their previous two games by a combined score of 72-7. On the road this year, San Jose has lost by 20 or more five times in six games, the lone win and pointspread cover coming against 0-10 Utah State. Those results are typical for teams that can?t run the football. Since last year?s 1000 yard rusher Yonus Davis got hurt, San Jose State?s offense has been completely one dimensional. As a team, they haven?t rushed for 1000 yards this year, in the bottom 10 nationally both in yards per rushing attempt and in total rushing yards, bad news for any team trying to grind out clock and stay competitive in a hostile road environment.
Louisiana Tech went 3-10 last year, and started out this season with a 2-5 mark in their first seven games. The two wins came against FCS Central Arkansas, and by one point, in come-from-behind fashion in a non-spread covering effort against the same New Mexico State team that just got blown out by San Jose St. But the Bulldogs have shown some real fight since, beating Utah State and Idaho by double digits behind a balanced attack that produced more than 200 rushing and 200 passing yards in each of those two wins. Derek Dooley?s squad has clearly improved since the start of the season, giving us the necessary value to back them here. Senior quarterback Zac Champion may not live up to his moniker, but he is a savvy general behind center. Champion has dramatically improved from where he was last year, with his interceptions cut from 18 as a junior to just 9 as a senior. Running backs Patrick Johnson and Dan Porter have nearly 1400 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns between them. But this bet is on the Bulldogs defense as much as it?s on their offense. La Tech has held five of their last seven opponents to 24 points or less, the only exceptions coming against powerhouses LSU and Boise State. They dominated San Jose St on the Spartans last trip to Ruston, winning 31-14. A similar result should be expected here. (#382) Take Louisiana Tech.
11/17/07 CFB South Florida -8 (386)
ANALYSIS:
There haven?t been many teams more disappointing than Louisville this season. Touted as potential national championship contenders coming into the season, the Cardinals haven?t even approached the tremendous heights that this program achieved under Bobby Petrino, In four years under Petrino?s tutelage, the Cardinals won at least nine games each season, finishing with a Top 20 ranking in ?04, ?05 and ?06. But Petrino bolted for the lure of NFL dollars in the offseason, and his replacement, Steve Kragthorpe, simply wasn?t prepared for the jump from Conference USA to the Big East. Right now, Louisville is sitting at 5-5, with a sub .500 record in conference play, a whopping disappointment for an underachieving team. History clearly shows us that these type of teams are not likely to bounce back with a strong late season run.
Don?t be fooled by the relatively tight final score of Louisville?s most recent loss, at West Virginia last Saturday, The Cardinals were able to hang around largely because of Mountaineer mistakes, like their three second half fumbles. They still gave up 38 points to West Virginia, and could give up even more this week, because their defense is an injury plagued disaster area right now. Louisville had only 25 healthy defensive players last week, and lost a few more to injury during the game ? their depth is woefully thin, and their talent level is rather thin as well, bad news for a warm day in South Florida. The Cardinals were forced into nickel defensive sets last week because they didn?t have enough healthy linebackers to take the field. That approach simply isn?t going to work against the Bulls power rushing attack. To make matters even worse for Louisville, their offense has become completely one-dimensional in recent weeks. The Cardinals have no running game these days, held under 100 yards rushing in five of their last seven games. Louisville has only one game in those seven where they managed to run for more than 3.1 yards per carry. In other words, if they can?t throw the football, they can?t win. South Florida is ranked #9 in the country in pass efficiency defense and with sackmeister George Selvie dominating the line of scrimmage, they are #1 in the country in tackles for loss. We saw South Florida hold Louisville to 14 points on their last visit to this field, and a similar result here would be no surprise. The Bulls snapped their three game losing streak with a resounding win at Syracuse last week, gaining 346 of their 582 total yards on the ground. The starters sat out the fourth quarter and South Florida still won 41-10. No surprise here if we see a similar final score in this one. (#386) Take South Florida.
ethan law game of the month
Sat, 11/17/07 - 1:00 PMEthan Law | CFB Side
double-dime bet330 Buffalo 0.0 (-110) Bodog vs 329 Bowling Green
Analysis: BOWLING GREEN (6-4) at BUFFALO (4-6)
We are going to turn our attention to one of the least looked at games on the board in terms on numbers of bets placed on this contest and hope to find a nice selection with some nice value. As usual, Bowling Green (6-4 SU & 4-4 ATS) has a very potent passing offense, averaging 31 points and 300 yards in the air per game. They are led by sophomore quarterback Tyler Sheehan who has played well and his wide receivers are among the best in the MAC with Freddie Barnes, Chris Wright and Marques Parks, however they will be without the services of their star running back/wide receiver Eric Ransom (knee) who is out indefinitely. Ransom had emerged as Bowling Greens top running back, so his absence could be a big blow considering that they would become very one dimensional. Like most of the teams in the MAC, their defense has been a big concern this season as they are giving up a whipping 34 points per game, with many of those points coming due to the fact that their rushing defense is atrocious. Indeed, in last week's 39-32 win at Eastern Michigan, they gave up a whopping 269 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Buffalo has the situational advantage here having had two weeks to prepare for this home contest and the Bulls are 4-2 in the MAC East, battling Miami of Ohio for first place. Buffalo (4-6 SU & 6-4 ATS) has an improving offense with quarterback Drew Willy and running back RB James Starks running the show. Buffalo scored 31 on Ohio, 43 on Toledo and 28 on Miami of Ohio the last game. Unfortunately they lost 31-28 to Miami, giving their division title hopes a bit of a setback. On defense, Buffalo has been much better the Bowling Green allowing 11 points fewer at just 23 points per contest and 3.9 yards per carry in MAC play.
When the opening line came out on this contest I was very surprised to Buffalo open up as a home underdog. Indeed, Buffalo is undefeated in MAC play at home this season and this will be their final home game of the season adding to the motivational edge to the Bulls. Despite the loss to Miami of Ohio last weekend, lets not forget that this is still a Buffalo team that nevertheless has an outside shot at the MAC East title if they win their next two contests. On paper, Buffalo has played a much tougher schedule, and have showed well against superior programs. On paper, they also have the superior defense and rushing attack, so Buffalo should definitely be able to control the time of possession and win the running battle. These teams have 4 common opponents, and the Bulls have superior stats against those opponents in 3 out of 4 games. The word on the street is that Buffalo possession the MAC's 12th best pass defense, but that fact is a bit misleading when you consider that they have only allowed two 300-yard games so far with a win (Toledo) in one of those games. While the Falcon offense might be humming it's not doing much to stop decent ground games, and Buffalo has found a lot of success running the ball on bad teams. With the extra preparation, the motivational and fundamental edges its hard to believe that there is a better play on the board this Saturday. Simply put the wrong team is favored in this contest.
Verdict: Bowling Green 24, Buffalo 31
PLAY 2* UNITS ON BUFFALO PICKEM
11/17/07 CFB 20* Big Ticket: San Diego State +11 (335)
ANALYSIS:
One of my favorite late season betting strategies is to support improving teams that are way underneath the national radar. These teams invariably were lousy in September, coming into the season with low expectations, and then achieving those low expectations. The betting marketplace adjusts much slower to late season improvement than it does to early season failures. And that, folks, is the only reason that we?re catching double digits with an ascending San Diego State team here, making this play worthy of Big Ticket status.
Air Force hasn?t had a bye this season, playing in their 12th consecutive ballgame. For a thin team like the Falcons, depth is most assuredly an issue at this time of the year. And, for a team that lacks depth and extraordinary athleticism, we can expect a tired, banged up Air Force squad to take the field this Saturday. Air Force has already clinched their bowl bid. They are coming off back-2-back emotional victories over Notre Dame and Army in their last two ballgames. They?ve covered the number in six straight games, forcing the linesmakers to ratchet up their pointspreads higher and higher.
Last year, in their final two games favored by more than a touchdown, Air Force lost outright. This year, they?ve only been favored by more than a TD once, against a hapless Army squad. Even in that game, Air Force struggled to cover the number. Air Force was favored by 5.5 points over UNLV at home a few weeks back. San Diego State just beat UNLV in Las Vegas, but they are double digit favorites here. Hence the aforementioned pointspread value on the Aztecs, on full display.
San Diego State was terrible in September, exactly what they were expected to be in Chuck Long?s second season at the helm. But we saw them eke out a straight up road win at Colorado State as 13 point underdogs in early October. Then the Aztecs had New Mexico beaten before a late fumble from QB Kevin O?Connell cost them the victory. That loss could have spoiled their season, but instead, San Diego State came together as a team. O?Connell rallied the Aztecs from 21 down to beat Wyoming, then led them to a 38-30 road win at UNLV last week. This is an emerging late season squad, exactly the type of squad that offers the most pointspread value here in November. San Diego State already has a pair of straight up wins as a road underdog this season. Their only loss by more than a field goal since the beginning of October came at Utah, a far superior squad to the one they?ll face on Saturday. San Diego State beat Air Force outright as a ten point underdog last year, 19-12. Don?t be shocked if we see a similar final score on Saturday. Big Ticket: (#335) Take San Diego State.
11/17/07 CFB Michigan +4 (370)
ANALYSIS:
There is not a significant talent gap between Michigan and Ohio State. Both teams rank in the top 10 annually in terms of their recruiting class. Both schools routinely send players to the NFL upon graduation. And historically, we don?t see many extended winning or losing streaks in this annual battle for Big 10 supremacy. There are no inherent structural reasons for the Buckeyes recent dominance in the series (three straight wins and five victories in the last six years).
Both the Wolverines and the Buckeyes lost last Saturday, but the two losses could not have been more different in terms of their implications. Michigan went up to Madison and lost a ?throwaway? game to the Badgers. Chad Henne didn?t play after the first quarter; Mike Hart didn?t play at all. Lloyd Carr knew full well that the Big 10 title and a trip to the Rose Bowl came down to this week?s game, with last week?s game irrelevant to the big picture. In the great tradition of Lou Holtz, Carr was sandbagging, holding his best back for this week?s game. Last week?s loss affects the Wolverines in only one way ? it gives us a great pointspread to bet on them this week.
Ohio State saw their national championship dreams shattered with a home loss to Illinois. A team that had played above their heads all year, on a mission to put last year?s national championship game debacle behind them, just saw those redemption dreams collapse. Teams coming off their first loss of the season here in November make for horrible road favorites the following week ? just ask anyone who bet Arizona State or Boston College last week. I expect it to be very difficult for the Buckeyes to bounce back from that defeat with a spread covering victory this time around. Michigan?s seniors have never won a bowl game or beaten Ohio State, closing the season on a two game losing streak in each of the last three years. Since the start of spring camp, this group of Michigan seniors have talked of nothing else ? the entire season has been in preparation for this one ballgame. Expect both Hart and Henne to play, and play effectively. Lloyd Carr is likely to announce his retirement after the game. The stakes and the motivation could not be bigger for this live home underdog, making them a clear choice to support with our betting dollars on Saturday. (#370) Take Michigan.
11/17/07 CFB Louisiana Tech -5.5 (382)
ANALYSIS:
It hasn?t been a pretty year for Dick Tomey and the San Jose St Spartans. After shocking the country with a nine win season for a perennial losing program last year, the Spartans have regressed mightily in ?07, entering this game with a 4-6 record. While the Spartans come into this game off an impressive 51-17 win over hapless New Mexico State last week, don?t expect that success to translate to this week?s test at Louisiana Tech.
Prior to their win over the Aggies last week, the Spartans had lost their previous two games by a combined score of 72-7. On the road this year, San Jose has lost by 20 or more five times in six games, the lone win and pointspread cover coming against 0-10 Utah State. Those results are typical for teams that can?t run the football. Since last year?s 1000 yard rusher Yonus Davis got hurt, San Jose State?s offense has been completely one dimensional. As a team, they haven?t rushed for 1000 yards this year, in the bottom 10 nationally both in yards per rushing attempt and in total rushing yards, bad news for any team trying to grind out clock and stay competitive in a hostile road environment.
Louisiana Tech went 3-10 last year, and started out this season with a 2-5 mark in their first seven games. The two wins came against FCS Central Arkansas, and by one point, in come-from-behind fashion in a non-spread covering effort against the same New Mexico State team that just got blown out by San Jose St. But the Bulldogs have shown some real fight since, beating Utah State and Idaho by double digits behind a balanced attack that produced more than 200 rushing and 200 passing yards in each of those two wins. Derek Dooley?s squad has clearly improved since the start of the season, giving us the necessary value to back them here. Senior quarterback Zac Champion may not live up to his moniker, but he is a savvy general behind center. Champion has dramatically improved from where he was last year, with his interceptions cut from 18 as a junior to just 9 as a senior. Running backs Patrick Johnson and Dan Porter have nearly 1400 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns between them. But this bet is on the Bulldogs defense as much as it?s on their offense. La Tech has held five of their last seven opponents to 24 points or less, the only exceptions coming against powerhouses LSU and Boise State. They dominated San Jose St on the Spartans last trip to Ruston, winning 31-14. A similar result should be expected here. (#382) Take Louisiana Tech.
11/17/07 CFB South Florida -8 (386)
ANALYSIS:
There haven?t been many teams more disappointing than Louisville this season. Touted as potential national championship contenders coming into the season, the Cardinals haven?t even approached the tremendous heights that this program achieved under Bobby Petrino, In four years under Petrino?s tutelage, the Cardinals won at least nine games each season, finishing with a Top 20 ranking in ?04, ?05 and ?06. But Petrino bolted for the lure of NFL dollars in the offseason, and his replacement, Steve Kragthorpe, simply wasn?t prepared for the jump from Conference USA to the Big East. Right now, Louisville is sitting at 5-5, with a sub .500 record in conference play, a whopping disappointment for an underachieving team. History clearly shows us that these type of teams are not likely to bounce back with a strong late season run.
Don?t be fooled by the relatively tight final score of Louisville?s most recent loss, at West Virginia last Saturday, The Cardinals were able to hang around largely because of Mountaineer mistakes, like their three second half fumbles. They still gave up 38 points to West Virginia, and could give up even more this week, because their defense is an injury plagued disaster area right now. Louisville had only 25 healthy defensive players last week, and lost a few more to injury during the game ? their depth is woefully thin, and their talent level is rather thin as well, bad news for a warm day in South Florida. The Cardinals were forced into nickel defensive sets last week because they didn?t have enough healthy linebackers to take the field. That approach simply isn?t going to work against the Bulls power rushing attack. To make matters even worse for Louisville, their offense has become completely one-dimensional in recent weeks. The Cardinals have no running game these days, held under 100 yards rushing in five of their last seven games. Louisville has only one game in those seven where they managed to run for more than 3.1 yards per carry. In other words, if they can?t throw the football, they can?t win. South Florida is ranked #9 in the country in pass efficiency defense and with sackmeister George Selvie dominating the line of scrimmage, they are #1 in the country in tackles for loss. We saw South Florida hold Louisville to 14 points on their last visit to this field, and a similar result here would be no surprise. The Bulls snapped their three game losing streak with a resounding win at Syracuse last week, gaining 346 of their 582 total yards on the ground. The starters sat out the fourth quarter and South Florida still won 41-10. No surprise here if we see a similar final score in this one. (#386) Take South Florida.
ethan law game of the month
Sat, 11/17/07 - 1:00 PMEthan Law | CFB Side
double-dime bet330 Buffalo 0.0 (-110) Bodog vs 329 Bowling Green
Analysis: BOWLING GREEN (6-4) at BUFFALO (4-6)
We are going to turn our attention to one of the least looked at games on the board in terms on numbers of bets placed on this contest and hope to find a nice selection with some nice value. As usual, Bowling Green (6-4 SU & 4-4 ATS) has a very potent passing offense, averaging 31 points and 300 yards in the air per game. They are led by sophomore quarterback Tyler Sheehan who has played well and his wide receivers are among the best in the MAC with Freddie Barnes, Chris Wright and Marques Parks, however they will be without the services of their star running back/wide receiver Eric Ransom (knee) who is out indefinitely. Ransom had emerged as Bowling Greens top running back, so his absence could be a big blow considering that they would become very one dimensional. Like most of the teams in the MAC, their defense has been a big concern this season as they are giving up a whipping 34 points per game, with many of those points coming due to the fact that their rushing defense is atrocious. Indeed, in last week's 39-32 win at Eastern Michigan, they gave up a whopping 269 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Buffalo has the situational advantage here having had two weeks to prepare for this home contest and the Bulls are 4-2 in the MAC East, battling Miami of Ohio for first place. Buffalo (4-6 SU & 6-4 ATS) has an improving offense with quarterback Drew Willy and running back RB James Starks running the show. Buffalo scored 31 on Ohio, 43 on Toledo and 28 on Miami of Ohio the last game. Unfortunately they lost 31-28 to Miami, giving their division title hopes a bit of a setback. On defense, Buffalo has been much better the Bowling Green allowing 11 points fewer at just 23 points per contest and 3.9 yards per carry in MAC play.
When the opening line came out on this contest I was very surprised to Buffalo open up as a home underdog. Indeed, Buffalo is undefeated in MAC play at home this season and this will be their final home game of the season adding to the motivational edge to the Bulls. Despite the loss to Miami of Ohio last weekend, lets not forget that this is still a Buffalo team that nevertheless has an outside shot at the MAC East title if they win their next two contests. On paper, Buffalo has played a much tougher schedule, and have showed well against superior programs. On paper, they also have the superior defense and rushing attack, so Buffalo should definitely be able to control the time of possession and win the running battle. These teams have 4 common opponents, and the Bulls have superior stats against those opponents in 3 out of 4 games. The word on the street is that Buffalo possession the MAC's 12th best pass defense, but that fact is a bit misleading when you consider that they have only allowed two 300-yard games so far with a win (Toledo) in one of those games. While the Falcon offense might be humming it's not doing much to stop decent ground games, and Buffalo has found a lot of success running the ball on bad teams. With the extra preparation, the motivational and fundamental edges its hard to believe that there is a better play on the board this Saturday. Simply put the wrong team is favored in this contest.
Verdict: Bowling Green 24, Buffalo 31
PLAY 2* UNITS ON BUFFALO PICKEM
Doc
4 Unit Play. #16 Take Cincinnati +6 ? over West Virginia (Saturday 7:45 pm ESPN) The Bearcats have been one of the big surprises of the 2007 season. Defense has been superb with only the Pittsburgh Panthers rushing for over 100 yards against them. They also have a balanced offense and will be able to move the football against a suspect Mountaineer defense. The Bearcats will be playing their last home game at Nippert Stadium and look for QB White and RB Slaton to be shutdown. Call the upset! Cincinnati 28, West Virginia 24.
5 Unit Play. #18 Take Clemson -7 ? over Boston College (Saturday 7:45 pm ESPN 2) One team peaked early and one team has just arrived on the scene. I will certainly side with the team that has just arrived, the Clemson Tigers. Clemson has been unstoppable since back-to-back losses early in the season. They have won four straight games and none of them have been close. The Tigers finally have balance in the offense to offset a powerful running attack and their defense consistently controls the game. Yet another team playing its final home game of the season and Clemson has lost to this team the last two years in overtime, but no overtime is needed today as the Tigers win BIG. Clemson 35, Boston College 14.
4 Unit Play. #21 Take Iowa State +26 over Kansas (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC Regional) Great spot to fade the Jayhawks here coming off a big road win against Oklahoma State. They are definitely thinking ahead with Missouri on deck. Although the Cyclones have not recorded a straight-up victory, they have been playing well of late. They still have QB Meyer and look for the underclassmen to send him out on a winning note. Kansas 28, Iowa State 14.
5 Unit Play. #26 Take Michigan State +2 ? over Penn State (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC Regional) Truly think that the wrong team is favored here. Spartans have not had a bad outing all season and Coach Dantonio needs this last home game in order to take the program to the next level. Sparty is coming off a road win last week against Purdue and now confidence is sky high. The Lions continue to be a disappointment and another loss here seems inevitable, as the Spartans score at will against an overrated defense. Michigan State 28, Penn State 17.
4 Unit Play. #28 Take Minnesota +14 over Wisconsin (Saturday 3:30 pm Big Ten Network) Badgers got us good last week; however, the result might have been different in QB Henne was healthy. No question the Gophers have had their problems this season, but with the Badgers running game in question, QB Donovan is banged up and this is all that the Gophers have to play for. 14 points seems heavy, as I see it much closer then that. Wisconsin 24, Minnesota 20.
4 Unit Play. #52 Take Notre Dame -6 over Duke (Saturday 2:30 pm NBC) So I said I would never take the Irish this season after they lost to Navy; however, here I am doing the same thing. This team has too much pride to lose their last game of the season at home to Duke. QB Clausen is expected to start and we will bite on the low number once again. This is the Irish?s fifth straight home game and they cannot lose all five. Homer gets the call. Notre Dame 31, Duke 14.
6 Unit Play. #60 Take Indiana +2 ? over Purdue (Saturday 3:30 pm Big Ten Network) This game will likely feature the winner going bowling, while the loser stays home. Hoosiers seniors want this game bad in order to prove that the program has turned the corner. This team has suffered through adversity all season long with Coach Hoeppner?s tragic death before the season started. The reports have been good coming from practice and the 1967 Rose Bowl team will be on hand. Indiana will shutdown the passing attack of the Boilers and Purdue has not recovered from last week?s home loss to Michigan State. Sky high Hoosiers get it done and complete a remarkable season. Indiana 38, Purdue 23
4 Unit Play. #16 Take Cincinnati +6 ? over West Virginia (Saturday 7:45 pm ESPN) The Bearcats have been one of the big surprises of the 2007 season. Defense has been superb with only the Pittsburgh Panthers rushing for over 100 yards against them. They also have a balanced offense and will be able to move the football against a suspect Mountaineer defense. The Bearcats will be playing their last home game at Nippert Stadium and look for QB White and RB Slaton to be shutdown. Call the upset! Cincinnati 28, West Virginia 24.
5 Unit Play. #18 Take Clemson -7 ? over Boston College (Saturday 7:45 pm ESPN 2) One team peaked early and one team has just arrived on the scene. I will certainly side with the team that has just arrived, the Clemson Tigers. Clemson has been unstoppable since back-to-back losses early in the season. They have won four straight games and none of them have been close. The Tigers finally have balance in the offense to offset a powerful running attack and their defense consistently controls the game. Yet another team playing its final home game of the season and Clemson has lost to this team the last two years in overtime, but no overtime is needed today as the Tigers win BIG. Clemson 35, Boston College 14.
4 Unit Play. #21 Take Iowa State +26 over Kansas (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC Regional) Great spot to fade the Jayhawks here coming off a big road win against Oklahoma State. They are definitely thinking ahead with Missouri on deck. Although the Cyclones have not recorded a straight-up victory, they have been playing well of late. They still have QB Meyer and look for the underclassmen to send him out on a winning note. Kansas 28, Iowa State 14.
5 Unit Play. #26 Take Michigan State +2 ? over Penn State (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC Regional) Truly think that the wrong team is favored here. Spartans have not had a bad outing all season and Coach Dantonio needs this last home game in order to take the program to the next level. Sparty is coming off a road win last week against Purdue and now confidence is sky high. The Lions continue to be a disappointment and another loss here seems inevitable, as the Spartans score at will against an overrated defense. Michigan State 28, Penn State 17.
4 Unit Play. #28 Take Minnesota +14 over Wisconsin (Saturday 3:30 pm Big Ten Network) Badgers got us good last week; however, the result might have been different in QB Henne was healthy. No question the Gophers have had their problems this season, but with the Badgers running game in question, QB Donovan is banged up and this is all that the Gophers have to play for. 14 points seems heavy, as I see it much closer then that. Wisconsin 24, Minnesota 20.
4 Unit Play. #52 Take Notre Dame -6 over Duke (Saturday 2:30 pm NBC) So I said I would never take the Irish this season after they lost to Navy; however, here I am doing the same thing. This team has too much pride to lose their last game of the season at home to Duke. QB Clausen is expected to start and we will bite on the low number once again. This is the Irish?s fifth straight home game and they cannot lose all five. Homer gets the call. Notre Dame 31, Duke 14.
6 Unit Play. #60 Take Indiana +2 ? over Purdue (Saturday 3:30 pm Big Ten Network) This game will likely feature the winner going bowling, while the loser stays home. Hoosiers seniors want this game bad in order to prove that the program has turned the corner. This team has suffered through adversity all season long with Coach Hoeppner?s tragic death before the season started. The reports have been good coming from practice and the 1967 Rose Bowl team will be on hand. Indiana will shutdown the passing attack of the Boilers and Purdue has not recovered from last week?s home loss to Michigan State. Sky high Hoosiers get it done and complete a remarkable season. Indiana 38, Purdue 23
fairway jay 20* sec total goy arkansas under
teddy covers 20* mountain west goy san diego st..
joe atkins 10* bowling green over
gameday 4* gow florida state..
randy white -cowboy club goy Missouri
ron raymond 5 units oklahoma -8
Pointwise Phones
4* NC St., Arkansas
3* Kansas, Central Michigan, TCU, Northwestern, Clemson, Oklahoma St., Houston
2* Pitt.
mel stewart
BLOWOUT of the Week
Boise St. -33
1-9 vs 9-1
They are 6-2 ATS when laying 24 or more vs WAC.
Boise St. will not stop.
Bonus stats have Boise 7-2 in home finales
Idaho 1-6 in Gm 11, 0-5 away with rest, 2-9 as 21+ dogs
madduxsports
#322 - NCAA - 3 units on Cincinnati +7 -120
#346 - NCAA - 5 units on Kansas -26
#364 - NCAA - 3 units on Mississippi +19.5
#374 - NCAA - 3 units on Clemson -6.5 -120
#378 - NCAA - 3 units on Utah -14.5
#386 - NCAA - 4 units on South Florida -6.5 -120
Steven Budin
SATURDAY'S PICK
20 DIME PLAY
VIRGINIA TECH
Nationwide (goldst) :
Top: Mich St,
Reg: Conn, Ore St Under, Md, N Mex, Nc St
Private Players :
5*
Wash St
4*
clem
Pitt
3*
Iowa St
Nc St
teddy covers 20* mountain west goy san diego st..
joe atkins 10* bowling green over
gameday 4* gow florida state..
randy white -cowboy club goy Missouri
ron raymond 5 units oklahoma -8
Pointwise Phones
4* NC St., Arkansas
3* Kansas, Central Michigan, TCU, Northwestern, Clemson, Oklahoma St., Houston
2* Pitt.
mel stewart
BLOWOUT of the Week
Boise St. -33
1-9 vs 9-1
They are 6-2 ATS when laying 24 or more vs WAC.
Boise St. will not stop.
Bonus stats have Boise 7-2 in home finales
Idaho 1-6 in Gm 11, 0-5 away with rest, 2-9 as 21+ dogs
madduxsports
#322 - NCAA - 3 units on Cincinnati +7 -120
#346 - NCAA - 5 units on Kansas -26
#364 - NCAA - 3 units on Mississippi +19.5
#374 - NCAA - 3 units on Clemson -6.5 -120
#378 - NCAA - 3 units on Utah -14.5
#386 - NCAA - 4 units on South Florida -6.5 -120
Steven Budin
SATURDAY'S PICK
20 DIME PLAY
VIRGINIA TECH
Nationwide (goldst) :
Top: Mich St,
Reg: Conn, Ore St Under, Md, N Mex, Nc St
Private Players :
5*
Wash St
4*
clem
Pitt
3*
Iowa St
Nc St
nevada club- tulsa
Inside Info :
3*
gt
Hou
2*
New Mex
Big Money:
Georgia
andy iskoe- clemson
glen mcgrew best bet - san diego st.
mike warren platinum play georiga, navy..
reed harris conf. usa goy houston u.
sports reporter 4* wiscy, florida st. 3* utah u .over
brad diamond under mississippi st
Scott Spreitzer
Game of Year
Arkansas
computer consensus 100% play temple
scott landau kansas
mel stewart
BOSTON COLLEGE +8.5
Underdog Game of the Week
BC is 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
They are coming off their only 2 losses of the year.
They might still make it to the ACC Title game with a win here.
Clemson is just 2-9 ATS off 4 or more SU wins, so good line value here
Indiana +2
Contrary Play of the Week
This rivalry historically goes to Purdue. Purdue has won 9 of the last 10 meetings. BUT Indiana needs this win to qualify for post season play.
Indiana will go all out to win this last home game, for deceased head coach Hoeppner.
Jack Clayton
Game: Duke at Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame (350)
Reason: Duke at Notre Dame (350): I'm laying the points with Notre Dame, and don't laugh. I've been against them all season, but this is one spot to back them at such a cheap home price. The Irish offense has actually come alive under freshman QB Jimmy Clausen, with 44 and 24 points the last two games. This is also their fifth straight home game! Duke (1-9) is easily the worst offense they've faced all season, and comes into this on an 0-4 SU/ATS run. In Duke's lone win, they held Northwestern to 14 points but got outgained by a whopping 506-309 average. Despite a farily close final score to FLorida State (25-6 loss) the Blue Devils got outgained 534-222. Now they are just a 6-point dog to an angry, frustrated Notre Dame team that can't wait to destroy ANY cupcake. And this is the only cupcake they've faced all season. If it can't beat 1-9 Duke, it will be the first Irish unit since 1933 without a victory at home. Charlie Weis is a fiery, emotional coach and will have these guys playing like it's the Rose Bowl. This will be a one-sided rout. Play Notre Dame!
Inside Info :
3*
gt
Hou
2*
New Mex
Big Money:
Georgia
andy iskoe- clemson
glen mcgrew best bet - san diego st.
mike warren platinum play georiga, navy..
reed harris conf. usa goy houston u.
sports reporter 4* wiscy, florida st. 3* utah u .over
brad diamond under mississippi st
Scott Spreitzer
Game of Year
Arkansas
computer consensus 100% play temple
scott landau kansas
mel stewart
BOSTON COLLEGE +8.5
Underdog Game of the Week
BC is 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
They are coming off their only 2 losses of the year.
They might still make it to the ACC Title game with a win here.
Clemson is just 2-9 ATS off 4 or more SU wins, so good line value here
Indiana +2
Contrary Play of the Week
This rivalry historically goes to Purdue. Purdue has won 9 of the last 10 meetings. BUT Indiana needs this win to qualify for post season play.
Indiana will go all out to win this last home game, for deceased head coach Hoeppner.
Jack Clayton
Game: Duke at Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame (350)
Reason: Duke at Notre Dame (350): I'm laying the points with Notre Dame, and don't laugh. I've been against them all season, but this is one spot to back them at such a cheap home price. The Irish offense has actually come alive under freshman QB Jimmy Clausen, with 44 and 24 points the last two games. This is also their fifth straight home game! Duke (1-9) is easily the worst offense they've faced all season, and comes into this on an 0-4 SU/ATS run. In Duke's lone win, they held Northwestern to 14 points but got outgained by a whopping 506-309 average. Despite a farily close final score to FLorida State (25-6 loss) the Blue Devils got outgained 534-222. Now they are just a 6-point dog to an angry, frustrated Notre Dame team that can't wait to destroy ANY cupcake. And this is the only cupcake they've faced all season. If it can't beat 1-9 Duke, it will be the first Irish unit since 1933 without a victory at home. Charlie Weis is a fiery, emotional coach and will have these guys playing like it's the Rose Bowl. This will be a one-sided rout. Play Notre Dame!
JIM KRUGER - NCAA FOOTS
# 370 Michigan +4 over Ohio State - Silver 4* 1.5 Unit Play
# 326 Indiana +1.5 over Purdue - Bronze 3*
# 335 San Diego State +11 over Air Force - Bronze 3*
# 386 South Florida -8.5 over Louisville - Bronze 3*
# 383 NC State +6 over Wake Forest - Bronze 3*
Ben Burns 3 game exec report:
GEORGIA (-10 or better)
Game: Kentucky vs. Georgia Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:30:00 PM Prediction: Georgia Reason: I'm laying the points with GEORGIA. The Bulldogs will be looking for payback after getting upset by the Wildcats last season. That game came at Kentucky though while this week's game comes at Georgia. That's worth noting as the Bulldogs won 45-13 when the teams faced each other here most recently (11/19/05) and 30-10 prior to that. In fact, prior to last season, the Bulldogs had won nine straight series meetings with the most recent five victories all coming by double-digits. Its also worth mentioning that in 60 all-time series meetings, the Wildcats have never won two in a row. The Wildcats managed to squeak by Vanderbilt last week. However, they'd lost two in a row before that and they're just 3-12 the last 15 times they played the second of back to back conference road games. Conversely, having scored 40+ points three times in a row for the first time since 1942, the Bulldogs come in as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Bulldogs, who can still win the SEC Championship, are 4-0 their last four home games. All four victories came by double-digits. Looking back a bit further and we find that their last six home victories have all come by a minimum of a touchdown. Look for more of the same this afternoon as the Bulldogs avenge last season's loss in convincing fashion. *SEC MAIN EVENT
FLORIDA STATE (-10 or better)
Game: Maryland vs. Florida St Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Florida St Reason: I'm laying the points with FLORIDA STATE. After upsetting Boston College, the Seminoles stumbled at Virginia Tech last week. They're 14-5 the last 19 times they were coming off a conference loss though and I expect them to bounce back with a convincing victory this week. While they lost at Maryland last season, the Seminoles have dominated the Terps here in Florida. Looking back to 1995 and we find the Seminoles are a perfect 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) as a series host with all five victories coming by a minimum of eight points. In fact, the Terps have never won at Tallahasse! Its also worth noting that the last seven Florida State home victories (against any opponent) have all come by a minimum of seven points, six of them coming by eight points or more. Look for them to win by more than that this afternoon as the Terps suffer a "letdown" after last week's upset and fall to 1-5 ATS their last six road games.
KANSAS STATE (+6 or better)
Game: Missouri vs. Kansas St. Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:30:00 PM Prediction: Kansas St. Reason: I'm taking the points with KANSAS STATE. I successfully played against the Wildcats last week, as they got absolutely crushed at Nebraska. In fact, the 73 points the Wildcats allowed was the most since a 75-28 defeat to Oklahoma way back in 1971. Ironically, the Huskers were also coming off an embarrassing loss in which they had allowed a franchise record number (76) of points. Like the Huskers did last week, I expect the Wildcats to bounce back with a MUCH better effort this week. This is a huge game for the Wildcats for several reasons. For starters, they still need to win a sixth game to become bowl eligible, although even six wins isn't necessarily a guarantee of a bowl berth. Perhaps more importantly, they desperately need a victory for the fans, players and alumni to feel better about the direction that second year coach Ron Prince is taking the team. Prince had a strong first year which caused expectations to rise. They soared even higher after K-state knocked off Texas to start conference play. However, back to back upset losses has dropped the Wildcats to 5-5 and 3-4 within the Big 12. A win against a top tier club like Missouri would do wonders. This is the Wildcats' home finale and second last game overall. You may recall that last year, in that same situation, the Wildcats upset Texas, as +16 point underdogs. While the Tigers knocked off the Wildcats at Columbia last season, the Wildcats had won 13 straight series meetings prior to that, including a 36-28 win the last time the teams met here at Manhattan. The Tigers are a highly explosive team. In fact, I won't be surprised if they hand Kansas its first loss next week. However, with that massive game on deck, I won't be surprised if the Tigers get caught "looking ahead." Look for a big game from the Wildcats as they take things down to the wire and earn at least the cover.
# 370 Michigan +4 over Ohio State - Silver 4* 1.5 Unit Play
# 326 Indiana +1.5 over Purdue - Bronze 3*
# 335 San Diego State +11 over Air Force - Bronze 3*
# 386 South Florida -8.5 over Louisville - Bronze 3*
# 383 NC State +6 over Wake Forest - Bronze 3*
Ben Burns 3 game exec report:
GEORGIA (-10 or better)
Game: Kentucky vs. Georgia Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:30:00 PM Prediction: Georgia Reason: I'm laying the points with GEORGIA. The Bulldogs will be looking for payback after getting upset by the Wildcats last season. That game came at Kentucky though while this week's game comes at Georgia. That's worth noting as the Bulldogs won 45-13 when the teams faced each other here most recently (11/19/05) and 30-10 prior to that. In fact, prior to last season, the Bulldogs had won nine straight series meetings with the most recent five victories all coming by double-digits. Its also worth mentioning that in 60 all-time series meetings, the Wildcats have never won two in a row. The Wildcats managed to squeak by Vanderbilt last week. However, they'd lost two in a row before that and they're just 3-12 the last 15 times they played the second of back to back conference road games. Conversely, having scored 40+ points three times in a row for the first time since 1942, the Bulldogs come in as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Bulldogs, who can still win the SEC Championship, are 4-0 their last four home games. All four victories came by double-digits. Looking back a bit further and we find that their last six home victories have all come by a minimum of a touchdown. Look for more of the same this afternoon as the Bulldogs avenge last season's loss in convincing fashion. *SEC MAIN EVENT
FLORIDA STATE (-10 or better)
Game: Maryland vs. Florida St Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Florida St Reason: I'm laying the points with FLORIDA STATE. After upsetting Boston College, the Seminoles stumbled at Virginia Tech last week. They're 14-5 the last 19 times they were coming off a conference loss though and I expect them to bounce back with a convincing victory this week. While they lost at Maryland last season, the Seminoles have dominated the Terps here in Florida. Looking back to 1995 and we find the Seminoles are a perfect 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) as a series host with all five victories coming by a minimum of eight points. In fact, the Terps have never won at Tallahasse! Its also worth noting that the last seven Florida State home victories (against any opponent) have all come by a minimum of seven points, six of them coming by eight points or more. Look for them to win by more than that this afternoon as the Terps suffer a "letdown" after last week's upset and fall to 1-5 ATS their last six road games.
KANSAS STATE (+6 or better)
Game: Missouri vs. Kansas St. Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:30:00 PM Prediction: Kansas St. Reason: I'm taking the points with KANSAS STATE. I successfully played against the Wildcats last week, as they got absolutely crushed at Nebraska. In fact, the 73 points the Wildcats allowed was the most since a 75-28 defeat to Oklahoma way back in 1971. Ironically, the Huskers were also coming off an embarrassing loss in which they had allowed a franchise record number (76) of points. Like the Huskers did last week, I expect the Wildcats to bounce back with a MUCH better effort this week. This is a huge game for the Wildcats for several reasons. For starters, they still need to win a sixth game to become bowl eligible, although even six wins isn't necessarily a guarantee of a bowl berth. Perhaps more importantly, they desperately need a victory for the fans, players and alumni to feel better about the direction that second year coach Ron Prince is taking the team. Prince had a strong first year which caused expectations to rise. They soared even higher after K-state knocked off Texas to start conference play. However, back to back upset losses has dropped the Wildcats to 5-5 and 3-4 within the Big 12. A win against a top tier club like Missouri would do wonders. This is the Wildcats' home finale and second last game overall. You may recall that last year, in that same situation, the Wildcats upset Texas, as +16 point underdogs. While the Tigers knocked off the Wildcats at Columbia last season, the Wildcats had won 13 straight series meetings prior to that, including a 36-28 win the last time the teams met here at Manhattan. The Tigers are a highly explosive team. In fact, I won't be surprised if they hand Kansas its first loss next week. However, with that massive game on deck, I won't be surprised if the Tigers get caught "looking ahead." Look for a big game from the Wildcats as they take things down to the wire and earn at least the cover.
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Larry Ness' LEGEND Play-CFB (7-2 or 77.8% ATS in CFB's regular season since '05!)
My LEGEND Play is on South Florida at 8:00 ET. Louisville finished 12-1 last year, after beating Wake in the Orange Bowl (24-13) and was expected battle West Va for the Big East crown (maybe even compete for the national championship?). That's hardly been the case, as the Cardinals enter this game just 5-5 and are still looking to become bowl eligible. USF opened 6-0, got ranked for the first time in school history and made a huge splash by opening No. 2 in the first BCS standings of the year! However, things fell apart quickly for the Bulls. They lost consecutive road games at Rutgers (30-27) and U Conn (22-17) and then lost 38-33 at home to Cincy. However, USF did "right the ship" with an easy 41-10 win at Syracuse last week (582 yards). Don't sell USF short. The Bulls could have easily won both road losses (Rutgers and U Conn) and in the home loss to Cincy, imploded with EIGHT turnovers! Grothe is a "winner" at QB (2,120 YP and 11 TDs / leading rusher with 698 yards / 4.4 per / 8 TDs), plus the defense is athletic and very quick (19.4 PPG / 312.5 YPG). In fact, it features six senior starters, all playing their final home game. It will be a great test for Louisville's Brian Brohm (67.2% / 357.2 YPG / 28-9 ratio). WRs Douglas and Urrutia will face an excellent 2ndy tandem in ******* and Williams (combined 10 INTs) and Louisville's rushing game has dropped off about 50 YPG in '07, while averaging just 4.0 YPC (down from 5.0 in '06!). These teams have met the last four years with the home team winning and covering each time (includes USF's 45-14 win as 20 1/2-pt home dogs in '05!). USF is 7-2 ATS at home since its breakout year in '06 and a win here and at Pitt next Saturday, gets them a pretty good bowl bid. USF comes up big in its final home game of the year. LEGEND Play on USF.
Tim Trushel
20* Pittsburgh
Pointwise (Newsletter)
C Mich 1*
Kansas 1*
Clemson 2*
Utah 3*
Mia Fl 4*
TCU 4*
Memphis 5*
T Tech 5*
Dave Malinsky
6* Notre Dame
6* San Diego State /Air force Over
4* Northwestern
4* Connetcuit
4* South Florida
My LEGEND Play is on South Florida at 8:00 ET. Louisville finished 12-1 last year, after beating Wake in the Orange Bowl (24-13) and was expected battle West Va for the Big East crown (maybe even compete for the national championship?). That's hardly been the case, as the Cardinals enter this game just 5-5 and are still looking to become bowl eligible. USF opened 6-0, got ranked for the first time in school history and made a huge splash by opening No. 2 in the first BCS standings of the year! However, things fell apart quickly for the Bulls. They lost consecutive road games at Rutgers (30-27) and U Conn (22-17) and then lost 38-33 at home to Cincy. However, USF did "right the ship" with an easy 41-10 win at Syracuse last week (582 yards). Don't sell USF short. The Bulls could have easily won both road losses (Rutgers and U Conn) and in the home loss to Cincy, imploded with EIGHT turnovers! Grothe is a "winner" at QB (2,120 YP and 11 TDs / leading rusher with 698 yards / 4.4 per / 8 TDs), plus the defense is athletic and very quick (19.4 PPG / 312.5 YPG). In fact, it features six senior starters, all playing their final home game. It will be a great test for Louisville's Brian Brohm (67.2% / 357.2 YPG / 28-9 ratio). WRs Douglas and Urrutia will face an excellent 2ndy tandem in ******* and Williams (combined 10 INTs) and Louisville's rushing game has dropped off about 50 YPG in '07, while averaging just 4.0 YPC (down from 5.0 in '06!). These teams have met the last four years with the home team winning and covering each time (includes USF's 45-14 win as 20 1/2-pt home dogs in '05!). USF is 7-2 ATS at home since its breakout year in '06 and a win here and at Pitt next Saturday, gets them a pretty good bowl bid. USF comes up big in its final home game of the year. LEGEND Play on USF.
Tim Trushel
20* Pittsburgh
Pointwise (Newsletter)
C Mich 1*
Kansas 1*
Clemson 2*
Utah 3*
Mia Fl 4*
TCU 4*
Memphis 5*
T Tech 5*
Dave Malinsky
6* Notre Dame
6* San Diego State /Air force Over
4* Northwestern
4* Connetcuit
4* South Florida
Wunderdog Comp (CFB)
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Game: U N L V at T C U (Saturday 11/17 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: U N L V +17
What a disappointment this season has been for TCU. A team that was supposed to have a chance at an undefeated season and an early shot to pull off the shocker at Texas, has resulted in a mediocre 5-5 season. Last year they ran the table in their last eight, finishing 8-0 and outscoring the opponent 281-86. What a difference a year makes. This year's team has given up 90 points in their last four games! So where does the motivation come from, playing at home vs. a team that has lost six straight? Discounting the Hawaii game, who is in a class by themselves on this level, UNLV has only dropped one game by as many as this line, as bad as they have been. Their offense has improved of late. They have out-gained their last three opponents by 1307-1179. The fact is they have out-gained six of ten opponents, shutout Utah, and led Wisconsin late in the 4th. They can score enough points to stay in this game, especially against an unmotivated opponent. We like the generous points in this one and will back the Rebs.
Brandon Lang
SATURDAY
50 DIME
CLEMSON TIGERS
30 DIME
Virginia Tech
Tulsa
20 DIME
Missouri
Temple
15 DIME
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Free Pick - South Florida
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Game: U N L V at T C U (Saturday 11/17 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: U N L V +17
What a disappointment this season has been for TCU. A team that was supposed to have a chance at an undefeated season and an early shot to pull off the shocker at Texas, has resulted in a mediocre 5-5 season. Last year they ran the table in their last eight, finishing 8-0 and outscoring the opponent 281-86. What a difference a year makes. This year's team has given up 90 points in their last four games! So where does the motivation come from, playing at home vs. a team that has lost six straight? Discounting the Hawaii game, who is in a class by themselves on this level, UNLV has only dropped one game by as many as this line, as bad as they have been. Their offense has improved of late. They have out-gained their last three opponents by 1307-1179. The fact is they have out-gained six of ten opponents, shutout Utah, and led Wisconsin late in the 4th. They can score enough points to stay in this game, especially against an unmotivated opponent. We like the generous points in this one and will back the Rebs.
Brandon Lang
SATURDAY
50 DIME
CLEMSON TIGERS
30 DIME
Virginia Tech
Tulsa
20 DIME
Missouri
Temple
15 DIME
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Free Pick - South Florida
Rocky Atkinson of SharpBettor.com:
Matchup No. 1: Vanderbilt at Tennessee, Saturday, Nov. 17, 11:00 a.m. PT
Condition: Vanderbilt
Explanation: Tennessee is 1-6 ATS since 1992 in a home game when the ?total? is between 49 1/2 and 52 points. Vanderbilt is 6-1 ATS away off back-to-back straight up and ATS losses. Tennessee is 2-16 ATS at home vs. sub-.500 conference opponent. Tennessee is 2-10 ATS as double digit favorites. Tennessee is 0-8 ATS at home vs. opponent with revenge. We'll play Vanderbilt for two units.
Matchup No. 2: Oregon State at Washington State, Saturday, Nov. 17, 3:30 p.m. PT
Condition: Oregon State
Explanation: Oregon State is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall with Washington State and 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings at Washington State. Oregon State has a 6-4 record this season while Washington State comes in at 4-6. Mike Riley will have his team ready to play in this one as they try to solidify a winning record this season and a bowl berth. We'll play Oregon State for three units.
Matchup No. 3: Boston College at Clemson, Saturday, Nov. 17, 4:45 p.m. PT (ESPN2)
Condition: Boston College
Explanation: Boston College is 2-0 SU and ATS overall vs. Clemson since 1992. Boston College is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Boston College is 30-16 ATS in all games when the line is 7 to 9 1/2. Boston College is 46-25 ATS last 71 as a road underdog. Boston College is 30-14 ATS after two losses in its last 44. Boston College is 4-0 ATS in its last four against Clemson. Boston College is 7-1 ATS as dogs less than 10 points off a straight up favorite loss. We'll play Boston College for two units.
Alex Smart
GOTY BC +8.5 6 units
Rice -2 2 units
Texas Tech +9 2 units
CKO
10 TULSA over *Army
Late Score Forecast:
TULSA 43 - *Army 17
Tulsa's undersized stop unit made it difficult for Golden Hurricane to clear some considerable pointspread hurdles in middle of season. But there's a big difference between BYU, Oklahoma, and several of the lively C-USA strike forces that scored some points vs. Tulsa "D" than the limited Army attack that has bogged down (just 9 ppg last 3 weeks). Lack of effective QB play (starter Williams only 49% completions) one of many reasons Black Knights haven't covered a pointspread since late September (0-4-1 vs. line since) or come closer than 20 in their last 4 defeats. Certainly no QB issues for Golden Hurricane, as prolific sr. Paul Smith (32 TDP) closing his career with a flourish. Scary Tulsa "O" (54 ppg last 2) fueling charge to third straight bowl game.
10 *TEMPLE over Kent State
Late Score Forecast:
*TEMPLE 27 - Kent State 19
Despite loss to ranked Penn State last week, expect top effort from Temple in final home game. Owls are much improved in HC Al Golden's second season, and have already won as many games this year as the last 3 combined. Temple QB Vaughn Charlton has proven a reliable replacement for Adam DiMichele, throwing for 399 yds. in his two starts. The Owl rush defense is one of the most improved areas of the team, as Temple, which allowed 6.0 ypc last season, has cut that down to a respectable 4.3 this year. Kent State's QB situation is a major question mark. True frosh Giorgio Morgan, who inherited the starting job through injuries to first two QBs, was injured himself against Northern Illinois, forcing HC Doug Martin to go to soph Jon Brown (16 of 34 passing). Look for Temple to bounce back with 4th MAC win.
10 UAB over *Memphis
Late Score Forecast:
UAB 31 - *Memphis 33
UAB HC Neil Callaway has done a good job keeping his young team on course for improvement despite a spate of injuries. The Blazers have covered 3 of last 4 on the road, and showed some offensive spark behind 6-3 soph QB Joseph Webb, who completed 15 of 25 passes for 3 TDs against Central Florida in his chances when rotating with sr. Sam Hunt. Memphis QB Hankins has had a hot hand, but the Memphis defense has yielded 35 ppg in last 8 contests and 5.4 ypc on the season. Memphis loves to keep things exciting (4 Tiger victories came by a total of 10 points), and this one should go down to the wire as well. UAB 6-0-1 vs. pointspread last 7 in series.
10 NORTH CAROLINA STATE
over *Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
N.C. STATE 24 - *Wake Forest 20
ACC scouts say surging NCS (4 straight wins, 5 straight covers) displaying much more esprit de corps in early practices than discouraged Wake, which won't be repeating as the ACC champ following depressing 44-10 thumping at Clemson. Fundamentally, now that Wolfpack soph RB Eugene (season-high 159 YR & 6 grabs vs. UNC) demanding constant attention, confident 6-2 jr. QB Evans (60%) should continue to work play-action passes vs. reeling Deacon 2ndary that's allowed 491 YP with no ints. last two weeks. On other hand, with athletic, aggressive NCS front 7 healthier, doubt heavily-pressured WF triggerman Skinner snaps out of current funk (only 1 TD last 2 games). And be sure State's shrewd 1st-year HC O'Brien will have his quick, jelling stop unit "staying at home" vs. Deacons myriad of misdirection plays. So, no surprise to see well-motivated 5-5 Wolfpack become bowl eligible vs. struggling Deacons in this short trip down "Tobacco Road."
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): MICHIGAN STATE (+3) vs. Penn State--First-year Spartan coach Dantonio determined to overcome MSU's reputation as late-season losers; Penn State 1-2 SU, 0-3 vs. spread on Big Ten road TY...CONNECTICUT (-19) vs. Syracuse--Huskies have covered four straight at home; their ferocious defense likely to set up some easy scores vs. limited Orange offense...BUFFALO (+1) vs. Bowling Green--Improved Bulls, who have won their last three MAC games at home, enjoyed a bye week to prepare for BG's banged-up offense, vulnerable defense...BOISE STATE (-30) vs. Idaho--Balanced Boise boys' backs ways too quick for Vandals on blue carpet; sr. QB Tharp's decisions now nearly flawless
Matchup No. 1: Vanderbilt at Tennessee, Saturday, Nov. 17, 11:00 a.m. PT
Condition: Vanderbilt
Explanation: Tennessee is 1-6 ATS since 1992 in a home game when the ?total? is between 49 1/2 and 52 points. Vanderbilt is 6-1 ATS away off back-to-back straight up and ATS losses. Tennessee is 2-16 ATS at home vs. sub-.500 conference opponent. Tennessee is 2-10 ATS as double digit favorites. Tennessee is 0-8 ATS at home vs. opponent with revenge. We'll play Vanderbilt for two units.
Matchup No. 2: Oregon State at Washington State, Saturday, Nov. 17, 3:30 p.m. PT
Condition: Oregon State
Explanation: Oregon State is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall with Washington State and 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings at Washington State. Oregon State has a 6-4 record this season while Washington State comes in at 4-6. Mike Riley will have his team ready to play in this one as they try to solidify a winning record this season and a bowl berth. We'll play Oregon State for three units.
Matchup No. 3: Boston College at Clemson, Saturday, Nov. 17, 4:45 p.m. PT (ESPN2)
Condition: Boston College
Explanation: Boston College is 2-0 SU and ATS overall vs. Clemson since 1992. Boston College is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Boston College is 30-16 ATS in all games when the line is 7 to 9 1/2. Boston College is 46-25 ATS last 71 as a road underdog. Boston College is 30-14 ATS after two losses in its last 44. Boston College is 4-0 ATS in its last four against Clemson. Boston College is 7-1 ATS as dogs less than 10 points off a straight up favorite loss. We'll play Boston College for two units.
Alex Smart
GOTY BC +8.5 6 units
Rice -2 2 units
Texas Tech +9 2 units
CKO
10 TULSA over *Army
Late Score Forecast:
TULSA 43 - *Army 17
Tulsa's undersized stop unit made it difficult for Golden Hurricane to clear some considerable pointspread hurdles in middle of season. But there's a big difference between BYU, Oklahoma, and several of the lively C-USA strike forces that scored some points vs. Tulsa "D" than the limited Army attack that has bogged down (just 9 ppg last 3 weeks). Lack of effective QB play (starter Williams only 49% completions) one of many reasons Black Knights haven't covered a pointspread since late September (0-4-1 vs. line since) or come closer than 20 in their last 4 defeats. Certainly no QB issues for Golden Hurricane, as prolific sr. Paul Smith (32 TDP) closing his career with a flourish. Scary Tulsa "O" (54 ppg last 2) fueling charge to third straight bowl game.
10 *TEMPLE over Kent State
Late Score Forecast:
*TEMPLE 27 - Kent State 19
Despite loss to ranked Penn State last week, expect top effort from Temple in final home game. Owls are much improved in HC Al Golden's second season, and have already won as many games this year as the last 3 combined. Temple QB Vaughn Charlton has proven a reliable replacement for Adam DiMichele, throwing for 399 yds. in his two starts. The Owl rush defense is one of the most improved areas of the team, as Temple, which allowed 6.0 ypc last season, has cut that down to a respectable 4.3 this year. Kent State's QB situation is a major question mark. True frosh Giorgio Morgan, who inherited the starting job through injuries to first two QBs, was injured himself against Northern Illinois, forcing HC Doug Martin to go to soph Jon Brown (16 of 34 passing). Look for Temple to bounce back with 4th MAC win.
10 UAB over *Memphis
Late Score Forecast:
UAB 31 - *Memphis 33
UAB HC Neil Callaway has done a good job keeping his young team on course for improvement despite a spate of injuries. The Blazers have covered 3 of last 4 on the road, and showed some offensive spark behind 6-3 soph QB Joseph Webb, who completed 15 of 25 passes for 3 TDs against Central Florida in his chances when rotating with sr. Sam Hunt. Memphis QB Hankins has had a hot hand, but the Memphis defense has yielded 35 ppg in last 8 contests and 5.4 ypc on the season. Memphis loves to keep things exciting (4 Tiger victories came by a total of 10 points), and this one should go down to the wire as well. UAB 6-0-1 vs. pointspread last 7 in series.
10 NORTH CAROLINA STATE
over *Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
N.C. STATE 24 - *Wake Forest 20
ACC scouts say surging NCS (4 straight wins, 5 straight covers) displaying much more esprit de corps in early practices than discouraged Wake, which won't be repeating as the ACC champ following depressing 44-10 thumping at Clemson. Fundamentally, now that Wolfpack soph RB Eugene (season-high 159 YR & 6 grabs vs. UNC) demanding constant attention, confident 6-2 jr. QB Evans (60%) should continue to work play-action passes vs. reeling Deacon 2ndary that's allowed 491 YP with no ints. last two weeks. On other hand, with athletic, aggressive NCS front 7 healthier, doubt heavily-pressured WF triggerman Skinner snaps out of current funk (only 1 TD last 2 games). And be sure State's shrewd 1st-year HC O'Brien will have his quick, jelling stop unit "staying at home" vs. Deacons myriad of misdirection plays. So, no surprise to see well-motivated 5-5 Wolfpack become bowl eligible vs. struggling Deacons in this short trip down "Tobacco Road."
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): MICHIGAN STATE (+3) vs. Penn State--First-year Spartan coach Dantonio determined to overcome MSU's reputation as late-season losers; Penn State 1-2 SU, 0-3 vs. spread on Big Ten road TY...CONNECTICUT (-19) vs. Syracuse--Huskies have covered four straight at home; their ferocious defense likely to set up some easy scores vs. limited Orange offense...BUFFALO (+1) vs. Bowling Green--Improved Bulls, who have won their last three MAC games at home, enjoyed a bye week to prepare for BG's banged-up offense, vulnerable defense...BOISE STATE (-30) vs. Idaho--Balanced Boise boys' backs ways too quick for Vandals on blue carpet; sr. QB Tharp's decisions now nearly flawless
Bettersworld
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Saturday November 17th
Penn State at Michigan State - When you look at common opponents for these two, you can draw the following conclusion. Both teams figure to be able to score. Michigan State has actually had an easier time of scoring on common opponents. The equalizer is the defense where Penn State ranks 12th in the nation while Mich State defense is getting lit up like a Christmas tree. We rarely go against our numbers. Our numbers rate this game a pick em which would dictate a play on Michigan State, however after their 2nd half collapse against Michigan two weeks ago, we're not interested. On the line here for both teams are Bowl games. For Mich State, it's whether they play in a Bowl and for Penn State it's where they play and on what day. We'll side with JoePA - Penn State -2.5
West Virginia at Cincinnati - Very similar results for these two this year as both ripped through lesser competition earlier this year yet stumbled against a couple of conference opponents. In the case of WVA, they lost to South Florida while only getting by Louisville by a TD. For Cinci, they stumbled two weeks in a row, against Pitt and Louisville before bouncing back with a win over South Florida and then Uconn. Bottom line - Two very good teams with everything on the line in the Big East. Can't resist the solid home dog here in Cinci, who is 9-1 straight up last 10 at home and could win straight up. Cincinnati +6.5
Purdue at Indiana - This is a series where Purdue has not only dominated in wins, but also on the scoreboard as the games between these two generally haven't been close. Scores like 41-14 and 63-24 Purdue are the norm going back 15 years. Purdue has won 11 of those 15. But the gap closed a bit last year with Purdue winning 28-19. We always like to take a look at teams used to getting whipped by a rival, in years where perhaps they have closed the gap. You've got a team full of Seniors that would love nothing more than to actually feel what's it's like to be on the winning side of such a rivalry. It doesn't mean much if the team is not capable of winning in the first place, but this Indiana team plenty capable. Both teams can score, both have trouble on defense. When you break it down by common opponents, of which there were five, you'll notice both teams performed similarly on the defensive side of the ball while Indiana had an easier time of putting the ball in the end zone. Look for the Hoosiers to grab a win here and lock themselves into a Bowl game for the first time since 1993. Indiana +2.5
Kentucky at Georgia - After getting pounded for so many years in this series, Kentucky finally grabbed a win last year. Georgia is 13-2 straight up, 7-0 at home in this series over the last 15 years. If Kentucky wants another series win, they better grab it now while they have the talent, before they slip back into mediocrity over the next few years. We're getting some extra line value here as a result of Georgia's impressive win over Auburn last week and Kentucky's unimpressive performances the last couple of weeks. As good as Georgia has looked at times, the games you have to look at are - 35-14 loss to Tennessee, a shoot out with Florida and Troy State and a 23-20 Bama game. All suggest that Kentucky has a heck of a shot here. This is a Kentucky team that BEAT LSU, lost a shoot out with Florida and beat Arkansas. The evidence suggests Kentucky has a shot at not just covering here, but winning straight up. All the pressure is on Georgia in this one as they need to win out to secure their spot in the SEC title game, while Kentucky is simply playing for a better Bowl Game. A loose Kentucky team is dangerous Kentucky team. We like em here. Kentucky +8 over Georgia
Ohio State at Michigan - This one would have had more value had Ohio State not lost to Illinois last week. Had they won, we would probably be looking at a 6 or 7 point line here, particularly if they won big. We have maintained from the get go that Ohio State not invincible. They would be a .500 team in the SEC. Of course, Michigan nothing to write home about lately either, losing last week to Wisky and almost losing at Michigan State. It's safe to say both of these squads suffered from a classic look ahead situation last week. When these two clash, expect the unexpected. Expect a great game regardless of what's on the line. Check this - The last 15 years, each team has 7 wins in this series, with 1 tie. Average score - 22-21 Michigan. What's on the line? How about this. The Big 10 title and a spot in the Rose Bowl, not to mention Ohio State will still bark for recognition as a #1 should they win out from here. Want more? How about this potentially being Lloyd Carr's final game? Plenty of emotion in this one. This game still circled due to the questionable status of QB Chad Henne for Michigan and Running back Mike Hart. Expect both to play. Bottom line? When you filter out the garbage games and look strictly at the common opponents of which there are 7, this game shakes out as dead even. Slightest of edges to Ohio State but that's before factoring in home field and motivational edges in favor of Michigan. How fitting it would be for Michigan, after starting 0-2 and losing to App St while folks were calling for Carr's head, to end up Big 10 champs and playing in the Rose Bowl. Getting +4.5 is more than enough here. Michigan +4.5
Maryland at Florida State - Just can't see laying over a touchdown with Florida State over a scrappy Maryland team trying to keep their Bowl hopes alive. Not a strong call here but MD is the play - Maryland +7.5
Trey Johnsons 75% Big Bad Blowout of the Month!
3* Selection
#341 Oklahoma St (-) over Baylor at 7:00 PM EST
After dropping back-to-back Big 12 battles to Texas and Kansas the Cowboys find themselves at 5-5 (3-3 Big 12) and in desperate need to win out to get back into bowl contention. A trip to Waco to face a dismal Baylor squad just might be exactly what the doctor ordered.
Baylor has dropped all seven of their Big 12 games this season by an average of 30 points. Ouch! I don?t expect things to improve today against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS against Baylor since 1983. They hold a 6-2 ATS advantage in their last eight meetings and are a solid 7-3 ATS in their last ten as a conference road favorite.
With their season on the line and a match-up next week against #3 Oklahoma look for the Cowboys to take care of business here.
Play Oklahoma St minus the points.
Trey Johnsons Conference Crusher of the Week!
#325 Purdue (-) over Indiana at 3:30 PM EST
It took the Hoosiers three tries to get that sixth win and become bowl eligible. Off a heart breaking loss last week against Northwestern they have one more chance to up their win total to seven and improve their odds of landing a 13th game. Unfortunately for Indiana they will be playing in-state rival Purdue. The Boilermakers are in desperate need of a win also after dropping four of their last six.
Purdue is sitting in the middle of the pack right now at 7-4 (3-4 Big 10) knowing a bowl game isn?t a given. A win here and they all but lock up a bowl invitation finishing with an 8-4 overall record. The Boilermakers have taken home the coveted ?Old Oaken Bucket?, which is given to the winning team in this contest, nine of the last 10 years. During that stretch Purdue holds a 6-4 ATS advantage. They hold a 2-1 ATS edge against the Hoosiers over the last three seasons.
After dropping four of their last five we expect the Hoosiers to give it their all here but Purdue has dominated lately winning nine of the last ten by an average of 26 points per game. That domination continues today! Play Purdue (-).
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Saturday November 17th
Penn State at Michigan State - When you look at common opponents for these two, you can draw the following conclusion. Both teams figure to be able to score. Michigan State has actually had an easier time of scoring on common opponents. The equalizer is the defense where Penn State ranks 12th in the nation while Mich State defense is getting lit up like a Christmas tree. We rarely go against our numbers. Our numbers rate this game a pick em which would dictate a play on Michigan State, however after their 2nd half collapse against Michigan two weeks ago, we're not interested. On the line here for both teams are Bowl games. For Mich State, it's whether they play in a Bowl and for Penn State it's where they play and on what day. We'll side with JoePA - Penn State -2.5
West Virginia at Cincinnati - Very similar results for these two this year as both ripped through lesser competition earlier this year yet stumbled against a couple of conference opponents. In the case of WVA, they lost to South Florida while only getting by Louisville by a TD. For Cinci, they stumbled two weeks in a row, against Pitt and Louisville before bouncing back with a win over South Florida and then Uconn. Bottom line - Two very good teams with everything on the line in the Big East. Can't resist the solid home dog here in Cinci, who is 9-1 straight up last 10 at home and could win straight up. Cincinnati +6.5
Purdue at Indiana - This is a series where Purdue has not only dominated in wins, but also on the scoreboard as the games between these two generally haven't been close. Scores like 41-14 and 63-24 Purdue are the norm going back 15 years. Purdue has won 11 of those 15. But the gap closed a bit last year with Purdue winning 28-19. We always like to take a look at teams used to getting whipped by a rival, in years where perhaps they have closed the gap. You've got a team full of Seniors that would love nothing more than to actually feel what's it's like to be on the winning side of such a rivalry. It doesn't mean much if the team is not capable of winning in the first place, but this Indiana team plenty capable. Both teams can score, both have trouble on defense. When you break it down by common opponents, of which there were five, you'll notice both teams performed similarly on the defensive side of the ball while Indiana had an easier time of putting the ball in the end zone. Look for the Hoosiers to grab a win here and lock themselves into a Bowl game for the first time since 1993. Indiana +2.5
Kentucky at Georgia - After getting pounded for so many years in this series, Kentucky finally grabbed a win last year. Georgia is 13-2 straight up, 7-0 at home in this series over the last 15 years. If Kentucky wants another series win, they better grab it now while they have the talent, before they slip back into mediocrity over the next few years. We're getting some extra line value here as a result of Georgia's impressive win over Auburn last week and Kentucky's unimpressive performances the last couple of weeks. As good as Georgia has looked at times, the games you have to look at are - 35-14 loss to Tennessee, a shoot out with Florida and Troy State and a 23-20 Bama game. All suggest that Kentucky has a heck of a shot here. This is a Kentucky team that BEAT LSU, lost a shoot out with Florida and beat Arkansas. The evidence suggests Kentucky has a shot at not just covering here, but winning straight up. All the pressure is on Georgia in this one as they need to win out to secure their spot in the SEC title game, while Kentucky is simply playing for a better Bowl Game. A loose Kentucky team is dangerous Kentucky team. We like em here. Kentucky +8 over Georgia
Ohio State at Michigan - This one would have had more value had Ohio State not lost to Illinois last week. Had they won, we would probably be looking at a 6 or 7 point line here, particularly if they won big. We have maintained from the get go that Ohio State not invincible. They would be a .500 team in the SEC. Of course, Michigan nothing to write home about lately either, losing last week to Wisky and almost losing at Michigan State. It's safe to say both of these squads suffered from a classic look ahead situation last week. When these two clash, expect the unexpected. Expect a great game regardless of what's on the line. Check this - The last 15 years, each team has 7 wins in this series, with 1 tie. Average score - 22-21 Michigan. What's on the line? How about this. The Big 10 title and a spot in the Rose Bowl, not to mention Ohio State will still bark for recognition as a #1 should they win out from here. Want more? How about this potentially being Lloyd Carr's final game? Plenty of emotion in this one. This game still circled due to the questionable status of QB Chad Henne for Michigan and Running back Mike Hart. Expect both to play. Bottom line? When you filter out the garbage games and look strictly at the common opponents of which there are 7, this game shakes out as dead even. Slightest of edges to Ohio State but that's before factoring in home field and motivational edges in favor of Michigan. How fitting it would be for Michigan, after starting 0-2 and losing to App St while folks were calling for Carr's head, to end up Big 10 champs and playing in the Rose Bowl. Getting +4.5 is more than enough here. Michigan +4.5
Maryland at Florida State - Just can't see laying over a touchdown with Florida State over a scrappy Maryland team trying to keep their Bowl hopes alive. Not a strong call here but MD is the play - Maryland +7.5
Trey Johnsons 75% Big Bad Blowout of the Month!
3* Selection
#341 Oklahoma St (-) over Baylor at 7:00 PM EST
After dropping back-to-back Big 12 battles to Texas and Kansas the Cowboys find themselves at 5-5 (3-3 Big 12) and in desperate need to win out to get back into bowl contention. A trip to Waco to face a dismal Baylor squad just might be exactly what the doctor ordered.
Baylor has dropped all seven of their Big 12 games this season by an average of 30 points. Ouch! I don?t expect things to improve today against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS against Baylor since 1983. They hold a 6-2 ATS advantage in their last eight meetings and are a solid 7-3 ATS in their last ten as a conference road favorite.
With their season on the line and a match-up next week against #3 Oklahoma look for the Cowboys to take care of business here.
Play Oklahoma St minus the points.
Trey Johnsons Conference Crusher of the Week!
#325 Purdue (-) over Indiana at 3:30 PM EST
It took the Hoosiers three tries to get that sixth win and become bowl eligible. Off a heart breaking loss last week against Northwestern they have one more chance to up their win total to seven and improve their odds of landing a 13th game. Unfortunately for Indiana they will be playing in-state rival Purdue. The Boilermakers are in desperate need of a win also after dropping four of their last six.
Purdue is sitting in the middle of the pack right now at 7-4 (3-4 Big 10) knowing a bowl game isn?t a given. A win here and they all but lock up a bowl invitation finishing with an 8-4 overall record. The Boilermakers have taken home the coveted ?Old Oaken Bucket?, which is given to the winning team in this contest, nine of the last 10 years. During that stretch Purdue holds a 6-4 ATS advantage. They hold a 2-1 ATS edge against the Hoosiers over the last three seasons.
After dropping four of their last five we expect the Hoosiers to give it their all here but Purdue has dominated lately winning nine of the last ten by an average of 26 points per game. That domination continues today! Play Purdue (-).
cowtown sports
2 ohio st
2 indiana
ed slick
temple
mich.st.
wyo.
headquarters
5 ohio st. under
5 flor. st. over
dolphin
3 lsu
3 georgia
3 houst.
hsw comps
navy
lsu
notre dame
comps:
R&R Totals
FREE PLAY: Over 48 1/2 Ohio State/Michigan (CFB)
Mikey Sports
FREE PLAY: James Madison -4 1/2 (CBB)
Guaranteed Cappers Lock Club
TOP FREE PLAY: Kansas State +7 1/2 (CFB)
ultra spts
5 nc. st.
5 clem.
4 mich.
3 purd.
3 k.st.
Vegashotsheet.com
premier picks:
1. Oklahoma -15
2. California -7
3. Oklahoma St. -15
silver rated picks:
1. Buffalo -1.5
2. Notre Dame -5.5
3. Houston -11.5
4. Michigan +4
5. New Mexico -14.5
6. Northwestern +13.5
Cowherd
Ohio State
Kentucky
Kansas State
Notre Dame
2 ohio st
2 indiana
ed slick
temple
mich.st.
wyo.
headquarters
5 ohio st. under
5 flor. st. over
dolphin
3 lsu
3 georgia
3 houst.
hsw comps
navy
lsu
notre dame
comps:
R&R Totals
FREE PLAY: Over 48 1/2 Ohio State/Michigan (CFB)
Mikey Sports
FREE PLAY: James Madison -4 1/2 (CBB)
Guaranteed Cappers Lock Club
TOP FREE PLAY: Kansas State +7 1/2 (CFB)
ultra spts
5 nc. st.
5 clem.
4 mich.
3 purd.
3 k.st.
Vegashotsheet.com
premier picks:
1. Oklahoma -15
2. California -7
3. Oklahoma St. -15
silver rated picks:
1. Buffalo -1.5
2. Notre Dame -5.5
3. Houston -11.5
4. Michigan +4
5. New Mexico -14.5
6. Northwestern +13.5
Cowherd
Ohio State
Kentucky
Kansas State
Notre Dame
Stan Sharp | CFB Side
triple-dime bet319 Penn St. -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 320 Michigan St.
Analysis: All 3 of Stan's Top College Football Bettors agree that Penn St is the side today. The Penn St defense will be the difference in this contest as Penn St has held 5 of their last opponents to 87 yards or less rushing. Only Ohio St was able to crack the 100 yard mark in the last 6 games. Michigan St on the other hand has given up 173 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games on the ground. Penn St has rushed for 192 yards or more in 5 of their last 6 games and that will be the difference in this game. TAKE PENN ST as STAN SHARP'S 2007 COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY***This information is strictly for your own personal use anyone caught posting these plays or giving them to someone who posts these plays will have their subscription immediately terminated without a refund.***
triple-dime bet319 Penn St. -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 320 Michigan St.
Analysis: All 3 of Stan's Top College Football Bettors agree that Penn St is the side today. The Penn St defense will be the difference in this contest as Penn St has held 5 of their last opponents to 87 yards or less rushing. Only Ohio St was able to crack the 100 yard mark in the last 6 games. Michigan St on the other hand has given up 173 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games on the ground. Penn St has rushed for 192 yards or more in 5 of their last 6 games and that will be the difference in this game. TAKE PENN ST as STAN SHARP'S 2007 COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY***This information is strictly for your own personal use anyone caught posting these plays or giving them to someone who posts these plays will have their subscription immediately terminated without a refund.***
Ethan Law
2* BUFFALO PICK?EM
1* SOUTH FLORIDA -8.5
1* K-STATE +7.5
1* NW +14
1* MICHIGAN +4
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OPINION SELECTIONS:
1/2* SAN DIEGO STATE +11
1/2* BAYLOR +14
1/2* MINNESOTA +14
1/2* TEXAS TECH +7.5
1/2* LOUISIANA TECH -5.5
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BOWLING GREEN (6-4) at BUFFALO (4-6)
We are going to turn our attention to one of the least looked at games on the board in terms on numbers of bets placed on this contest and hope to find a nice selection with some nice value. As usual, Bowling Green (6-4 SU & 4-4 ATS) has a very potent passing offense, averaging 31 points and 300 yards in the air per game. They are led by sophomore quarterback Tyler Sheehan who has played well and his wide receivers are among the best in the MAC with Freddie Barnes, Chris Wright and Marques Parks, however they will be without the services of their star running back/wide receiver Eric Ransom (knee) who is out indefinitely. Ransom had emerged as Bowling Green?s top running back, so his absence could be a big blow considering that they would become very one dimensional. Like most of the teams in the MAC, their defense has been a big concern this season as they are giving up a whipping 34 points per game, with many of those points coming due to the fact that their rushing defense is atrocious. Indeed, in last week's 39-32 win at Eastern Michigan, they gave up a whopping 269 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Buffalo has the situational advantage here having had two weeks to prepare for this home contest and the Bulls are 4-2 in the MAC East, battling Miami of Ohio for first place. Buffalo (4-6 SU & 6-4 ATS) has an improving offense with quarterback Drew Willy and running back RB James Starks running the show. Buffalo scored 31 on Ohio, 43 on Toledo and 28 on Miami of Ohio the last game. Unfortunately they lost 31-28 to Miami, giving their division title hopes a bit of a setback. On defense, Buffalo has been much better the Bowling Green allowing 11 points fewer at just 23 points per contest and 3.9 yards per carry in MAC play.
When the opening line came out on this contest I was very surprised to Buffalo open up as a home underdog. Indeed, Buffalo is undefeated in MAC play at home this season and this will be their final home game of the season adding to the motivational edge to the Bulls. Despite the loss to Miami of Ohio last weekend, lets not forget that this is still a Buffalo team that nevertheless has an outside shot at the MAC East title if they win their next two contests. On paper, Buffalo has played a much tougher schedule, and have showed well against superior programs. On paper, they also have the superior defense and rushing attack, so Buffalo should definitely be able to control the time of possession and win the running battle. These teams have 4 common opponents, and the Bulls have superior stats against those opponents in 3 out of 4 games. The word on the street is that Buffalo possession the MAC's 12th best pass defense, but that fact is a bit misleading when you consider that they have only allowed two 300-yard games so far with a win (Toledo) in one of those games. While the Falcon offense might be humming it's not doing much to stop decent ground games, and Buffalo has found a lot of success running the ball on bad teams. With the extra preparation, the motivational and fundamental edges it?s hard to believe that there is a better play on the board this Saturday. Simply put the wrong team is favored in this contest.
Verdict: Bowling Green 24, Buffalo 31
PLAY 2* UNITS ON BUFFALO PICK?EM
LOUISVILLE (5-5) at S FLORIDA (7-3)
One of the most intriguing match-ups of the day takes place in South Florida Saturday night, where Louisville (5-5 SU & 3-6 ATS) looks to keep its slim bowl hopes alive. The fact that Louisville is not already qualified for a bowl is one of the bigger surprises of this college football season as they have been by far one of the bigger disappointments of this season. Unexpected losses to Syracuse, Kentucky and Utah have left the Cardinals in a must-win situation their last 2 games. Even if they are fortunate enough to win this week, they must win again 12 days later against Rutgers at home, which is a very daunting task to say the least. They may have breathed their final breath as bowl hopefuls when their late comeback against the Mountaineers fell short. Meanwhile, South Florida (7-3 SU & 5-4 ATS) looked to be on their way to a storybook season after winning their first 6 games. Recent losses to Rutgers, UConn and Cincinnati have taken them completely out of the BCS bowl picture. Hardly any of those games could be classified as a "bad" loss, as all 3 are extremely talented squads. Cincinnati, in fact, may be the most underrated team in the whole country. They provided us with an easy 27-3 winner (-6) over UConn just last week.
The key to this play is the total disparity in defenses between these 2 teams, and also the match-up problems created there-in. Louisville is an offensively driven team, relying on quarterback Brian Brohm to supply most of the firepower. New coach, Steve Kragthorpe, has installed his wide-open offensive system that he brought over from Tulsa, but one thing is missing, a reliable running game. Past Louisville teams were unstoppable as they had balance and unpredictability, this team does not. In each of the past 5 games they have been held to 3.1 yards per carry or less. This lack of success has put extreme pressure on Brohm to play well, and he has performed admirably. Against South Florida he will not find his wide receivers as open as he is used to. The Bulls have possibly the best pair of corner backs on one team in the country, and the #19 rated defense in the country, giving them the ability to slow down the Cardinals vaunted passing attack. A ferocious pass rush led by All-American candidate defensive end George Selvie will force Brohm to unload passes much earlier than he would like, to well covered receivers, a true recipe for turnovers. When they do try to run, they will find little if any room against a Bull run-stop unit giving up only 3.06 yards per carry on the ground. The unstoppable rush offense of West Virginia was able to only gain 3.9 yards per carry against them, Louisville will be lucky to average much more than 2 yards per carry. Offensively, the Bulls should be able to run or pass, whatever they choose to do against the Cardinals 71st ranked stop unit. Louisville allows 166 yards per carry on the ground and 245 yards per carry through the air, showing little ability to defend either. Opponents gash Louisville for 4.53 yards on the ground and an unsightly 8.03 yards per pass play! In their last home game, South Florida gained 481 total yards, 382 of that came through the air. That was against an extremely tough Cincinnati Bearcat defense, a defense which Louisville's does not in the least resemble. South Florida, in fact, only lost that day due to a season high 8 turnovers!
The line on this game opened at South Florida -7 across the board, where is stayed put till vigorous action on South Florida Thursday evening and Friday morning pushed the number as high as 8.5. I think this can be attributed to "sharp players" waiting out a possible line movement to 6.5. Seeing Vegas stand pat on 7, they made their move. This line movement will only draw more Louisville money come Saturday morning. Each of the past 4 games in this series have been won & covered by the home team, Louisville winning at home 31-8 last year, providing the Bulls with revenge today at home. South Florida is not an obliging host, as they have gone 13-7 ATS their last 20 as home favorites. They are 4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS at home this season, the only loss being that 8 turnover game facing the Bearcats. 6 defensive starters will be playing their final home game, and will be psyched to end make their final home game a memorable one. South Florida is 9-2 SU and 7-2 ATS at home recently. We are taking the FAR superior defensive team at home, where they have gone 11-3 SU their last 14 games. They still have New Years day bowl aspirations and should play with intensity against a "dead in the water" Louisville team with little hope.
Verdict: South Florida 37 Louisville 20
PLAY 1* UNIT ON SOUTH FLORIDA -8.5
MISSOURI (9-1) at KANSAS ST (5-5)
One of the more entertaining games Saturday may be taking place in Manhattan, Kansas, where the Missouri Tigers (9-1 SU & 8-1 ATS) will meet Kansas St. Both of these teams have high-powered offenses and suspect defenses, meaning the scoreboard should be getting a workout. K-State (5-5 SU & 6-3 ATS is coming off a 73-31 shellacking at the hands of lightly regarded Nebraska, a game in which they game up 702 yards in total offense! They got ambushed by a Cornhusker squad that had taken it's share of abuse from the media and it's own fans, and they responded with a performance that, to say the least, took K-State by surprise. In that game Kansas St allowed 519 yards passing, and they now must contend with Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel, who leads the Tigers passing attack, which is ranked 6th in the country yards per game. However, all is not lost for the Wildcats though, as even though Daniel played superbly last week against Texas A&M (27-35, 352 yards, 3touchdowns, no interceptions) his team could not put away the Aggies. A&M moved the ball successfully all day against the Missouri defense, and Texas A&M's offense is pedestrian at best, ranked 61st in the country. Against the pass is where Missouri really struggles though. Entering that game Texas A&M had only been averaging 163 yards per game through the air. Against Missouri they were able to pass for 247 yards averaging 8.8 yards per attempt! Those are mind boggling numbers for a bad passing team like A&M, one has to wonder what the #16 ranked passing attack of Kansas St will be able to do.
Ok, we've established K-State will move the ball, but the real key in this game is the motivational spot for both of these teams. Missouri has their biggest game of the season coming NEXT week when they play undefeated Kansas. The impact of seeing Nebraska humiliate the Wildcats so easily may allow them to dismiss this game as a win, and that will be a huge mistake. It also adds some substantial value to the line. Kansas is one of the very toughest venues in the Big-12, if not the country to play an away contest. K-State was humiliated last week by Nebraska, it is now their turn to prove that game was a fluke. K-State is also playing with revenge, having lost 41-21 last year in Missouri, the Tigers 1st win in the series following 13 straight losses. Teams that are backed into a corner usually come out fighting, the added motivation of needing a win for a bowl bid will certainly increase the urgency with which the Wildcats play. Why do ranked teams so often stumble the week before their biggest game of the year? It is almost impossible for these young men to NOT look ahead to next week's match-up with Kansas. Somebody may want to ask Ohio St, since they lost straight up to Illinois last week anticipating their rivalry game against Michigan this week.
The line on this game opened at 8 in Vegas, and despite nearly 90% of all wagers coming in on Missouri, the line has gone down to 7.5. At BetCris the line even momentarily went to 6.5! There is not only a high % of wagers on Missouri, but this is also the game on Saturday they have taken the most bets on. Such a high volume of wagers on Missouri and they moved the line against the money, to say we are on the side the books will be rooting for is an understatement! Besides the above stated emotional and situational edges for Kansas St, there are several technical trends which back our play also. Missouri is 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS traveling to K-State (with an average loss by 26 pts). When home dogs these Cats have sharp claws, going 7-2 ATS last 9 tries. Playing at home with conf revenge K-State is also 7-2 ATS. In home finales they are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS. The undefeated Kansas Jayhawks were lucky enough to escape Manhattan with a 6 point win, the Missouri Tigers will not be so fortunate.
Verdict: Kansas St 41 Missouri 31
PLAY 1* UNIT ON K-STATE +7.5
NW (6-5) at ILLINOIS (8-3)
This is an interesting Big 10 match-up between Illinois and NW who will fight it out for possible bowl ramifications. Illinois (8-3 SU & 6-4 ATS) has speed with mobile sophomore quarterback Juice Williams and running back Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall has run for 1,402 yards this season, averaging a whopping 6.0 yards per carry! Led by a career-high four touchdown passes Illinois stunned top-ranked Ohio State 28-21 last Saturday. The Buckeyes had been allowing only 43.2 rushing yards against Big Ten opponents, until Illinois put up 260 last weekend. The fighting Illini also ended Wisconsin's 14-game winning streak, too, then the longest in the nation. Meanwhile, NW (6-5 SU & 4-6 ATS) was stumbling until last weekends win against Indiana and this is their season finale so a win here means a winning record a bowl appearance. The Wildcats have a deadly offense that averages 26 points and 270 yards passing. They had a shocking 48-41 win at Michigan State as the offense rolled up 611 yards. Their pass defense is nothing short of terrible giving up 237 yards and 38 points per game in conference play, but they do have a decent run defense, which will need to be at their best against a very good Illinois team.
We picked up a nice premium selection in on NW last week and I see not need to fade them this week despite the fact that they are playing a superior team. Let?s also not forget that this is a NW team that that actually out-gained Michigan and are still an impressive 8-3 ?in the stats? this season (meaning that they out-yarded their opponents). From a motivational standpoint, NW sits at 6-5 and needs one more win to guarantee a bowl trip, while Illinois has already virtually assured themselves a trip to somewhere good in December after their monumental win last week over then No. 1 Ohio State. The win over Ohio Sate was arguably the biggest win in the last 10 or so years for that program and it is quite possible that Illinois is still celebrating so a flat effort is quite possible. In contrast, NW views the Illinois game as its game of the year and, this year, the Wildcats need a win to get into a bowl game. The Illinois secondary can be exploited, which is very good news for one of the top passing teams in the nation. Look for the Wildcats to come out firing the ball challenging the venerable secondary from the start. Whether out of necessity (Wisconsin) or by design (Michigan), teams that have made sure to not go away from the passing game have been able to hang up big yards against Illinois. Two weeks ago I discussed the return of NW?s star running back Tyrell Sutton. Well through 29 career games, Sutton is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 94.1 rushing yards per career outing. He has scored 28 career touchdowns, 24 rushing and four receiving. For those who unfamiliar with Sutton he is an ultra explosive running back who will further the success of the NW Passing attack one that already ranks 6th in the nation. Fundamentally, the Wildcat offense is one of the few in the country that can keep up some of the elite teams in the nation. From the technical standpoint, it should be noted that NW has had few problems with Illinois recently, winning four in a row SU and covering six of seven. Moreover, favorites who are off a SU win as a +14 underdog spot after game six against winning teams since 1990 are just 2-15 ATS! Do we really need to know anything else? I think not.
Verdict: Illinois 34, NW 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NW +14
OHIO ST (10-1) at MICHIGAN (8-3)
Here we go?lock and load the winner of this contest is the Big 10 champion and gets a birth in the Rose bowl! I absolutely love these rivalry contests and this one means the most to the home underdog so we know from the start we are going to get a very motivated effort from Michigan this weekend. From the very start of the season I was a big supporter of the Michigan team (8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS) who has finally put things together after their terrible start of the season by winning 8 in a row. The shocking 34-32 home loss to two-time defending I-AA champion Appalachian State and a 39-7 loss at home to Oregon are in the past now. The loss to Oregon isn?t as shocking now as we have been able to see just how dangerous that team really is this season. As a result of their recent streak, Michigan is now 5-1 in the Big 10, but are coming off a rather shocking (albeit not surprising loss) at the hands of Wisconson. In that game Michigan played without injured RB Mike Hart (right ankle spraing), and freshman quarterback Ryan Mallett relieved ailing Chad Henne (nagging right shoulder injury) in the first quarter. The main weapon of this balanced offense is their running back, Mike Hart who has missed 3 1/2 games since appearing to injure his right ankle. It should be noted that both Hart and Henne are expected to start in the contest and both are near 100% physically. Meanwhile, their opponent, Ohio State (10-1 SU & 6-4 ATS) is off their first loss of the season, seeing the possibility of playing for a national championship go down the tubes. The Buckeyes have been working in a new quarterback all season in Todd Boeckman (3 interceptions against Illinois Saturday), so this deep and talented defense is carrying the load. The conservative offense averages over 200 yards rushing and passing per game (although they have been destroying Big 10 opposition by a 32-14 average this season!) The defense is allowing 13 points, 175 pass yards, 75 yards rushing (just 2.8 yards per rush), led by line backers James Laurinaitis, Marcus Freeman and junior cornerback Malcolm *******. In the lose to Illinois the Ohio State defense was finally exposed by an elite rushing attack to the tune of 400 yards!
Those who follow me know that I only use the technical?s as a small amount of my overall handicapping ideology, but with that said we do have some good ones to start off this analysis. First we know that Michigan is 6-3 under the total this season and even more impressive 11-3 UNDER against conference opponents over the last two (2) seasons. The fact that Michigan has played under isn?t all that surprising as they traditionally have a very good defense and this year is no exception as they come into this contest with the a defense ranked 21st in the nation in total and scoring defense. Since giving up 331 yards to Oregon, Michigan?s defense has shut down or contained most opposing runners in the Big Ten, as evidenced by yielding 101, 137, 132, and 191 rushing yards to Penn State, Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan State offenses that average 181, 240, 174, and 213, until last weeks 477 put up by Wisconsin. However, it should be noted that last week?s game in Wisconsin had no bearing on the Michigan season. Some experts believe that Michigan has a comparable defense to former BCS No 1 Ohio State who held MSU too just 185 total yards of offense, but then allowed Illinois to put up over 400 as well last weekend. Michigan also held arguably the best rushing attack in the conference in Illinois? running attack to under 140 yards rushing so this is a team that is more then capable in stopping the run (Ohio State gave up 260 against Illinois). The Michigan defense has also kept the passing attack in check as they are allowing under 190 yards passing.
Motivationally, non of the Michigan star players, Henne, Hart and Long have beaten Ohio State and they haven't won a bowl game and this is the game they have wanted all season. The trio of seniors has seniority edges over their Buckeyes? counterparts so experience might be a big factor in a game of this importance. Fundamentally, Michigan has unit-on-unit match-up advantages over Ohio State as the Wolverines are averaging 179 yards rushing and should be able to move the ball against the Buckeyes who were exposed last week on defense. As stated above, the supposedly impenetrable Ohio State secondary gave up four touchdown passes to Juice Williams last week; one of the nation's most inefficient passers. The Buckeyes have faced one great receiving corps this year, Purdue's and gave up 268 yards and a touchdown in the easy win. Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington are playing extremely well and should stretch things out enough to keep the safeties deep. On special teams, it should be noted that Ohio State ranks dead last in country on kick-off returns so a quick score should not be a factor to worry about in this contest. We also have some strong technical data to support the home team as Michigan is an incredible 38-5 SU off a loss in BIG 10 games since 1969! Take those points but you should not need them.
Verdict: Ohio St 21, Michigan 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MICHIGAN +4
Rankings --
5* MY "ONE AND ONLY" GOY (9-1 90% LAST 6 SEASONS)
3* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8) LAST 6 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
2* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY - OVER 66%
1* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
OPINION PLAY: MAY WIN BUT TO WATCH A GAME OR LEAN - 1/2 A UNIT.
2* BUFFALO PICK?EM
1* SOUTH FLORIDA -8.5
1* K-STATE +7.5
1* NW +14
1* MICHIGAN +4
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OPINION SELECTIONS:
1/2* SAN DIEGO STATE +11
1/2* BAYLOR +14
1/2* MINNESOTA +14
1/2* TEXAS TECH +7.5
1/2* LOUISIANA TECH -5.5
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BOWLING GREEN (6-4) at BUFFALO (4-6)
We are going to turn our attention to one of the least looked at games on the board in terms on numbers of bets placed on this contest and hope to find a nice selection with some nice value. As usual, Bowling Green (6-4 SU & 4-4 ATS) has a very potent passing offense, averaging 31 points and 300 yards in the air per game. They are led by sophomore quarterback Tyler Sheehan who has played well and his wide receivers are among the best in the MAC with Freddie Barnes, Chris Wright and Marques Parks, however they will be without the services of their star running back/wide receiver Eric Ransom (knee) who is out indefinitely. Ransom had emerged as Bowling Green?s top running back, so his absence could be a big blow considering that they would become very one dimensional. Like most of the teams in the MAC, their defense has been a big concern this season as they are giving up a whipping 34 points per game, with many of those points coming due to the fact that their rushing defense is atrocious. Indeed, in last week's 39-32 win at Eastern Michigan, they gave up a whopping 269 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Buffalo has the situational advantage here having had two weeks to prepare for this home contest and the Bulls are 4-2 in the MAC East, battling Miami of Ohio for first place. Buffalo (4-6 SU & 6-4 ATS) has an improving offense with quarterback Drew Willy and running back RB James Starks running the show. Buffalo scored 31 on Ohio, 43 on Toledo and 28 on Miami of Ohio the last game. Unfortunately they lost 31-28 to Miami, giving their division title hopes a bit of a setback. On defense, Buffalo has been much better the Bowling Green allowing 11 points fewer at just 23 points per contest and 3.9 yards per carry in MAC play.
When the opening line came out on this contest I was very surprised to Buffalo open up as a home underdog. Indeed, Buffalo is undefeated in MAC play at home this season and this will be their final home game of the season adding to the motivational edge to the Bulls. Despite the loss to Miami of Ohio last weekend, lets not forget that this is still a Buffalo team that nevertheless has an outside shot at the MAC East title if they win their next two contests. On paper, Buffalo has played a much tougher schedule, and have showed well against superior programs. On paper, they also have the superior defense and rushing attack, so Buffalo should definitely be able to control the time of possession and win the running battle. These teams have 4 common opponents, and the Bulls have superior stats against those opponents in 3 out of 4 games. The word on the street is that Buffalo possession the MAC's 12th best pass defense, but that fact is a bit misleading when you consider that they have only allowed two 300-yard games so far with a win (Toledo) in one of those games. While the Falcon offense might be humming it's not doing much to stop decent ground games, and Buffalo has found a lot of success running the ball on bad teams. With the extra preparation, the motivational and fundamental edges it?s hard to believe that there is a better play on the board this Saturday. Simply put the wrong team is favored in this contest.
Verdict: Bowling Green 24, Buffalo 31
PLAY 2* UNITS ON BUFFALO PICK?EM
LOUISVILLE (5-5) at S FLORIDA (7-3)
One of the most intriguing match-ups of the day takes place in South Florida Saturday night, where Louisville (5-5 SU & 3-6 ATS) looks to keep its slim bowl hopes alive. The fact that Louisville is not already qualified for a bowl is one of the bigger surprises of this college football season as they have been by far one of the bigger disappointments of this season. Unexpected losses to Syracuse, Kentucky and Utah have left the Cardinals in a must-win situation their last 2 games. Even if they are fortunate enough to win this week, they must win again 12 days later against Rutgers at home, which is a very daunting task to say the least. They may have breathed their final breath as bowl hopefuls when their late comeback against the Mountaineers fell short. Meanwhile, South Florida (7-3 SU & 5-4 ATS) looked to be on their way to a storybook season after winning their first 6 games. Recent losses to Rutgers, UConn and Cincinnati have taken them completely out of the BCS bowl picture. Hardly any of those games could be classified as a "bad" loss, as all 3 are extremely talented squads. Cincinnati, in fact, may be the most underrated team in the whole country. They provided us with an easy 27-3 winner (-6) over UConn just last week.
The key to this play is the total disparity in defenses between these 2 teams, and also the match-up problems created there-in. Louisville is an offensively driven team, relying on quarterback Brian Brohm to supply most of the firepower. New coach, Steve Kragthorpe, has installed his wide-open offensive system that he brought over from Tulsa, but one thing is missing, a reliable running game. Past Louisville teams were unstoppable as they had balance and unpredictability, this team does not. In each of the past 5 games they have been held to 3.1 yards per carry or less. This lack of success has put extreme pressure on Brohm to play well, and he has performed admirably. Against South Florida he will not find his wide receivers as open as he is used to. The Bulls have possibly the best pair of corner backs on one team in the country, and the #19 rated defense in the country, giving them the ability to slow down the Cardinals vaunted passing attack. A ferocious pass rush led by All-American candidate defensive end George Selvie will force Brohm to unload passes much earlier than he would like, to well covered receivers, a true recipe for turnovers. When they do try to run, they will find little if any room against a Bull run-stop unit giving up only 3.06 yards per carry on the ground. The unstoppable rush offense of West Virginia was able to only gain 3.9 yards per carry against them, Louisville will be lucky to average much more than 2 yards per carry. Offensively, the Bulls should be able to run or pass, whatever they choose to do against the Cardinals 71st ranked stop unit. Louisville allows 166 yards per carry on the ground and 245 yards per carry through the air, showing little ability to defend either. Opponents gash Louisville for 4.53 yards on the ground and an unsightly 8.03 yards per pass play! In their last home game, South Florida gained 481 total yards, 382 of that came through the air. That was against an extremely tough Cincinnati Bearcat defense, a defense which Louisville's does not in the least resemble. South Florida, in fact, only lost that day due to a season high 8 turnovers!
The line on this game opened at South Florida -7 across the board, where is stayed put till vigorous action on South Florida Thursday evening and Friday morning pushed the number as high as 8.5. I think this can be attributed to "sharp players" waiting out a possible line movement to 6.5. Seeing Vegas stand pat on 7, they made their move. This line movement will only draw more Louisville money come Saturday morning. Each of the past 4 games in this series have been won & covered by the home team, Louisville winning at home 31-8 last year, providing the Bulls with revenge today at home. South Florida is not an obliging host, as they have gone 13-7 ATS their last 20 as home favorites. They are 4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS at home this season, the only loss being that 8 turnover game facing the Bearcats. 6 defensive starters will be playing their final home game, and will be psyched to end make their final home game a memorable one. South Florida is 9-2 SU and 7-2 ATS at home recently. We are taking the FAR superior defensive team at home, where they have gone 11-3 SU their last 14 games. They still have New Years day bowl aspirations and should play with intensity against a "dead in the water" Louisville team with little hope.
Verdict: South Florida 37 Louisville 20
PLAY 1* UNIT ON SOUTH FLORIDA -8.5
MISSOURI (9-1) at KANSAS ST (5-5)
One of the more entertaining games Saturday may be taking place in Manhattan, Kansas, where the Missouri Tigers (9-1 SU & 8-1 ATS) will meet Kansas St. Both of these teams have high-powered offenses and suspect defenses, meaning the scoreboard should be getting a workout. K-State (5-5 SU & 6-3 ATS is coming off a 73-31 shellacking at the hands of lightly regarded Nebraska, a game in which they game up 702 yards in total offense! They got ambushed by a Cornhusker squad that had taken it's share of abuse from the media and it's own fans, and they responded with a performance that, to say the least, took K-State by surprise. In that game Kansas St allowed 519 yards passing, and they now must contend with Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel, who leads the Tigers passing attack, which is ranked 6th in the country yards per game. However, all is not lost for the Wildcats though, as even though Daniel played superbly last week against Texas A&M (27-35, 352 yards, 3touchdowns, no interceptions) his team could not put away the Aggies. A&M moved the ball successfully all day against the Missouri defense, and Texas A&M's offense is pedestrian at best, ranked 61st in the country. Against the pass is where Missouri really struggles though. Entering that game Texas A&M had only been averaging 163 yards per game through the air. Against Missouri they were able to pass for 247 yards averaging 8.8 yards per attempt! Those are mind boggling numbers for a bad passing team like A&M, one has to wonder what the #16 ranked passing attack of Kansas St will be able to do.
Ok, we've established K-State will move the ball, but the real key in this game is the motivational spot for both of these teams. Missouri has their biggest game of the season coming NEXT week when they play undefeated Kansas. The impact of seeing Nebraska humiliate the Wildcats so easily may allow them to dismiss this game as a win, and that will be a huge mistake. It also adds some substantial value to the line. Kansas is one of the very toughest venues in the Big-12, if not the country to play an away contest. K-State was humiliated last week by Nebraska, it is now their turn to prove that game was a fluke. K-State is also playing with revenge, having lost 41-21 last year in Missouri, the Tigers 1st win in the series following 13 straight losses. Teams that are backed into a corner usually come out fighting, the added motivation of needing a win for a bowl bid will certainly increase the urgency with which the Wildcats play. Why do ranked teams so often stumble the week before their biggest game of the year? It is almost impossible for these young men to NOT look ahead to next week's match-up with Kansas. Somebody may want to ask Ohio St, since they lost straight up to Illinois last week anticipating their rivalry game against Michigan this week.
The line on this game opened at 8 in Vegas, and despite nearly 90% of all wagers coming in on Missouri, the line has gone down to 7.5. At BetCris the line even momentarily went to 6.5! There is not only a high % of wagers on Missouri, but this is also the game on Saturday they have taken the most bets on. Such a high volume of wagers on Missouri and they moved the line against the money, to say we are on the side the books will be rooting for is an understatement! Besides the above stated emotional and situational edges for Kansas St, there are several technical trends which back our play also. Missouri is 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS traveling to K-State (with an average loss by 26 pts). When home dogs these Cats have sharp claws, going 7-2 ATS last 9 tries. Playing at home with conf revenge K-State is also 7-2 ATS. In home finales they are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS. The undefeated Kansas Jayhawks were lucky enough to escape Manhattan with a 6 point win, the Missouri Tigers will not be so fortunate.
Verdict: Kansas St 41 Missouri 31
PLAY 1* UNIT ON K-STATE +7.5
NW (6-5) at ILLINOIS (8-3)
This is an interesting Big 10 match-up between Illinois and NW who will fight it out for possible bowl ramifications. Illinois (8-3 SU & 6-4 ATS) has speed with mobile sophomore quarterback Juice Williams and running back Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall has run for 1,402 yards this season, averaging a whopping 6.0 yards per carry! Led by a career-high four touchdown passes Illinois stunned top-ranked Ohio State 28-21 last Saturday. The Buckeyes had been allowing only 43.2 rushing yards against Big Ten opponents, until Illinois put up 260 last weekend. The fighting Illini also ended Wisconsin's 14-game winning streak, too, then the longest in the nation. Meanwhile, NW (6-5 SU & 4-6 ATS) was stumbling until last weekends win against Indiana and this is their season finale so a win here means a winning record a bowl appearance. The Wildcats have a deadly offense that averages 26 points and 270 yards passing. They had a shocking 48-41 win at Michigan State as the offense rolled up 611 yards. Their pass defense is nothing short of terrible giving up 237 yards and 38 points per game in conference play, but they do have a decent run defense, which will need to be at their best against a very good Illinois team.
We picked up a nice premium selection in on NW last week and I see not need to fade them this week despite the fact that they are playing a superior team. Let?s also not forget that this is a NW team that that actually out-gained Michigan and are still an impressive 8-3 ?in the stats? this season (meaning that they out-yarded their opponents). From a motivational standpoint, NW sits at 6-5 and needs one more win to guarantee a bowl trip, while Illinois has already virtually assured themselves a trip to somewhere good in December after their monumental win last week over then No. 1 Ohio State. The win over Ohio Sate was arguably the biggest win in the last 10 or so years for that program and it is quite possible that Illinois is still celebrating so a flat effort is quite possible. In contrast, NW views the Illinois game as its game of the year and, this year, the Wildcats need a win to get into a bowl game. The Illinois secondary can be exploited, which is very good news for one of the top passing teams in the nation. Look for the Wildcats to come out firing the ball challenging the venerable secondary from the start. Whether out of necessity (Wisconsin) or by design (Michigan), teams that have made sure to not go away from the passing game have been able to hang up big yards against Illinois. Two weeks ago I discussed the return of NW?s star running back Tyrell Sutton. Well through 29 career games, Sutton is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 94.1 rushing yards per career outing. He has scored 28 career touchdowns, 24 rushing and four receiving. For those who unfamiliar with Sutton he is an ultra explosive running back who will further the success of the NW Passing attack one that already ranks 6th in the nation. Fundamentally, the Wildcat offense is one of the few in the country that can keep up some of the elite teams in the nation. From the technical standpoint, it should be noted that NW has had few problems with Illinois recently, winning four in a row SU and covering six of seven. Moreover, favorites who are off a SU win as a +14 underdog spot after game six against winning teams since 1990 are just 2-15 ATS! Do we really need to know anything else? I think not.
Verdict: Illinois 34, NW 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NW +14
OHIO ST (10-1) at MICHIGAN (8-3)
Here we go?lock and load the winner of this contest is the Big 10 champion and gets a birth in the Rose bowl! I absolutely love these rivalry contests and this one means the most to the home underdog so we know from the start we are going to get a very motivated effort from Michigan this weekend. From the very start of the season I was a big supporter of the Michigan team (8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS) who has finally put things together after their terrible start of the season by winning 8 in a row. The shocking 34-32 home loss to two-time defending I-AA champion Appalachian State and a 39-7 loss at home to Oregon are in the past now. The loss to Oregon isn?t as shocking now as we have been able to see just how dangerous that team really is this season. As a result of their recent streak, Michigan is now 5-1 in the Big 10, but are coming off a rather shocking (albeit not surprising loss) at the hands of Wisconson. In that game Michigan played without injured RB Mike Hart (right ankle spraing), and freshman quarterback Ryan Mallett relieved ailing Chad Henne (nagging right shoulder injury) in the first quarter. The main weapon of this balanced offense is their running back, Mike Hart who has missed 3 1/2 games since appearing to injure his right ankle. It should be noted that both Hart and Henne are expected to start in the contest and both are near 100% physically. Meanwhile, their opponent, Ohio State (10-1 SU & 6-4 ATS) is off their first loss of the season, seeing the possibility of playing for a national championship go down the tubes. The Buckeyes have been working in a new quarterback all season in Todd Boeckman (3 interceptions against Illinois Saturday), so this deep and talented defense is carrying the load. The conservative offense averages over 200 yards rushing and passing per game (although they have been destroying Big 10 opposition by a 32-14 average this season!) The defense is allowing 13 points, 175 pass yards, 75 yards rushing (just 2.8 yards per rush), led by line backers James Laurinaitis, Marcus Freeman and junior cornerback Malcolm *******. In the lose to Illinois the Ohio State defense was finally exposed by an elite rushing attack to the tune of 400 yards!
Those who follow me know that I only use the technical?s as a small amount of my overall handicapping ideology, but with that said we do have some good ones to start off this analysis. First we know that Michigan is 6-3 under the total this season and even more impressive 11-3 UNDER against conference opponents over the last two (2) seasons. The fact that Michigan has played under isn?t all that surprising as they traditionally have a very good defense and this year is no exception as they come into this contest with the a defense ranked 21st in the nation in total and scoring defense. Since giving up 331 yards to Oregon, Michigan?s defense has shut down or contained most opposing runners in the Big Ten, as evidenced by yielding 101, 137, 132, and 191 rushing yards to Penn State, Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan State offenses that average 181, 240, 174, and 213, until last weeks 477 put up by Wisconsin. However, it should be noted that last week?s game in Wisconsin had no bearing on the Michigan season. Some experts believe that Michigan has a comparable defense to former BCS No 1 Ohio State who held MSU too just 185 total yards of offense, but then allowed Illinois to put up over 400 as well last weekend. Michigan also held arguably the best rushing attack in the conference in Illinois? running attack to under 140 yards rushing so this is a team that is more then capable in stopping the run (Ohio State gave up 260 against Illinois). The Michigan defense has also kept the passing attack in check as they are allowing under 190 yards passing.
Motivationally, non of the Michigan star players, Henne, Hart and Long have beaten Ohio State and they haven't won a bowl game and this is the game they have wanted all season. The trio of seniors has seniority edges over their Buckeyes? counterparts so experience might be a big factor in a game of this importance. Fundamentally, Michigan has unit-on-unit match-up advantages over Ohio State as the Wolverines are averaging 179 yards rushing and should be able to move the ball against the Buckeyes who were exposed last week on defense. As stated above, the supposedly impenetrable Ohio State secondary gave up four touchdown passes to Juice Williams last week; one of the nation's most inefficient passers. The Buckeyes have faced one great receiving corps this year, Purdue's and gave up 268 yards and a touchdown in the easy win. Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington are playing extremely well and should stretch things out enough to keep the safeties deep. On special teams, it should be noted that Ohio State ranks dead last in country on kick-off returns so a quick score should not be a factor to worry about in this contest. We also have some strong technical data to support the home team as Michigan is an incredible 38-5 SU off a loss in BIG 10 games since 1969! Take those points but you should not need them.
Verdict: Ohio St 21, Michigan 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MICHIGAN +4
Rankings --
5* MY "ONE AND ONLY" GOY (9-1 90% LAST 6 SEASONS)
3* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8) LAST 6 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
2* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY - OVER 66%
1* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
OPINION PLAY: MAY WIN BUT TO WATCH A GAME OR LEAN - 1/2 A UNIT.
looking for
looking for
pro info's 6 star in coll ftball
they have been on fire on there 5 and 6 star plays
thanks
looking for
pro info's 6 star in coll ftball
they have been on fire on there 5 and 6 star plays
thanks
pro info 5 star
pro info 5 star
Sport / Type: NCAAF / Side
Game: New Mexico vs. Utah
Date / Time: Saturday November 17th, 2007 / 5:30PM EST.
TV: Regional
Line: Utah Utes -15 Total: 44.5
Rating: 5* (4% of bankroll)
Selection: Utah Utes
Analysis:
Salt Lake City and Rice-Eccles Stadium will be the site for today?s match up between the hometown Utah Utes and the visiting New Mexico Lobos. Both teams enter this contest off of wins and the end result may be the same but the ?how to? was much different.
Utah is in an excellent situation playing in the second of back-to-back home games and coming in off an easy shut-out win over Wyoming 50 to 0. While the Lobos? are in a potential flat spot coming in off a come from behind win last week by kicking a 43 yard FG on the final play to defeat Colorado State 26 to 23.
A quick look at the schedules of both teams and you can see how Utah has handled the opponents the Lobo?s have either struggled with our lost the game outright. This can be telling this late in the season as we have a gauge with a large sample size that helps determine how both teams respond in different situations.
Utah is 6-0 SU and has won the money in 5 straight games leading up to this contest with New Mexico. Utah QB Brian Johnson?s return to the Utes lineup after suffering an injury to his shoulder has not only been a motivating factor but he has led them to victories.
The real key for this Utah team has been the play of their defense it has been excellent, they are allowing almost a yard per play under what the average is for the teams they have faced to this point in the season. Those types of numbers absolutely translate into ?W?s for Utah. One yard does not sound like much but when you apply that to the entire game, each time your opponent touches the ball on offense it doesn?t take long for it to show on the scoreboard.
This defense held Louisville to 26 yards rushing, San Diego State 62, TCU 94 and Wyoming to only 37 yards overland. This ?D? has held four teams to less than 300 yards of total offense and has not allowed a TD in nine quarters. Not a good sign for a Lobo?s team that is only average on offense at best.
Our TPI (Team Performance Indicator) signals a ?buy? on Utah with a 19.9 point advantage over the Lobos in this game. Our Player Performance Indicator also signals a ?buy? on the Utes with a 20.5 point edge here in this situation.
Technical Support for our selection: NEW MEXICO is 0-6 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 6-0 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons, 50-28 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992, 10-2 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992, 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons, 13-4 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
Situational Support for our selection: Play On NCAA home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after a cover as a double digit favorite, a team winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season, 37-13 ATS last ten seasons. Play Against NCAA road underdogs after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against an opponent after a win by 17 or more points, 46-12 ATS the last five seasons. Play Against NCAA road underdogs off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival against an opponent off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, 34-9 ATS since 1992.
System Support for our selection: College Home Favorites in this spread range off a win in which they scored at least 50 points are 22-6-2 ATS. College home teams playing in their last home game coming off a shut out win and playing with revenge are 12-4-1 ATS.
SELECTION: 5* UTAH UTES 40 NEW MEXICO LOBOS 14
pro info 5 star
Sport / Type: NCAAF / Side
Game: New Mexico vs. Utah
Date / Time: Saturday November 17th, 2007 / 5:30PM EST.
TV: Regional
Line: Utah Utes -15 Total: 44.5
Rating: 5* (4% of bankroll)
Selection: Utah Utes
Analysis:
Salt Lake City and Rice-Eccles Stadium will be the site for today?s match up between the hometown Utah Utes and the visiting New Mexico Lobos. Both teams enter this contest off of wins and the end result may be the same but the ?how to? was much different.
Utah is in an excellent situation playing in the second of back-to-back home games and coming in off an easy shut-out win over Wyoming 50 to 0. While the Lobos? are in a potential flat spot coming in off a come from behind win last week by kicking a 43 yard FG on the final play to defeat Colorado State 26 to 23.
A quick look at the schedules of both teams and you can see how Utah has handled the opponents the Lobo?s have either struggled with our lost the game outright. This can be telling this late in the season as we have a gauge with a large sample size that helps determine how both teams respond in different situations.
Utah is 6-0 SU and has won the money in 5 straight games leading up to this contest with New Mexico. Utah QB Brian Johnson?s return to the Utes lineup after suffering an injury to his shoulder has not only been a motivating factor but he has led them to victories.
The real key for this Utah team has been the play of their defense it has been excellent, they are allowing almost a yard per play under what the average is for the teams they have faced to this point in the season. Those types of numbers absolutely translate into ?W?s for Utah. One yard does not sound like much but when you apply that to the entire game, each time your opponent touches the ball on offense it doesn?t take long for it to show on the scoreboard.
This defense held Louisville to 26 yards rushing, San Diego State 62, TCU 94 and Wyoming to only 37 yards overland. This ?D? has held four teams to less than 300 yards of total offense and has not allowed a TD in nine quarters. Not a good sign for a Lobo?s team that is only average on offense at best.
Our TPI (Team Performance Indicator) signals a ?buy? on Utah with a 19.9 point advantage over the Lobos in this game. Our Player Performance Indicator also signals a ?buy? on the Utes with a 20.5 point edge here in this situation.
Technical Support for our selection: NEW MEXICO is 0-6 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 6-0 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons, 50-28 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992, 10-2 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992, 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons, 13-4 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
Situational Support for our selection: Play On NCAA home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after a cover as a double digit favorite, a team winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season, 37-13 ATS last ten seasons. Play Against NCAA road underdogs after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against an opponent after a win by 17 or more points, 46-12 ATS the last five seasons. Play Against NCAA road underdogs off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival against an opponent off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, 34-9 ATS since 1992.
System Support for our selection: College Home Favorites in this spread range off a win in which they scored at least 50 points are 22-6-2 ATS. College home teams playing in their last home game coming off a shut out win and playing with revenge are 12-4-1 ATS.
SELECTION: 5* UTAH UTES 40 NEW MEXICO LOBOS 14
ATS LOCK
366 7 Georgia
380 7 Wash St.
350 6 N D
1 RR Parlay
344 5 Tex Tech
370 5 Mich
382 4 L Tech
HOOPS
5 No Texas
3 San Diego
ATS FINANCIAL
325 5 Purdue
376 4 Florida St.
345 4 Iowa St.
HOOPS
3 Ohio
3 So Carol
366 7 Georgia
380 7 Wash St.
350 6 N D
1 RR Parlay
344 5 Tex Tech
370 5 Mich
382 4 L Tech
HOOPS
5 No Texas
3 San Diego
ATS FINANCIAL
325 5 Purdue
376 4 Florida St.
345 4 Iowa St.
HOOPS
3 Ohio
3 So Carol
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SOMEONE SAID SCORE...ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE COUNTRY....HAS A GOY TODAY...ANYBODY??
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SOMEONE SAID SCORE...ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE COUNTRY....HAS A GOY TODAY...ANYBODY??